Rick Perry vs World

11 October 2010

Shades of Adlai

In a state known for its high-dollar political donations, Democrat Bill White is calling for limits on the size of contributions to candidates for governor. But he still hasn't figured out how much is too much.

White, trying to unseat Republican Gov. Rick Perry, said Monday he would seek "bipartisan consensus" on appropriate campaign finance limits. He also renewed his call for limits of $10,000 from people the governor appoints to state boards and commissions.

Given early voting, we're getting close to closing argument time. And he's talking about campaign process issues? This is a strategy only Adlai Stevenson could love.

Posted by Evan @ 10/11/10 04:30 PM | Comments (0)

10 October 2010

Former San Antonio Mayor Ed Garza endorses Rick Perry

Former mayor of San Antonio Ed Garza endorsed Perry today.

A solid pickup by Perry to get the endorsement of a Democratic former mayor in Bill White's hometown. I know Garza considered endorsing Perry in 2006, though I don't remember if he ever followed through. Of course, quite a few Democrats shunned the 06 nominee in favor of Kinky Friedman or Carole Strayhorn.

Perry always seems to come up with a couple of surprising endorsements every cycle. I assume he puts work into developing those relationships. Perry and Garza worked together in bringing the Toyota plant to San Antonio at the end of Garza's time as mayor. Plus, they're both Aggies.

Update: Greg Jefferson for the SAEN. The article confirms that Garza endorsed Perry in 06 as well, though as I noted I think a 2010 Perry endorsement is perhaps more serious, as no one really thought Bell was a possibility to win at any point.

Posted by Evan @ 10/10/10 03:54 PM | Comments (0)

"If I ain't gonna brag, then no one else will"

Three days ago, I wrote:

Notice that Woodward doesn't say anything about Obama or his advisers. If this isn't Mark Penn speculating to Bob Woodward, I'd be foncused.

Today, Mike Allen reports what Woodward said this morning:

WOODWARD, on the furor over his comment on Secretary Clinton: "What does 'on the table' mean? ... [T]hat book is on the table, right? ... That doesn't mean you're going to read it this week. You know, maybe you're going to read it sometime. Maybe on your summer vacation. ... The point was, ... one of Hillary Clinton's strategists, Mark Penn, when she talked to him about becoming secretary of State. ... maybe she would be needed ... and take Biden's place."

I should really brag more.

Posted by Evan @ 10/10/10 01:21 PM | Comments (0)

What's happening in Perry vs White this weekend

1. What they were doing: Bill White went blockwalking in the San Antonio neighborhood where he grew up, while Rick Perry spoke to the NAACP convention. That sounds like the difference between defense and offense.

I thought this bit was a little not terribly gubernatorial:

His boots shuffling across the asphalt, gubernatorial candidate Bill White briskly jogged from house to house Saturday along the Castle Hills street where he grew up.

I can't imagine Perry doing that. Supporters of both probably see positives there, I suppose.

Having the candidate travel from door to door is certainly not the efficient form of blockwalking I learned to have candidates do when I got into politics. Odd.

2. The DMN called up the former head of a FOI Oklahoma to get him to say that Perry should release ETF records. Texas Watchdog agrees. Perry doesn't seem too likely to comply. Hopefully soon I'll have time to post about this.

3. The Houston Police Officers Union joined the Houston firefighters in endorsing Perry over their former mayor. To those of us saying for years that White underfunded the police department in Houston, that's not a surprise.

4. Christy Hoppe and Wayne Slater follow Perry and White on the campaign trail. Strangely, Slater's part does not include anything about Karl Rove.

5. Jay Root at the AP does the schedule flap.

Democrat Bill White has been pounding Republican Gov. Rick Perry for spending more time on his re-election campaign than he does running the state. But records show that White did plenty of political hobnobbing of his own while Houston mayor.

Meanwhile Wayne Slater and Ryan McNeil offer:

Although state law requires that the governor's schedule is public, Gov. Rick Perry has regularly kept some of his activities under wraps and has offered an evolving series of explanations for doing so.

Perry's office drew attention this week after accidentally releasing a one-day schedule that contained a mix of official and political meetings by the Republican.

Relatedly, Bill White's travel forms as mayor were missing details, per Texas Watchdog.

6. Looks like Perry's campaign will be using Houston's sanctuary city policy against Bill White as we hit the closing weeks

Gov. Rick Perry said Friday that he plans to make getting rid of sanctuary cities -- where officials do not enforce immigration laws -- a priority in the next legislative session.

To do that, he said, he'll make it an emergency item in the 2011 legislative session, saying that the action would help Texas law enforcement officers better enforce state laws.

Posted by Evan @ 10/10/10 12:01 AM | Comments (0)

09 October 2010

Matthew Dowd says it will be Perry vs Obama

Matthew Dowd writes in National Journal that he thinks Perry can get the Republican nomination:

I am not saying that Perry should be selected as the GOP's White House candidate in 2012; I am saying that he has a great shot at being nominated.

