Rick Perry vs World

19 July 2006

Throw away post

Sometimes I think that sociologists should study the Pink Lady's comments.

Posted by Evan @ 07/19/06 06:08 PM | Comments (0)

18 July 2006

State Sen. Eddie Lucio to back Strayhorn

State senator Eddie Lucio is going to endorse Strayhorn, reports Harvey Kronberg. Lucio says that he told teachers in his district -- he's from Brownsville -- that he would support whoever the TFT endorsed. Since the TFT endorsed Strayhorn, he's going to back her.

Posted by Evan @ 07/18/06 06:02 PM | Comments (0)

Sometimes, my heart bleeds...

A week or two ago, Chris Bell met with bloggers in Houston. Here's part of a writeup from Stace Medellin:

One of the bloggers asked about the "I" issue, immigration. Apparently, it was a problem to the questioner. According to Chris Bell, "why should we make a Republican issue our issue?" Bell also asked the question, "Has anyone at this table lost a job that was taken up by an immigrant?" Now, that's the type of response ALL of the candidates should be using.

Let me make sure I have this straight: Chris Bell thinks that immigration isn't an issue? Period? That sure seems to be what it sounds like, particularly with the context that Medellin gave Bell's remarks.

I think anyone running for office in the state of Texas should have spent some time thinking about where he or she wants to take Texas. This includes thinking about our border region, and immigration is obviously an issue for the border and the state. While it's a federal issue, anyone who wants to be governor of Texas should have thought about the issue.

Perhaps Bell is quoted out of context (although Jason Stanford linked to Medellin's post, which seems like tacit approval), but I read Medellin's post at the same time I was finishing Hard Line. Hard Line is written by Ken Ellingwood, a former LA Times reporter, who relied on his reporting to offer a portrait of the border in Arizona and California. Ellingwood wrote a remarkably evenhanded book that presents the point of view of everyone involved on the border in Arizona and California. I highly recommend it.

Does Bell not think there's a problem? Ellingwood elicits real sympathy for ranchers whose lands are trampled every night, and who are consequently afraid to sleep at night (in the midst of immigrants, there are also drug traffickers). These innocent bystanders have their livelihood and their quality of life threatened. Frankly, I was shocked at what some people who live on the border have had to go through.

Way more importantly, what about the fact that in 5 years in the late 1990s** (I believe the book was written in 2002), almost 1000 immigrants in just California and Arizona suffered horrific, gruesome dehyrdration and heat stroke deaths. One might agree or disagree with their decision to enter America, but surely no one deserves to die such a disgusting death simply for immigrating. How many more have died since?

[For comparison's sake, let's compare the number of people affected by the death penalty and immigration. About 150 people were executed in the state of Texas during a similar time period. In other words, magnitudes more innocent people are dead from the status quo of immigration compared to convicted murderers who get the death penalty.]

In short, Bell's words are not the words of a statesman. Immigration is not a Republican issue. It's an issue which demands the attention of serious political leaders. I don't know what the solution is, but I do know that ignoring the problem raises serious issues as to whether Bell is ready to lead the great state of Texas.

UPDATE: ** The death toll spiked because border enforcement increased around 93-95 (eg Operation Gatekeeper), forcing illegal immigrants to take more dangerous routes through the desert. Those programs have mostly stayed in place since this time frame, so I assume that the death toll is similar.

Posted by Evan @ 07/18/06 10:43 AM | Comments (0)

Redistricting, LULAC v. Perry, speculation

I've just slogged through LULAC v. Perry again. Sigh. Redistricting law is a murky cesspool of shifting standards which the Supreme Court decides to "clarify" every 10 years. At least Congress didn't decide to change any of the text of the Voting Rights Act, because then it would really be fun.

A few thoughts:

1. Kennedy definitely seems to want Webb County put back together.

2. Kennedy definitely seems to have a problem with Doggett's district. It seems to me that he suggests that having Austin and the border in the same district isn't going to fly with his swing vote.

