Rick Perry vs World

08 February 2011

Will David Dewhurst really run for Senate?

In the discussion of who will succeed Kay Bailey Hutchison in the US Senate, this might be the most overlooked fact: in November 2012, David Dewhurst will be 67. It will affect whether he runs for the Senate or waits for a shot at 1010 Colorado. And if he runs for the Senate, it'll be an unspoken reason some don't pick h im.

So, Senator or Governor? Put yourself in the Lt Guv's shoes. He's been Lt Guv for almost a decade. He's the leader of the Texas Senate, one of the people who is always making decisions about what becomes law. By contrast, in the US Senate, he'll be one occupant of 100 seats. He won't have a single day of tenure and virtually zero input as to what bills get addressed and what is in those bills. As a former CIA operative, he might be able to carve out a policy niche on the Intelligence Committee, but other than that he won't have much input into legislation until after 75. As he reaches 80 years old, he'll get to decide whether he wants to run for the third term where he'll finally have a shot at a chairmanship. Does he want to spend his 9th decade sitting in committee hearings?

Of course, his age is also an unspoken element among some Texas Republicans. Texas has done a pretty good job of electing senators who accumulated seniority that they used on behalf of Texas. In recent history, we have: Lloyd Bentsen 22 years, John Tower 24 years, Phil Gramm 18 years, Kay Bailey Hutchison 19 years, and now John Cornyn has already accumulated almost a decade himself.

Again, Senator or Governor? In most of the scenarios where Dewhurst runs for Senate and loses, it's very hard to imagine him rebounding back to winning a gubernatorial primary in 2014. Yet, if he waits, he will be the favorite in 2014. If he wins, he'll be the leader of the executive branch, not a mere voice of 100. He'll set the agenda immediately.

Finally, I think Dewhurst is more likely to win a gubernatorial primary than a senatorial primary, though he is the most likely candidate for both. Call it 10-15% more likely for governor. State issues are less polarizing. He won't have to run as far to the right. Furthermore, he knows state issues much better now than he knows federal issues.

So far we all think he's going to run, but for all these reasons, I think the smarter play is for Dewhurst not to run for Senate.

Posted by Evan @ 02/08/11 05:31 PM | Comments (0)

RGA Executive Director Phil Cox profile

Roll Call profiles Phil Cox, Rick Perry's pick to lead the Republican Governor's Association.

Posted by Evan @ 02/08/11 08:14 AM | Comments (0)

Watch the State of the State

At 11am, Governor Perry is giving the State of the State address. You can watch it here.

Posted by Evan @ 02/08/11 08:04 AM | Comments (0)

05 February 2011

US Senate candidates in their own words

As part of deciding who to support in the race for senate seat held by KBH, I've spent a fair amount of time watching youtube videos of the candidates. (Update, as per March: I am supporting Ted Cruz) In alphabetical order:

Ted Cruz

David Dewhurst

Elizabeth Ames Jones

Tom Leppert

Michael Williams

Roger Williams -- I had a hard time finding videos for Roger Williams, because there are quite a few folks with the name Roger Williams on YouTube

Make sure to skip ahead to the 6:20 mark, where Roger Williams begins to speak.

Posted by Evan @ 02/05/11 04:57 PM | Comments (0)

04 February 2011

Matt Dowd on Tea Party and Bachmann

I thought Matt Dowd's recent column on Michelle Bachmann's SOTU response was insightful. Key paragraphs:

As I watched Rep. Michele Bachmann's "nonofficial" response to President Obama's State of the Union address and the flurry of criticism that followed, I was reminded of the recent book The Starfish and the Spider: The Unstoppable Power of Leaderless Organizations by Ori Brafman and Rod Beckstrom. The gist is that organizations that are decentralized, fluid, and non-hierarchical, and that operate organically with many tentacles (like a starfish) can have great success at times in history. A starfish can lose one tentacle and grow a new one, and even the severed tentacle can grow an entire new body.