Republicans are going to do well -- perhaps very well -- in the midterm elections because voters are frustrated and angry, as evidenced by the passion of the tea party movement. But a number of the tea party favorites are going to lose in November, and Republicans will not be able to get anything done in Washington because, at best, they will have slim majorities in Congress. President Obama will block any attempts to roll back his initiatives.

So voter anger, especially among Republicans, won't go away. It will be like a boiling teapot, and the midterms aren't going to be enough to let the steam out. The pot will continue to boil away, and the steam will look for another place to vent. That opening will be the presidential nominating process.

An interesting, recommended read. I mostly disagree.

Two years is a really long time in politics. Dowd's voter anger continues to boil scenario is possible, but definitely under 50%. 2012 won't be the same political environment as 2010. For one thing, it'll be more partisan, as presidential election years are. Plus, ObamaCare will have lost some of its motivating impact on Republicans.

Secondly, Dowd goes on to argue that all the current Republican possibilities are marred by not speaking passionately about being anti-Washington...except for Sarah Palin. I'm not terribly convinced by this. The campaign hasn't begun yet, so it's a little early to judge whether the message resonates. Sure, there is definitely some message testing going on, especially by Pawlenty and Romney, but no one is out there truly having a sustained dialogue with voters. And, of course, if the political environment changes, then the winning message will probably be a bit different.

Dowd goes on to argue that Perry has a compelling bio, the message, and the practice from running in Texas. True enough, so far as it goes, but beyond some weaknesses Dowd overlooks, more importantly any candidate has to really want to be president. It's a long slog through cold states involving hours spent staring at a wall, phone in hand, asking for money. Perry hasn't particularly shown that he wants to be president enough to do that.

I suppose Perry's public denials wouldn't be that much of an issue. Obama pretty much set the standard by repeatedly saying that he was absolutely not going to run for president at the same time he was planning a presidential bid (see, eg, Game Change. Only in politics do we not call this lying.) On the other hand, it's probably not likely that Perry would get as much of a pass from the press, who won't be nearly as sympathetic to him as they were to primary candidate Obama.

Dowd's column is provoking, but I really don't see it. Not only would I be surprised if Perry ran, I wouldn't rank him as one of the favorites even if I were convinced he was burning to do it.

Posted by Evan @ 10/09/10 07:13 PM | Comments (2)

07 October 2010

George Will

Rep. Jeb Hensarling, the four-term Texas Republican, hopes it is true that, as has been said, Americans invariably do the right thing -- after exhausting all the alternatives. Regarding the fiscal imbalance that is driving the national debt toward 90 percent of gross domestic product, Americans are running out of alternatives.

The [Obama Deficit] commission is not, Hensarling thinks, "well designed for success." Two-thirds of its members were appointed by Democrats, and any recommendations must be supported by 14 members, meaning a minimum of two Republican appointees.

The commission's co-chairman, Erskine Bowles, former chief of staff to President Bill Clinton, has suggested that the commission should endorse balancing federal revenue (it has averaged 18 percent of GDP over the past 30 years) and outlays at 21 percent of GDP. Republicans could embrace this because spending is now 25 percent and, under current law, on reasonable assumptions, will reach 35 percent by 2035.

If this is all the commission does, Hensarling says, it may do more harm than good because it will take the focus off the need to address the long-term structural debt caused by [Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security].

I thought this was a forward looking column. While the original purpose of the commission was quite likely to have been largely political -- as commissions so often are, because they allow hard decisions to be kicked down the road to a later election -- Obama's Spending Commission may end up being a political football if Republicans take the House. Republicans will likely try to force spending cuts, a la 1994, and there will be alot of pressure on the commission to try and come up with something palatable. What the commission produces will probably impact how Obama and Republicans are able to to in order to get political traction.

Posted by Evan @ 10/07/10 11:08 PM | Comments (0)

Rasmussen: Perry 53, White 42

Rasmussen shows big movement for Perry, after having been fairly stable all year long.

10/6/2010, Rasmussen
750 likely voters, +/- 4% sample error
Perry 53
White 42
Other 2
Not Sure 4

Even two weeks ago, Rasmussen had the race down to 6 points. All the movement since that last poll has been folks undecidededs shifting towards Perry, as White's numbers are the same. It's worth noting that in the Rasmussen polls all year, White pretty much has been unable to crack 42-43%...not terribly surprising for a Democrat in Texas.

Posted by Evan @ 10/07/10 11:52 AM | Comments (0)

Woodward's publisher probably likes it

I just can't let this one go by. Bob Woodward reported that Hillary Clinton could replace Joe Biden as Obama's running mate. Here are Woodward's words:

"It's on the table. Some of Hillary Clinton's advisers see it as a real possibility in 2012. President Obama needs some of the women, Latinos, retirees that she did so well with during the [2008] primaries and, so they switch jobs, not out of the question, and the other interesting question is, Hillary Clinton could run in her own right in 2016 and be younger than Ronald Reagan when he was elected president.

Notice that Woodward doesn't say anything about Obama or his advisers. If this isn't Mark Penn speculating to Bob Woodward, I'd be foncused.

Posted by Evan @ 10/07/10 01:57 AM | Comments (0)