Rick Perry vs World

20 August 2006

Tape deck, rewind it back

Remember how Kinky Friedman filed a complaint against Carole Keeton Strayhorn, only to repudiate it this week? Well now it turns out that RG Ratcliffe has Kinky repudiating the repudiation. Sorta.

Kinky Friedman on Saturday disavowed the criminal complaint that his campaign for governor filed against independent rival Comptroller Carole Keeton Strayhorn, but Friedman declined to withdraw the complaint or apologize to Strayhorn.

"That's not going to happen," Friedman said of an apology.

...

Friedman said he was shocked to see newspaper headlines that indicated he was the one filing the complaint when it was Barkley. Friedman said he was naive enough to think Barkley could file such a complaint without it looking like he was the one making the accusation.

But he said he will not ask Barkley to withdraw the complaint because Barkley thinks it has merit.

"I'm not totally convinced the charges aren't true, by the way. I'm just saying I did not want to be the one that's picking at the other candidates," Friedman said.

So Friedman thought there should be a complaint filed, but he didn't want to be connected to it because he didn't want to pile on? If he won't apologize for it, and thinks the complaint has merit, then that doesn't seem like repudiation.

Posted by Evan @ 08/20/06 02:43 PM | Comments (0)

Shorts

1. Bell gets a Huntsville Item write-thru of his stop in Huntsville.

2. The FWST ed board is happy with Gov. Perry and Transportation Commissioner Ric Williamson for changing the route of the Trans-Texas Corridor around the DFW Metroplex.

3. Democratic Senate nominee Radnofsky was in Tyler:

Barbara Radnofsky, a Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate, said Saturday at a Cherokee County Democratic Party Rally that her opponent, Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, and the rest of the Republicans in power have eroded American democracy.

Interesting strategy. Insult 60% of the electorate, and they must be more likely to vote for you!

On the other hand (and to be more charitable), presumably this run against Hutchison is an attempt to build name ID for a further run. In that case, Radnofsky needs to at least try to keep the Democratic base together, so Hutchison's margin of victory is less than expected.

4. Billy Joe Shaver on being Kinky Friedman's spiritual adviser:

Asked if he's really involved in the country-music performer/mystery writer's independent gubernatorial campaign as Friedman's "spiritual adviser,'' Shaver proudly said: "Yes I am! He'll be the next governor of Texas. He's ahead of the polls.'' Shaver said his spiritual advice is, "If you just stay honest you won't have to stretch your head to remember what you said before,'' and "keep it simple.''

"Kinky's that way, he's brutally honest. He won't be pushed around,'' Shaver said. "He knows what he needs to do.

"He admires Jesus Christ, he's a Jew, there's no doubt about it. But I knew his father and mother. He comes from good stock.''

Shaver's quote "he's ahead of the polls" amuses me. He's certainly not ahead in the polls, so maybe Shaver is on to something.

Posted by Evan @ 08/20/06 02:31 PM | Comments (0)

19 August 2006

Bernie Rapoport on Hillary Clinton

Big time Texas Democratic money man Bernard Rapoport had some interesting quotes about Hillary in Time's snapshot on Hillary's presidential ambitions:

Her strategists tell Time they are urging her to make her intentions clear by next spring—by forming an exploratory committee, for instance—to lock up fund-raising and political talent. Those close enough to know say that she is genuinely undecided but that Bill is not disguising his eagerness to see her make a bid for his old job. "He thinks that she should run, and he's going to do everything possible to help her," says Texas insurance mogul and philanthropist Bernard Rapoport, a longtime Clinton friend and backer.

...

Even when Bill doesn't get in her way, Hillary has trouble pulling off what came so naturally to him. "I wish she hadn't come out against flag burning," says her supporter and funder Rapoport. "The worst mistake she can make is to move to the right. She's going to lose a lot of the enthusiasm of the people who can get her elected." But others point out that by supporting a statute banning flag burning, she helped defeat a more drastic constitutional amendment that would have done the same thing—very much like what her husband did in 1995 when he produced a balanced budget, horrifying the left with 25% cuts in domestic spending. That helped take the political momentum out of a balanced-budget constitutional amendment. "Do you pretend [an issue] doesn't exist, or do you find a way to beat it?" asks former Clinton White House domestic-policy director Bruce Reed. "The Clintons have always found a way to beat it."

