Rick Perry vs World

15 December 2005

Shorts

Carlos Guerra with a column touching on John Sharp's Tax Reform Commission.

Gardner Selby writes on the ever-present Craddick and Dewhurst relationship. I wrote about this a few weeks ago, not that I'm saying that you get it here first or anything.

Chris Bell called for more sex ed in schools, more healthcare for lower-income women, and for ending abstinenceonly sex ed.

Posted by Evan @ 12/15/05 05:50 AM | Comments (2)

McNeely's latest column

Ex-Statesman political writer Dave McNeely has his latest column up, which isn't too keen on Strayhorn's chances.

"When we spend that first million on TV, that's when you'll see the numbers move,'' Strayhorn predicted.

...

Her campaign office says Strayhorn, who is 65, will follow through on her goal to win the GOP nomination for governor. If she does change her mind and seek another term as comptroller, she would by no means be the first ambitious pol to choose re-election over another race at the last minute. For instance, then-Agriculture Commissioner Jim Hightower backed out of a U.S. Senate race in 1990, only to get beat for re-election by Perry.

Working against the re-election idea is that current Agriculture Commissioner Susan Combs is running for comptroller, and state Sen. Todd Staples, R-Palestine, is running for Combs' current job. Tough Grandma Strayhorn actually might lose if she and Combs go head to head.

To spectators, this is what makes Texas politics attractive. It is seldom pretty, but almost always interesting.

Gotta love the closing line from McNeely.

Strayhorn has a point about spending her first million on TV. Let's assume that she'll have $7 million to spend on the primary. In that case, if she starts on January 1st, she can spend almost $2 million per month on TV ads.

She may be behind in the polls, but it's not impossible for her to make that ground up, and that's why Perry has been on the offensive as of late.

Posted by Evan @ 12/15/05 05:44 AM | Comments (0)

14 December 2005

If you were Carole Strayhorn, would you go indie?

I would give you my answer to this question, except that I have an exam tomorrow.

So, maybe you'll get my answer on Friday. In the meantime, have a go at it in the comments.

UPDATE: Charles Kuffner answers my question.

Posted by Evan @ 12/14/05 10:17 AM | Comments (1)

DMN on the latest video

Karen Brooks in the DMN writes on the Perry campaign's video trying to tie Strayhorn to Ben Barnes:

Nearly 10,000 supporters of Gov. Rick Perry received a video e-mail on Tuesday telling them his GOP primary opponent, Comptroller Carole Keeton Strayhorn, is in cahoots with a lying, Bush-hating liberal.

The Democrat in question, former Lt. Gov. Ben Barnes, is on the host committee for a Strayhorn fundraiser scheduled for today in Austin.

"We're going to make sure that Republicans in this state don't forget Carole Strayhorn's close ties to Ben Barnes, a major political enemy of President Bush," campaign spokesman Robert Black said.

...

The Perry campaign called it "a teaser" but did not offer further details on any TV campaign.

Mrs. Strayhorn has defended her alliance with Mr. Barnes, calling him a lifelong friend. Her campaign aides said the video e-mail was a sign of desperation.

"Since he's sending it to his people, he must be worried that his support is slipping," spokesman Mark Sanders said.

Nearly 10,000 supporters...and a bunch of journalists too.

Posted by Evan @ 12/14/05 07:34 AM | Comments (0)

I think that story is dead unless it gets resuscitated

Jay Root in the FWST got the same response from the Carole Strayhorn campaign that I did.

First Kinky. Now Carole?

Her aides says it's all rumor, but Comptroller Carole Keeton Strayhorn has also refused to rule out the possibility that she, like humorist/entertainer Kinky Friedman, will run for governor as an independent.

Spokesman Mark Sanders was asked Tuesday to deny categorically that Strayhorn will become an independent candidate for governor and not, as she has announced, try to defeat Gov. Rick Perry in the March Republican primary. He wouldn't go that far. "She is a Republican candidate in 2006," Sanders said. "That's what my boss has said in the newspaper and I'm saying that."

In an interview with The Associated Press, Strayhorn said the same thing, even when pressed. She and her aides blame her opponent for the speculation.

This story should be officially dead now. Until somebody goes on the record saying that they heard it from Strayhorn, or until Strayhorn says it herself, it's just rumors.

Posted by Evan @ 12/14/05 07:30 AM | Comments (2)

Perry campaign playing offense

KVUE (ABC Austin):

There were new questions Tuesday in the race for governor. Is Comptroller Carole Keeton Strayhorn using taxpayer dollars in her run against incumbent Governor Rick Perry?

Campaign watchdog groups are concerned about a series of newsletters, mailed from the comptroller's state office, at taxpayer expense, that include letters from Strayhorn that are critical of Governor Perry.

Strayhorn launched her gubernatorial campaign in June. Since then, the outspoken critic of Governor Perry has gone virtually silent.

But now some newsletters sent by her state office are raising some eyebrows: the "Texas Innovator" and "Fiscal Notes" are mailed free to subscribers every two months. Since September, each has contained a commentary from Strayhorn that's critical of Governor Perry.

In one, she urges him to use a special session to send $200 million from the Texas Enterprise Fund to help victims of Hurricane Katrina. In another, she criticizes Perry for not calling a special session, then proposes sending a billion dollars in tax relief to property owners.

Tom Smith runs "Public Citizen," a political watchdog group.

"I think it strays over the line and into a campaign piece," he said. "If you're an elected official you have to be very careful not to use state funds and the state office to promote your candidacy, and that's what it looks like is going on here.

Question: do you think the Perry campaign talked to KVUE about this? If not, do you think they fed the information to Tom Smith's Public Citizen who went to KVUE?

