Texas Republican primary poll numbers from PPP

If the 2012 Senate ballot test was essentially just a function of partisan strength and name ID, then these numbers are just name ID. It's an approximate starting point for the race from an out of state pollster, not much else. Still cheers to PPP for polling.

PPP, 1/14-1/16, n=400 subsample, 4.9% +/- sampling error

Greg Abbott 14%
Joe Barton 7%
Ted Cruz 3%
David Dewhurst 23%
Elizabeth Ames Jones 6%
Tom Leppert 3%
Ron Paul 21%
Michael Williams 3%
Roger Williams 1%
Someone else/Undecided 19%

1. As expected, Dewhurst already leads. His name ID is higher than everyone else's, as other parts of the poll make clear. The only two Republicans who primary voters from the entire state can identify are David Dewhurst and Ron Paul.

2. Doesn't look like Greg Abbott is running, especially since Ted Cruz is running.

3. 7% for Joe Barton? Folks who remember his 3rd place 93 Senate run + folks who have or have had him as Congressman? After the BP incident, I doubt he'll run. I considered listing him in my initial 2012 Senate list, but because of BP I decided not to.

4. Before the poll, South Steps predicted that Roger Williams would have "the lowest name ID despite campaigning [for two years]." That looks remarkably prescient.

5. My guess will be that 21% is Ron Paul's high water mark. Rand Paul got lucky in Kentucky to get a single establishment candidate he could run against. On the other hand, if Ron Paul can hold 21%, it's conceivable that enough candidates stay in the race that 21% makes the runoff.

6. Ted Cruz and Michael Williams tied at 3%? I think that's probably better news for Cruz than it is for Williams, who has actually been elected statewide a few times. All the same, the point is that neither has much name ID at the moment...which we already knew.

If even less meaningful Texas presidential primary numbers interest you, then here they are with and without Perry.

Mitch Daniels 3%
Newt Gingrich 17%
Mike Huckabee 24%
Sarah Palin 17%
Ron Paul 10%
Tim Pawlenty 4%
Rick Perry 9%
Mitt Romney 10%
Someone else/Undecided 5%

Mitch Daniels 3%
Newt Gingrich 17%
Mike Huckabee 25%
Sarah Palin 21%
Ron Paul 9%
Tim Pawlenty 5%
Mitt Romney 10%
Someone else/Undecided 8%

Posted by Evan @ 01/20/11 10:20 AM


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