Rick Perry vs World

16 July 2006

Ballots, conventional wisdom, and Grandmas

As if to prove my point from a post a few days ago, the Midland Reporter-Telegram pens an editorial including the line:

Strayhorn maintains "Grandma" is part of her identity. Of course, her campaign slogan maintains she is "one tough Grandma." No one really believes Strayhorn thought she could actually get the "Grandma" tag on the ballot, but she used the opportunity to get some much needed free publicity.

Emphasis is mine. Like I said, I can understand why she wants to be "Grandma" on the ballot:

Strayhorn's own campaign surveys indicate her name identification jumps about 10 points if "Grandma" is attached, thanks to the "One Tough Grandma" political slogan she has used for several years.

I believe her name ID is higher right now when associated with Grandma, but it seems to me like the point of her paid media should be to splash "Carole Strayhorn. One Tough Grandma." over every ad she does.

So it's a mild loss not to be on the ballot as Grandma, but the greater cost is further solidifying a reputation.

Posted by Evan @ 07/16/06 08:28 PM | Comments (0)

15 July 2006

Literally, it's a five-way race

San Antonio EN's Bruce Davidson files a column on the fifth candidate in the race for governor, Libertarian James Werner.

So, if there is a debate or two -- and I assume there will be -- will independents Strayhorn and Friedman support including Werner in a debate?

Posted by Evan @ 07/15/06 07:15 PM | Comments (0)

14 July 2006

Redistricting maps

1. The State's map: The map submitted by Attorney General Abbott -- presumably after consultations the triumvirate of Perry, Dewhurst, and Craddick -- avoids pairing any incumbents. The districts look very different on the map, but aren't nearly as different as they look, since lots of the shifted counties are not population-centers. Here's what happens to each incumbent affected:

Bonilla -- His old district's population center was northwest Bexar county (San Antonio), then took in Kendall and Kerr before stretching down to take in the western half of of Webb County (Laredo) and then stretching all the way along the border to El Paso (stopping before population gets dense). His new district is a very similar section of NW Bexar County (though it looks like it is slightly different) combined with Kerr and Kendall again, but adds Blanco County and a similar section of western Travis County (eg, basically all of western Travis that isn't in the city of Austin).

Cuellar -- His old district was centered around eastern Webb County (Laredo) and stretched from the Zapata and Webb county borders up into southern Bexar County (the other population center) and then further north into Guadalupe and even Hays County (no kidding). His new district reunites Webb County and then takes all of Bonilla's old district extending along the border over to about the El Paso city limits. Cuellar still has part of Bexar County, but instead of all of southern Bexar, he now has southwestern Bexar. I'm guessing that Cuellar will have 50%-60% less Bexar County residents in his district compared to what he used to have.

Doggett: His old district stretched from the Starr County border up into his base of Travis County, where is had the southeastern portion of Travis County. It is an odd looking district, but at least it is mainly contiguous whole counties from the border up into Austin. His new district subtracts all of Travis County, and then adds southeastern Bexar County, and then five counties south of Bexar: Wilson, Atascosa, Frio, La Salle, and McMullen.

Lamar Smith: His old district was an odd shape of northeast Bexar, Comal, Hays, Blanco, and western Travis (the part that Bonilla has now). His new district has a similar-but-not-identical-northeast Bexar, Guadalupe (from Doggett), Comal, Hays, and the southastern portion of Travis County (from Doggett).

Ramifications:

1a. I don't know of Ciro Rodriguez lives in the portion of Bexar County still in the district, but I don't think it matters. [134k of the districts 333k Latinos are in Bexar County, whereas Webb County has 182k of the district's Latino's. The old district had 201k Latinos in Bexar and only 96k Latinos in Webb.] Any primary challenge to Cuellar would come from state Rep. Richard Raymond instead of Ciro Rodriguez. While Cuellar's district looks MUCH different on paper, I'm guessing that population wise he probably represents 50% or so of it right now. I would think he'd be a favorite over Raymond.

