Rick Perry vs World

08 January 2006

The prognostication never ceases

RG Ratcliffe writes up The Strayhorn Effect:

Mike Baselice: Pollster for Perry
Baselice said he thinks Strayhorn's decision to run as an independent increases Perry's chances of re-election.

"I don't know how this works. It's a Republican-leaning state," Baselice said. "There's only so many disenchanted party loyalists who are willing to take a stab at an independent candidacy."

Baselice said Texas has a base Republican vote of 50 percent and a base Democratic vote of 35 percent. He said if each party loses 5 percent of its vote and it is added to the independent, the swing vote just reaches 25 percent.

" If you gave it all to Strayhorn and none to Kinky, she's still woefully short," Baselice said.

He predicted Friedman's campaign will be meaningless by Election Day because he will not have the money to mount a statewide television-advertising campaign.

"It cost $1.6 million to run a week of TV properly in Texas," Baselice said.

Tom Pauken: Former Texas GOP chairman
Pauken said there is enough dissatisfaction with Republican voters about Perry's administration and inability to pass a public school finance plan than either Strayhorn or the Democratic nominee can defeat Perry in a multicandidate race.

"It's not a given that Perry will be re-elected," Pauken said. "He's alienated a lot of Republicans."

Pauken said gathering the signatures to get on the ballot may be a problem for Strayhorn.

"She doesn't have a strong organization, and Friedman has been preparing for the past year for what you have to do to run as an independent," Pauken said.

"Assuming she gets on the ballot, she can be a tough candidate in the fall. She hurts Perry, and she hurts him quite badly."

Pauken said Strayhorn's candidacy will be a big boost for the Democratic nominee because it increases the impact of the Democratic base vote in a divided turnout.

But he said Strayhorn has a shot at winning because voters have become disenchanted with both Republicans and Democrats.

"They're angrier at the Republicans at the moment than the Democrats, but there's a little bit of pox on both your houses," Pauken said.

He said Strayhorn's independent candidacy will take the wind out of Friedman's sails.

" I see him more as a protest vote or a joke. Now, with Strayhorn in the race, his hopes will fade dramatically," Pauken said.

Brad McClellan: Stayhorn's son and campaign manager
McClellan said Strayhorn knows it will be tough to win as an independent.

"It has been 147 years since this has been done, and Sam Houston probably needed fewer votes to win than we need signatures (to get on the ballot)," McClellan said.

Houston won his 1859 race with 33,375 votes, according to Richard Rice, historical interpreter at the Sam Houston Memorial Museum in Huntsville. That's 12,075 fewer voter signatures than Strayhorn and Friedman each need to get on the ballot.

McClellan said no one should discount the fact Strayhorn will be the only woman in a field of male candidates running for governor.

"It's just another perspective. It's that tough grandma. There are more females that vote in the general election than, say, in the Republican primary," he said.

McClellan said his mother will take a large portion of the Democratic and independent vote as well as the Republican base because voters are "fed up" with both parties, particularly on issues such as educating children.

"We're the one that's going to win this race because we cut into that conservative base. And there's a big base out there. There are people out there who say they're tired of the labels, and they want to see stuff get done," he said.

Jason Stanford: Bell's chief consultant
Stanford said the complexity of building a voting bloc from Republicans, Democrats and independents will make it difficult for Strayhorn to win.

"There are too many cross- purposes. Before, it was simple: She needed to create a general election in a primary," Stanford said. "Chris Bell's challenge is to get Democrats to vote for the Democratic nominee."

Stanford said Democratic nominee Tony Sanchez got 40 percent of the vote against Perry in 2002. He said that vote will be enough for the Democratic nominee to win in a multicandidate race against Perry.

"Everyone in this race is making a persuasive case to fire Rick Perry," he said.

Stanford said the cost of a Democratic campaign will be less because it can target Democratic voters. He said the multicandidate race also will make it difficult for Perry to attack any one opponent with negative television commercials.

"If he puts up $5 million on TV against Chris Bell, none of those votes are going to go to him. They're going to go to Carole Strayhorn or Kinky Friedman. His return on that dollar is marginal at best," Stanford said.

The other candidates can go after Perry, though.

"This isn't a circular firing squad. We're all pointed at Rick Perry, and he's got to spend the entire time on defense."

Dean Rindy: Gammage adviser
Rindy said he thinks the Democratic nominee will benefit from Perry and Strayhorn viciously attacking each other in the first half of the year as Perry tries to "crush" Strayhorn's ability to build momentum.

