Rick Perry vs World

02 August 2006

I'm long overdue for headin out of town*

For the next week I'll be up visiting my parents and going to a wedding. I leave imminently.

I don't know how much I'll be posting. Maybe it'll be lots; probably not. So I hope to have transcripts of my talk with Lt. Gov. Ben Barnes to read.

* Nod to Radney Foster.

Posted by Evan @ 08/02/06 06:24 AM | Comments (0)

31 July 2006

All the semi-latest polling

Three polls came out last week. I'd been holding off posting until I could find internals on all of them.

Ha! Internals! The joke is on me.

Numbers in the link.

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Posted by Evan @ 07/31/06 08:54 PM | Comments (0)

The Romney Report

A Rice friend of mine has launched a blog called the Romney Report, which is chronicling Romney's 08 adventures.

Romney's campaign should be interesting. On the face of it, you'd think a Mormon Republican from Massachusetts wouldn't even have a shot. Especially after he has seemingly shifted his position on abortion (I think he was actually rather consistent, but there's certainly some nuance there) and recently signed a bill mandating health-insurance.

But Romney has quite the bio: Harvard Law, Harvard MBA, Bain Consulting, Bain Capital, and the 2002 Winter Olympics. He's known for being articulate in speeches, as well as charismatic in retail politics. He should be able to raise plenty of money from his consultant and venture capital connections.
Given that there's a substantial portion of the GOP who won't vote for Giuiliani or McCain, he may have a shot at the nomination. Conventional wisdom holds that it will end up in a head-to-head battle between McCain/Giuliani and a candidate perceived as more conservative. If so, Romney has a pretty good shot to be that candidate, and anything can happen.

So it's quite possible the blog will end up being a fascinating look. Or, Romney could end up dropping out months before the first caucus. That's what makes politics fun.

Posted by Evan @ 07/31/06 08:14 PM | Comments (2)

No posting in a few days?

Transcribing is slow and I've been busy.

Posted by Evan @ 07/31/06 06:00 PM | Comments (0)

28 July 2006

Interview done; blogging soon; running now

I got done my interview with Lt. Gov. Ben Barnes a bit ago. We talked for about 45 minutes, although because I haven't done any interviews in awhile...the conversation was all over the map. I haven't decided how to put this online. My plan right now is to try to transcribe the conversation. I'll probably serialize this, because transcribing takes a long time even when you used to be a secretary like me. At the end of this -- although the sound quality isn't great -- I'll probably put up an MP3 of the whole conversation.

We didn't talk too much about current things. I may call him back and get his thoughts on some of the more current things I had for him.

I'm off for a run. When I come back I'll catch up on blogging and perhaps start transcribing.

Posted by Evan @ 07/28/06 03:53 PM | Comments (0)

27 July 2006

Interviewing Ben Barnes

I have a phone interview scheduled with Lt. Gov. Ben Barnes tomorrow afternoon to talk about redistricting.

It is yet to be determined whether I'll put up a podcast, a transcript, or simply write it up.

Pretending to be a journalist is fun.

Posted by Evan @ 07/27/06 06:22 PM | Comments (0)

25 July 2006

between the Sabine and the Rio Grande...

1. Bell attacks Strayhorn again:

In early June, a lawyer and an accountant who represent businesses challenging taxes collected by state Comptroller Carole Keeton Strayhorn's office met with a legal adviser to Strayhorn. By month's end, the visitors and their colleagues had given more than $400,000 to Strayhorn's gubernatorial campaign — 13 percent of the $3 million she raised from January through June.

Strayhorn's office said Monday that there was nothing inappropriate about the confab initiated by an Austin lawyer and a Dallas tax consultant. Aides said talk focused on drafting plans for rules implementing the business tax created by lawmakers in a spring special session.

I guess it's too dangerous to attack Friedman, because as a non-traditional/non-serious (choose your own label, I'll provide them both) candidate, he is tougher to attack.

2. Strayhorn wants in with CLOUT:

Comptroller and gubernatorial candidate Carole Keeton Strayhorn has joined a Houston taxpayer group that is suing legislative leaders over a constitutional spending cap.

