26 October 2014

Van de Putte's alternate reality

Van de Putte sure can spin a reporter from the Washington Post:

"Quite frankly, statewide races in the past have been very complacent about consistently having a program in those Latino communities," said state Sen. Leticia Van de Putte, the Democrats' nominee for lieutenant governor. "We haven't had a race in two decades that has put resources into Latino communities. I am so proud of the strides we have made, but I wish there was so much more."

How quickly Ms. Van de Putte discards the tens of millions that Tony Sanchez put into Latino turnout. Tony Sanchez spent $76 million (over $100 million in 2014 dollars) in 2002. For months, you couldn't go through the east side of Houston without hearing a sound truck blaring messages in Spanish and English. Bill White didn't spend nearly as much, but I recall some Spanish ads that got some heavy airplay from very early in the campaign.

Also, wasn't the whole point of Battleground Texas to consistently have a program to sell liberalism in Latino communities? [Aside from being an enrichment program for Obama's campaign staffers.] Perhaps Texas Latinos just don't like the shoddy liberal product that Texas Democrats keep trying to sell them.

Posted by Evan @ 10/26/14 01:24 PM | Comments (0)        


20 October 2014

Wendy Davis is a Karl Rove plant

Wendy Davis must be a Karl Rove plant.

Remember those days circa 2003-2005 when the left and the Beltway media establishment (but I repeat myself) credited Karl Rove with extraordinary powers? To hear them tell it, he was playing in a league of his own. Every time something bad happened to Dems, lefty bloggers immediately assumed that Karl Rove orchestrated it.

Karl Rove

Wendy Davis's candidacy has been such a disaster for Texas Democrats that you wouldn't blame them if they started to come up with crazy theories like they did a decade ago.

1. Wendy Davis has sucked money out of competitive districts. I'm sure that Steve Mostyn was going to write a few eight figure checks anyway, but there's no doubt that some money that could have gone to competitive races instead came to Texas to fund Obama's fantasy about turning Texas blue.

Plus, in her best chance to make an impression on Texas after a series of disjointed ads, we got the Wendy Davis Meltdown. Such churlishness in a debate recalled a certain Al Gore. Remember: it's all Karl's plan.

2. Wendy Davis is the worst possible candidate imaginable to win Latino swing votes. A white liberal who got rich off of her elected office while gaining liberal notoriety as an abortion absolutist? This could only be the work of the Karl Rove that DailyKos bloggers imagined.

No doubt Davis will still get most of the Latinos who strongly identify as Democrats. But she certainly won't drive turnout from disaffected Democrats. Her primary loss in South Texas counties was historic. She couldn't even get Latinos to vote for her over a no-name in the primary.

In Hidalgo County -- 91% Latino -- Democrats are actually removing her from their advertisements for the Democratic slate!

3. The wheelchair ad sucked all the oxygen out of the room. You know who is angriest about the wheelchair ad? It should be Leticia Van de Putte, because it suffocated any potential chance she had of getting traction. Wendy Davis was already a lost cause, but perhaps with a stroke of genius, Van de Putte could've found the right combination to narrow the race to single digits.

Van de Putte is actually pretty good in front of the camera , when she isn't shamelessly pandering. With the right stroke of luck, maybe she could've grown an inkling of a chance into actual momentum.

Nope. Wendy Davis killed that. Or perhaps it was Karl.

Posted by Evan @ 10/20/14 10:02 PM | Comments (0)        


18 October 2014

If you waste your money on bad political consultants, you deserve to lose

Nancy Sims has a couple of interesting posts up previewing the upcoming Houston mayoral race. They seem pretty accurate to me.

One post about the long-shot candidates caught my eye:

Ben Hall ran against Parker last election and is said to be considering another bite at the apple. We hope he hires different political professionals as he had one of the worst campaigns ever in 2013. He can finance the race though and would still be a contender if he decides to run.

John Weaver and Mark Sanders destroyed Ben Hall's chances to be mayor. It was so obvious that I predicted it beforehand. Hall went from main challenger to also-ran for this election cycle. When you hire a terrible consultant, not only do you waste tens of thousands of dollars, but you ruin your chance to run again.

