Rick Perry vs World

24 January 2011

Ugh

Ugh. This John Kelso column picking on Anita Perry not only was in poor taste, but it wasn't funny.

Posted by Evan @ 01/24/11 10:42 PM | Comments (0)

66% pick Dewhurst?

66% of Texas insiders picked David Dewhurst as the next junior Senator from Texas.

Even though I'm firmly in the "conventional wisdom overrates the certainty that David Dewhurst will be the Republican nominee for Senate" camp, if the Texas Tribune had polled me, I'd have picked Dewhurst. He's just too likely to make a runoff at this point not to be the pick. But that could change pretty easily.

Posted by Evan @ 01/24/11 10:31 PM | Comments (0)

21 January 2011

Joe Barton also looks unlikely, Mike McCaul considering

As I predicted, Joe Barton doesn't look likely to run for Senate, según La Loma:

"I'm looking at the race, but I've got to talk to David Dewhurst and I've got to talk it over with my family," Barton told The Ballot Box, adding that he and Dewhurst are "very good friends."

That Dewhurst will run for retiring Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison's (R-Texas) seat is just about a certainty, according to Texas Republicans.

"I recruited him into the Republican Party way back when and we're still very good friends, so I would want to visit with him and talk about it before making a decision," said Barton.

I had never heard that italicized part, but I definitely don't think Barton did Dewhurst any favors by mentioning it now.

Meanwhile, also according to the Hill, Mike McCaul didn't rule out a Senate bid.

Posted by Evan @ 01/21/11 11:29 PM | Comments (0)

20 January 2011

Ron Paul not looking to run for Senate

I initially predicted that Ron Paul "probably won't run," but according to National Journal:

A Senate run "only crosses my mind because people ask me about it," said Paul, whose son and fellow Republican, Rand Paul, was sworn in as Kentucky's junor senator earlier this month. "I don't think it's a real possibility."

Paul probably doesn't want to get too distracted from the fun he's planning to have badgering the Ben Bernanke from his perch as chairman of the subcommittee that oversees the Federal Reserve. Still, while he's not thinking about it now, that's not to say he won't in the future. The filing deadline is about 350 days away.

Posted by Evan @ 01/20/11 03:09 PM | Comments (0)

Jeb Bush on Education

I've never understood why people think Jeb might be persuadable to run in 2012. He sounds as far from a candidate as he could.

Texas connection: unlike his big brother, Jeb was actually born a Texan.

Posted by Evan @ 01/20/11 02:52 PM | Comments (0)

Texas Republican primary poll numbers from PPP

If the 2012 Senate ballot test was essentially just a function of partisan strength and name ID, then these numbers are just name ID. It's an approximate starting point for the race from an out of state pollster, not much else. Still cheers to PPP for polling.

PPP, 1/14-1/16, n=400 subsample, 4.9% +/- sampling error

Greg Abbott 14%
Joe Barton 7%
Ted Cruz 3%
David Dewhurst 23%
Elizabeth Ames Jones 6%
Tom Leppert 3%
Ron Paul 21%
Michael Williams 3%
Roger Williams 1%
Someone else/Undecided 19%

1. As expected, Dewhurst already leads. His name ID is higher than everyone else's, as other parts of the poll make clear. The only two Republicans who primary voters from the entire state can identify are David Dewhurst and Ron Paul.

2. Doesn't look like Greg Abbott is running, especially since Ted Cruz is running.

3. 7% for Joe Barton? Folks who remember his 3rd place 93 Senate run + folks who have or have had him as Congressman? After the BP incident, I doubt he'll run. I considered listing him in my initial 2012 Senate list, but because of BP I decided not to.

4. Before the poll, South Steps predicted that Roger Williams would have "the lowest name ID despite campaigning [for two years]." That looks remarkably prescient.

5. My guess will be that 21% is Ron Paul's high water mark. Rand Paul got lucky in Kentucky to get a single establishment candidate he could run against. On the other hand, if Ron Paul can hold 21%, it's conceivable that enough candidates stay in the race that 21% makes the runoff.

6. Ted Cruz and Michael Williams tied at 3%? I think that's probably better news for Cruz than it is for Williams, who has actually been elected statewide a few times. All the same, the point is that neither has much name ID at the moment...which we already knew.