Strayhorn had been named as a defendant by Edd Hendee, executive director of Citizens Lowering Our Unfair Texas, which filed the lawsuit in June. But in a court filing last week, Strayhorn said she wanted to be aligned with CLOUT.

I don't see Strayhorn weaving a consistent message for voters. It surprised me that she wants to join the lawsuit, but maybe it shouldn't: she can't seem to help herself from criticizing Perry, Dewhurst, or Craddick whenever she gets the chance.

Meanwhile, I had a few talks with different friends in the last week. I just like to take people's political pulse and see what is trickling down through the media filter. Two friends -- who I'd describe as Republicans but not partisan (one said that he planned not to vote for anyone in the gubernatorial race) -- said Strayhorn reminded them of Hillary Clinton. As far as I could tell, it was because they didn't like her tone. Interesting. We'll see how it develops.

3. The Waco Trib:

Fighting a proposed Oklahoma-to-Mexico thoroughfare has long been a pet plank in Carole Keeton Strayhorn's gubernatorial platform. Now, speaking up at public hearings about the controversial superhighway is becoming a pet tactic in her campaign strategy.

Monday evening's Trans-Texas Corridor hearing at the Waco Convention Center was the fifth one that Strayhorn has attended since the Texas Department of Transportation began its 54-meeting circuit two weeks ago, Strayhorn spokesman Mark Sanders said.

"She's trying to get to as many as she can," he said.

At each meeting, she argues that an efficient highway system does not require funding from toll roads and criticizes Gov. Rick Perry for his "secret contract with a foreign company" -- the U.S.-Spanish consortium that the state has approved to build and operate the $184 billion corridor, which would parallel Interstate 35. The Perry administration is now battling an attorney general's ruling to fully disclose the contract.

Strayhorn's tactic of touring public hearings seems to be working. Her complaints about the project are applauded at such forums by rural Texans afraid of losing their farmland.

Hailing from Paint Creek, the Guv has always been strong in rural Texas. So, if successful, Strayhorn would be striking at a piece of Perry's base. Maybe she'll be successful, but I doubt that the TTC is palpable enough yet to really change voting behavior significantly.

4. It's hard to keep up with the immigration bill machinations* in Congress, so here's Michelle Mittelstadt in the DMN on how John Cornyn and Kay Bailey Hutchison are on different paths. I still doubt anything is going to happen. Here's what I wrote on May 21, disagreeing with Michael Barone (a scary, scary place to be indeed):

I'm still skeptical that anything ultimately gets done [on immigration]. There are too many complicated issues, too many divergent political interests. And the political interests are often different long and short-term.

*Machinations doesn't exactly fit meaning-wise, but I like the way it sounds. And it's my blog, so I'll alter dictionary definitions when I want to.

Posted by Evan @ 07/25/06 05:53 PM | Comments (2)

22 July 2006

I guess it depends on who you read

SurveyUSA polls monthly on the gubernatorial approval ratings for all 50 states. In Texas, these polls are paid for by KEYE (Austin) and WOAI (San Antonio).

Here's KEYE, since I couldn't find the story on WOAI's site:

In a new, exclusive CBS 42 News poll by Survey USA, Texas Governor Rick Perry's job approval rating has slipped slightly since mid-June, but his numbers are still looking good compared to where he was a few months ago.

In the poll, taken July 20, Perry registered a 47 percent job approval rating while 48 percent said they disapproved. That's down from a 51-45 spread in mid-June.

Perry is still well ahead of the 40 percent approval ratings seen in polls for most of 2006.

Perry's strength does not bode well for his three opponents' chances heading into the full-blown campaign season.

Here's RG Ratcliffe in the Houston Chronicle:

A new poll conducted for a pair of Texas television stations has found Gov. Rick Perry's job approval rating declining and nowhere more than in Harris County.

The county has become a particular weak spot in the governor's re-election campaign, largely because of conservative anger over his inability to pass property tax appraisal caps and for adopting a business tax to pay for property tax cuts.

...

That's a drop from the June poll when Perry's approval rating was 51 percent positive and 45 percent negative.

But that June poll also was done shortly after Perry had saturated the state with television advertising touting that the average Texas homeowner will receive a $2,000 property tax cut under legislation passed in a special session he had called.