The market for political consultants is terribly inefficient. First time candidates frequently have no expertise, and thus hire consultants who talk a big game but are terrible at campaigns.

Posted by Evan @ 10/18/14 02:30 PM | Comments (0)        


09 October 2014

It's about time

Response rates to traditional telephone polls keep declining, and opt-in online polls are an inherently biased version of sampling public opinion.

If ballot race tests just went away, would the Republic immediately improve? Probably. [I'm sure Wendy Davis's Yankees agree!]

Microsoft is going to try to use sparse machine learning to replace phone polls:

His goal is to quicken the pace of culling answers and broaden the range of questions. For example, in a series of daily polls of users on Microsoft’s XBox video game console, Rothschild was able to generate forecasts and models using the data and demographic information that closely mirrored the accuracy of poll aggregation.

At least if it proves successful, then I won't get my Twitter feed crowded with the "predictions" of someone who averages polls and then runs a Monte Carlo sim on top?

Posted by Evan @ 10/09/14 10:16 PM | Comments (0)        


02 October 2014

Texas Lyceum poll loses all credibility

The Texas Lyceum poll just took a poll. It included a trial ballot for governor. See screenshot below.

Texas Lyceum poll

Notice that their poll sampled more Democrats than Republicans. Perhaps they thought they were polling in California or in Wendy Davis's native Rhode Island?

Posted by Evan @ 10/02/14 11:21 AM | Comments (0)        



+ Rick Perry vs World
+ About Me

+ Archives

+ Email:
  perryvsworld* at *gmail dot com



All content © Rick Perry vs. World and the respective authors.

Rick Perry vs. World is powered by Nucleus.

Site design and Nucleus customization by Kevin Whited.


+August 2017
+July 2017
+June 2017
+May 2017
+April 2017
+March 2017
+February 2017
+January 2017
+December 2016
+November 2016
+October 2016
+September 2016
+August 2016
+July 2016
+June 2016
+May 2016
+April 2016
+March 2016
+February 2016
+January 2016
+December 2015
+November 2015
+October 2015
+September 2015
+August 2015
+July 2015
+June 2015
+May 2015
+April 2015
+March 2015
+February 2015
+January 2015
+December 2014
+November 2014
+October 2014
+September 2014
+August 2014
+July 2014
+June 2014
+May 2014
+April 2014
+March 2014
+February 2014
+January 2014
+December 2013
+November 2013
+October 2013
+September 2013
+August 2013
+July 2013
+June 2013
+May 2013
+April 2013
+March 2013
+February 2013
+January 2013
+December 2012
+November 2012
+October 2012
+September 2012
+August 2012
+July 2012
+June 2012
+May 2012
+April 2012
+March 2012
+February 2012
+January 2012
+December 2011
+November 2011
+October 2011
+September 2011
+August 2011
+July 2011
+June 2011
+May 2011
+April 2011
+March 2011
+February 2011
+January 2011
+December 2010
+November 2010
+October 2010
+September 2010
+August 2010
+July 2010
+June 2010
+May 2010
+April 2010
+March 2010
+February 2010
+January 2010
+December 2009
+November 2009
+October 2009
+September 2009
+August 2009
+July 2009
+June 2009
+May 2009
+April 2009
+March 2009
+February 2009
+January 2009
+December 2008
+November 2008
+October 2008
+September 2008
+August 2008
+July 2008
+June 2008
+May 2008
+April 2008
+March 2008
+February 2008
+January 2008
+December 2007
+November 2007
+October 2007
+September 2007
+August 2007
+July 2007
+June 2007
+May 2007
+April 2007
+March 2007
+February 2007
+January 2007
+December 2006
+November 2006
+October 2006
+September 2006
+August 2006
+July 2006
+June 2006
+May 2006
+April 2006
+March 2006
+February 2006
+January 2006
+December 2005
+November 2005
+October 2005
+September 2005
+August 2005
+July 2005
+June 2005
+May 2005
+April 2005
+March 2005
+February 2005
+January 2005
+December 2004
+Acton MBA
+Ethereum News
+ICO Calendar
+How to prepare for CFA exams