Rick Perry vs World

29 August 2006

Do you feel special?

Gov. Perry called a special election today for the seats of DeLay, Luna, and Madla. Congress, state house, and state senate, respectively.

Is it good for Shelley's quixotic write-in bid? Bad? You could argue either way. Lots of folks have. Kronberg saw it as a cheap political ploy by the Governor. Kuffner also thinks it helps Shelley, whereas Chris Elam and Texas 22 Greg think it hurts Shelley.

I don't know. Maybe. There're some facts that fit that opinion, but now Shelley also has to explain to everyone that they have to vote for her twice. Write-ins only have a chance when it's an uber-super high-profile campaign. So the degree that this barely boosts the profile of the race, then maybe it increases Shelley's chances.

Shelley should probably win the special if it's her versus Lampson. If the point is just to lay groundwork to knock off Lampson in 2008 (or to make him spend money), then I guess the guv could've done it for that reason. But there's also the possibility that Lampson will win the special because Shelley can't raise enough money.

I still say this (the general election, not the special) has only about a 5% chance of being won by Shelley, and that's being generous.

I'm slightly frustrated that I keep wasting time talking about this race.

Posted by Evan @ 08/29/06 09:48 PM | Comments (0)

More CD23

Stuff that's come in on CD23 recently.

1. The FEC has ruled this to be a new cycle. So each candidate can accept up to $2100 from any donor. If/when the millionaires amendment is triggered, then that amount will go up to $6300 from any donor.

2. Lukin Gilliland doesn't live in the district. No word on whether he'll move into the district for the campaign or if he's elected.

3. Ciro Rodriguez put out a Stan Greenberg poll showing:

Bonilla 44%
Rodriguez 24%
Gallegos 11%
Albert Uresti 7%
Richard Perez 3%
Rick Bolanos 1%
Virgil Yanta 1%

Hat tip to Paul Burka and Charles Kuffner.

If you're keeping track at home, that's 47% for Dems and 44% for Bonilla. Of course, that's somewhat akin to polling George W. Bush vs. John Kerry, John Edwards, Wesley Clark, Dennis Kucinich, Al Sharpton, Joe Lieberman, and Howard Dean. In both cases, the Democrats will get more % of the vote.

I should mention that the poll was taken before some folks (like Lukin Gilliland) announced, and before others decided to stay out. So some of the folks shown aren't running (particularly Gallegos, who I'm sure was put in the poll partly to bring Bonilla's numbers down a little so that the gap between Rodriguez and Bonilla wasn't as large...savvy polling, Greenberg) and Gilliland isn't guaged. But then, Gilliland probably wouldn't have polled much anyway, as he hasn't had a chance to boost his name ID.

All this poll really says is that Dems have a very decent chance at getting into the runoff. But we already knew that.

Posted by Evan @ 08/29/06 09:31 PM | Comments (0)

Interview with Lt. Governor Ben Barnes, part 1

Here's a transcript of my interview with Lt. Gov. Ben Barnes. This is part 1 of 3.

We talked about a month ago, but for various reasons I decided not to post it until now.

His book is Barn Building, Barn Burning. I read it, enjoyed it, and recommend it.

One more thing: I wouldn't guarantee that this transcription is perfect. Some of the exact words used here and there might be slightly off. If you're a pedant, I plan on posting the audio after I've posted the transcripts, so you'll have an opportunity to listen to the source.

Part One below the jump.

[Read More]

Posted by Evan @ 08/29/06 03:41 PM | Comments (0)

CQ changes ranking on CD22

CQ has finally changed its classification of the CD22 Nick Lampson vs. Shelley Sekula-Gibbs (write in) from No Clear Favorite to Leans Democratic.

Gee, you think? This race doesn't just "Lean Democratic." If this only "Leans Democratic," then surely Katherine Harris must only be in a "Leans Democratic" race against Nelson in Florida, right?

Wrong. In CQ parlance, it's "Safe Democrat." Or at least "Democrat Favored."

The only reason I can think of why CQ is playing it so conservative? They're too inside-the-Beltway and afraid to look foolish.

Posted by Evan @ 08/29/06 06:05 AM | Comments (0)

28 August 2006

Latest Zogby Interactive

I'm not a fan of Zogby Interactive polls (do a search, you'll find I've written about this for at least a year and a half).