The June poll found 55 percent of those surveyed in Harris County approved of Perry's job as governor. The July poll found that number had declined to 35 percent approving and 65 percent disapproving.

Those are certainly two divergent views, aren't they?

The "poll" is by Survey USA, done 7/14-7/16 of 600 adults (not registered or likely voters), +/- 4.1%. Many pollsters don't like SUSA, as they are automated surveys, not polls. As I've written before, I think these concerns are largely unfounded. SUSA has a good track record.

I have two big problems with Ratcliffe's story:

1. His story focuses on the fact that Perry's Harris County support has dropped precipitously. The problem is that this was a subsample, and thus not very reliable. Harris County contains about 16% of Texas population. Thus, if 16% (or even 20%) of SUSA's poll was from Harris county, then only about 100-120 were surveyed.

You know where I'm going with this right? The margin of error on a subsample of 100-120 is huge. The margin of error is so big that

However, it's even more complicated than that. Because SUSA is a survey, not a poll, it's possible that the survey size could have fluctuated. Given what I know about their surveys, I don't think they ensure that they get a proportional subsample. So really, the subsample probably could be anywhere from 50-200.

How reliable is the Harris County subsample? Frankly, we really have no clue. And yet Ratcliffe didn't even mention this in his article.

2. Here's my other problem: even if you assume that the Harris County numbers are statistically valid and significant, it is pure conjecture on Ratcliffe's part that Dan Patrick, the business tax, and appraisal caps are the reason. Now, I think he might be right, but he has no evidence to back that up. He hasn't polled it. He's just taking an educated guess.

It's a nice storyline that Patrick has so much influence that he's stirred up a hornets nest. It's probably true, but since Ratcliffe has no proof, shouldn't he at least mention the possibility that (if there is a drop) it might be for other reasons?

To Ratcliffe's credit, he did add a short sentence mentioning that the survey was simply of adults, and not likely voters. He didn't explain that this is likely to understate Perry's electoral support.

In short, did Perry's approval go down in Harris County between mid-June and mid-July? Probably. But we don't know how much, because this subsample is so small and unreliable that it's not worth writing a story on. Unfortunately, Ratcliffe didn't even mention that.

Posted by Evan @ 07/22/06 12:38 PM | Comments (4)

21 July 2006

1. Chron editorializes on gubernatorial race:

Even more disheartening for the Democrats [than Bell's fundraising] is the fact that the strongholds for Kinky's successful petition drive to get on the ballot as an independent are in normally Democratic neighborhoods in Austin and Houston. In order to win a plurality, Bell needs to carry those neighborhoods and hope that Perry and Strayhorn split the state's Republican majority.

2. Kirsch writes up Strayhorn's talk in Fort Worth. Lead:

Independent gubernatorial candidate Carole Keeton Strayhorn said Wednesday that she favors higher teacher salaries and cracking down on sexual predators.

3. Hutchison announces $1mil for test reactor at UT-Permian Basin. It's good to have a senator or two on Appropriations.

4. The Wright Amendment compromise has hit some procedural hurdles in the Senate. Democratic senators Leahy and Schumer have some concerns.

5. Sec. State Roger Williams reports that Friedman and Strayhorn had 140,542 and 120,514 valid signatures, respectively, up from 137,154 and 108,512.

6. Kelley Shannon of the AP gives some ink to famers' complaints about the Trans-Texas Corridor. I'm not exactly sure why this was current; maybe it was a slow news cycle for her.

Posted by Evan @ 07/21/06 07:58 PM | Comments (0)

19 July 2006

Shorts

1. Kristen Hays covers Bell's environment presser for the AP.

2. R.A. Dyer writes on Friedman, Strayhorn and Bell's attacks on Perry over state parks.

3. RG Ratcliffe notes that two Dem statewide candidates went to a Strayhorn fundraiser. The story is most notable for this bit of humor:

"I don't believe I gave $25 to her. I bought a ticket to an event she attended," Head said, admitting last month's event was a Longview fundraiser for Strayhorn.

Neither candidate is endorsing Strayhorn.

Posted by Evan @ 07/19/06 06:22 PM | Comments (0)

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