Rick Perry vs World

21 January 2010

Supreme Court campaign finance ruling

The Supreme Court issued a landmark campaign finance ruling today. Ben Ginsberg writes what it all means. Of course, this only affects federal races.

Posted by Evan @ 01/21/10 03:03 PM | Comments (0)

20 January 2010

A thought

What will Senator Hutchison say about this:

President Barack Obama, delivering a schoolhouse pitch Tuesday for a $1.35 billion expansion of his signature education plan, promised to "raise the bar" on what is expected of public school teachers and students.

The expansion would allow individual districts, such as the hard-pressed Fort Worth district, to apply directly for some of the federal money.

I've already mentioned that I am disposed to agree with our president*. Perry has disagreed. What will KBH do?

* On a theoretical level, I don't think that the federal government should be collecting taxes from the states to return it to them capriciously (and when I saw capriciously, I mean: according to the winner-takes-all nature of Congressional leadership). But we live in a world of second bests.

Posted by Evan @ 01/20/10 11:26 AM | Comments (0)

Challengers adjust their tactics

It looks like Bill White is adjusting his tactics to a likely Perry primary victory:

Bill White said Tuesday that he agrees with Republican rival Kay Bailey Hutchison: Texas needs new leadership.

In Dallas to meet with local Democrats, White said he was especially troubled that Texas was either "treading water or going backward" in public and higher education under Gov. Rick Perry's leadership.

Posted by Evan @ 01/20/10 10:24 AM | Comments (0)

No sir.

Jason Embry:

U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison's campaign was quick to point out Tuesday night that a Rasmussen Reports poll just before the election showed Democrat Martha Coakley up 2 points on Republican Scott Brown in the Massachusetts race. Rasmussen, of course, just put out a poll that shows Hutchison trailing Gov. Rick Perry by 10 points among voters who say they'll take part in the Republican primary.

When I read things like this, I am always torn. Should I bother explaining why the two aren't analogous? Because I have a fairly good handle on my current readership, and you folks already know that the two situations are not really worth comparing.

There are plenty of reasons to think KBH can make up her current deficit. This isn't one of them.

Posted by Evan @ 01/20/10 09:17 AM | Comments (0)

Wake up, Wednesday

* Is Bill White ducking debates? Felix Alvarado thinks he is.

* I have some longish, more serious posts fermenting. Let's see if I get around to writing them out and posting them. I'm generally happy when I read this blog ("Not bad, Evan, for something you write on background while multitasking. But really, your longer posts...they sometimes make you seem only mildly literate?")

* AP:

Gov. Rick Perry is denouncing President Barack Obama's plan to let local school districts directly compete for federal education grant dollars that Texas has already rejected.

Obama singled out Texas in outlining his proposal on Tuesday. He said local school districts "stymied by state-decision makers" would have a chance to pursue the money on its own.

My natural tendencies are to agree with both Perry's decision not to take the funds (Hutchison agreed for those who google this in the future) and with Obama's decision to let school districts apply.

Local control is good. The Founding Fathers liked it.

* Shami donated $150kish to Hank Gilbert after he dropped out of the governor's race. At the time, there were lots of rumors of a backroom deal. At the very least, you have to wonder why Shami would donate to Gilbert with those rumors swirling.

The link above was brief. Try Aman Batheja for more.

* I agree with Jason Stanford:

So who does Medina help more? When I asked Democratic consultant Jason Stanford that question Monday night, he replied, "She pulls anti-Washington, right-wing votes from Perry and anti-Perry votes from Kay Bailey. But since she pulls Perry down from 50 percent plus one vote and forces a runoff, then she hurts him more."

I agree with Stanford: Medina hurts Perry in that she makes a runoff more likely. Now, Perry is more likely to win a run-off as his supporters are more dedicated, but any run-off always increases the variance. Politicians sometimes make mistakes, and incumbents are more likely to make them (and have them reported by the press).

