Rick Perry vs World

25 August 2006

Out of town

I'm out of town this weekend to New Orleans to hear my friend's band play a show.

So I'd be very surprised if I post this weekend.

Posted by Evan @ 08/25/06 02:57 PM | Comments (0)

Big endorsements for Edwards

Democratic incumbent Chet Edwards (CD17, Waco) received two endorsements from the right-leaning US Chamber of Commerce and the NFIB. The two represent large and small businesses, respectively.

Posted by Evan @ 08/25/06 06:00 AM | Comments (0)

24 August 2006

Tele town hall

Kronberg catches up to the trend:

We are not in the business of touting new companies or ventures, but a technology is emerging out of Washington that has potentially profound implications for elected officials, campaigns and even commercial marketing.

Imagine being able to dial up 45,000 households in a half-hour and inviting them to participate in a town hall meeting while sitting on the phone at home.

Congressman Kay Granger (R-Ft. Worth) has now conducted two of these town hall meetings.

Politicians have actually been using this technology for about six months. Dan Lungren out in California was the first, but it's caught on like fire since then.

Apparently Granger is the first in Texas to use it. I thought I remembered another Texan using it first, but I can't immediately find proof of that. It'd be surprising to me if nobody has used it until now, but then many politicians are risk-averse when it comes to adapting to technology.

UPDATE: I don't know if he was the first Texas politican, but Republican Congressman John Carter (TX 31, Williamson County) has already used it at least once.

UPDATE 2: Dr. Michael Burgess (TX 26, DFW/Denton area) has used it too.

UPDATE 3: Mike Conaway (TX 11, Midland) did one back in May.

Posted by Evan @ 08/24/06 05:02 PM | Comments (0)

Another Henry Bonilla challenger in CD23

Lukin Gilliland announced for Congress today as another Democratic challenger to Henry Bonilla. Gilliland has hired Democratic political operative Kelly Fero and has announced that he will contribute $500K to the race. He joins former Democratic Congressman Ciro Rodriguez in the race.

~~Interestingly, almost exactly three years ago to this day, Gilliland gave Henry Bonilla $250*.~~ Gilliland has also given Ciro Rodriguez money -- at least five times in the last few years, for a total of $2000. Gilliland has been a fairly consistent contributor over the past few years to Democrats running for president (Edward, Kerry, Clark) and to Dem congressional candidates, as well as several sizable soft money donations. So he'll have to explain why he's running against two candidates that were previously worth donating to.

Ramifications:

1. Runoff more likely. Gilliland looks like a serious candidate. He's got money and he's willing to use it. He's hired a well-known Democratic consultant, which gives an imprimatur of being a serious candidate. But Rodriguez is a former congressman, with mail lists and contacts. He should be able to raise money himself, although his fundraising against Cuellar was mediocre until liberal blogs started hyping him in January 2006.

But with two Democratic candidates spending money, it seems more likely that they'll be able to aggregate 50% of the vote than with just one Democratic candidate against Bonilla.

2. Millionaires amendment. For US House races, when an opposing candidate contributes $350K of his own money, then the Millionaires Amendment of the McCain Feingold bill (I refuse to call it BCRA) is triggered and two things happen: (1) The increased limit for contributions by individuals is three times the applicable limit. (2) The national and State party committees may make unlimited coordinated expenditures on behalf of the candidate.

So Bonilla and Rodriguez will be able to raise up to $6300 per donor through November. And the NRCC/RNC/RPT and DCCC/DNC/TDP can throw money around with abandon.

On the whole, this doesn't really appear likely to change Bonilla's chances too much as of right now. I believe I estimated Bonilla's re-election chances at 75% recently, and I see no reason to change my estimate. This would all change if Gilliland decides he's willing to spend a few million on the race, (or the DCCC decides it wants to invest heavily in the race, but I think that Rahm Emmanuel will probably believe he has a better return on his investment elsewhere, especially if there's a self-funder). Then the race changes substantially. But the most likely scenario in November appears to be something like 50% Bonilla, 30%ish Rodriguez/Gilliland, and 20%ish Rodriguez/Gilliland. If Bonilla has to go to a runoff, he'd be a pretty good favorite under that scenario.

* It's possible that Gilliland's father gave this money -- his father appears to be a Republican donor -- but the address listed is the same as Gilliland used for his numerous other donations. I have an email in to Kelly Fero to find out.

UPDATE: Kelly Fero says that it is his father. Post is appropriately struck-through.