1b. Depending on whether new primaries are ordered -- a key legal question -- will determine whether Raymond gets to challenge Cuellar this cycle or have to wait until March 2008.

2. Bonilla is re-elected, but instead of having a San Antonio suburbs plus border district, he now has an Austin suburbs plus Hill Country and SA suburbs district. His partisanship doesn't change very much, maybe a slight twinge (1% or so) less GOP. This becomes a district that has 46% of Travis County. Why is this important? Bonilla is largely expected to run for statewide office in the next few cycles. When the seat becomes open, the geography will definitely favor someone from Travis County.

3. Doggett should be very vulnerable to a primary challenge from a Latino. On the other hand, he should've been pretty vulnerable already, and yet somehow managed to get 64% of the vote against Leticia Hinojosa in the inaugural primary of the district. I'm not sure who'd run against him, but he's entirely isolated from his traditional base of Austin.

Doggett's old district was 63% Hispanic among the voting age population. His new one isn't much more -- only 66% -- but when you take out his Travis County base, Doggett should lose. In 2004, Doggett won by winning 18,299 to Hinojosa's 2,425 in Travis County. That was almost all his margin of victory. You have to assume that Doggett is done right now. It was impressive when Doggett won in 2004, but it would be amazing if he were to win under this map.

4. I don't know what's up with Lamar Smith. He's facing a semi-credible candidate this cycle, but I can't really tell how the partisanship of his district changed by eye-balling it. UPDATE: Actually, his new district is about 60% GOP. His old district was 60% GOP too.

Note: All the preceeding analysis is based on the map submitted by the Attorney General because I think it has the best chance of being adopted or being the basis for what is adopted by the court. Of course, even if it's the best chance, that doesn't mean that it's likely. I think it's still under 50%. LULAC's maps are probably almost as likely.

2. LULAC maps: Charles Kuffner looks at the LULAC maps.

UPDATES: Sprinkled throughout the post as I further research.

(post in progress)

Posted by Evan @ 07/14/06 04:47 PM | Comments (0)

12 July 2006

Strayhorn to sue over ballot name

Here's the AP:

Independent gubernatorial candidate Carole Keeton Strayhorn sued the Texas secretary of state Wednesday in her attempt to have the nickname "Grandma" listed with her name on the Nov. 7 ballot.

Strayhorn had promised to sue earlier this week after Secretary of State Roger Williams ruled that "Grandma" is a slogan, not a nickname permitted on the ballot.

At the same time, Williams allowed independent candidate Kinky Friedman to be listed as Richard "Kinky" Friedman on the ballot. Friedman has used the nickname for years.

I'm not quite sure what Strayhorn and her campaign are thinking. She could be trying to use free media to have voters associate her new name Strayhorn with her long-time slogan, "One Tough Grandma." Or she could just be firing a long shot, hoping that a judge will agree with her.

The problem is that the state's political chattering class thinks the whole ballot name is silly, and this lawsuit particularly so. She already disagree with Secretary of State Williams once before, and the courts agreed with Williams. Both times, Friedman's campaign declined to sue the Secretary of State. Even more damaging for Strayhorn, it helps cement the growing reputation that she's...running a personal campaign rather than an issues campaign. Paul Burka (whose new blog is already probably the best in the state) articulates this perfectly:

I can't quite get rid of the idea that the Strayhorn campaign has tended to view the governor's race as a video game in which the object is to score points by zapping Rick Perry and his toadies in made-up battles. That isn't how elections are won and lost.

I once worked for a candidate who reminds me of Strayhorn. She was running for re-election, but she hadn't managed to get along with any of her colleagues. She was the only woman, and she quickly came to regard her colleagues as a good ol' boys club. Like Strayhorn, she had blistering words for those she disagreed with, arguing that she only worried about the people who elected her. In my view, she was substantively right on most of the issues, but in retrospect she could have been much more collegial. If she'd done so, she'd probably have been more effective.

