Rick Perry vs World

18 June 2010

Rasmussen: Perry 48, White 40

Rasmussen has released his most recent poll. Numbers in parentheses are from May 13 and April 14 poll, respectively.

6/16/2010
500 likely voters, +/- 4.5% sample error
Perry 48 (51/48)
White 40 (38/44)
Other 5% (4/2)
Not Sure 8% (6/6)

2010 Perry vs White Ramussen Average
Perry 48.7
White 40.7

I calculated the average horserace number based on all 7 Rasmussen polls in 2010. Basically it indicates that the current Perry vs White horserace numbers are about the same as they have been all year.

Obama Approval/Disapproval at
40%/60%
28%/51% strongly

Posted by Evan @ 06/18/10 06:10 PM | Comments (0)

10 June 2010

Bill White and BTEC: an exhaustive account

The AP story that started it all:

Former Houston Mayor Bill White, who was widely praised for guiding his city through Hurricane Rita, acknowledged to The Associated Press on Tuesday that he made money by investing in a company that was hired to help the region recover from the storm.

Rick Perry's campaign sent out a statement under the governor's name calling for Bill White to drop out of the race for "profiteering".

"By his own admission, Bill White intervened regarding a contract given to BTEC, a company he had personal financial ties with, to provide generators for the Houston Coastal Water Authority following Hurricane Rita's landfall in 2005. If this is true, and Bill White did unethically steer taxpayer dollars to a company he had a personal financial stake in, I am calling on him to immediately resign from the race for governor.

Sending out a statement under the governor's own name is a signal to the press corps that they think this story has major legs. Usually the campaign spokesman issues the statement, thus allowing the candidate or officeholder to stay above the fray. Especially in the case of an officeholder, who can act statesman-like instead of "pissing it away by getting down in the mud," to borrow the words of Lyndon Johnson. Perhaps my memory is faulty, but I cannot recall a press release attack sent out under Perry's name until now.

Today Bill White called a press conference to defend himself and Rick Perry:

Here's a timeline:

* Before he was mayor, Bill White served on the board of BTEC in his capacity as an executive for the Wedge Group.
* He served on the board because The Wedge Group owned BTEC.
* When Bill White stepped down from Wedge to become mayor, he negotiated that they would continue to pay him deferred compensation.
* During Hurricane Rita in September 2005, Bill White suggested to the Coastal Water Authority that they consider using BTEC.
* At this time Bill White had no direct compensation from BTEC, only his scheduled payments from Wedge.
* Bill White appoints a majority of the Coastal Water Authority's board.
* The Coastal Water Authority gave BTEC a $1.8 million emergency contract.

* A year later, Bill White invested $1,000,000 in BTEC.
* In 2007, BTEC produced $524,000 in income, an immediate 1 year return of 50%.

Can you imagine if Rick Perry had done any of this? I can't imagine reading a headline from the Dallas Morning News op-ed board that reads "Perry's investment deserves scrutiny but isn't crucial" as they have opined in this case.

Let's start with the worst: it is possible that this is outright Jersey-style corruption. Bill White, with a wink and a nod, told his majority on the Coastal Water Authority that they should consider BTEC. It is possible he did so because the Wedge Group had told him that they would provide him an opportunity to personally invest at favorable terms later that would virtually guarantee him a profit. We can't prove that this is true, we can't prove that it isn't. One thing we can say for sure: it definitely does not avoid the apperance of a conflict of interest.

I tend to want to believe the best in public servants. Most people run for office because they want to improve society. I would tend to want to give the benefit of the doubt to Bill White here, but reaping a 50% return in one year certainly looks like a sweetheart deal. That looks and smells bad. White should've known better.

Things that even Democratic partisans probably can't argue with:

* Bill White recommended that the CWA (a board where 4 of 7 members are appointed by Bill White) invest in BTEC, a company owned by his former employers, from whom he was currently receiving millions in compensation.

* Bill White showed shockingly bad judgment in investing in BTEC after the fact. It's not exactly an arms-length transaction to buy part of a company from a former employer after you have helped steer public money to that company, in any way. The fact that the investment provided a 50% return in one year indicates that Wedge Group probably gave him a sweetheart deal.

For me the best-case scenario for Bill White is what Kevin Whited said at BlogHouston:

It also means that even while serving as an elected public official, Mayor Bill White was actively building his personal wealth in part from knowledge gained as a public official and in part by taking advantage of an apparently fantastic investment opportunity that most members of the public could not.

One of the things Bill White's supporters always say is that he's so brilliant. If he were so brilliant, perhaps he should have showed better judgment.

Posted by Evan @ 06/10/10 11:37 PM | Comments (1)

Bill White pays only 15% taxes

I'll have more to say on Bill White's tax returns, but what struck me more than anything else (and made my blood pressure rise!):

All told, White reported adjusted gross income of $11.8 million from 2004 to 2009, paying $1.7 million in taxes for the period.

White paid under 15% in taxes. Under 15%

My guess is that your average working American pays around 35% a year in taxes. Bill White is a multimillionaire, yet he pays only 15% taxes?

Bill White obviously has some good accountants. But next time he talks about how we Texans might need to pay higher taxes, how about he pays his fair share?

Posted by Evan @ 06/10/10 10:37 PM | Comments (0)

Gonzalez: Confirm Saldaña

Former Texas Supreme Court Justice Raul Gonzalez penned a column for the Statesman in support of Sarah Saldaña's nomination for US attorney and the efforts of Cornyn and Hutchison:

As a former Democratic justice of the Texas Supreme Court and assistant United States attorney, I was disappointed to read a June 7 column ("Cornyn uses politics as law enforcement roadblock in Texas") unfairly blaming U.S. Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, for the slow pace of filling vacancies for the state's four top federal prosecutors.