I'm mildly puzzled by the idea that Hillary needs to send a signal by spring 2007. She can wait much longer than any other Democrat in the race: the money will still be there, the consultants will still be there, the endorsements will still be there, etc.

In fact, until Hillary says she isn't running, people will assume that she is. So if I were Hillary's strategists, I'd keep her powder dry as long as possible.

Posted by Evan @ 08/19/06 10:49 PM | Comments (0)

David Wallace to announce his intentions Monday

Sugar Land Mayor David Wallace told the local ABC news tonight that he would announce his decision on Monday about whether to continue running for CD22 as a write-in. He plans a press conference from Sugar Land's Town Square on Monday afternoon.

He's already filed to be a write-in, so I don't know whether he can un-file, but he has virtually no chance of success after the local Republican party organizations united around Shelley Sekula-Gibbs. So that would make you think that he's not running.

But Wallace also commented to ABC13 that he had a database of voters across the district, and that it was undemocratic to let about 100 precinct chairs decide the GOP's preferred write-in candidate. So maybe he is running...

If he's not running, it probably wasn't too wise to say that and thus further anger the GOP grassroots in the district in advance of 2008.

UPDATE: Nod to Chris Elam, for predicting this morning that Wallace would drop out Monday.

Posted by Evan @ 08/19/06 10:26 PM | Comments (0)

John Moritz, FWST:

Colleyville home builder Will Edgington was stunned when he received a letter from Comptroller Carole Keeton Strayhorn on state stationery that included a slam on Gov. Rick Perry's tax plan and a summary of her own campaign platform on tax policy and other matters.

The letter, dated July 18 and carrying the letterhead of the state seal, was sent in reply to Edgington's request for information on how local property appraisal review boards are supposed to conduct business.

The first half of the three-page letter explains how a property owner can appeal a review board's decision or request an arbitration hearing. The last page and a half, however, contain several paragraphs that are almost identical to those from a campaign news release that criticizes the tax plan that Perry pushed through the Legislature last spring as part of a school finance overhaul.

Strayhorn is running for governor as an independent.

"The first part of the letter was fine, but I was surprised to see her go on a rant about the governor's tax plan for a page and half," said Edgington, who is not aligned with any of the candidates for governor. "I was pretty shocked, actually."

...

But the letter does borrow wording from Strayhorn's stump speeches and campaign literature.

"Perry's plan is a staggering $23 billion short of the funds needed to pay for the promised property tax cuts over the next five years," one passage reads. The letter goes on to say that state leaders "must really fix our school system, really cut property taxes, rein in government spending, crack down on criminals who abuse our children and repeal the largest tax increase in Texas history."

In a May 18 news release issued by her campaign, Strayhorn called Perry's plan "a $23 billion hot check." And she goes on to say that "we can really fix our school finance system, really cut property taxes, rein in government spending, crack down on criminals who abuse our children and repeal the largest tax increase in Texas history."

Coming on the heels of the revelations that Strayhorn was using state employees to help do research that appeared to be campaign-related, this kinda cements the perception. It keeps the story alive a little longer. And it does seem inappropriate for the comptroller's office to be quoting from campaign press releases.

It also feeds the perception that Strayhorn just has to attack Perry in every opportunity. It sounds like Edgington and Moritz were surprised by the attack, since it didn't appear to be relevant. But who knows, maybe being One Pissed Off Grandma will work.

Posted by Evan @ 08/19/06 02:32 PM | Comments (0)

Friedman: I didn't mean it the first time. Don't investigate Strayhorn

The Statesman has the story on Friedman's campaign changing its mind.

Kinky Friedman has repudiated his campaign's call for Travis County to investigate Carole Keeton Strayhorn's possible misuse of state employees.

"I don't agree with it at all," Friedman said Thursday, a week after his campaign asked Travis County District Attorney Ronnie Earle to take a look. "It just wasn't right."

Friedman and Strayhorn are independent candidates for governor with GOP Gov. Rick Perry, Democratic nominee Chris Bell and Libertarian James Werner.

Friedman said he didn't know the investigation request happened until he saw it reported.

"Miscommunication," he said, indicating that he doesn't want to sully other candidates.

"Don't pick on Grandma," Friedman said, referring to Strayhorn's declared nick-name.