"While the two dinosaurs thrash about in the jungle, we can remain relatively unscathed for the midpart of the campaign year," Rindy said in a memo to Gammage supporters. "We will hammer home our message to hold our base, while looking far cleaner than our two Republican rivals."

Rindy said Strayhorn's independent campaign will finish off Friedman.

"She simply sucks the air out of Kinky's message, hogs the media spotlight, steps on his story line and makes it very difficult for him to attract significant numbers of Perot-type conservatives," he said.

Rindy said the Texas governor's race is developing into a contest like the 1992 presidential contest when Bush barely carried Texas despite Perot's insurgent campaign.

"Bush Sr. barely scraped by in that election, and Rick Perry is not George Bush," Rindy said. "Her image as an independent is much weaker than Perot's, and it will be extremely easy to discredit her with Democratic voters."

Dean Barkley: Friedman's campaign manager
Barkley ran Ventura's surprise independent victory in Minnesota. He said Friedman can replicate it in Texas.

"It's real simple. What an independent candidate has to do to win is they have to motivate the traditional nonvoting public, or disgruntled voters who have stopped voting, to return to the polls to vote," Barkley said.

"If Carole could pull off the illusion that she is really an independent, it could make it more difficult for us. The jury is out on whether Carole has the qualities to motivate nonvoting people to vote. I know Kinky can."

Barkley said he thinks that in a three-way race the winner will need 40 percent of the vote. In a four-way race, he said the victor could take it with as little as 30 percent.

"There's a lot of dissatisfaction with Perry among conservatives," Barkley said. "Now that will be a battle between Carole and Kinky as to which one they are going to go for."

He said Friedman also will be able to appeal to Democrats on environmental issues and social libertarian stands such as supporting gay marriage.

Barkley said Texas voters also will see a difference in the contest in March and April during the 60 days when Strayhorn and Friedman are gathering signatures to get on the ballot. Both will need to collect about twice as many signatures as they need to guarantee they have enough valid signatures.

Valid signatures come from registered voters who cast no ballots in either party's primary or runoffs. They also cannot sign both the Strayhorn and Friedman petition.

"A lot of people are going to be bugged to put their signature on a petition. Make sure it's the Kinky petition you sign, not the Strayhorn," Barkley said.

You already know my opinion on this.

Posted by Evan @ 01/08/06 10:37 PM | Comments (0)

07 January 2006

Sanders switches from state to campaign

Mark Sanders, who made the phone call suggesting that Chris Bell run for Comptroller, has moved from his Comptroller job to the Strayhorn campaign:

Mark Sanders, a top aide to Comptroller Carole Keeton Strayhorn, left his state job this week to focus full time on Strayhorn's independent gubernatorial campaign.

Sanders resigned Monday as special assistant for communications at the comptroller's office, a $12,000-a-month state job.

"The comptroller filed for governor on Monday," Sanders said. "I resigned my position with the state on Monday, and I will be working as her campaign spokesman."

Using about 150 hours of vacation time, Sanders helped with the Strayhorn campaign from June through mid-October in chunks of two to eight hours a day, records and interviews show.

Sanders was also Tony Sanchez's campaign spokesman in 2002.

Posted by Evan @ 01/07/06 10:19 AM | Comments (0)

06 January 2006

Peggy Fikac -- San Antonio Express News:

What's in a name? When it comes to getting information from Comptroller Carole Keeton Strayhorn, apparently quite a bit.

The tax-reform panel named by Gov. Rick Perry asked Strayhorn's office almost six weeks ago to analyze proposals to provide a longer August sales-tax holiday and to allow local-option sales tax increases to cut property taxes.

"It's a little bothersome that 99 percent of the Capitol is extending their hand to help us and we haven't heard back from the comptroller," said Robert Howden, staff director of the Texas Tax Reform Commission.

...

"Our agency policy is, the request should come from the elected official," [deputy comptroller] Ancira said. "One of the reasons is we want to make sure it's the official request of the office, whether it be a state representative or state senator, or in this case, Mr. (John) Sharp's commission."

This request, Ancira said, should come from Perry or Sharp, the Democratic former state comptroller named to head the commission. He said Strayhorn's staff told the commission staff about the policy "soon after if not the same day that request came in. We have not heard back."

Howden said neither he nor other commission staffers got that call.

"It would have been nice if somebody called me and told me that," Howden said.

