Rick Perry vs World

28 May 2005

AP on KBH

Suzanne Gamboa from the AP wire summarizes the potential office shuffling that will occur if KBH challenges Dewhurst.

In a Texas-size political chess game, Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison is playing the role of queen. She plans to announce this summer whether she'll try to hold her Senate seat in 2006 or challenge fellow Republican Rick Perry for Texas governor.

In the meantime, a long line of officials and political hopefuls are plotting their next moves depending on which way she jumps. I won't bother quoting any of the rest. If you read this blog, I highly doubt you'd find anything new.

But the article is further proof that this race will be big, if it happens.

Posted by Evan @ 05/28/05 02:03 AM | Comments (0)

26 May 2005

Out of town

I'm the best man in my roommate's wedding this weekend, so I should be out of town and unlikely to post much.

If Kay announces, I'll try to update. Otherwise, you probably won't see me until Monday.

Posted by Evan @ 05/26/05 11:24 AM | Comments (0)

25 May 2005

Anecdotal Kinky Thoughts

A few days ago while at Target, I saw two bumper stickers on upscale cars that both also sported Kerry Edwards bumper stickers.

It got me thinking: how seriously should we take Kinky?

My answer below the jump.

[Read More]

Posted by Evan @ 05/25/05 03:44 PM | Comments (8)

Today's Chuck Todd column

Chuck Todd writes his National Journal column (pricy subsciption required) on politicians who "aren't running in races this year and next even though it's what they'd rather be doing."

Kay Bailey Hutchison for Texas governor:
We're not 100 percent sure she's going to fit into this category. Despite all the public attempts by prominent Republicans to dissuade her from running, Hutchison may just run anyway. Republican Gov. Rick Perry isn't that popular right now -- he's popular enough to defeat a Democrat -- but he may not be able to withstand a primary challenge from someone as popular as Hutchison. Still, a primary is a divisive thing and we won't be surprised if Hutchison gets talked out of this run. Up until last week, we were convinced she would make a bid, but given Sen. Mitch McConnell's (R) comments about the leadership opportunities awaiting Hutchison in the next Senate, we're now convinced there's a concerted effort to keep her out.

Posted by Evan @ 05/25/05 12:11 PM | Comments (0)

22 May 2005

Filibuster, confirmation, nominations and KBH

It looks like Bill Frist has decided to attempt tomorrow to invoke cloture on Justice Priscilla Owen's nomination to the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals.

It may follow that Frist will seek a ruling from the chair on whether judicial nominations can be filibustered (known to the right as the "constitutional option" and to the left as the "nuclear option").

It will be interesting to watch what role Hutchison and Cornyn play, since they'll likely take the lead in lauding their fellow Texan as someone worthy of the federal appellate bench.

Posted by Evan @ 05/22/05 06:58 PM | Comments (0)

Early weekend roundup

1. KBH has co-sponsored legislation with John Cornyn and George Allen that would lift the ban on guns in DC. Kay: "I think the law is wrong, it is unconstitutional and I think every woman in the District of Columbia should have the ability to protect herself in her home." Even Perry's campaign manager Luis Saenz agrees: "That's a great bill. We wish her well, hope she can get it through the Senate."

Rare moments of comity.

Also, we learn that Kay has a .357 caliber Magnum revolver, which she likes to keep close by when she sleeps (or at least used to).

2. Kay's regional director Jason Roth Fuller expects a gubernatorial race decision to come in June. No surprise there; they've been fairly consistent in saying that a decision would occur after the legislative session.

3. The Houston Chronicle reprints former Gov. Bill Clements editorial that appeared in the Dallas Morning News last week.

4. Perry is telling Speaker Craddick and Lt Gov Dewhurst that he won't call the Legislature back for a special session. Perry obviously wants to keep the pressure on the Legislature now.