Friedman's campaign director, Dean Barkley, sought an investigation in reaction to news articles stating that Strayhorn, the state comptroller, has agency aides brief her before appearances, including her pitches for support for governor. Briefing papers given to Strayhorn identify leaders of communities she is visiting (including political party heads) and profile local educational and economic conditions, though political talking points do not appear to be included.

Originally, I thought this was a strange tactic from the Friedman campaign. Friedman is running as the anti-politician. If he starts attacking other candidates, then he loses credibility on his anti-politican plank. Of course, Friedman would love to see Strayhorn gone from the campaign, because then he might have an actual shot at winning. But unless he thinks there's a reasonable chance of a knockout blow, it's not a good idea.

To date, it was the only time three of the four candidates have agreed on an ethics attack. For whatever that's worth, since Friedman doesn't agree anymore.

Which reminded me of this from Bell spokesman Jason Stanford:

"The statement that Kinky Friedman filed an ethics complaint against Carole Strayhorn, just that sentence, conveys levels of absurdity heretofore not known in Texas politics," he said.

Now that he's repudiated it, does that make it even more absurd?

Never a dull moment in Texas politics. Hehe.

Posted by Evan @ 08/19/06 02:22 PM | Comments (2)

It's gonna be hard

The Chron's Bill Murphy and Matt Stiles do their version of my post yesterday on how a write-in campaign is a strong improbability. Theirs is headlined, "Sekula-Gibbs faces big hurdles in 22nd bid."

By the way, the Chron article confirms that write-in votes will be counted if the intent of the voter can be determined. Nothing like subjectivity in elections!

Posted by Evan @ 08/19/06 02:10 PM | Comments (0)

Texas gets more hurricane aid

It's about time:

In a Friday announcement at a Houston medical clinic that cared for evacuees from Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, Housing Secretary Alphonso Jackson announced the distribution of the $1 billion for Gulf Coast relief remaining after Louisiana's cut of $4.2 billion.

Breakdown of the $973 million total by state is:

Alabama, $21,225,574
Florida, $100,066,518
Mississippi, $423,036,059
Texas, $428,671,849
For many, it was the culmination of months-long efforts to rectify what had been perceived as a massive shortchanging of Texas in the first round of Gulf Coast recovery grants. The state got less than 1 percent of the first $11.5 billion made available for Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Florida in the wakes of Hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Wilma.

Rita struck Texas on Sept. 24, less than a month after Katrina ripped New Orleans and the neighboring Mississippi coast to pieces.

As Jackson pointed out during his announcement, Texas had opened up for evacuees after Katrina and then had to cope with its own devastation.

Jackson was flanked by U.S. Sens. Kay Bailey Hutchison and John Cornyn and U.S. Rep. Kevin Brady, R-The Woodlands. Texas Railroad Commission member Michael Williams also was in the group.

Brady had convinced Jackson to tour the devastation in East and Southeast Texas, seeing that the federal official eventually inspected about 1,100 square miles for himself to see that Texas needed help.

Good job Kevin Brady! It's been frustrating to see the federal government act like Louisiana -- and New Orleans in particular -- was the only place that was damaged.

It's good to see our congressional delegation working together. It's frustrating that it's taken this long.

Posted by Evan @ 08/19/06 02:07 PM | Comments (0)

18 August 2006

Let's pretend I'm like Texas Weekly...

I know, I haven't posted all week. I was busy, out of town some, and my desktop died. Boo to that. So, let's just pretend this is something like Texas Weekly, and I just write a mega-post on Fridays. Of course, even Ross Ramsey now posts through the week, so that's not true anymore. But it used to be! Jokes aside...

CD22: Do you want to spin the wheel to spell out Shelley Sekula-Gibbs?
The drama continues in CD22. First, Tom DeLay announced he'd resign, but would wait awhile to do so. Then, the state and county parties started a drawn-out process of picking a replacement, but was soon enjoined by a judge ruling for the plaintiff state Democrats. Eventually, the Democrats won -- when the GOP exhausted its appeals -- and the replacement process was dead. DeLay withdrew, and now we don't have a Republican on the ballot.

Sugar Land Mayor David Wallace announced he would run as a write-in (and has already filed), despite the fact that the party chose Shelley Sekula-Gibbs to be its unofficial standard-bearer as the write-in.