3. Stevens wins the award for funniest line:

This is a suit in which it is perfectly clear that judicially manageable standards enable us to decide the merits of a statewide challenge to a political gerrymander. Applying such standards...
Perfectly clear? Please articulate what those standards are, Justice Stevens, instead of just telling us that there are standards and that you're applying them.

4. The left-leaning justices were footnoted several different times that Justice Scalia had called sec 5 VRA compliance a compelling state interest. That heightens the scrutiny that they can use in future cases.

If I'm right, then the court will look for a plan that a) puts Webb County back together, b) makes CD25 (Doggett) more compact, c) protects incumbents, d) alters as few districts as possible.

Analyzing the state's plan in detail might have made it look like I really thought that was a likely plan for the court to adopt. Actually, I just happened to have free time, and I'm a redistricting junkie. I think I just missed spending hours of free time on Redviewer.

Most likely scenario: the court starts from scratch and draws their own map. Second most likely scenarios: state's plan or LULAC Plan B. But that's just conjecture on my part. I really have no clue as to what the court will decide to do in regards to ordering a new primary or not, but my operating assumption would be that we get new primaries.

Posted by Evan @ 07/18/06 09:29 AM | Comments (0)

A good sign for Texas Republicans?

Via Tyler Cowen, I found this column by Sergio Munoz:

For at least two decades, Mexican pundits had forecast that the millions of Mexican voters in the U.S. could decide Mexico's elections. Such expectations were substantially lowered earlier this year when Mexican electoral authorities and the Mexican Congress, fearful of the possible logistical nightmare of counting millions of ballots cast abroad, limited eligible voters to the 4 million Mexican citizens who were already registered. If 400,000 of them voted, these officials said, they would declare their experiment in getting Mexicans abroad to cast ballots a complete success.

The pundits not only badly misjudged how many Mexicans in the United States would turn out, they were wrong about who those voters would pick.

Beginning in the 1980s with Cuauhtemoc Cardenas, founder of the Democratic Revolution Party and a former presidential candidate, the Mexican left believed that the Mexican diaspora would be its natural constituency. After all, these Mexicans left their country because of its failure to provide them with jobs and a decent standard of living. Give them an opportunity to vote and they would vote for the radical change called for by the left.

As it turned out, of the 28,000 in the U.S. who cast presidential ballots, 58% voted for Felipe Calderon, the conservative candidate — and declared winner — who fervently favors free market economics.

Such a small number to have voted, but definitely a good sign for Republicans that Calderon was such an overwhelming victor. It's particularly surprising because, as I understand it, the majority of Mexican immigrants are supposed to come from poor and left-leaning states. Of course, the sample might not be representative, but on the whole it's more likely a portent of good things to come for Republicans.

Maybe if more Mexican expats had voted in 88, then Salinas' PRI wouldn't have had to steal the election from the PRD and Cardenas.

Posted by Evan @ 07/18/06 07:58 AM | Comments (0)

17 July 2006

Chris Bell on the air

Chris Bell is going on the air to try to raise name ID.

Bell's spokesman, Jason Stanford, said the ads won't run in Houston, the largest city in the state where Bell served as a congressman and city council member and has better name identification. The ads will run in cities where Bell is not so well known by voters and will appear throughout the day during major network programming, Stanford said.

You can watch the ad on YouTube.

Posted by Evan @ 07/17/06 11:11 PM | Comments (1)

Who needs polling when you have anecdotes?

Janet Elliott filed a piece in the Houston Chronicle looking at the petition gathering by Strayhorn and Friedman in Houston/Harris County. I'm not really sure what the point is, since signature gathering doesn't tell us anything. You gotta love anecdotes like this though:

One of those volunteers was Katy Whelan, a 47-year-old resident of the Timbergrove neighborhood who works in the oil and gas industry and collected 400 signatures for Friedman. She said most of the signatures were gathered at a popular weekend farmers market in the Heights.