Saldaña manages the fraud and public corruption section in the Northern District. She has performed in that role admirably, prosecuting corrupt officials without fear or favor.

Regrettably, Saldaña's promotion to that post is being blocked without explanation or justification. There is a widespread view that Saldaña is being blackballed by congressional Democrats for her role as lead prosecutor in the recent trial of former Dallas Mayor Pro Tem Don Hill and other prominent Democratic officials. If there is anything to the charge, then a terrible message is being sent to career federal prosecutors across the nation.

I see no political motivation behind Cornyn and Hutchison fighting for Saldaña, a lifelong Democrat. They are taking a stand for professionalism and the rule of law, and ensuring that the most qualified person gets the job.

Strangely, I don't see many irate editorials coming out of the major Texas dailies!

Posted by Evan @ 06/10/10 10:16 PM | Comments (0)

09 June 2010

He's only been rejected by Republicans, Democrats and Independents...

...better keep trying.

Awhile back, I think I facetiously predicted that Kinky Friedman would next run for office as a libertarian. He's speaking to the Texas Libertarian Party convention this weekend.

Posted by Evan @ 06/09/10 10:39 PM | Comments (0)

20 May 2010

Bill White's new ad

This ad is a pretty big clunker. It starts off slow, doesn't build much for the next 50 seconds [who 'pursues educational dreams?' That phrase sounds clumsy] until White machine-guns awkwardly his resume points to close the ad.

Lots of poor decisions in this spot. 1 minute long, images flashing too fast at the end, the educational dreams, the old photographs, strange transitions, and the wasted space. I get that they are trying to innoculate White from Perry's attacks on specific issues by blanketing Bill White with Texas and Sunday School, but...wow, that ad was bad.

To be honest, in my first viewing I assumed this was a web-only ad until White started the rapid fire diction to get in under 60 seconds. Supposedly this is really airing on TV across the state. I predict a pretty short run time for this one, since they're paying for a one minute spot that doesn't work.

Posted by Evan @ 05/20/10 02:52 PM | Comments (0)

18 May 2010

Austin Dem polling firm: Perry 46, White 37

After Rasmussen showed Perry leading by 13 (and over the 50% mark), a Democratic firm shows Perry leading by 9.

Opinion Analysts recently completed a survey of 602 likely 2010 General election voters Statewide. The poll was conducted May 7-13. In our initial trial heat – a test with no potentially biasing information preceding – Perry holds a 46% to 37% lead over Bill White, with 3% going to the Libertarian candidate and 14% Undecided.

They go on to argue that Perry's job rating is upside down, although the way they asked the question (they didn't release the whole poll) is the sort of question that will get more people to agree to an ambiguous word (45% "only fair") that the firm can call negative.

In short, if a Dem polling firm has Perry at +9 where they didn't release the whole poll, that goes a fairly long way towards putting the Rasmussen poll in the margin of error.

Posted by Evan @ 05/18/10 02:37 PM | Comments (0)

17 May 2010

Rasmussen: Perry 51, White 38

May 13, 2010 Rasmussen poll
500 Likely Voters, +/- 4.5%

(numbers in parentheses) are from April 14 Rasmussen poll

Rick Perry 51 (48)
Bill White 38 (44)
Other 4
Not Sure 6

Looks like the Bill White attacks are working, and perhaps we see why Bill White went on the air...in Houston, the only part of the state where he has name identification.

Barack Obama's job approval rating is 42/57, with 50% strongly disapproving. (Do you think Burnt Orange Report still thinks that being in line with Obama puts you in the middle of the road?

Favaroable/Unfavorable
Rick Perry 55/43
Bill White 47/41

63% favor repeal of ObamaCare, 53% strongly.

Posted by Evan @ 05/17/10 02:27 PM | Comments (0)

12 May 2010

Dewhurst: I don't want to be a Senator

That's what I thought when I read today that Dewhurst said that he would have accepted the unemployment stimulus funds that would have come with strings attached.

It's pretty much de rigueur to be against that if you want to win a primary.

Posted by Evan @ 05/12/10 05:31 PM | Comments (0)

11 May 2010

Arlen Specter to run for Senate in New York?

Stunning news from the NYTimes:

Buffeted by new polls showing him behind challenger Joe Sestak in the Democratic primary, Arlen Specter announced today that he will move to New York to run against fellow Senator Kristen Gillibrand.

"I am unwilling to have my 29-year Senate record judged by the Pennsylvania Democratic primary electorate," said Specter. "I have not represented the Pennsylvania Democratic Party. I have represented the values of the people of New York." As he said those words, Specter placed a New York Yankees cap on his head.

Pressed as to whether he will run as a Republican or a Democrat, Specter responded, "It depends on which primary I can win. We are currently taking a poll, and we'll make a decision soon."

Specter, after 29 years in the Senate as a Republican, switched to the Democratic party last April. Once leading the Democratic primary by twenty points, he is now behind by 5 as Joe Sestak blankets the airwaves with 2004 footage of Specter beaming while then-President Bush exclaims, "I can trust this man!"

Analysts says the move is unusual for a sitting Senator, but may be shrewd. "Specter hasn't convinced Pennsylvania Democrats that he is one of them, so why not give it a shot in New York? He can run against Gillibrand in a classic New York City vs upstate race while making an issue of her ties to scandal-ridden Democratic Governor David Paterson," said veteran Pennsylvania political observer Terry Madonna.

...

Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball current status for the New York and Pennsylvania Senate races is "cloudy."

Shocking news.

Posted by Evan @ 05/11/10 03:38 PM | Comments (0)

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