5. Peggy Fikac has a column on Perry's take on school finance: "let the process work." It also contains an interesting quote from Perry, suggesting this is how he sees himself:

"If you are a fiscal conservative, if you are a person who can stand up and say, 'Here is how you run government effectively' ... and then you do what you say you're going to do, I think you'll be a successful governor," [Perry] said. "If, on the other hand, you go out there and run as a fiscal conservative and then come back and govern as a fiscal liberal, they'll beat ya."

Posted by Evan @ 05/22/05 06:42 PM | Comments (1)

20 May 2005

Hutchison responds to Clements

Todd Gillman got Senator Hutchison to respond to yesterday's op-ed by Bill Clements endorsing both Perry and Hutchison for re-election.

"Look, it's very obvious that the Perry campaign is putting things out on a weekly basis to discourage me from running for governor," she said Thursday when asked about a guest column Mr. Clements wrote for The Dallas Morning News' opinion page. "I will make the decision based on what I think is the best thing I could do for Texas."

...

Perry campaign manager Luis Saenz said the campaign had nothing to do with the piece.

"I don't think anyone can make Governor Clements do anything," he said. "He just feels like thousands of other Republicans feel."

Hutchison's quote sounds to me like something a candidate would say.

Posted by Evan @ 05/20/05 12:18 AM | Comments (0)

19 May 2005

"Senior Bush aides"

Bob Campell of the Midland Reporter Telegram has some reactions to the USNews report that White House aides think KBH is unlikely to run.

Hutchison campaign manager Terry Sullivan of Austin said the senator won't announce her decision until sometime this summer -- after the state legislative session ends. "She will make her decision based on what's best for Texas," said Sullivan.

Attributing the report's circulation to the Perry campaign, Sullivan said, "Sen. Hutchison has been a party activist for decades, pre-Ronald Reagan back in the 1970s. She feels very dedicated to Texas and the Republican Party.

"She's focused on doing her job, serving Texas in the U.S. Senate. He (Perry) really needs to be focused on doing his. There are a lot of critical issues before them this session."

Campbell also quotes Midland locals Clayton Williams and former RNC Committeeman Ernie Angelo. Both are pleased that Kay might not run.

My question: is this really the opinion of White House aides? Or, rather, is it a hint from Rove & Co. that they don't want Kay to run?

For years Rove has helped clear the fields of what might have otherwise been contested primaries. Rove may be busy now, but I somehow doubt that he's completely lost interest in Texas, given that he spearheaded the GOP takeover of Texas.

I tend to think that Hutchison is more likely to run than not, which leads me to wonder.

Posted by Evan @ 05/19/05 07:25 AM | Comments (1)

Clements op-ed endorsing Perry

Former Governor Bill Clements has an op-ed in today's Dallas Morning News. Clements endorses Perry and

In 1978, the Democratic Party was in the majority and dominating the political landscape. Democrats held all statewide offices, except for the Senate seat of John Tower. They controlled both the House and Senate in the state Legislature. They occupied the vast majority of local offices.

Conventional wisdom informed us that this was the political reality for years, if not decades, to come.

Then a funny thing happened on the way to the polling place. Conventional wisdom was turned on its head.

Democrats engaged in a contentious primary for the gubernatorial nomination. John Hill battled incumbent Dolph Briscoe. The Democratic Party ended the primary divided and embittered, with the liberal and conservative wings fractured. It did not heal in time for November, and some would say that it has never healed. Many conservative Democrats started voting Republican in 1978 and eventually became Republicans.

The majority party that could not lose did exactly that in 1978 to an outsider, a successful drilling contractor who had no previous political experience. Me.

I tell this story to send a message about 2006. Make no mistake, if Texas Republicans have a blood bath in a primary battle between Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison and Gov. Rick Perry, we are providing the Democrats an opening to make a speedy comeback to political prominence. We risk dividing our party for decades to come. This is serious business, and Republicans should take heed.

There are some key differences here, in my mind.

The Texas Democratic Party had a history of internal warfare between different wings of the party. Many of these folks didn't necessarily get along well, and for good reason. Plus, a big section of the Democratic Party was really more compatible ideologically in the Republican Party...folks like Phil Gramm. So it was significantly easier to get people to vote for the non-dominant party back when Democrats ruled.