I should probably mention that I also think I agree with Paul Burka's take, which is supposedly diametric. (Why is it diametric? Because that's what journalists do, but in this case Jason Embry thoroughly reported, and thus they aren't. Kudos to him.) Yet even if Medina draws more votes from KBH than from Perry, drawing votes in a 50% + 1 hurts Perry more.

* Even before seeing the date 9 days from now, I would love to bet anyone that Medina does not reach 12% on the only poll that counts on Election Day. It doesn't matter how well she does in the debate or how negative the campaigns go, she's not going to hit 12% at any reasonable odds.

* The Aggies are getting close to picking a new president. Given the history, how long until some folks accuse Perry of involvement?

Posted by Evan @ 01/20/10 03:05 AM | Comments (0)

Will we see more retirements or party switchers?

How nervous are some of the Texas House Democrats as they watch news of Scott Brown winning in Mass?*

I'd love to be a pharmacist in some of those districts. I bet they are reaching for the Rolaids as I type this. Will more retire? Will more switch parties? The few remaining Anglo Democrats are mostly not feeling good...as they realize that their future hinges on Congressional decisions out of their control.

* I think I can spell it, but I'm tired right now.

Posted by Evan @ 01/20/10 12:05 AM | Comments (0)

19 January 2010

Hutchison "Fence" featuring Nolan Ryan

Hutchison's new ad is an endorsement from Nolan Ryan.

Script is below the jump. Hat tip to the Texas Tribune.

She also released the endorsement of Sec. of State James Baker.

[Read More]

Posted by Evan @ 01/19/10 03:17 PM | Comments (0)

Rasmussen: Republicans lead White by double digits

A Rasmussen poll has Perry and Hutchison leading Democrat Bill White by double digits. Full question wording available here.

1000 Likely Voters, +/- 3%
conducted 1/17/2010

Perry 50
White 40
Other 4%
Not Sure 6%

Hutchison 52
White 37
Other 4%
Not Sure 8%

Medina 38
White 44
Other 5
Not Sure13

Healthcare reform
39% Favor
57% Oppose (50% Strongly Oppose)

Barack Obama Job Approval
44% Approve
54% Disapprove

Rick Perry Job Approval
53% Approve
46% Disapprove

Not sure why Rasmussen polled Medina. I'd rather have seen if Shami's ad have done anything.

Post in progress...

Posted by Evan @ 01/19/10 01:43 PM | Comments (0)

Bill White: I grew up a liberal

Bill White says he was raised a liberal? It got repeated twice in this Peggy Fikac story, so it sounds like he emphasized the point. Talking about those deep liberal roots doesn't seem like a winning strategy in Texas.

The progressive roots that he said prompted him to register voters while in high school show in his push to improve education. White cites the influence of family and of friends including former state Sen. Joe Bernal of San Antonio, who coached and was in a bowling league with his dad. White, as a legislative page, commuted to the Capitol with him. “I would be going back and forth with Joe every week from Austin when I was 13 years old and a page, and we would talk about the future of this state,” White said, adding that Bernal, like his parents, “believed that the future of our state was ... educating and bringing into leadership our growing Hispanic population.”

On energy, as White tells it, that progressive beginning was

Seems odd to go around talking to reporters about how liberal you are.

Posted by Evan @ 01/19/10 06:07 AM | Comments (1)

Slingin'

Jamie Stengle, AP:

U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison on Monday proposed new regulations for lobbyists, curbs on some political contributions and constitutional reforms to limit a governor's power of veto.

Hutchison, who is running for Texas governor, presented the ideas as part of a government reform package. Though Hutchison broke her own term-limits pledge several years ago, she said she would restrict the governorship to two four-year terms.

If KBH were to be successful, then Rick Perry would eternally be the longest-serving governor in Texas history.

I view KBH's campaign right now as throwing issues at a wall hoping one will stick.

Posted by Evan @ 01/19/10 05:56 AM | Comments (0)

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