Rick Perry vs World

24 February 2010

Why I haven't mentioned the newspaper endorsements

* It was obvious who they were going to endorse.
Did anyone doubt that Bill White was going to sweep the Democratic endorsements? Was there ever a chance that a single urban daily would endorse someone other than KBH? To be honest, I haven't paid attention at all, so I suppose there's a chance I am wrong and look like an idiot. The only endorsements I've seen are when Evan Smith mentions endorsements on TexasTribune, but I'd be fairly shocked if Shami or Perry got a major endorsement...especially after Perry purposely snubbed the endorsement boards by refusing to meet with them.

* They aren't relevant.
There was a day when newspaper endorsements mattered. And even in some downballot races today, they could swing a few votes. But in a high-profile race like this KBH v Rick, newspaper endorsements aren't going to have any palpable difference.

Posted by Evan @ 02/24/10 08:21 AM | Comments (0)

23 February 2010

1 week out predictions

Dick Murray predicts:

Perry 44% Hutchison 37% Medina 19%

White 65% Shami 18% Others 17%

There's still alot that can happen, but I'll go on the record as well.

Perry 49 Hutchison 37 Medina 14

White 49 Shami 20 Others 31

My Dem primary guess is largely based on recent history, but I might be wrong. It'd be awfully embarassing for White to face a runoff, but I'm inclined to think that he will. Whether it will be against Shami, I'm not so sure, but probably.

As for my GOP predictions, I largely assume that Perry and KBH will find a way to disseminate some of the crazy things that Medina has said, as it doesn't yet seem to have really filtered through. Also, polls would tend to overstate someone like her. It's somewhat surprising to me if Perry avoids the runoff, but I have him as about a coinflip to do so. Normally I would assume that his upper bound would be about whatever the polls say he is, and maybe that's the case here. However, I assume that his campaign can knock off some of the Medina supporters into his camp. I think he ends up in the 47-51% range.

Posted by Evan @ 02/23/10 11:31 PM | Comments (1)

PPP and KXAN Constituent Dynamics Polls

KXAN, Constituent Dynamics, 2/19-2/21 1300 reg voters, +/- 3%

Perry 44
Hutchison 30
Medina 14
Undec 12

White 43
Shami 22
Others 8
Undec 27

Public Policy Polling, a Democratic polling firm, released their GOP primary numbers.
2/19-2/21, 400 likely Republican primary voters, sampling MoE +/- 4.9%

Perry 40
Hutchison 31
Medina 20
Undecided 9

Hypothetical runoff
KBH 35
Perry 52

PPP shows a definite bifurcation between conservatives and moderates/liberals. Among liberals, Hutchison leads 40 to 25 and among moderates Hutchison leads 51 to 26. Among conservatives, Perry leads 45 to Hutch's 24 with Medina picking up 20.

On the D side, they have White 59, Shami 12, Alvarado 5, Aguado 3, and undecided 18.

Posted by Evan @ 02/23/10 09:57 PM | Comments (0)

Real Men of Genius

Anyone else mildly surprised that Perry's campaign hasn't reprised the Real Men of Genius ads?

Posted by Evan @ 02/23/10 04:29 PM | Comments (1)

Damage control

Time to walk it back. A Bill White spokesman says:

"On Saturday night, Bill was NOT referring to "his GOP rivals" in discussing a post-primary scenario. Bill was referring specifically to Governor Rick Perry, who by all accounts is expected to win the Republican nomination after a difficult primary.

Very statesman-like.

Nothing like calling your opponent evil to kickoff a campaign. Even KBH -- not running the most astute of campaigns -- didn't go there, and this campaign has been pretty intense.

Posted by Evan @ 02/23/10 10:12 AM | Comments (0)

Closing arguments: the ads on the air

Perry in work clothes, seated talking to the camera with the rest of the screen a Texas flag. The federal government is messed up. It's simple, and effective. With its talk about the 10th Amendment, this ad is aimed at former Medina supporters who can't stomach voting for a crazy 9/11 truther . "See, I've got some libertarian leanings too."

Kay = washington. Voted for the bailout and lots of earmarks.

With a picture of the Capitol as the background, the first two-thirds is a rapid fire succession of one-line shots that newspapers have printed about Perry. Then it transitions into a shot of all the newspaper endorsements she's gotten before two quick shots of Kay. It was titled "Fueled" but there was alot of talk about newspapers.

White's ad is aimed at the general election, not at the primary. I make it a habit to watch campaign ads with the sound off to check out the visuals, and...well, try it. When tax cuts are on the screen, Bill White is not making a "I am telling you the truth" face. Beyond the conflicting visual, I'm not sure how much I like putting White on the screen all the time in every ad, but maybe they're trying to turn a negative into a positive. Still, it's the right sort of theme that White should be sounding, so for that it's a decent ad.

Posted by Evan @ 02/23/10 08:58 AM | Comments (0)

22 February 2010

Rick v Kay has been doing an awfully good job documenting that Debra Medina is a conspiracy theorist truther.

Posted by Evan @ 02/22/10 11:38 PM | Comments (0)

Campaign finance reports due

We should get information today about how much money candidates have raised and spent. The period covers Jan 22 to Feb 20.

Posted by Evan @ 02/22/10 10:35 PM | Comments (0)

Very post-partisan

We know what Bill White calls Republicans when he's talking to Democrats:

Former Houston Mayor Bill White on Saturday called on Dallas County Democrats to rally around his candidacy for Texas governor in order to stop the Republican "forces of darkness."

...

After the primary, "when the forces of darkness are licking their wounds, let's get out there," White urged Democrats.

Someone might want to remind White that the forces of darkness...er, the Republicans, are a majority in Texas. He's gonna need some of those votes.

Posted by Evan @ 02/22/10 02:11 PM | Comments (0)

The Houston Chronicle thinks that Houston has its very own modern-day Robert Moses, apparently.

Posted by Evan @ 02/22/10 02:42 AM | Comments (0)

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