Today's Texas GOP isn't very similar to yesterday's Texas Dems. No similar history of bitterness, no ideological warfare, and no section of the GOP that would be more comfortable with in the Democratic Party.

Moreoever, the 1978 primary was on May 6,The 2006 Texas primary is March 7. There will be two months longer for wounds to heal.

That said, no doubt Clements' point is valid. The bloodier the primary, the greater the Democrats chance in the general.

Some observers point out that Republicans have had contested gubernatorial primaries. I've been in several, including in 1978. But those were tame. Every indication suggests that a Perry-Hutchison primary would be something very different � something no one but partisan Democrats would enjoy.

Discipline, focus and teamwork have been at the foundation of Republican success in recent years. Texas Republicans are the majority. We are elected to run the state government, and we win more local seats every year. If we lose our focus, if we fight each other, we may end up with a result few "experts" believe is possible.

I support Mr. Perry for re-election. I support Ms. Hutchison for re-election. It is best for Texas and the Republican Party.

Mr. Perry is a strong conservative. He has confronted many challenges and achieved impressive results. In 2003, he faced a $10 billion budget shortfall and solved it without a tax increase. He championed reform of the civil justice system to stop junk lawsuits and improve our business climate for job creation. He established an enterprise fund to attract companies to Texas. He has helped direct $7 billion in new resources to Texas classrooms.

He also took on the tough job of congressional redistricting. The Democrats did not like it. Neither did many in the media. But redistricting was needed in Texas to more accurately reflect the state and to help President Bush. Texas redistricting resulted in more congressmen supporting our nation's war on terrorism and the president's economic policies.

Ms. Hutchison also deserves re-election. The senator serves on the key Armed Services and Appropriations committees. If she leaves the Senate, Texas loses seniority and seats on these committees. Moreover, as Mr. Bush leads the war on terrorism, works to reform Social Security and fights to appoint common-sense judges, we need a strong, seasoned voice helping him.

Historians tell us that if we do not learn from history, we are doomed to repeat the mistakes of history.

The Republican Party today is dominant in Texas. However, our success is not preordained. Tens of thousands of volunteers and scores of tireless candidates worked for many decades to realize this success. We won. But we are one bad election cycle away from giving back ground, as the Democrats did in 1978.

I've been there when we were the minority party and when the majority party turned its guns on itself. When the smoke cleared, the political world in Texas was turned upsidedown. The Democrats gave us the opportunity in 1978. Let's remember that and not do the same in 2006.

I agree that Democrats will watch with glee. Party elders are understandably nervous at the thought of a bloody primary, because it will increase the Democrats' chances, even if only marginally.

That said, I've already gone on record giving Democrats very long odds for unseating either Perry or Hutchison (or Strayhorn for that matter).

Posted by Evan @ 05/19/05 07:21 AM | Comments (0)

18 May 2005

White House thinks Kay won't run?

A reader passes this along:

White House Doesn't Think Hutchinson Will Run For Texas Governor. US News Bulletin had learned senior Bush aides have concluded that Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchinson likely won't take on Texas Republican Gov. Rick Perry in a GOP primary next year. Instead, they believe that Hutchinson will run for reelection in 2006 and serve one more term. Hutchinson has been considering a race, but White House insiders believe that her Senate schedule is too packed to allow enough time for her to run.

Also, GOP strategists believe that her pro-choice position on abortion will mute conservative support for her. While a primary race leading up to the 2006 election is still far off, the contest is picking up steam, with former Rep. Chris Bell setting up an exploratory committee to review the race. As part of their pitch, his team is promoting Bell's complaint about House Majority Leader Tom DeLay to the ethics committee while he was in Washington.

I haven't been able to verify this, but I believe it likely to be true.

If anyone can verify that the item is from US News Bulletin -- apparently a coordinated effort between US News and Bulletin News -- then send me an email.

Posted by Evan @ 05/18/05 09:41 PM | Comments (0)

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