Rick Perry vs World

17 April 2010

As California goes...

Phil Martin criticizes Paul Burka for saying:

The message sent by voters in the Republican primary is that they have little use for establishment politicians...All of the energy right now is being supplied by angry Republican voters who can't wait to get to the polls and kick out incumbents.

Democrats should be very worried about this political climate.

Martin doesn't exactly claim that Burka is wrong that it will be a bad year for Democrats. On the other hand, I'd have to agree with him that there is very little to be drawn for general elections from primary data. Still, just because you can't draw conclusions from primary data doesn't transform the underlying conclusion backed by the rest of the evidence: 2010 is a bad year for Democrats.

Apropos of this subject, let's have a gander at California:

Hints of re-election trouble for U.S. Sen. Barbara Boxer come from a 65-year-old travel agent from this leafy Los Angeles suburb [Westlake Village] who's a fellow Democrat.

To Helen Sargent, taxes and the national debt are too high, President Barack Obama has proved a disappointment and the Democratic Party needs new faces.

Boxer, who's seeking a fourth term this fall, "has been there too long," Sargent said. "All politicians have a shelf life."

Boxer carried Westlake Village by 56 votes in 2004.

...

More troubling: More than half the state's independents, the swing voters, have an unfavorable opinion of the senator.

Boxer "is part of the political system that wants to grow the government," says John Millrany, 71, a semi-retired public relations executive and political independent who once was a Democratic Party volunteer.

"I think the government is growing too large," he said outside the library. "The entitlements and the taxes are bound to go up."

This is California. If people feel that way in California, how do you think they feel in Texas?

Posted by Evan @ 04/17/10 06:19 PM | Comments (0)

The one in which I defend Bill White from Politipinion

In mid-January, the governor, the lt gov, and the speaker sent a joint memo telling agencies to submit plans for 5% budget cuts. As I noted at the time, "of $182.3 billion in the budget, the cuts only apply to about $32 billion. Still, that would cover $1.6 billion of the hole."

On March 9, Bill White criticized "just [cutting] across the board, Soviet style...you know, budget management that only career politicians seem to embrace." He did so in the context of saying that he didn't agree with one-size-fits-all budget cuts, because he would cut some departments more than others.

Today, April 17, Politifact gives its "pants on fire" liar rating to White's statement. Yikes.

Bill White didn't lie. He gave an opinion. Maybe he used a loaded word, but so what? Most words in the English language bring some connotations. He thinks that a standardized dictate from up high reminds him of the Soviets. That's not a factual assertion, it's his not-unreasonable opinon. Rather than investigating what academics think of the phrase "Soviet-style," how about we actually investigate Bill White's record as a manager?

Posted by Evan @ 04/17/10 12:10 AM | Comments (0)

Another Houston Metro scandal

KHOU drops the bomb on Paul Magaziner and Gayla Hamilton's sleuthing:

It all dates back to November of 2009, when Metro filed an application for that $900 million [federal grant]. Magaziner says to qualify for that grant, Metro had to prove to the FTA that it could afford to build all five lines of its proposed light rail expansion. Just proving it could afford three, or four lines was not an option he says, pointing to Metro’s own statements in its federal filing.

But he says Metro knew full well it could not afford to build all five lines, but instead, he claims, tried to fool the federal government into thinking it would be possible. Metro did that, he says, by replacing newer, more up to date financial forecasts for sales tax revenue with older outdated information created back in 2008 before the financial crash ever took place.

In other words, to quote Tory Gattis' summary

[Metro] intentionally used out-of-date pre-recession sales tax revenue estimates to "prove" it could afford to build all five lines (which was required). UH Dr. Barton Smith gave them updated numbers in June 2009, but they chose to submit the old June 2008 numbers with the November 2009 application.

The difference in numbers is just a mere $2.5 billion. 2,500,000,000.

We have a mess of a transit agency in Houston because of Bill White. the Mayor of Houston controls Metro. In other words, these are Bill White's handpicked people, and Metro is not exactly a low-profile agency with a noncontroversial history.

