Rick Perry vs World

23 July 2010

Rick Perry and Bill White file campaign finance reports

Twas deathly sick last week, but I am healthy again. Thanks for worrying.

Raised between 2/21 and 6/30 of 2010
Bill White $7.4M
Rick Perry $7.1M

Spent 2/21/2010- 6/30
Rick Perry 3.5M
Bill White 3.3M

Cash on Hand 6/30/2010
Rick Perry 5.9M
Bill White 9M

Meanwhile the Libertarian Party candidate Kathy Glass raised 7k, spent 8k and had about $7000 on hand.

Posted by Evan @ 07/23/10 06:11 AM | Comments (0)

12 July 2010

20 Questions with Marc Campos

I decided to send some questions to Democratic consultant Marc Campos because he generally tells it as it is. Less spin, more candor. Over the course of his career, he's had a hand in almost every elected Latino's campaign from one time to another all the while being one of the more frank commentators on Houston politics. His website is here, and he issues an always interesting daily commentary.

1. Rick Perry vs World: In my research for this interview, I found relatively little about your background and how you got into politics. I read something that implied that your father got you interested in politics growing in Houston's East End. Somewhere along the line after that in 1979, you got elected chair of the statewide Mexican American Democrats. Later it seems like you worked for Mark White, the SVREP and Ben Reyes, though probably not in that order. Then eventually you struck out on your own. Can you fill in the lines for me of your political biography?

MC: Here is a sampling of my political resume: I was Deputy Director in 1976 for the Texas Democratic Party GOTV effort. That was the last time Texas voted for a Democrat for President – Jimmy Carter. In 1977, I served as Research Director of the Texas Democratic Party. In 1978, I was part of the leadership team for the Bob Krueger for U.S. Senate Campaign. We lost to John Tower. I ran Ben Reyes' campaign for city council in 1979. From 1979-1981, I was chair of the Mexican American Democrats of Texas. In 1982, I handled Mark White’s Latino voter outreach effort. I spent the next four years as his Special Assistant. After we lost in 1986, I decided to consult. I've worked primarily on local races (mayor, city controller, congress, state house, state senate, city council, school board) although we did get hired in 2000 by the DNC to put together Truth Squad press events in battleground states during the presidential election.

2. What's your favorite campaign story from those years in politics?

I have a bunch like when Bob Krueger ripped into John Tower in Spanish and English at the 1978 State LULAC Convention in Laredo right before Tower spoke. I got Krueger to turn Tower's "con nosotros" slogan on him. Tower was really pissed off. In 1980, during the Kennedy vs Carter Texas presidential primary, a number of Latinos were supporting Kennedy against a sitting Democratic President. Kennedy came to a rally at a church in Denver Harbor, a Latino neighborhood in Houston. We were sitting behind him and he recognized us by calling me "Marv" Campos, State Representative "Hal" Luna (his name is Al Luna), City Councilman Ben "RayASS" (his name is Ben Reyes), and finally then State Reps. Gonzalo Barrientos and Paul Moreno were also seated with us and Kennedy said "and my good friend Representative Gonzalo Moreno" and Paul, who is confined to a wheel chair, leaned over and told Gonzalo "hey you stand up."

3. When you wrote your political bio, I remember reading during my research a few quotes from you saying mildly unflattering things about Mark McKinnon's involvement in the Krueger campaign. Does it surprise you that he flipped to working for W or did you see seeds of it back then?

I always have a problem with media consultants making a lot of money off of candidates and campaigns, and when their candidate loses, they blame the candidate. When you get beat 2 to 1, there is plenty of blame to go around. I think Mark was the guy that did Krueger's Terminator ad.

I didn't see the seeds. I always just thought Mark went for the big bucks.

4. In my view of American history, immigrant groups (with one important exception) have eventually become assimilated to the political center, whether they started out right or left. If so, in the long-term, the trend should eventually be that Latinos eventually trend more towards the center (that is, a greater percentage vote Republican) as they become second and third generations. Do you agree or disagree? Why?

Since I've been professionally involved in politics, there has always been a debate about the percentage of Latinos that vote Republican. The debate has always centered around the 20% to 45% range. I think a lot has to do with income levels. However, I always get back to this – of all the Latinos elected to office in Texas – from school board to congress, how many vote in the Democratic Party primary versus the Republican Party primary. I would suspect it would probably be 9 to 1 Democrat. I would say it is going to be this way for a while.