If even less meaningful Texas presidential primary numbers interest you, then here they are with and without Perry.

Mitch Daniels 3%
Newt Gingrich 17%
Mike Huckabee 24%
Sarah Palin 17%
Ron Paul 10%
Tim Pawlenty 4%
Rick Perry 9%
Mitt Romney 10%
Someone else/Undecided 5%

Mitch Daniels 3%
Newt Gingrich 17%
Mike Huckabee 25%
Sarah Palin 21%
Ron Paul 9%
Tim Pawlenty 5%
Mitt Romney 10%
Someone else/Undecided 8%

Posted by Evan @ 01/20/11 10:20 AM | Comments (0)

19 January 2011

As Texas goes, so goes the nation.

"Where Texas goes today, the rest of the nation goes tomorrow."

Posted by Evan @ 01/19/11 07:36 PM | Comments (0)

Ted Cruz announces for Senate

UPDATE: Ted Cruz for Senate

In a day when Michael Williams is expected to officially announce his resignation from the Railroad Commission, Ted Cruz announced his run for the Senate by way of a conference call for bloggers this morning.

I have to admit, my initial reaction was: outreach for bloggers before press release? But why not, at this point the race is largely about winning the subprimaries. Raising money and getting endorsements. Press releases don't help much with that.

Update: Press release below the jump.

[Read More]

Posted by Evan @ 01/19/11 09:57 AM | Comments (0)

18 January 2011

PPP polls Texas Senate 2012

PPP polled the 2012 Texas Senate race this week. Jan 14th to 16th, 892 voters, 3.3% +/- sampling error

David Dewhurst 50
Chet Edwards 31

David Dewhurst 49
John Sharp 31

Julian Castro 25
David Dewhurst 53

Elizabeth Ames Jones 44
Chet Edwards 31

Elizabeth Ames Jones 44
John Sharp 30

Elizabeth Ames Jones 48
Julian Castro 27

Tom Leppert 46
Chet Edwards 30

Tom Leppert 42
John Sharp 30

Tom Leppert 48
Julian Castro 25

Michael Williams 42
Chet Edwards 31

Michael Williams 42
John Sharp 30

Michael Williams 45
Castro 26

[thoughts being added below]

Can't read too much into this poll except as confirmation of what we were already quite confident of: it will be a very difficult race for Democrats. Whoever wins the GOP primary is extremely likely to be the next Senator from Texas.

It's not terribly shocking that none of these candidates, on either side of the aisle, are terribly well known. Texas is so big that it is extremely difficult to have name ID. That's a big warning to members of the US House of Representatives or of the Texas Legislature. Of the seven people tested, six of those folks have unknowns over 50%! Even after 8 years as Lt Guv, Dewhurst is at 38% not sure whether they have a favorable or unfavorable opinion.

Julian Castro polls at 7% favorable, 28% unfavorable and 65% unknown. If you thought I was harsh questioning whether he deserves the nickname boy wonder. . . perhaps he will deserve it in the future, but he doesn't yet.

So here are my takeaways from this poll:

1. Right now, this seat in the safe GOP camp, barring Texas Republicans deciding to nominate Christine O'Donnell.

2. Name ID, Name ID, Name ID

3. PPP put Julian Castro on the ballot to test how an unknown Latino Dems tests vis a vis Anglo Dem. Anglo Dem polls better. Wouldn't put too much stock in this particular result, but I wouldn't put much stock in the Dem gameplan (nominate someone with a Spanish last name and we win!) of the last decade either.

Posted by Evan @ 01/18/11 03:09 PM | Comments (1)

17 January 2011

On sugar daddies

Right Side of Austin writes:

During the Texas Republican Governor's primary two anonymous political blogs were the toast of the capitol crowd, Rick vs Kay and Rick Perry vs The World.

Any guesses on who the anonymous bloggers are and the sugar daddies they are supporting?

I was going to let my wife respond to tell you exactly how much money this blog makes, but she's out shopping at NeimanMarcus with the credit cards of all those sugar daddies that support this blog.

Posted by Evan @ 01/17/11 06:26 PM | Comments (2)

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