Although it's still somewhat early, it appears that Wallace's strategy failed miserably. He hoped that by filing early he could force everyone else out of the write-in race, and thus be the frontrunner against Lampson in 2008. That didn't work, and now he's probably significantly reduced his chances in 2008 by angering much of CD22's GOP grassroots. Instead, now Sekula-Gibbs has to be seen as the early 2008 GOP frontrunner.

The GOP's best hope of defeating Lampson in 2006 was to unite behind Bob Smithers, who is on the ballot as a Libertarian. He's got some name ID, and his name is actually on the ballot. A few Republican officeholders endorsed his candidacy. He even offered to caucus with the Republicans if elected, thus denying Nick Lampson a chance to vote for arch-liberal Nancy Pelosi as Speaker of the House.

But Republicans refused to endorse Smither, instead opting for Sekula-Gibbs. There are reasons not to endorse Smither: 1) Republicans ought be wary of promoting the Libertarian Party in any way. Arguably, Libertarian candidates on the ballot have cost Republicans a few US Senate seats over the past decade or so. A viable Libertarian party would do the opposite of the Libertarian party's goal of small government: it would ensure that Democrats would control the government. 2) Endorsing and promoting Smither as an alternative to Lampson complicates the GOP's efforts to urge straight-ticket Republican votes.

So, will enough people spin the wheel for Sekula-Gibbs?
You're joking, right? Of course not. Nobody should kid themselves. The GOP write-in campaign will not succeed. A week or so ago, I put the odds as "longer than 22:1." I don't see any reason to change that.

Here's the reality: this is not your father's write-in campaign. While CQ (and 2006's OH DCCC-backed Dem primary write-in campaign by Charlie Wilson) have shown us that write-in campaigns are theoretically possible, this is a different era. Back then, they could actually write in the name of a candidate. Now, voters will have to choose the write-in option on the eSlate, and then spin the wheel to spell out Sekula-Gibbs. Folks, that just ain't gonna happen. Despite rumors of the NRCC spending $4 million (I highly doubt NRCC Chair Tom Reynolds is that dumb, and I doubt Ken Mehlman is going to be spending the RNC's money either), no amount of money is likely to make this a probability. I was an election judge when eSlate's came out in Harris County in 2002, and I remember the confusion voters had. While they've gotten more used to the eSlate, they haven't been writing in names.

Further complications: 1) does the voter have to spell out "Shelley Sekula-Gibbs" or just "Sekula-Gibbs"? Will "SekulaGibbs" be good enough? This reminds me of "voter intent" in 2000, and it's not a fond memory. 2) Wallace's name will be among the write-ins, and he may campaign too, further complicating the process.

So congratulations to soon-to-be Congressman Lampson. Despite losing by more than he should have to Ted Poe (in a district that he actually lived in!) in 2004 (56%-43%), his moxie (or hubris, depending on your point of view) has a very strong possibility of paying off.

Texas money men for McCain
Chris Cillizza keeps a regularly updated list of the Bush Pioneer or Ranger fundraisers who have joined up with a presidential candidate. He counts Senator Bill Frist with 7, Governor Mitt Romney with 14, and Senator John McCain with 11.

I wrote briefly about Romney before -- and I still recommend my friend's blog The Romney Report. For a long time, I'd written Romney off, but he's one guy that will probably be able to raise the money. He's got ventural capital, Bain Consulting, Boston, Republican Governors Association, Michigan (where he grew up), Utah (Olympics), Mormons (he's Mormon).

But what's more striking is that five of McCain's Rangers/Pioneers are from Texas: Rob Mosbacher, Tom Loeffler, Kent Hance, Carter Pate, and former Gov. Bill Clements. Add to that the apparent support of Dallas brothers Charles and Sam Wyly, who have hosted a fundraiser for McCain's PAC, and it sends a few signals.

First, some former McCain enemies look like they're hopping on board. The Wylys spent a few million dollars in the 2000 primary attacking McCain, and McCain filed an FEC complaint against them. There was some animosity, certainly. But it looks like that animus has attenuated quite a bit, to say the least. Two, it means that Bush isn't sending signals to his former fundraisers that he'd prefer someone other than McCain. Three, no Texas Pioneers/Rangers have signed up for any other presidential candidate. This might point to Texans deciding to support McCain

It will be interesting to watch this develop.

