Rick Perry vs World

13 February 2010

Research2000 poll

I'll pass these along, without commenting except to say that they have White running stronger than other polls. I'm inclined to put more weight to those other polls.

Research 2000. 2/8-2/10

Perry 42
KBH 30
Medina 17

Fav/Unfav
Perry 50/45
KBH 52/37
Medina 47/35 (this is before her 9/11 truther comments. Still, does anyone actually seriously believe that over 80% have even a soft opinion of Medina? )
White 49/33
Obama 44/54

Perry 46
White 42

KBH 47
White 41

Medina 44
White 43

Posted by Evan @ 02/13/10 09:16 PM | Comments (0)

Why I don't link to house district polls, congressional district polls, etc

I see people quoting polls from CD 18, or a state house seat in Dallas, and I think, "why?"

First, I don't report polls unless I know who the pollster is, preferably with the exact wording of their question provided as well. Polling isn't quite like indictments ("a prosecutor can indict a ham sandwich") but it's close. Unreputable pollsters have plenty of tricks at their disposal to get the numbers they want to get.

Second, in terms of predicting a statewide race, a poll from any given house seat is not helpful. It's not a representative sample. If I take a poll in Austin, and it shows Ronnie Earle leading in the Dem lt gov race, do I know anything more than before? Not really.

This is especially true when there is sufficient data. Right now, Rasmussen and PPP is polling regularly, and a few new polls appear every week. There's no lack of data. There are limited exceptions, of course. If a trend can be established, that might be useful ("Gee, candidate X was winning by 10 last month and now is losing by 25!") to know, especially if one candidate was attacking on issues specific to the area of the congressional district.

But in general I think such polls confuse more than they aid. So I don't mention them here.

Posted by Evan @ 02/13/10 04:32 PM | Comments (0)

A note for political candidates

I've provided this handy guide for political candidates. If anyone asks you any of these questions, the answer is NO.

Was Pearl Harbor a happy day for America?

Was Saddam Hussein really just a misunderstood guy? Is it only a rumor that he committed genocide against the Kurds?

Is Lyndon LaRouche really on to something?

Is Obama bin Laden really a moral, decent person when it comes down to it?

Is the Holocaust an invention of the Jews?

Does Charles Manson seem like a role model to you?

Was Barack Obama actually born in Africa?

Is there a secret New World Order conspiring to take over the world?

Was Stalin's murdering of millions a good thing?

Anyway, dearest candidate for political office, I hope you find this list helpful. I know some of those questions are difficult, so don't overthink it. The answer really is no. Moral outrage would also be appropriate.

Posted by Evan @ 02/13/10 03:51 PM | Comments (1)

12 February 2010

KBH new ad "Honest"

I thought this was a good ad. Aside from putting her in burnt orange (y'all realize we're not all longhorns?) it was an ad they should've run months ago. But early voting opens up...on the 16th. Maybe a little late to start telling us your message.

Posted by Evan @ 02/12/10 11:42 AM | Comments (0)

The cult of Debra Medina

Hypothetically speaking:

Q: In your opinion, did the Holocaust happen?

A: I don't have all the evidence. Good questions have been asked and I haven't seen answers. I'm not going to take a position...the Holocaust isn't even an issue in this race!

Is there a difference? Is it a trick question? Is it possible to "overthink" the question, BigJolly? If she was afraid to answer because of her supporters, what does that say about her?

She was given the biggest softball question twice and said "good questions have been asked"...twice. It blows me away that anyone would publically defend that answer.

Posted by Evan @ 02/12/10 10:34 AM | Comments (4)

11 February 2010

Snap

The DMN endorses Ronnie Earle for the Dem lt gov primary, but:

Neither candidate details a clear vision of how to deal with such issues as the state budget crunch, under-funded highways and challenges for public education.

Posted by Evan @ 02/11/10 08:10 PM | Comments (0)

It's a little early for I told you so, but...

I'd like to note that I've been repeatedly saying I don't think Medina will get 12% of the vote.

Posted by Evan @ 02/11/10 01:56 PM | Comments (0)

Debra Medina transcript on Glenn Beck 9/11 truthers

Is anyone actually surprised? This isn't some fresh revelation.

Here's the transcript I typed up:

Beck: Do you believe the government was any way involved with the bringing down of the World Trade Centers on 9/11?

Medina: I don't have all of the evidence there Glenn, so I don't, I'm not in a place, i have not been out publically uh questioning that. i think some very good questions have been raised in that regard there's some very good arguemnts and i think the american people have not seen all the evidence there so i've not taken a position on that

Beck: I think the people of America might think that's a yes.

Medina: I'm not going to take a position where I think good questions have been raised and they're not answered.

Later Medina said that she's not "into mind control or thought police" as way of explaining why she's ok with 9/11 truthers.

How much of the Texas print media do you think wishes they could walk back some of those glowing profiles?

Posted by Evan @ 02/11/10 01:53 PM | Comments (3)

10 February 2010

For what it's worth, I'd put more weight on the credit union poll than the PPP poll.

Posted by Evan @ 02/10/10 07:44 PM | Comments (0)

Credit Union poll: Perry 49, KBH 27, Medina 19

The Texas Credit Union League has released a poll showing Perry nearing 50%.

Public Opinion Strategies' Glen Bolger (R) did the GOP part.
Hamilton Campaigns' David Beattie (D) did the Dem part.
2/3-2/6. 400 likely primary voters for each party, 800 overall.
MoE +/- 4.9% for each primary sample.

Perry 49 (27% strongly)
KBH 27 (13% strongly)
Medina 19 (12% strongly)

runoff:
Perry 58
KBH 34

White 51
Shami 19
Alvarado 7
Aguado 4
16 Undecided

Right Direction/Wrong Track
GOP
65% Right direction
23% Wrong track

Dems
27% Right direction
57% Wrong track

Results show Republicans care more about their primary (no surprise, it's more high-profile) and that a plurality of each party plans to vote early.

Dem LG primary
Chavez-Thompson 25
Earle 18
Katz 8

Posted by Evan @ 02/10/10 05:39 PM | Comments (0)

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