Rick Perry vs World
18 February 2010
hear hear
Gotta agree with Cory Crow:
Annise Parker's biggest gaffe as Mayor so far? Not putting Tory Gattis on her Metro committee. Big, big mistake.
Posted by Evan @ 02/18/10 02:31 PM | Comments (0)
Who cares about being on topic anyway?
I've written a few times about polls recently, but I hope you'll allow me one more.
The liberal blog firedoglake has commissioned polls from SurveyUSA, with the stated rationale to show that Democrats are in trouble because of the healthcare bill. These surveys have shown Democrats in serious trouble. Because of that, Democrats have begun to attack the polls and SurveyUSA. Nate Silver, who has essentially taken down Republican polling firm Strategic Vision, examines the evidence on SurveyUSA.
I could have written Silver's post almost word for word, which is fairly rare since he's on the opposite end of the political spectrum.And as little respect as I have for FDL is as much respect as I have for SurveyUSA, which is a strong and transparent polling firm.
...
That is, we expect a pollster to do its very best work whenever its brand name is associated with a poll; there are no mulligans.
I agree completely that the commissioner of the poll should not matter if the polling firm puts its name on it. Um....Zogby?
Posted by Evan @ 02/18/10 03:55 AM | Comments (1)
17 February 2010
Shami's team quitting
After yesterday's post, today's news is that they are quitting:
Campaign director and senior strategist Vince Leibowitz, press secretary Charlie Ray, communications director Kelly Love Johnson and two other senior campaign officials -- whom Leibowitz wouldn't name -- quit after a series of press releases went out without the paid political professionals' authorization or knowledge. Several were traced to Farouk Systems official Jessica Gutierrez and a Rio Grande Valley publicist hired separately by the Houston businessman, who is making his first political race.
Posted by Evan @ 02/17/10 02:51 PM | Comments (0)
I'm hoping you get where I'm going with this, but you probably won't
To be honest, I feel bad for the Shami staffers. Sometimes the hardest part of a campaign is the candidate. You can give the best advice in the world, but if they don't listen to you...
Posted by Evan @ 02/17/10 01:28 AM | Comments (2)
The Declare I'm Messageless Tour
AP:
U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison is unveiling a two-week finishing kick to her gubernatorial primary campaign she's dubbing the "Declare Your Independence" tour.The name is intended to relate to Texas Independence Day on March 2, which also is primary election day.
Because that just sums up the campaign's message for the 6 months...?
Posted by Evan @ 02/17/10 01:15 AM | Comments (0)
16 February 2010
Early voting has started
So there are already votes that are out of reach for the candidates.
Posted by Evan @ 02/16/10 09:42 AM | Comments (0)
15 February 2010
Just asking
Suppose I think women are superior to men. Someone asks me, "do you think women are superior to men?"
I reply, "Well...I'm not sure. I'm not into telling people what they should or shouldn't think. I'm into protecting people's rights to ask questions."
Could that ever rise to the level of a coordinated attack?
Posted by Evan @ 02/15/10 04:06 PM | Comments (1)
14 February 2010
Horseracing
Probably worth mentioning that there's a pretty good summary of polling data over at Rick vs. Kay. Also, RvK mentions all the polls I won't, so if you want to confuse yourself with too much and possibly misleading data...enjoy!
Posted by Evan @ 02/14/10 08:54 PM | Comments (0)
The TX dailies' poll
Pretty long time for a poll to be in the field. The funny thing is that we've had like 6 polls in the last week, and not a single one of them was particularly relevant because none of them tested how deeply Medina has imploded...the effects of which probably couldn't even be captured by putting a poll in the field today, as she continues to implode daily by saying new things and defending previous statements.
2/2 - 2/10 Blum and Weprin poll for the big dailies, 2017 adults, 1508 registered, 464 likely GOP voters
Perry 45
Hutchison 29
Medina 17
Perry 43
White 37
KBH 42
White 34
46/38 Perry job approval/disapproval as governor
40/48 Obama job approval/disapproval as potus
53/35 right track/wrong track for Texas
Interestingly, although the horse race numbers for Perry aren't great, those numbers are pretty good for him.
Posted by Evan @ 02/14/10 08:49 PM | Comments (0)
Why I don't link to the TT/UT internet poll
Yesterday I mentioned that as a matter of general policy, I don't post polls of house districts for statewide races. Today's post is why I don't report on the UT/Texas Tribune polls.
The UT/Texas Tribune poll is an internet poll, based on opt-in. It is difficult to understate the fundamental theoretical difference between an opt-in internet poll and a telephone poll. The sample is not random.
I wish I could simply cut and paste from UT/TT poll methodology page, but frankly I found their discussion hard to understand, and I know how the poll works! So, at the risk of minor errors, let me try to simplify: the UT/TT poll is done by PoliMetrix, which obtains consent of participants (they find them through Google Ads) and keeps them in a database (currently about 55k Texans). When they need to do a specific poll, they take a random sample of the registered voters provided by the Secretary of State. Then, they attempt to match the people that were randomly selected from the voter pool with one of the people in their database who has already consented. They use an algorithm to find someone who matches the randomly selected voter as closely as possible on the basis of race, age, gender, region, and partisanship. Then they send them a web survey (if they get no response, they match to a similar person), compile their results, and voila! a poll.
The most recent study led the authors to conclude that the emprical data does not say that "opt-in sample surveys are as accurate as or more accurate than probability sample surveys." There was some back and forth (not an exhaustive set of links, obviously) which argued many things, but including if the additional margin of error was really significant.
Polling is, by nature, a cost/benefit analysis. Polling attempts to save money by taking a sample which saves money by alleviating the need to ask every single voter. Internet polling is cheaper, and has managed a decent track record, if not quite what telephone polling has. [Sidenote: I supported automated (IVR) polling before it was commonly accepted, because it was obviously predictive. So it's not that I'm reflexively anti-new forms of polling.]
However, with that said, I doubt that any professional pollster of either party has ever used an online poll for campaign purposes. As of now, telephone polling is more accurate. While it's a small sample size, PoliMetrix's polls in the 2009 races had Corzine 43, Christie 41, McDonnell 53, Deeds 40. McDonnell won 59 to 41, and Christie didn't actually lose, he won 49 to 44. While only eyeballing, I'm pretty sure that's worse than your average poll. It might also suggest that PoliMetrix underweights Republicans, though significantly more data would be required.
In sum, internet polling has improved. The UT/TT poll by PoliMetrix is on the borderline for me. In the future, it might be undebateably acceptable for two reasons: 1) it proves itself to be equal in accuracy to telphone polling, and 2) due to cell phones, telephone polling declines. And, if we were in a period with no other data, I would probably mention the UT/TT poll. But right now we some regular and irregular polling be done by established polling organizations, so in my judgment the poll doesn't add to what we already know.
Posted by Evan @ 02/14/10 01:05 PM | Comments (0)
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