Full press release below the jump.

[Read More]

Posted by Evan @ 08/24/06 03:33 PM | Comments (1)

No Texans on the ticket

Dallas Morning News' Carl Leubsdorf has a column today on how Texas doesn't have a presidential candidate and won't decide who is on the ticket:

For the first time in a half-century, Texas looms as a nonplayer in the 2008 presidential race.

Barring an unlikely vice presidential selection, the state has no candidates for either national ticket. The strongly Republican tilt of recent years means Democrats are unlikely to spend much time and money contesting the state's 34 electoral votes.

All of this marks a dramatic change for Texas over the prevailing practice of the past 50 years. Four candidates with strong Texas ties – Dwight Eisenhower, Lyndon Johnson and the two George Bushes – have won the presidency, Lloyd Bentsen ran for vice president, and every election saw at least one Texan in a major role.

In fact, 2008 would be the first presidential campaign year since 1952 in which there won't be a single Texan serving as a major player, either as a presidential or a vice presidential candidate, or in the way the late John Connally helped Richard Nixon win the 1972 race.

Other than that, the only potential factor that could add to the state's long list of candidates would be if the 2008 GOP nominee picked a Texan, most likely Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, as his vice presidential running mate.

Perhaps it didn't come across that clearly from the excerpts, but Leubsdorf's tone struck me as slightly sensationalist....almost an "oh no! Texas is losing its national influence" sentiment.

No, we don't have a presidential contender this year, but so what? That's because we have a Texan in the White House right now. In presidential politics, success does not beget success. Americans don't want any particular state to perpetually occupy the White House. George W. Bush is very closely identified with Texas, so it is very unlikely we'll have a Texan on either ticket this year. That's just how these things work.

And we've never really had any influence in the past few decades over who the nominees are, so why is it surprising that we don't this election cycle? Although several states have recently managed to encroach on New Hampshire and Iowa's domain as presidential kingmakers, Texas has never really put forth much of an effort into having a say on the parties' nominees.

So yeah, we won't have a Texan on the ticket in '08. But that's not a big deal. Or a surprise.

Posted by Evan @ 08/24/06 02:01 PM | Comments (3)

22 August 2006

Chron/SAEN Austin bureau merger pays off

I'm not a huge fan of media mergers. They often lead to less competition and less trolling around government for stories.

But, the recent merger of the Austin bureaus of the Chron and the SAEN has meant that Peggy Fikac has been frequently updating the Chron's previously sparse Texas Politics blog. Yay for Fikac.

Posted by Evan @ 08/22/06 05:03 PM | Comments (1)

SciGuy interview John Culberson on nanotech research

Chronicle SciGuy Eric Berger has a podcast interview of Congressman John Culberson about nanotechnology. Here is the direct link. I recommend it, especially because it's only about twenty minutes. Culberson clearly knows what he's talking about.

Houston -- led by Rice -- is the number one hotspot for nano right now, and Culberson has been using his position on the House Appropriations Committee to funnel research dollars into Houston. Due in part to Culberson's efforts, Houston has the potential to be the next Silicon Valley. Seriously.

If you're interested in how research done on a nano-scale is going to revolutionize energy, healthcare, composites, computers, etc, then I'd recommend Richard Booker's Nanotech for Dummies. It's probably the most comprehensive look at nanotech today.

Culberson also points out something that has actually been known in the medical field: that ultimately adult stem cells will probably be able to do everything that embryonic stem cells can do. A couple smart folks told me about this a year and a half ago, and they regarded it as pretty likely at the time.

Posted by Evan @ 08/22/06 04:53 PM | Comments (0)

21 August 2006

USA Today does CD17

I've been surprised by how little media attention the CD17 race has gotten. USAToday had a lengthy piece this weekend, reporting that the messages were Taylor's military service versus Edwards' track record.

CD17, of course, is President Bush's home district. He won 69% of the vote there in 2004, while the statewide composite was 66%. In two downballot judicial races (good tests of a district's overall partisanship) the GOP candidates won 65% and 66.5%, although Victor Carrillo only won 63.3%. [All numbers from here.]

So while Edwars is probably a slight favorite, this is always a district that could switch. Edwards hung on in 2004 by effectively portraying Wohlgemuth as too extreme, based on her voting record as a state representative. He's also a former Aggie, which helps neutralize the GOP advantage down in College Station/Bryan.

Posted by Evan @ 08/21/06 04:12 PM | Comments (0)

Wallace withdraws

Chris Elam reports that David Wallace will not be campaigning for CD22.

