Rick Perry vs World

27 October 2010

A strange sentence

"The polls have been steady for three months or so," [SMU professor Cal] Jillson said, "which suggests that White has made his best case and 45 percent of Texas are impressed with it. But it takes 50 percent-plus-one."

Here are the last poll numbers for White: 43, 42, 36, 43, 42, 39, 42, 38, 40.6, 41, 41.

Those numbers suggest that about 40-41% of people are impressed with White's "best case." In no poll has Bill White hit 45% -- in that timeframe or in the history of the race -- even given that you would expect him to do so occasionally if his number has been above 40% throughout the period of time covered by those polls.

Posted by Evan @ 10/27/10 03:59 AM | Comments (1)

Latest Flores v Edwards poll: 52-40.

In a poll done by former Clinton pollster Mark Penn's firm for The Hill, Republican Bill Flores leads Democrat Chet Edwards 52-40.

10/19-10/21 by Penn Schoen Berland
404 LVs, +/- 4.9% MoE
Flores 52
Edwards 40
Undecided 7

The numbers don't get any better for Edwards in the details. Chet Edwards Fav/Unfav rating is upside down at 45/49, but even worse among independents at 44/51. That's quite a contrast with Bill Flores whose 56/31 Fav/UnFav is about the same among independents at 54/32.

Obama has a 32/66 Job Approval/Disapproval and 25/73 among independents.

Further the numbers show that more Republicans say that A) they won't change their mind and B) that they will definitely vote. More than double the number of Democrats only say that they will "probably" vote -- this close to an election day, someone only saying that they will probably vote is not very likely to make it to the polls.

Posted by Evan @ 10/27/10 03:07 AM | Comments (0)

26 October 2010

Tony Garza overview, AFT/TRS, TX House, Perry getting out the non-Texas vote?

1. Former Ambassador to Mexico Tony Garza offers his overview of the November elections. Pretty good overview from 10,000 feet but it probably underestimates the number of House seats will turnover.

2. Ratcliffe and Fikac in the Chron and SAEN:

Gov. Rick Perry is drowning Democrat Bill White with money, more than doubling the former Houston' mayor's fundraising and spending in the past month as he closes the campaign with a television ad criticizing White over the death of a police officer.

True enough, though I think this would be better contextualized by noting that White made the strategic decision to spend earlier, while Perry made the decision to spend later.

3. The AFT teachers union, which gave $30k to Bill White, is unhappy with the Campos report on TRS. My post on TRS.

4. Perry zings White. Jay Root reports:

Sitting on a pile of cash and a lead in the polls, Republican Gov. Rick Perry is so confident in the final week of the 2010 election that he's begun urging supporters to spread his pro-conservative message to other states.

At Buzzie's BBQ in Kerrville Tuesday, Perry told a boisterous crowd of about 200 to go vote for him and then asked them to call their friends and relatives living outside Texas and urge them to get behind the Republicans.

5. Paul Burka offers his short take on most of the Texas House races. I think he's underrating the potential Republican victories.

Posted by Evan @ 10/26/10 07:00 PM | Comments (0)

Bill White, Houston Police, and Sanctuary Cities

Bill White is described as livid over Perry's ad on Sgt. Johnson. From Kelley Shannon's AP report:

Democrat Bill White accused Republican Gov. Rick Perry on Monday of "shamelessly" exploiting the widow of a Houston police officer who was killed by an illegal immigrant by using her in an ad that blames the former mayor's immigration policies for the death.

Corrie MacLaggan wrote down Officer Johnson's reply:

In Perry's ad, Sgt. Joslyn Johnson, Rodney Johnson's widow and herself a member of the Houston police force, comes down firmly on Perry's side.

She said in an interview Monday that she doesn't share Perry's political party affiliation but that this issue "goes above my beliefs as a Democrat."

In the ad, she says Quintero had been arrested and convicted several times before and had been deported.

She says White supported "sanctuary city policies that made it difficult for officers to safely do their jobs."

"I trust Governor Perry to secure our safety," she says in the ad. "Bill White had his opportunity as mayor of Houston, and he failed."

This is the downside to White's claim that it is a "total fabrication" that Houston is a sanctuary city. General Order 500-5 of the Houston Police Department prohibits officers from inquiring about citizenship status. The Houston Police Officer wanted that order rescinded. Bill White, who is in favor of the policy, refused to even let there be a public debate.

Whether Bill White wants to deny that Houston is a sanctuary city is irrelevant to the fact that the Houston Police Officers are livid about that and have been for some time. [By the way, what does Bill White want to call Houston? A semi-sanctuary city? Mildly sanctuary? It's pretty clear that Houston has different law on the subject than other cities, including Section 287(g) as well as General Order 500-5.] To those of us who lived in Houston while White was mayor, the ad isn't shocking. It's not so much pro-Perry as it is anti-White.

Strangely, the Houston Police were not persuaded by Austin journalists' Politipinions on whether Houston is a sanctuary city.

Posted by Evan @ 10/26/10 06:47 PM | Comments (1)

The ads everyone is talking about

Joslyn Johnson:

Bill White:

Posted by Evan @ 10/26/10 09:38 AM | Comments (0)

The TT internet poll makes standard internet poll mistake

Karl-Thomas Musselman writes:

I've never seen 3rd Party candidates poll this high in Texas. Up to 15% of the vote in the Railroad Commissioner race is potentially tied up between the Libertarian and Green party.