Posted by Evan @ 04/17/10 12:07 AM | Comments (0)

16 April 2010

Winners and losers of primary season 2010

Winners

The Democratic establishment
Recent Senate primaries have made the case that the Democratic establishment backing wasn't worth much. Radnofsky couldn't avoid a runoff against a guy who didn't campaign in 2006. Bentsen and Kirk ran behind Victor Morales in 2002 (though Kirk came from behind to take the runoff), and Victor Morales upset two long-time congressman in 96 as well. Though establishment candidate Tony Sanchez won in 2002, it doesn't really count, as Morales had been MIA for a few years, Sanchez spent tens of millions more than Morales, and in retrospect Morales appears to have been running only to fight off the corruption charges that would send him to jail for a few years. So for White to avoid the runoff so convincingly was a good sign that they can still be worth something in primaries.

Me
I started this blog by saying that the media had it all wrong. Despite universal agreement among Texas media in early 2005 that Hutchison was the overwhelming favorite, I said she wasn't even the favorite. No one believed me. I've now been proven correct twice -- once when she ran and once when she didn't. Plus I applied to work at a venture capital fund recently, so clairvoyance can't hurt my application!

Rick Perry
Duh? He beat the state's previously most popular politician, and not just beat her but overwhelmed her. He even avoided a runoff. Obviously he really wanted to convince Kay not to run, but short of that, this was about as good a result as can be imagined.

Bill White
Avoided a runoff by a long shot. I've said a million times that I'm not expert on the Democratic primary, but there was substantial doubt among other analysts as well that he would avoid a runoff. He did by alot.

Straus
I haven't added up the numbers conclusively, but he appears to have the votes to get re-elected Speaker. He lost some folks like Delwin Jones and Brian McCall, but I think he'll

Ted Cruz
Intuitively you would put him in the losers section, right? The shuffle didn't happen and he now has no office to run for. On the other hand, he's known by activists, he's got seven figures in the bank, and he's shown that he'll be a force to be reckoned with in the future. I for sure wouldn't want to be working on an opposing campaign.

Texas Tribune
It's true that they occasionally revealed their left-leaning ownership, but they also were one of the first places to get news...as was DMN's Trailblazers blog.

Losers

Debra Medina
I'm cutting against the grain on this one, as most people would say she helped herself. But did she help herself with anyone in her party who will still be around in 6 years? Color me skeptical. For someone who is already not even close to being within the mainsteram of Republican thought, she managed to repeatedly let us know that she was okay having people around her who ~~deny the Holocaust~~ question whether 9/11 was directed by former President Bush.

The Bushies
In the ongoing Perry vs Bush cold war (both sides would deny the existence), this proxy battle in Afghanistan was won by Perry (who plays Charlie Wilson?). George HW Bush, Jim Baker, and Dick Cheney all came around to endorse Kay Bailey. Many of Bush's political team was (theoretically) advising KBH informally. But the Bushies who have come home from DC won't be running things for at least another four years...

Kay Bailey Hutchison
Is there really anything left to say that hasn't been said? She didn't articulate a reason why people should make her governor. I refuse to rehash the rest.

Political Junkies
For a supposed clash of the titans, Rick v Kay really underperformed, didn't it? I would've liked to have seen a stronger performance from Kay, but such is life.

Farouk Shami
I took him quite seriously when I learned about him, but wrote him off afterwards when it became obvious that the ship was never seaworthy. It's hard to say whether his consultants took him for a $10+ million ride or whether he ran exactly the campaign he wanted to run because it made him feel important. I'm leaning towards both.

Op-ed boards
Op-ed endorsements are fairly archaic by this point. It's one thing if they get the candidates to sit down, ask them pressing questions and then post the video. That'd be useful! People would watch! Instead a declining industry 100% unanimously backed a candidate who got 30% of the vote writing the same old 3 paragraphs on the side of the editorial page.

Posted by Evan @ 04/16/10 06:14 AM | Comments (0)

Tea party day

[for the record, I had to file 5 or 6 different schedules and forms and what not. We can thank our Congress for how difficult it is.]

Republican activists have been throwing tea parties on April 15th since I can remember. But now reporters are going to them.

Gromer Jeffers talks of the tea parties last year and says:

A year ago today Rick Perry won the Republican nomination for governor. At the time, we just didn't know it.

Perry attended several tea parties last April 15, including the event in Austin where he told reporters that he understood the views of those who wanted Texas to leave the union.

I think Perry won because Hutchison looked at her husband when she heard of Perry's remarks and said something like, "we just won." It showed that Hutchison was out of touch and incapable of running a solid campaign.