By the time of her re-election, the newspapers were very unsympathetic and her colleagues all supported her opponent. She lost, because the conventional wisdom (particularly among the media) was that my candidate just couldn't get along well enough with people to effectively represent her constituents.

Based on what I've seen for the past few months, Carole Keeton Strayhorn could learn from my story. It seemed to me (especially in the initial redistricting aftermath) like the Texas media was ready to be sympathetic to Strayhorn, but the tone of Strayhorn's coverage has certainly changed since, and deservedly so.

Posted by Evan @ 07/12/06 11:00 PM | Comments (1)

Statesman's Selby talks to Bryan Eppstein

Gardner Selby talked up the state's political consultants, and filed this state of the race:

Republican operative Bryan Eppstein, who is not part of Perry's inner circle, cites voter turnouts and election results since 1988 as indicators that the gubernatorial election is over: Perry wins.

History says that GOP voters solidly outnumber Democrats and that more voters align with the parties than with independents. Barring a seismic surge in turnout (which reached a piddling 36 percent four years ago), the Dept. of Conventional Expectations advises Perry to plan his inauguration.

Eppstein skipped one stone toward Perry's challengers: "Don't spend any of your personal money" on the campaign.

I had asked eight pols not working for the hopefuls to speculate how Friedman, Chris Bell or Carole Keeton Strayhorn might surprise.

They hem-hawed:

-Bell wins by staying the tortoise in the race, keeping his shell up and head down. The Democratic nominee and former U.S. House member hopes fireworks set off by other candidates explode in their faces. If Democratic voters stick with him and if fiscal conservatives desert Perry over the new business tax, maybe he edges ahead. The general election is won by whoever leads, regardless of hurdling 50 percent. Like other challengers, though, Bell hunts a wake-up issue reminding voters that he's running.

-Strayhorn, the state comptroller running as an independent, suffers from not having a party behind her to reinforce her message. But she could topple Perry if drifting conservatives and tired-of-losing Democrats warm to her zeal, especially if she remains the best-funded challenger (think TV ads). Maybe she vexes Perry in debate or benefits from a scandal not foreseen by Los Pundits. Perry has a record open to critique. But she does, too.

-Friedman cannot win, most pundits aver, because voters will tire of/grow squeamish at his parade o' jokes marinated in venom. Yet if he hammers three memorable issues (like George W. Bush, 1994), who knows? The humorist, who draws the attention of the national media simply for cracking wise with a cigar in hand, promises a lively finish, surely fueling a post-election book.

Eppstein sees Perry winning, with Bell probably placing second as most voters stick with the major parties . . .

I wish Selby had given us more of what Epstein said, as I think that would have been more informative.

I don't often update what I think will happen, because my analysis hasn't really changed. The macro-situation is the same as it was since Strayhorn first announced she'd run as an independent. Perry is an overwhelming favorite to be re-elected. Bell is still the most likely to finish second. Perry managed to get out of school-finance alive, and he still has his base. Bell is having a hard time keeping his base together, and even if he did, it still might not be enough to pass Perry. Moreover, he flat-out just won't have the resources to compete, but he does have the ballot line which will deliver enough of the vote to be 2nd. Friedman is running a turnout campaign, and we have a name for turnout campaigns: losers. Besides, Friedman just doesn't seem to have the discipline to grow beyond a certain segment of the electorate (although he could prove me wrong.) Strayhorn hasn't found the silver bullet issue that will give her a shot.

Posted by Evan @ 07/12/06 10:30 PM | Comments (0)

Posting at BadSports

I'll be joining the illustrious team over at BlogHouston's Bad Sports.

I'll probably not comment too much. When I do, I'll probably comment mostly on the Texans, the Texans draft failure this year (can you say Mike Mamula?), the Dynamo, and some sabermetrics. And maybe the occasional Rice sports. I won't be averse to writing about my inexplicable fandom of TO either: does that mean I have to root for the Cowboys?

