PPP polls Texas Senate 2012

PPP polled the 2012 Texas Senate race this week. Jan 14th to 16th, 892 voters, 3.3% +/- sampling error

David Dewhurst 50
Chet Edwards 31

David Dewhurst 49
John Sharp 31

Julian Castro 25
David Dewhurst 53

Elizabeth Ames Jones 44
Chet Edwards 31

Elizabeth Ames Jones 44
John Sharp 30

Elizabeth Ames Jones 48
Julian Castro 27

Tom Leppert 46
Chet Edwards 30

Tom Leppert 42
John Sharp 30

Tom Leppert 48
Julian Castro 25

Michael Williams 42
Chet Edwards 31

Michael Williams 42
John Sharp 30

Michael Williams 45
Castro 26

[thoughts being added below]

Can't read too much into this poll except as confirmation of what we were already quite confident of: it will be a very difficult race for Democrats. Whoever wins the GOP primary is extremely likely to be the next Senator from Texas.

It's not terribly shocking that none of these candidates, on either side of the aisle, are terribly well known. Texas is so big that it is extremely difficult to have name ID. That's a big warning to members of the US House of Representatives or of the Texas Legislature. Of the seven people tested, six of those folks have unknowns over 50%! Even after 8 years as Lt Guv, Dewhurst is at 38% not sure whether they have a favorable or unfavorable opinion.

Julian Castro polls at 7% favorable, 28% unfavorable and 65% unknown. If you thought I was harsh questioning whether he deserves the nickname boy wonder. . . perhaps he will deserve it in the future, but he doesn't yet.

So here are my takeaways from this poll:

1. Right now, this seat in the safe GOP camp, barring Texas Republicans deciding to nominate Christine O'Donnell.

2. Name ID, Name ID, Name ID

3. PPP put Julian Castro on the ballot to test how an unknown Latino Dems tests vis a vis Anglo Dem. Anglo Dem polls better. Wouldn't put too much stock in this particular result, but I wouldn't put much stock in the Dem gameplan (nominate someone with a Spanish last name and we win!) of the last decade either.

Posted by Evan @ 01/18/11 03:09 PM

 
 

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Run Sharp, Run!

Posted by sucka @ 01/18/11 03:44 PM


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