In case it's not clear, my guess is that the answer to one of those two questions is yes.

Combine this with the Ben Barnes web commercial, and it's clear that the Perry campaign is staying on the offensive. Comptroller Strayhorn doesn't have a firm public perception in Texas. With the campaign getting under way, Perry is trying to define Strayhorn before she can define herself. While Perry leads now in the polls, a decent amount of his support is soft. One way to firm up your support is to by making yourself look attractive in comparison to the other guy...or in this case, girl.

OK, back to studying.

Posted by Evan @ 12/14/05 01:59 AM | Comments (1)

13 December 2005

The AP on rumors

The AP hears the same rumors that I was hearing:

Comptroller Carole Keeton Strayhorn said Tuesday she remains a Republican candidate for governor, despite speculation among supporters of rival Gov. Rick Perry that she's exploring an independent run.

"I am a Republican candidate for governor in 2006," Strayhorn said in a telephone interview with The Associated Press.

But asked whether she was considering running for Texas governor as an independent or in another party, Strayhorn wouldn't confirm or deny it. She would say only: "I am a Republican candidate for governor in 2006."

For several days, some Republicans connected to Perry have said they know of Republican voters who recently received telephone polling calls asking about a scenario in which Strayhorn might run as an independent. They've also said they've heard indirectly about discussions among Strayhorn supporters about her running as an independent.

"You know, this is a rumor a day," Strayhorn told the AP. She said she's also heard the "rumor" that she will decide to run again for comptroller, a job she has held for two terms.

Were these rumors grounded in fact or did the Perry campaign manufacture them?

Posted by Evan @ 12/13/05 10:55 PM | Comments (0)

The Perry campaign likes multimedia

Remember how the Perry campaign taped Hillary Clinton and Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison looking chummy in DC and then sent it around to Republican activists around the state?

Now they're sending out a video link from 60 Minutes (the Rathergate episode, if I recall correctly) that starts with Dan Rather asking Barnes what happened.

I'm procrastinating on studying for finals, so I'll describe the fifty second spot:

The screen freezes after the camera switches to Barnes from Rather, then fades to black and white, and ticks out like on a typewriter "In 2004, Liberal Democrat Ben Barnes appeared on 60 Minutes with Dan Rather with the intent to destroy President George W. Bush and help his fellow Liberal John Kerry win the Presidency." Then it shows side by side black and white spots of Rather and Barnes and types "Even his own daughter said he was lying. and Dan Rather's report was later discredited."

Then it switches to black and white side-by-side shots of Comptroller Strayhorn and Barnes and types out "Watch your television to learn what Democrat Ben Barnes and Carole Strayhorn have in common . . . coming in 2006." Then it ends with a grainy shot of Comptroller Strayhorn. Slow, dirge music is played in the background. Cello-sounding deep strings.

The last shot of Strayhorn is a little creepy to me when juxtaposed with the music, and not in a negative-to-Strayhorn kind of way.

They Perry campaign sure does love its multimedia.

Posted by Evan @ 12/13/05 05:19 PM | Comments (0)

Rumors and gossip

I've heard unconfirmed rumors that Strayhorn has decided to make a bid as an independent.

I'll try to confirm whether this gossip is true.

UPDATE: I called Strayhorn's office and asked for Mark Sanders. He wasn't in, and he doesn't have voicemail there. I asked for anyone who would comment on rumors that the Comptroller had decided to run as an independent, and was told that no one was in. So I left my name and phone number. We'll see if I hear anything.

UPDATE 2: In response to my queries, Strayhorn campaign manager Brad McClellan responded that "Carole Keeton Strayhorn is a Republican candidate for Governor."

Posted by Evan @ 12/13/05 02:43 PM | Comments (0)

Texas redistricting thoughts

The Hotline (subscription required) on the SCOTUS review Texas redistricting:

At first glance, the SCOTUS decision to review the TX redistricting gives Dems a big chance to gain back some of the five seats they lost in '04. It also creates a messy winter of political and legal wrangling. The state's '06 primary is currently scheduled for 3/7, the country's earliest, at least three months before a ruling will likely take place. Will there be a delay in the primary until a decision is made, similar to NC's postponed -- and low turnout -- primaries last summer? Also, how will a decision to overturn the boundaries change the political landscape? Would the districts revert to the pre-'04 boundaries, or would an independent panel of judges redraw the lines?

But the review doesn't just bode poorly for the GOP. Dems could be affected if the ruling makes it more difficult for state legislators to implement partisan redistricting in their favor. Minority groups are also often at odds with Dems, who want to spread out minorities in many districts, diluting their influence but helping the party. So Dems shouldn't cheer too loudly yet: What's good for them right now isn't guaranteed to be in their long-term interest.

I highly doubt that this year's primary won't happen. I guess it's possible, but highly unlikely.

Moreover, I agree with Kuff -- the power of incumbency has been overturned. The newly elected Republican Congressman will keep their seats no matter what happens.

Also, just one more note: if the Supreme Court overturned the maps, it might (depending on the SCOTUS ruling) actually be a bad thing for Democrats. Precedent was set years ago that when the redistricting is court ordered, the Texas Senate (through the Lt Gov's leadership) requires only a majority, not a supermajority to break a filibuster. Given the GOP majorities in the statehouse, Republicans will be able to further tinker with the lines. Granted, they'd have to comply with the court's order, but doing so would probably not require giving up any mapdrawing advantages. So, while there isn't much more Republicans can do to benefit the GOP...do Democrats really want that to happen?

On the other hand, a March 1st hearing is right before the primary in Texas. That'll be a round of bad press for DeLay right around primary time.

Posted by Evan @ 12/13/05 02:08 PM | Comments (0)

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