She also tapped her friends and neighbors at wine parties and other gatherings.

"We're all like-minded, pretty much basically Democrats," she said. "Everybody is such a fan of Kinky's."

Joyce Aquil, a 60-year-old educator, remembers signing a petition for Strayhorn at the Buffalo Soldiers National Museum in the Third Ward. But she acknowledged last week that she didn't know much about the candidate.

"What's her claim to fame?" she asked. "Is she the grandmother person?"

Aquil said she considers herself an independent. "I usually vote all over the board. I'm not partial to a particular party," she said.

Brad McClellan, Strayhorn's son and campaign manager, said the campaign is pleased with its diverse support.

"We've always had very good support from African-Americans and Hispanics," he said.

Posted by Evan @ 07/17/06 11:04 PM | Comments (0)

Your loving don't pay my bills

Money totals from the latest filing deadline:

Rick Perry -- $10 million cash on hand, $4.7 million raised, $6 million spent

Carole Keeton Strayhorn -- $8 million cash on hand, $3.1 million raised in six months, $3.1 million spent in 6 months.

Chris Bell -- $0.65 million cash on hand, $1.6 million raised in six months ($1.3 since end of Feb), spent $0.53 million since end of Feb.

Kinky Friedman -- $.49 million cash on hand, $1.5 million raised in six months, spent $1.2 million in six months

Here's Kelley Shannon's lead for the AP:

Republican Gov. Rick Perry revealed Monday he had more than $10 million in campaign cash entering the final four months of the Texas governor's race, putting him in a strong position against four challengers.
Perry's campaign reported raising $4.7 million since January, some in large chunks from wealthy individual donors and powerful political action committees.

Comptroller Carole Keeton Strayhorn, an independent candidate and Perry's top rival in raising money, reported more than $8 million in cash on hand as of June 30, the end of the campaign finance report period. Some of her largest contributions came from wealthy trial lawyers who typically donate to Democrats.

Perry and Strayhorn have a healthy money advantage in the wild five-way governor's race that includes Democrat Chris Bell, independent candidate Kinky Friedman and Libertarian James Werner.

Posted by Evan @ 07/17/06 10:56 PM | Comments (0)

16 July 2006

Strayhorn gets one state teacher endorsement, Bell gets Houston affiliate

Janet Elliot in the Houston Chronicle:

The Texas Federation of Teachers on Friday endorsed independent gubernatorial candidate Carole Keeton Strayhorn, but the group's Houston affiliate is sticking with Democrat Chris Bell.

The 51,000-member group became the second teachers union to endorse Strayhorn, the Republican comptroller running for governor as an independent. In January, she got the nod from the Texas State Teachers Association.

"As a former teacher and longtime supporter of public education, Strayhorn has shown that she will keep the interests of our schoolchildren at the top of her agenda," said Linda Bridges, TFT president.

...

Fallon said she's asking the TFT not to send any mailers endorsing Strayhorn to the group's Houston members.

It's certainly not good for Bell when he can't get the endorsement of one of the most reliably Democratic groups in the state.

Bell and his campaign staff have often said that they'll win if they get all the Democrats to vote for the Democrat. I'm not sure that's true anyway -- though it might be -- but it doesn't look like Bell has a good chance of a unified Democratic bloc.

Posted by Evan @ 07/16/06 10:35 PM | Comments (1)

A Norquist mention does not a boomlet make

Grover Norquist keeps plugging Perry as a possible 2008 presidential contender:

Watch Rick Perry, Texas...second-best governor in the country. He cut spending $10 billion after Bush left because somebody had been spending too much money in Texas before Perry had taken over. And he could go, "Hey, I've done this before guys."

Norquist has to know that there's no way that two consecutive governors of Texas will become President of the United States.

Posted by Evan @ 07/16/06 10:14 PM | Comments (0)

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