She has begun to label herself as a tea party leader (if not the leader), and last week she gave what she billed as the tea party response to the president's State of the Union. Attractive, well-spoken at times, disciplined, hardworking, and a true believer, Bachmann has nonetheless frequently come across as not ready for prime time or, how shall I say it, bizarre. Her recent showing did nothing to dispel that narrative, and her attempt to become a credible spokeswoman suffered because of it.

More important, though, the tea party took a hit. As the movement begins to operate as a spider organization with a very visible leader (losing its starfish advantages), it risks being directly opposed and damaged. Although Bachmann got tons of publicity, she did the tea party no favors by trying to assume its leadership.

Dowd ends his column by commenting that wins the 2012 Republican nod will probably be the most "starfish" organization, with de-centralized power. I hope he decides to write his next column delineating why he thinks that, because I don't think anyone would call Obama 08 or Bush 04 as de-centralized.

Posted by Evan @ 02/04/11 03:20 PM | Comments (0)

Craig James still talking about running

Graham Hunter on the D mag blog:

ESPN college football analyst Craig James, who's weighing a run for Kay Bailey Hutchison's senate seat, says his role in the firing of Texas Tech football coach Mike Leach won't hurt him politically -- even in the heart of Red Raiders country.

Asked when he'd make a decision about jumping into the Republican senate primary, James said, "I've got to analyze it. I'm thinking about it. I'll announce [my decision] sooner rather than later."

My guess it that James wasn't popular in Lubbock when he caused Mike Leach to be ousted, but that he's even less popular after Tech went 8-5 without Leach. On the other hand, in a multi-way field, being polarizing can work for you.

My guess would be that James -- who serves on TPPF's board -- doesn't announce, but we'll see.

By the way, am I the only one who thinks that Craig James frequently looks like former senator Kyle Janek in pictures? Add that to Chris Fowler sometimes looking Rick Perry-esque.

Posted by Evan @ 02/04/11 02:51 PM | Comments (0)

Ron Paul would be pretty low on my list of likely winners

I go away for a week on an internet-free vacation, and I come back and it appears that Paul Burka has suggested that Ron Paul is the frontrunner for the Senate.

I couldn't disagree with this more. Dr. Paul has a fairly certain ceiling at a certain percent. Also, can he really win a runoff? Not so much. He's not the frontrunner. I'd say his chances of winning the seat are under 10%, regardless of who else enters the race.

Posted by Evan @ 02/04/11 02:25 PM | Comments (0)

27 January 2011

Posting should be very sparse for a week or so

Not that this is uncommon.

Posted by Evan @ 01/27/11 09:11 AM | Comments (0)

26 January 2011

Senate posts roundup

* Michael Williams will announce his candidacy tomorrow at a Texas Tribune event.

* My TexasTribune column is currently 10th in most viewed. If you haven't clicked the recommend button over there, I would be appreciative if you did. Shoot me an email if you do: perryvsworld -at- gmail

* Via Jason Embry, it doesn't look like Elizabeth Ames Jones got a large crowd at her Austin announcement. Not a good sign, though it's very early and not a big deal yet. It's not as bad as being a sitting senator and getting less than 20 people to your long-awaited announcement in your hometown.

* Lawrence Person goes through the starting campaign finance balances for Republicans and Democrats running for the Senate, according to FEC reports. I didn't doublecheck the numbers but they all look right.

* South Steps isn't a fan of a few of the GOP Senate contenders: part 1, part 2, part 3.

Posted by Evan @ 01/26/11 05:10 PM | Comments (0)

25 January 2011

Trib column on Dewhurst vs the field

Best analysis of the Texas GOP Senate primary I have read so far. I'll try to comment more later.

Posted by Evan @ 01/25/11 02:00 PM | Comments (1)

[Previous 10 Entries] [Next 10 Entries]

SITE MENU

+ Rick Perry vs World
+ About Me

+ Archives

+ Email:
perryvsworld* at *gmail dot com

ADVERTISING

SYNDICATION

DISCLAIMER

Rick Perry vs. World is powered by Nucleus.

Site design and Nucleus customization by Kevin Whited.