Meanwhile, though Perry participated in a tea party planning call, he didn't actually speak to one (although Newt did). Last year, if I recall correctly, he scrambled to speak to several. This year he was hanging out with a former Democratic state senator:

Perry appeared with Fort Worth Mayor Mike Moncrief, NASCAR Champion Bobby Labonte and others in downtown Fort Worth to promote NASCAR weekend at the Texas Motor Speedway.

Afterward, the governor and the mayor posed for photos in front of Labonte's Chevrolet Impala SS, sponsored by Perry's re-election campaign and emblazoned with his campaign logo. Despite the photo op, Moncrief said he wasn't making an endorsement in the governor's race.

Have you ever noticed that Perry has usually done a pretty good job at charming Democrats he used to work with?

Posted by Evan @ 04/16/10 12:15 AM | Comments (0)

15 April 2010

Burka might be right, but I'd like factual support

Paul Burka wrote almost 800 words on why he thinks Rick Perry is running for president. But in those 800 words the only factual support that he gave was that 1) he asked people to text fired up to his campaign, and 2) he talked about the federal government being too big.

Well, I grant that number 1 is evidence to be weighed. A fundraising network outside of Texas is important to running for president. On the other hand, campaigns require money and Perry is in a campaign now. If we're talking about running for president, Perry has served as Chair of the Republican Governors Association and currently serves as Finance Chair. Those two pieces of information probably weigh more towards Perry running than the fact that the tried to expand his campaign text message database. All in all, I wouldn't put too much importance on Perry asking people to text him. He can use that to raise money, and that's what politicians do: they raise money.

As for Perry saying the fed government is too big, well that's kinda par for the course isn't it? He does that in every speech, and has over the past year, if not beyond. Are there any Republicans giving speeches that don't say this?

Burka could be right. Maybe Perry is running for president. Maybe his whole story about not wanting to go to DC is just a coverup for the fact that he's running. But all in all, the facts seem to suggest much more strongly that Perry is not running for President.

Posted by Evan @ 04/15/10 03:57 PM | Comments (4)

One Crazy Grandma returns!

You didn't think she was going to stay away did you? I sure didn't!

The Austin City Council is considering a plan to get 35% of its power generation through renewable sources by 2020. A group called Austinites for Action is protesting that, claiming that it would be a 57% rate hike. Who's the executive director? That's right, Carole Keeton Strayhorn! The Austin Chronicle has the plan's authors saying:

That 57% figure is a far cry from the city's rate increase estimate of 20%. "Their numbers are just wrong," says Chris Herbert, chair of the city's Resource Management Commission. Aside from obscuring the fact that the 20% increase wouldn't be fully in place for another decade (and again, it's only a long-term policy proposal at this point, inevitably subject to further revision once it's adopted), AFA also includes other costs the utility will face, green plan or not – such as, notably, energy transmission riders and inflation, wholly unrelated to the generation mix. "If Carole has a plan to eliminate inflation," says Herbert, "I would like to meet with her. ... If you don't do a damn thing, inflation's going to happen.

The AusChron also reports that the group's leaders have ties to the right...is Carole planning another party switch to run for office?

Posted by Evan @ 04/15/10 12:43 AM | Comments (0)

Twitter -- Add me

You may have noticed that I added a Twitter link on the sidebar. I've gotten a bit more active on Twitter lately, and I might occasionally put some content there that I don't here.

It's interesting, although I tend to be an early adopted of most new technological things (especially if they're not on the hardware side), I've never gotten into Twitter until recently. Perhaps partly because when it first came out I thought it was essentially mainly for texting, and I've always hated text messages. And then just no one in my circle used Twitter much, so there there was no 'network effect' for me. But I've started to appreciate it. So, if you might grant me a favor, follow me so I have more of a reason to use it. @PerryVsWorld

Posted by Evan @ 04/15/10 12:33 AM | Comments (0)

14 April 2010

Rice alum Rep. John Kline is leading recruitment for Tim Pawlenty's prospective presidential campaign.

Posted by Evan @ 04/14/10 05:03 PM | Comments (0)

Mrs. White likes Mr. White

Chron columnist Lisa Falkenberg jumps on quick when Bill White talks about the dropout rate. I don't seem to recall her caring much when Kay said it though.

Posted by Evan @ 04/14/10 04:57 PM | Comments (0)

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