Friedman not a fan of the Kossacks?
Transcript of Kinky's appearance on Scarborough Country:

SCARBOROUGH: Hey, Kinky, could the argument be that both parties are extreme, vote for the new independent?

FRIEDMAN: That could certainly be. I think the mood of the country is really, really independent. I mean, I think the winds of change are really blowing right now. And all the—the way I see Lieberman, he's very—he's pro-America, unashamedly, and he's pro-Israel. And these liberals are not.

This amuses me, since I'd surmise that most of the Kinky Friedman bumper stickers I see in my area are on cars whose owners support Ned Lamont. In fact, I'm pretty sure I actually saw a car with a Lamont bumper sticker and a Friedman sticker.

Cornyn and Hutchison at odds?
Lufkin Daily News editorial board:

Kay Bailey Hutchison told us in an editorial board meeting this week that past Texas senators have "all gone national," in that they focused on matters of importance to all Americans at the expense of issues at home.

Her attention to Texas hasn't gone unnoticed.

A story in the Houston Chronicle on Tuesday examined the track records of Hutchison and fellow Sen. John Cornyn during the four years he's been in office: While Cornyn has worked to make a name for himself outside of Texas, Hutchison has devoted much of her time to such constituent issues as hurricane aid and military base closings.

Seems like the LDN ed board interpreted Hutchison's remark as somewhat of a shot against Cornyn. Others have reported that Cornyn and Hutchison were supposed to have a breakfast sit-down in DC, but that Hutchison ended up re-scheduling. They are on opposite sides of each other on the immigration debate. But I haven't heard much either way, so it's all conjecture to me.

In case it matters, the LDN's editorial was very pro-Hutchison in regards to her re-election.

Downballot races
This is what counts for coverage in the downballot races. Lack of coverage means that voters are even more likely to vote on partisanship. Big advantage: Republicans.

Bell poll
A Cooper & Secrets poll done for Chris Bell. 7/31-8/6 (quite a long time to have a poll in the field); 1010 likely voters (as usual, we don't know the screen)

Perry 38%
Bell 18
Strayhorn 16
Friedman 11
Werner 1

In the poll, 58% disapprove of Perry's job performance. That seems a little high, which means Democrats might've been slightly oversampled. Overall, the fact that Bell is only gettin 18% in his own polls is bad news for him.

Can you think of another time when a major party candidate would release his own poll showing him at 18%? Yikes! I can't, although I bet Schlesinger in Connecticut would love to.

Debates
A week ago, the candidates agreed on a four-way Strayhorn, Perry, Friedman, and Bell debate. Strayhorn criticized Perry for the debate being the night before the Red River Shootout between UT and OU.

Other quick gubernatorial stuff before I head out the door for a soccer game
Perry attacked Strayhorn several times this week on ethics. He attacked her for a contract her office gave her brother's law firm, as well as a $130M refund her office gave Texas Instruments (and that will wreck the budgets of several small cities). Personally, I found this part odd:

Sanders said this week that Strayhorn didn't even know about the Texas Instruments refund — which represents about a tenth of $1.4 billion refunded annually — until she read about it in a newsletter.

"The decisions (about the refund) were made by her staff," Sanders said.

Comptroller Strayhorn didn't sign off on a $130M tax refund? That seems like the sort of thing that should be approved by a Comptroller. Odd.

Meanwhile, Strayhorn called Perry the "most ethically challenged governor" and is probably the source/instigation behind the articles around the state (example here) which mention governmental appointments given to some of Perry's biggest contributors.

Meanwhile, Friedman offered an energy plan.

And I am now late for my soccer game.

Posted by Evan @ 08/18/06 03:41 PM | Comments (0)

10 August 2006

Sekula in too

Shelley Sekula-Gibbs has joined David Wallace in saying that she'd like to be the write-in candidate for DeLay's seat. Unlike Wallace, it appears that Shelley won't run if she doesn't get the GOP's grassroots' blessing.

Meanwhile, Chris Elam says there is no grassroots support for either.

Of course, this is really all about 2008. While there are some rumors about national committees promising to pour in millions, I don't think anyone seriously believes that we can get 50%+1 to spin a wheel for a write-in candidate. But folks would like to be that candidate, because that means they're likely to be a Congressman in January 2009...unless they're totally incompetent and can't beat Nick Lampson in a 65% GOP district.

Posted by Evan @ 08/10/06 09:23 PM | Comments (0)

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