Sometimes, I almost get the feeling like Strayhorn and Perry just don't like each other.

Posted by Evan @ 01/06/06 08:48 AM | Comments (0)

"Strayhorn bashes Perry's politics"

Beth Gallaspy at Beaumont Enterprise:

Independent candidate for governor Carole Keeton Strayhorn criticized incumbent Gov. Rick Perry Thursday for putting politics ahead of solving the state's problems.

Her speech at Southeast Texas Regional Airport was the third in a day of campaigning that included earlier stops in the Rio Grande Valley and Corpus Christi. After about 30 minutes with media representatives in Southeast Texas, she headed for Longview.

...

"He has given us higher property taxes, bigger government, higher insurance rates, toll roads, has abandoned our border and ignored our broken schools."

Strayhorn brushed aside the idea that by challenging Perry in November rather than in the Republican primary, she and Perry might split the Republican vote and make it easier for a Democrat to win.

"Unless we set aside partisan politics, we're never going to fix our problems," Strayhorn said, adding she has support from Republicans, Democrats, independents and people whose political affiliations she does not know.

Posted by Evan @ 01/06/06 08:44 AM | Comments (0)

Teaching intelligent design

Selby -- Statesman:

Gov. Rick Perry, a Republican who has made outreach to Christian conservatives a theme of his gubernatorial portfolio, thinks Texas public school students should be taught intelligent design along with evolutionary theory, his office said Thursday.

Three Democratic challengers for governor this year and independent hopeful Kinky Friedman disagreed. Independent candidate Carole Keeton Strayhorn had no immediate comment, and a little-known Democratic hopeful sided with Perry.

...

Democratic gubernatorial candidate Chris Bell, a former U.S. House member from Houston, said: "Things we teach kids in science class should have a scientific basis. Based on everything I have seen and heard, I fail to recognize the scientific basis for intelligent design."

Former Texas Supreme Court Justice Bob Gammage of Llano, another Democratic hopeful, said he supports the judge in the Pennsylvania case in that "teaching intelligent design is inappropriate for the class- room.

"There is a difference between physics and metaphysics, and I believe that we should teach the first in schools and the second in church," Gammage said.

Rashad Jafer of Houston, another Democratic aspirant, sided with Perry, saying he personally believes the universe was willed by a creator who will "one day take it away." He said evolution and intelligent design should be taught side by side.

Democratic candidate Felix Alvarado of Fort Worth said he opposes teaching intelligent design in science.

"In science, you teach science. In social studies, you cover religion," he said.

Friedman, of Kerrville, said of teaching intelligent design in science: "I'm agin it; there's nothing intelligent about it."

Posted by Evan @ 01/06/06 08:42 AM | Comments (0)

Texas Weekly

Texas Weekly (subscription required, but they're a mustread):

Call some pollsters and they'll talk to you about the votes due to a candidate just for the party label attached to that candidate's name. You can argue about the numbers, so we'll just be arbitrary about it: In the 2002 elections, David Dewhurst won with the smallest share of votes collected by any statewide Republican in a race with a Democrat: 52 percent. Marty Akins was on the Democratic end of that scale, getting the smallest share of the vote for a Democrat running against a Republican in a statewide race: 33 percent.

Some pollsters � reputable people, from good families, even � will tell you that Kinky Friedman and Carole Keeton Strayhorn will be fighting over what's left, plus whatever they can whittle away from those two party base votes. The conventional wisdom is that a five-way race with a Republican, a Democrat, a Libertarian and two independents would produce a Republican governor who gets into office with less than 50 percent of the vote.

Rick Perry's camp subscribes to that idea and so do many consultants we've jabbered with who aren't directly involved in anyone's campaign for governor. But there are some interesting possibilities out there that Friedman and Strayhorn hope to see to fruition.

They note a few ways the analysis could change: a Perry mistake, a school finance disaster, or Kinky/Carole gaining traction.

They also note the Democrats' plan, which is to focus on the base, and hope Strayhorn/Kinky split independents and leech GOP votes from Perry.

I agree with most of this, as it's remarkably similar to my analysis of the race several days ago when Strayhorn made her announcement.

Posted by Evan @ 01/06/06 08:28 AM | Comments (0)

05 January 2006

Perry and Strayhorn are dueling on the air

Robison -- Chronicle:

Gov. Rick Perry and independent challenger Carole Keeton Strayhorn both launch television commercials today, but with different spins on Texas' state of affairs.

Perry's spot brags about advances in economic development, job creation and education during his administration.