There is zero chance that numbers like this happen on election day. Glass will not be at 8%, and no Libertarian will crack 10%, except where there is no Democrat on the ballot.

He posts these numbers from the YouGov poll:

Perry 50% White 40% Glass 08% Shafto 02%

Lt. Governor
Dewhurst 51% Chavez-Thompson 38% Libertarian 09% Green 02%

Attorney General
Abbott 55% Rodnofsky 35% Libertarian 11%

Comptroller
Combs 51% Libertarian 11% Green 09% Undecided 29%

Land Commissioner
Patterson 50% Uribe 37% Libertarian 12%

Ag Commissioner
Staples 50% Gilbert 37% Libertarian 12%

Railroad Commisioner
Porter 50% Weems 34% Libertarian 10% Green 05%

Those third (and fourth?) party numbers are just laughable, and they illustrate why I don't generally mention or comment on the internet polls. 15% of the vote in the Porter v Weems Railroad Commissioner battle goes Green or Libertarian? No way, no how. 12% of the vote going libertarian in the AG, Land Commish or Ag races? LOL, I don't think even most Libertarian activists are that optimistic.

It's a known problem with these internet polls that they tend to oversample certain types of voters, who are exactly the types who will vote for Libertarian or Green Party candidates. When you don't even attempt to control for that, it's just not a poll that you can take seriously.

Further, previously the TT has followed their internet polls with a series of articles breaking down their internet poll. The problem with that is that subsample results are even more statistically suspicious than the topline results. It really shouldn't be done.

Posted by Evan @ 10/26/10 05:04 AM | Comments (0)

25 October 2010

Bill White with only $500k on hand for the final ad blitz

Between July 1 and September 23, Bill White spent $11.2M while Perry spent $3.9M. The race narrowed a little bit, but not alot. On the other hand, numbers for most Republicans probably improved during the same period, so while the effect wasn't large, there probably was some effect.

Between September 24 to October 23, Perry spent $16.1M and White spent just $6.1M, and the polls have started to widen a little bit.

Overall spending for the cycle was pretty similar, as post-primary Feb-July White spent 3.3M and Perry $3.5M. So until now, White has spent about $20.6M and Perry has spent about $23.5M. Once you factor in the Back to Basics spending, that puts White and Perry at almost exactly the same amount of spending.

Of course, with only $500k left for the final week (Perry has $2M left), White isn't in a good spot to make up 10 points and it's likely someone will want to invest seven figures in him at this point.

Posted by Evan @ 10/25/10 10:58 PM | Comments (0)

Bill White's big donors

I took a quick look at Bill White's big donors ($25k+) from the latest Perry vs White campaign finance reports:

Trial Lawyers
Amber Mostyn 250k
Provost Umphrey 150k
Clark Burnett Love & Lee 100k
John Williams 25k
Sheridan Williams 25k
Caddell and Chapman 25k

Unions
SEIU 300k
AFSCME 50k
AFT 35k
* a bunch of other unions gave smaller 5k-10k amounts

Others
Kase Lawal 50k
Rebecca Moores 50k
North Texas Leadership PAC 100k (David Alameel)
Jonathan Soros 10k -- George Soros' son

If this were a different state, I guess some blogs might have some fun with that last one.

Finally, in the last month both 98 Dem nominee Garry Mauro and 2002 Dem nominee Tony Sanchez gave 10k to Bill White. 2006 nominee Chris Bell? Zero. Amount Chris Bell has given to Bill White's campaign ever? Zero.

I'll try and writeup Perry's big donors as well, although Wayne Slater has already partially done it.

Posted by Evan @ 10/25/10 08:56 PM | Comments (0)

Bill Flores seals the win?, more on Perry's letter-writing, and HW endorsement shocks everyone...not really

1. The NRCC cancelled its reserved airtime in CD17, signalling that they think Chet Edwards is too far behind to have a chance at winning.

Maybe Chet Edwards should claim he voted for McCain, like Gene Taylor (D-MS)?

2. As I mentioned yesterday, Politico:

Just days before Washington state voters decide whether to impose a first-ever state tax on six-figure incomes, Texas Gov. Rick Perry has jumped into the middle of the fray.

With a week to go before the Washington ballot initiative, Perry, a Republican, has taken an unusually aggressive swipe at Gov. Chris Gregoire, a Democrat. Perry sent letters Friday to 90 leading businesses in Washington � including Amazon, Microsoft and Starbucks � inviting them to relocate to Texas, which also has no income tax.

3. George H.W. Bush endorses Perry.

4. Matthew Dowd thinks that Obama's best chance for re-election is if Republicans take the House but Dems barely keep the Senate. Which is the most likely scenario. I more or less concur, though I think it's arguably better for Obama if the GOP takes the Senate too, albeit with only 51 votes.

5. Wayne Slater:

Gov. Rick Perry and challenger Bill White swapped charges over immigration Monday, each accusing the other of failing to keep Texans safe from illegal immigrants and sex offenders crossing the porous border from Mexico.

Perry, a Republican, suggested in a new TV ad that White was partly responsible for the murder of a Houston police officer by an illegal immigrant during a 2006 traffic stop. White, a Democrat, was mayor of Houston at the time.

White blasted the ad, which features the officer's widow. He said the Perry administration botched the record-keeping that would have helped police spot the killer and now is "exploiting shamelessly the grief of a widow" to score political points.

Posted by Evan @ 10/25/10 06:59 PM | Comments (0)