Here's the general speech: we have no real track record of their accuracy, and their methodology raises questions. It's not that I'm against technology in polling. After all, automated polls are reliable. I just don't trust Zogby online polls.

Anyway, despite misgivings, here's the latest online poll numbers:

Perry 34.8
Bell 23.1
Friedman 22.7
Strayhorn 9.6

This is actually pretty similar to the last Zogby online poll, which had Perry 38, Bell 21, Friedman 21, Strayhorn 11.

So Zogby's sample hasn't changed too terribly much.

Posted by Evan @ 08/28/06 08:28 PM | Comments (0)

Chris Bell on Kinky Friedman

Tucked away in a Clay Robison Sunday column is a very interesting bit:

Bell's campaign, which has been collecting Kinky's quotes, believes the quipster's conservative viewpoints contradict those of his own strongest supporters.

An internal Bell campaign poll indicates Friedman's strongest base — a 51 percent favorable rating to 25 percent unfavorable — is among Anglo liberals, the type of people who normally would be expected to support Bell and who the Democrat desperately needs.

"He (Friedman) has stated contempt for a lot of the people who are supporting him," said Bell spokesman Jason Stanford.

Considering that Friedman has more unfavorables than favorables among the general populace, this is an interesting bit indeed.

Robison's column is about Friedman's off-color, un-PC remarks. It can be inferred that Bell's campaign fed Robison a list of quotes. The Bell campaign is in a tough place. They can't consolidate the Democratic base without white liberals, but lots of those liberals are flirting with voting for Kinky. Unfortunately for Bell, since Kinky isn't a politician, he manages to get a pass for un-PC statements that might sink other candidates.

Posted by Evan @ 08/28/06 07:54 PM | Comments (3)

List of folks who filed in CD23

August Beltran (D-San Antonio)
Rick Bolanos (D-El Paso)
Henry Bonillia (R-San Antonio)
Adrian DeLeon (C-Carrizo Springs)
Luke Gilliland (D-San Antonio)
Ciro Rodriguez (D-San Antonio)
Craig Stephens (I-San Antonio)
Albert Uresti (D-San Antonio)

Posted by Evan @ 08/28/06 07:37 PM | Comments (0)

Media news over the weekend

Cheers to the Statesman's Corrie MacLaggan for trying to do a substantive piece about health care policy and the gubernatorial candidates positions on it. The lede:

Here's Gov. Rick Perry's perspective: Texas children are safer today than a year ago, thanks to Child Protective Services reforms; more children are covered by public health insurance than in 1999; and the state is giving low-income Texans more ways to apply for help while saving taxpayers money.

Here's the reality, according to Perry's three main gubernatorial challengers: the privatization of public assistance enrollment is a nightmare; children are being recklessly dropped from public insurance programs; and the Child Protective Services reforms didn't go far enough.

The Statesman also had commentary by Gardner Selby noting that Strayhorn wasn't always so cozy with trial lawyers:

Strayhorn warned in June 1996 that her challenger for a Texas Railroad Commission seat was a personal-injury trial lawyer. Strayhorn, then a Republican commissioner, wrote supporters that Democrat Hector Uribe "never saw a loophole for his fellow trial lawyers he didn't want to create, an expansion of social spending he didn't favor, or a tax bill he didn't like."

Now, as an independent gubernatorial candidate, Strayhorn has accepted more than $1 million from trial lawyers, with most of the money coming from John Eddie Williams and Joseph Jamail of Houston and Walter Umphrey of Beaumont.

The lawyers favor Strayhorn over GOP Gov. Rick Perry, who has championed changes in law intended to whittle lawsuits including medical malpractice cases. And they're obviously shrugging off Strayhorn's past positioning, including her anti-Uribe letter slamming lawyers eight times in 22 paragraphs.

...

Public Justice's Craig McDonald suggested that just because Strayhorn's fundraising posture has flipped, she's not necessarily a hypocrite. Then again, "those types of seemingly contradictory actions become fodder for your opponents to point fingers at you that you have no solid convictions."

Craig McDonald goes soft on a political candidate instead of bashing them? Very odd.