Posted by Evan @ 07/12/06 09:51 PM | Comments (2)

Friedman: Poll for me.

Kinky Friedman proposes that media outlets hold online polls.

His campaign's latest proposal, which calls on the state's news organizations and blogs to conduct informal Web site polls to determine the true leader in the race for governor, has a certain flimflam quality to it.

In a way, Friedman has a very good point. Traditional polls, which rely on consistent voters, aren't an accurate barometer in a race with two well-known independents trying to topple GOP incumbent Gov. Rick Perry.

Whether Republicans or Democrats want to admit it, Friedman has gotten the attention of the state's vast pockets of residents who are sick of all politicians.

On the other hand, Friedman has got to be kidding if he wants us to take a bunch of Web polls with more than a grain of salt.

While these polls routinely allow only one vote to be cast from any single computer, nothing is to stop an organized entity like a political campaign, labor union, church community or a building full of college frat boys from stacking the ballot box by issuing an online call to arms.

Not only that, such polls are mere snapshots of who happens to be viewing a Web site on a given day. Nobody really has any way of knowing if the respondents are 8 or 80, or if they intend to vote.

But these are mere details to Friedman's campaign. In an e-mail to the media Friday, Friedman touted the results of eight recent online polls from Amarillo to San Antonio that all had him running in first place.

Asked if this was a strategically selected assortment of polls, Friedman spokeswoman Laura Stromberg insisted "these are the only polls we're aware of," except for one. The one they left out was conducted by a Democratic blog that showered Democratic Party nominee Chris Bell with 78 percent of the "vote."

I'm not sure why the San Antonio Express-News didn't name the blog, which I assume was Burnt Orange Report.

Friedman's full release is here.

I may just do a poll myself. Why the heck not?

Posted by Evan @ 07/12/06 09:13 PM | Comments (0)

Perry first to chat with DMN

The Dallas Morning News is planning to hold online chats with each of the four gubernatorial candidates. Today Rick Perry took his turn in the chat.

I don't know how well they publicized it in their paper, but I missed any online notifications.

Posted by Evan @ 07/12/06 09:04 PM | Comments (0)

07 July 2006

Stinson: He who is without sin...

I thought SAEN columnist Roddy Stinson had a pretty interesting column this week. His point was that Democrats often get away with politicking in churches to a degree that Republicans never could.

My experience (once upon a time, I took a Sociology of Religion class that required and inspired me to visit quite a few churches) is that this is true. My (not that impartial but this doesn't need much objectivity although it's anecdotal) take: I've seen Democrat officeholders say things from the pulpit that a Republican wouldn't even say on the premises.

Posted by Evan @ 07/07/06 12:39 AM | Comments (0)

I love Texas politics

John Kelso's latest:

[Democratic Comptroller nominee Fred] Head is pointing fingers at Combs for writing a paperback 16 or 17 years ago in which the characters fall into two distinct categories: 1. hot, and 2. bothered. Head figures this will bring Combs down. "I think it's going to come to roost, and she's going to be in another line of work in November," said Head, an attorney in Athens and a former state rep.

It doesn't bother me that Combs penned a book way back when that includes: "You have to tell me I'm wonderful at least five time a day, kiss me senseless more than that, and make love to me until we're exhausted."

Being a paranoid columnist with an ego problem, I can empathize with a character who needs to be told he's wonderful at least five times a day. Besides, if Combs wins Carole Strayhorn's job, we'll go from One Tough Grandma to One Hot Mamma.

If I recall correctly, Lynne Cheney wrote a romance novel. Besides, I happen to be writing my own novel right now, and it's a bit romantic in a Fitzgerald-esque kind of way.

I realize that Head has name ID problems. And so, getting anyone (especially Kelso) to write about him is a coup. But is this really the best he could do?

Posted by Evan @ 07/07/06 12:29 AM | Comments (0)

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