5. The term Hispanic has always confused me a little bit, since I don't think anyone identifies as Hispanic. Any thoughts on why the use of Hispanic persists in American politics instead of Latino?

Hey we used to be Latin Americans, then Mexican Americans, then some became Chicanos, then Hispanics, now Latino. I just don't think that the community has ever had a true debate on what we should be called. We've been worrying about more pressing issues. I'm hoping we can eventually agree on Latino.

6. You write quite frequently about immigration policy. If you could write US immigration laws, what would they be?

The DREAM ACT and pathway to citizenship for those that have been here without proper documentation.

7. What is the single most important foreign policy change (outside of immigration) that the US should make vis a vis Latin America?

We need to continue to change our policy on Cuba. US policy on Cuba has been held hostage by the politics of Florida. It is ridiculous.

8. You lobbied for Mexico in favor of NAFTA once upon a time. If I counted right, half of Texas Latino Congressman voted against CAFTA. Does that surprise you?

No not really. In 1991, the NAFTA negotiations were started by Bush and in 1992, NAFTA was supported by Clinton, so when Clinton was elected and the vote came in late 1993, it had a more bipartisan look. CAFTA was a George W. Bush initiative and when the vote came around in 2005, it was a more partisan atmosphere.

9. You've written some complimentary things about the Harris County GOP East End efforts? What would you do differently?

I don't think I've been complimentary. I just give them credit for at least being out there. Here is their problem. There really aren't that many Latino GOP elected officials, so the folks they send out to engage the Latino community are hired Latino guns. They need to send the County Judge and maybe some of their statewide elected officials like their U.S. Senators, Lieutenant Governor and Comptroller - folks that are truly involved in shaping public policy to engage these communities and listen to what they have to go through in life. There is a huge gap between GOP policies and the best interests of Latino communities. They have no idea what is going on in our schools or what is discussed at our dinner tables.

10. If Tony Garza woke up tomorrow and decided he wanted to win the Texas governor's mansion in 2014, do you think he could do it?

Nope. I don't think he could get the nomination from his party. I don't think he being a Bush appointee would be a plus among the tea party faction of the GOP. I don't think his ambassadorship to Mexico would be a plus either. He has pretty much been off of the state scene for the past decade. Grass roots GOPer don't know who he is.

11. Critique this ad (Bill White's spanish-language ad).

Bill White speaks Spanish. They are going to need a lot more than that to get the Latino vote enthused.

12. If you were running statewide as a Republican, who would you hire?

The guy that is running Rick Perry’s campaign. I’d also bring on Jessica Colon from Houston.

13. How long do you think it will be before Democrats control both branches of the Legislature?

I'd have to see how things look after redistricting. I will say that we will probably win the House back before we win the Senate.

14. As a Democrat, what's the one thing you hope Texas Republicans don't do with regards to Latino voters?

I hope they don't stay off of Spanish language TV and radio. If they get on Spanish language TV and radio, it will force Democrats to do the same and we could have a real good Spanish language air war and Latino voters might feel wanted and come out to vote.

15. It hasn't been very long, but so far Annise Parker seems to me to be the best mayor of Houston since I started paying attention. If you were to rank Houston's last 4 or 5 mayors, including Annise Parker, how would you put them?

I think she's done a real good job, but I don't think six months in office is enough time to get you to the all time best list. If I start ranking them, I'll get in trouble. I think Bob Lanier was bold. He gets the credit for marshalling the resources to save the city's affirmative action program when it was assaulted by the right. I think Lee Brown's administration was the most inclusive. White gets good marks for how he handled the hurricanes.

16. I've had a soft spot in my political heart for Harris County Judge Ed Emmett ever since I saw him at a candidate forum. In unfriendly territory, he didn't pander a single bit. You've written some complimentary things about Judge Emmett. Is he your favorite local Republican? If not, who is?

I guess I would say that he is my favorite Republican. He decided early on that he wasn't going to be rabid on the immigration issue and I appreciate that. I like what he said on this issue before the State GOP Platform Committee hearings.

17. It's amazing to me that Houston has never had an alcalde latino. Sanchez came close (although you helped run efforts against him). Obviously we probably have 6 years before the next real mayor election, but how long do you think it will be until we have a Latino mayor in Houston?