Posted by Evan @ 08/21/06 02:11 PM | Comments (0)

20 August 2006

The ups and downs of the Texas media cycle: Strayhorn 2006 edition

Awhile back, I wrote about how Carole Strayhorn was solidifying a poor reputation among the state's political cognoscenti. When a candidate gets a bad reputation, favorable media coverage becomes difficult to obtain.

This weekend, R.G. Ratcliffe writes a Sunday Houston Chronicle piece on Strayhorn's shifts over her career:

Comptroller Carole Keeton Strayhorn, an independent candidate for governor, has politically reinvented herself time and again during the past three decades — repeatedly leading to questions of whether her actions are sincere or expedient.

Strayhorn is a Democrat-turned-Republican-turned-independent. She has given up three elected positions and one appointed state job to run for a higher office. And her positions on issues have transformed more than once.

...

Political party switches
• 1985: "I have been a lifelong Democrat, but I'm going to spend the rest of my life vigorously and wholeheartedly in the GOP."
• Now: "I am a Republican. But I know I must set partisan politics aside and do what's right for Texas. That is why I am running for governor as an independent."

Toll roads• 2000: Strayhorn in a review of the Texas Department of Transportation recommended toll roads: "Building highways through toll financing rather than pay-as-you-go financing dramatically speeds the time it takes to complete a given project."
• Now: "I am adamantly opposed to this massive toll plan," Strayhorn said. "Rick Perry calls it Trans-Texas Corridor. I call it Trans-Texas Catastrophe, and as governor, I will blast it off the bureaucratic books."

Private school vouchers• Before: Won election as comptroller in 1998 with the help of a $950,000 loan from voucher advocate James Leininger. Strayhorn said she supported vouchers as a means of giving parents a choice when their children were trapped in failing schools.
• January: "When I've talked about vouchers; philosophically I wouldn't have a problem with that for disadvantaged kids. But let me tell you what, that was before we had five years of this administration that is absolutely totally dismantling our public school system day by day."
• Early February: "I will veto any type of legislation that puts a single dollar into any voucher program, period."
• Late February: "I'm not saying I would never support them. I'm saying that I would take vouchers off the table for discussion. No more talk until we address the needs of public schools."

Abortion
• 1985: "She refused to discuss her position on abortion." — Austin American-Statesman
"She has been pro-choice on abortion, although she now says she opposes abortion personally and would rule out tax dollars for its practice, except in cases of rape incest or where the mother's life is threatened." — Christian Science Monitor
• 1990s: Signed pledges for the Republican National Coalition for Life to oppose abortion and told Greater Austin Right to Life that she supported overturning the Supreme Court decision allowing abortions.
• Now: "I have made my position very clear. As a mama and a grandmama, I believe in the sanctity of life, but I understand that there are those heartbreaking situations where heartbreaking decisions have to be made."

Meanwhile, the Statesman editorial page has Arnold Garcia:

When I read Strayhorn's outsider lament, I rolled my eyes. On reflection, though, the comptroller has a point. She was the first woman to run for mayor when she declared her candidacy in 1977. As progressive as Austin claims to be, a woman running for mayor caused a great deal of consternation in some tight little circles. She might win, after all, they speculated between harrumphs. Two business guys called a press conference to declare that a woman had no business being Austin mayor.

They even got coverage. Her victory prompted each of them to send tongue-in-cheek telegrams to her blaming the other one for saying it.

Anyway, she was an outsider no longer and really hasn't been since.

Even though she may not have been the most popular Democrat or Republican, the Legislature can't write a budget she doesn't approve.

And if that weren't enough, she commands a respectable amount of time, money and attention from enough insiders to be taken seriously as a gubernatorial candidate. That rarely happens with independent candidates, but this isn't your normal election year.

Strayhorn wearing an outsider uniform is a fashion statement — just not a very credible one. Sure, it has a grain of truth to it. For that matter, so did Mauro's claim to being an outsider. It takes more than one grain of sand to make a beach, though.

Way back when it was beginning to become evident that Strayhorn would challenge Perry in 2006, Strayhorn was getting favorable media coverage while Perry was getting lambasted in the state's editorial and news pages. Somehow, Strayhorn has managed to lose her favorable media coverage. Her only chance now is the $8M she's sitting on for TV ads in the next 80 days. But unfavorable free media certainly complicates the paid media campaign.

Posted by Evan @ 08/20/06 03:29 PM | Comments (1)

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