Then, most of the papers around the state had some version of this story:

North Texas utility's political action committee gave $5,000 to Gov. Rick Perry's campaign last fall, only a few weeks after the governor had signed an executive order to speed up the state permitting process for coal-fired power plants.

Additionally, the retired chairman of the company, Dallas-based TXU, gave Perry $2,000 the day the order was signed, Oct. 27, and another $25,000 in April.

TXU, a significant source of political funding for Perry over the years, wants to build 11 new coal-burning units, primarily in East and Central Texas, a proposal that has drawn fire from environmentalists who fear increased air pollution.

The fast-tracking of the permits and the financial contributions also were criticized Friday by Perry's Democratic opponent, Chris Bell, who said the governor was unduly influenced by "polluters who write the big campaign checks."

Perry spokesman Robert Black said the change in the permitting process doesn't reduce environmental safeguards but simply trims six months or longer off the year that it can take administrative law judges to complete a contested case.

This strikes me as a normal media "we don't like money in politics" story. Considering that Texas has some problems with its electricity production and grid, speeding up the permitting process sounds reasonable.

And last, tax appraisal reform commission chair Tom Pauken has an editorial in the Fort Worth Star-Telegram arguing that the commission's work shouldn't be pre-judged.

I hope they talk to some good economists and think through incentives on all sides.

Posted by Evan @ 08/28/06 07:35 PM | Comments (0)

Bushies for McCain

The Washington Post Magazine profiles McCain. They certainly aren't the first, but it is part of a general trend. While still relatively complimentary, the tenor of McCain media coverage is now he's just a politician. Either way, here's the Texas angle:

"You're dealing with people who are professionals," says a senior Republican official with close ties to the president. "Everybody in Bush world understands the most important legacy this president will leave is in dealing with the war on terror with moral clarity. And there's been no more steadfast and articulate proponent of that central policy goal than John McCain."

I'll give you two guesses as to who the senior Republican official is. I'll bet the person is either from Texas or Maryland.

Anyway, it's interesting to me (and topical to the blog) because it further suggests that the Bushies and thus Texans are going to largely jump on board the McCain campaign.

Posted by Evan @ 08/28/06 05:14 PM | Comments (0)

New Orleans trip report

On the drive over to New Orleans, I recorded a podcast that I may or may not post. It was a very spur of the moment idea. Upon arrival, I checked into the W New Orleans -- to see how the other half lives -- on points. The W wasn't too impressive; I've been to nicer Westins and Sheratons. The W was just overpriced and underwhelming. Service wasn't great, and I think I prefer classy to the W's trendiness.

General Noise was good, and had a few songs I hadn't heard before. You should check them out.

On Saturday, we went and toured the Ninth Ward to see what the damage was like a year later. There was still plenty of trash strewn about, and most of the houses looked unlivable. On the other hand, compared to videos my parents brought back from Mississippi, the damage was much less visually striking. In Mississippi, everything was pretty much just flat out leveled. By contrast, in New Orleans most of the houses were still standing. In fact, churches were the large majority of collapsed buildings that I saw. I think that part of this is because we were in the Upper Ninth Ward and Eastern New Orleans, not in the hardest hit Lower Ninth Ward. I don't think we saw many watermarks above six or seven feet. Pretty much every house had TFW (toxic flood water) spraypainted on it, with a date. So you could figure out where the water was on that date, which was usually pretty close to the watermark.

Although there were some people in the streets, the areas I saw looked largely untouched post-Katrina. There were a few rebuilding projects (several of which were Habitat for Humanity), but by and large appeared to be fairly deserted. We saw quite a few military police and accompanying Humvees more than we saw police, which surprised me.*

As for the touristy spots, I took a walk down Bourbon Street. I'm guessing it wasn't as packed as it would have been two years ago, but it was more or less the same. The difference was on other French Quarter streets like Royal, Dauphine and Decatur, which were all dead even on weekend nights.

So that's what I saw. It's definitely something you need to see for yourself to understand, I think.

UPDATE: Oh, and on the drive back I started feeling sick for the first time in years. Fortunately, my body feels slightly better today.

* Only saw military police in the 9th Ward.

Posted by Evan @ 08/28/06 04:10 PM | Comments (0)

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