Keep an eye on Council Member James Rodriguez. I can see a scenario for a Latino getting elected in 2015. Some folks will say that it can't happen because Latinos don't come out to vote. They'll come out if they think they can make a difference.

18. In your series on the 2010 Latino Vote, you shared stats on national origin. My sense is that over the last decade Central Americans have slightly increased in the overall proportion of Houston Latinos. Over the next decade or two, do you think the national origin will change or remain relatively the same in Houston?

Probably relatively the same.

19. What percent of Houston Latino voters do you think get a majority of their political info from Spanish language media?

That is hard to say. It depends on what you mean by political info. Campaign and candidate info? Policy debate info? Houston Latino voters read newspapers, watch the newscasts, tune into Jorge Ramos, go on the internet, listen to talk radio, and discuss issues and politics with their family, friends, and co-workers. I will say that the local Univision station’s evening news ranks high in the ratings. I am going to out on a limb and say that most of their viewers speak Spanish. There are a number of political info sources so I would not say we get the majority from the Spanish language media, rather a substantial.

20. I've always been surprised that there hasn't been more of an effort to challenge Gene Green in a primary. Would you support adding precincts during the next round of redistricting that would make it easier for that district to elect a Latino?

I'm going to stay away from commenting on what I would like to see in redistricting at the congressional or state legislative levels. It is not my intention to get involved there. My redistricting involvement will be with Houston City Council and HISD trustee districts.

Posted by Evan @ 07/12/10 07:10 PM | Comments (1)

Ciro Rodriguez loses his temper on camera

This video is making the rounds this morning.

The race in CD23 just got a little more interesting.

Posted by Evan @ 07/12/10 01:18 PM | Comments (0)

09 July 2010

The coolest video I've seen in awhile

Here's a video of a time lapse run of the Houston ship channel at night:

If you want to see that run during the day, head on over to the GCaptain blog.

Posted by Evan @ 07/09/10 06:57 PM | Comments (0)

05 July 2010

I saw this editorial from the FWST and was stunned by the bolded sentence:

But redistricting has become primarily a power grab. Members of whichever political party is dominant manipulate the maps to protect their incumbents, increase the chances of electing more of their candidates and squeeze out opposing party officeholders.

Knowledgeable people should not produce such sentences. The term gerrymander is over 200 years old.

Posted by Evan @ 07/05/10 09:43 PM | Comments (2)

02 July 2010

Straus criticized by those who have no options.

Jason Embry in today's Statesman:

Texas House Speaker Joe Straus is under fire from the left and right.

Some staunch conservatives have looked skeptically at Straus ever since he became speaker last year with the support of Democrats and moderate Republicans. Now some of the Democrats who were part of his initial coalition say he's neglecting them as he tries to win over his critics on the right.

"He's bending over backwards for people who are never, ever going to support him," said Rep. Jessica Farrar, D-Houston . "Those of us who would like to work with him in running the state, he's taking for granted."

Of course he's taking you for granted, where else are you going to go?

Farrar and Rep. Garnet Coleman, D-Houston, swiftly criticized the Taylor appointment because it left one Democrat and four Republicans on the panel.

"The speaker has had four chances to appoint members to the Sunset commission and only one of those appointments has been a Democrat," Coleman said. "Anyone who doesn't believe he is a dyed-in-the-wool conservative Republican isn't paying attention to the appointments."

Coleman's charges probably help the Speaker, by notifying Republicans that maybe he's not so buddy buddy with the Democrats who picked him.

But the Democrats now criticizing Straus supported him when he was first elected, and he may need them again. One Republican, Rep. Leo Berman of Tyler, has already launched a campaign against Straus and is likely to attract some Republican votes. Knowing that he will again seek their votes, Straus' critics may be looking for leverage.

This illustrates why Straus' critics like Farrar have absolutely zero leverage. A few are unhappy, but from Straus' perspective, so what? What are they going to do, go vote for Leo Berman? Obviously not. Vote for a Democrat? Only if they win a majority in November, which is highly unlikely, and even then Straus is gone anyway. So Straus has short-term danger from both sides, that Democrats negotiate with a Republican to make him Speaker and that Republicans decide they don't like Straus, get enough people together and then grab a Dem vote or two. Fortunately for Straus, he only has to dodge this for a few cycles, establish himself in the mainstream of the Republican caucus, and turnover will do the work of allowing him an independent power base.