Strayhorn's ad focuses on the prolonged inability of Perry and legislative leaders to overhaul the school finance system, a problem she blames on "partisan politics."

...

Meanwhile, she continues to collect campaign cash from high-profile supporters. She received a $100,000 check from famed plaintiffs attorney Joe Jamail of Houston, on Wednesday, her son and campaign manager, Brad McClellan, said.

McClellan said Strayhorn's TV ad campaign cost at least $1 million.

Black said Perry's television buy was "substantial" but didn't provide a figure.

Posted by Evan @ 01/05/06 06:40 PM | Comments (0)

Strayhorn challenges Perry to debates

Odessas American -- Bill Modisett:

Texas Comptroller Carole Keeton Strayhorn challenged Gov. Rick Perry on Wednesday to debate the issues in the governor's race in the Permian Basin.

"I want to debate the issues with him anytime, anywhere, anyplace, and I think the Permian Basin would be as good a place as any," she said.

Strayhorn stopped at Midland International Airport Wednesday to announce she is seeking the governor�s office as an Independent. She was elected to the comptroller's office as a Republican.

Charging Perry has fractured the state politically, Strayhorn said, "He has made the politics of division worse in Austin, not better." She also asserted he has failed to provide leadership on such vital topics as school finance.

Strayhorn said the Texas Legislature has met nine times in five years without resolving the school finance problem.

"The Legislature is going to meet for the 10th time in five years this year, and we still don't have a school-finance plan. He's the reason there is no school-finance plan," she said. "Instead of fixing our problems, we see that our school funding is in crisis, property taxes are up and judges are having to do our governor's job."
Strayhorn said it makes sense to run as an Independent.

"I am a Republican, but I know we must set partisan politics aside and do what�s right for Texas," she said. "That is why I am running for governor as an Independent. We can't wait any longer."

I can't imagine that Gov. Perry is going to have a debate with anyone who isn't yet on the ballot.

Posted by Evan @ 01/05/06 03:42 PM | Comments (0)

04 January 2006

The Strayhorn Effect

One thing I want to stress: four way general elections are rare and put the race in a perpetual state of flux. The reason so many talking heads are saying different things is because there are so many different ways that the race could develop.

Each candidate will have to be continually evaluating and readjusting their tactics vis a vis each candidate based on what each of the other 3 candidates are doing.

Posted by Evan @ 01/04/06 06:43 PM | Comments (0)

Bell vs. Gammage

I'm not a Democrat. I don't know who will be endorsed by what organization. I couldn't tell you who has deep long-term connections with who.

That said, my intuition is that Bell is the favorite here. He's locked up lots of endorsements from Democratic officeholders and recent former officeholders (or at least that's my perception). He's been raising money, whereas Gammage has only been able to raise money for less than a month. The primary is only about 65 days away right now, and fundraising takes time. Every hour Gammage spends catching up to Bell (who probably hasn't raised that much money himself).

Bell's also been touring the state, and picking up the occasional news article. He has to have some name ID by now with Texas Democratic primary voters? Does Gammage have name ID? After not being in office for over 10 years (and even then, only a Texas Supreme Court justice), I doubt it. Not only is he starting from scratch money-wise, he's starting out close to scratch name ID-wise.

Further, because Bell has locked up a reasonable amount of endorsements, he's ahead in that game too.

So far as I can tell, neither Gammage or Bell intends to attack each other too harshly, and I don't see evidence yet that either will try to be more liberal or more of a "real Democrat" than the other. Surely there will be some of that and definitely the occasional sly insinuation, particularly by whoever is behind going into the closing weeks, but so far it looks like that may be small.

One thing I've noticed that bodes well for whoever wins the Democratic primary: it looks like both Bell and Gammage want to talk about reform and who the real reformer is. If the race stays this way, it segues perfectly into either's preferred general election theme. Because they aren't trying to out-ideology each other, they won't have to change the campaign message when the primary is over. Now I have my doubts about the efficacy of reform as a general election theme, but Gammage and Bell both seem committed to the theme, so two voices on the same period for the primary time period are definitely better than one.

What would change my mind that Bell is the favorite? Money. If Gammage announces a large amount raised in his short time raising money, then that would signal that the party's donors consider him worth backing. Further, it would help alleviate Gammage's name ID problem.

If any Democrats want to send me their analysis of the primary, I will consider printing it.

Posted by Evan @ 01/04/06 06:26 PM | Comments (3)

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