Posted by Evan @ 07/02/10 06:07 PM | Comments (0)

29 June 2010

538, Kos and Research 2000

Wow. 538's Nate Silver -- who has let emotions color his analysis a few times recently, but that's another story -- has apparently sparked DailyKos to cancel its contract with Del Ali's polling company Research 2000 and sue them for fraud. In response, Research 2000 retained Howrey and sent Silver a cease and desist letter threatening to sue.

If Del Ali and Research 2000 are legit, then they're not doing a good job of showing it. Why use the legal system to bully people when you could just present the facts? By threatening Silver, they have already lost standing with me.

UPDATE: I've now read the reports. Frankly, there is little doubt that Research2000 is -- at the least -- not engaging in best practices for polling. There's really no doubt about that, in my opinion. By itself, that will cause a big loss in reputation for Research 2000.* Fraudulent? That's a much higher mountain to climb. But right now, Ali is doing the opposite of what he should be doing if he is innocent.

* Folks like me have been fans of the robo-polls for 6 years or so, whereas the DC campaign pundit class has been shockingly slow to accept them.

Posted by Evan @ 06/29/10 05:33 PM | Comments (0)

Communist Party USA loves Linda Chavez-Thompson

Am I the only one amused that the Communist Party USA hearts Linda Chavez-Thompson? Click through to read a breathless account of her speech to the convention by an organ of the Communist Party, USA.

Perhaps de facto Texas Democratic Party chairman Matt Angle knows what he's doing in convincing Chavez-Thompson to run. But then again, perhaps not.

Posted by Evan @ 06/29/10 05:25 AM | Comments (0)

21 June 2010

Kay Bailey Hutchison running for re-election?

Roll Call adds some fresh fuel to the Kay Bailey Hutchison is running for re-election rumor:

Hutchison's office declined Roll Call’s request for an extended interview to discuss her future in the wake of her March 2 defeat by incumbent Rick Perry in the Texas Republican gubernatorial primary. And in a brief impromptu interview Thursday, the Senator flatly declined to comment on her gubernatorial race or whether she will seek re-election in 2012, when her Senate term expires.

But Hutchison was willing to talk about her legislative and political agenda now that she is refocused on her job as Texas’ senior Senator, and she was similarly predisposed to discuss her move back into leadership as an appointed adviser to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) — a new slot created specifically for her.

...

McConnell said he hopes Hutchison seeks a fifth term in 2012.

Click through the link and you'll get a Beckwith quote implicitly acknowledging that KBH is considering running for re-election.

Posted by Evan @ 06/21/10 06:47 PM | Comments (0)

Strange things the dailies say

DMN columnist William McKenzie writes something strange:

Bill White is getting a boost as he heads into his party's convention this week. The latest Rasmussen poll shows him trailing Rick Perry by eight points in their governor's race. That may not sound like good news, but the last Rasmussen poll had him trailing Perry by 13 points. And that was last month. So, he has knocked off five points in a short-period of time.

The April 14th Rasmussen poll showed Bill White within 4!

To quote myself directly below:

I calculated the average horserace number based on all 7 Rasmussen polls in 2010. Basically it indicates that the current Perry vs White horserace numbers are about the same as they have been all year.

While in the strictest sense, McKenzie's words are true, it's a pretty bad analysis of the race, to which I'd give about a C- in an undergraduate class. Bill White has momentum because a poll reverted to its mean?

McKenzie also notes Joe Holley's article headlined "Some GOP stalwarts plan to vote for Bill White":

The Houston Chronicle also reported recently how White is gaining the backing of some high-profile Republicans, like Amarillo's Wales Madden. You can read the article here.

Holley's article was...strange. Holley focuses on Wales Madden, Matt Simmons and Billy Mitchell. Wales Madden is a decades-long friend of Bill White, who Bill White helped as a government official (others might see this as the story). Matt Simmons was White's campaign treasurer in his mayoral run. And Billy Mitchell is a rancher who doesn't like the TTC.

Political analysis articles based solely on anecdotes are fraught with danger from the start. Generally they should be used to explain poll results. But of course, we don't have any evidence of that. So far, polls indicate that White trails Perry by a high single digit number....which is about the structural deficit that a Democrat faces against a Republican.

The casual Houston Chronicle might be left with the sense that White is gaining on Perry, but so far we have little evidence that supports this. A few of White's personal friends are planning on voting for him; that's not exactly surprising.

Posted by Evan @ 06/21/10 05:49 PM | Comments (0)

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