Rick Perry vs World

11 January 2006

DeLay vs World reminder

A reminder that my new blog Tom DeLay vs World is up and running. Click on through and check it out.

So far, all four Houston network affiliates and Time Warner Cable have refused to air the anti-DeLay ad.

Posted by Evan @ 01/11/06 08:13 PM | Comments (0)

Strahorn for governor

Comptroller Carole Strayhorn's campaign for governor filled out her declaration to filed as an independent...but didn't spell her name right. Comptroller Strayhorn still signed her name the correct way, but the form (filled out by her lawyer) spelled her name as "Strahorn" twice.

Well, she hasn't ever run for office as Strayhorn before.

Meanwhile, the Texas State Teachers Association PAC endorsed Strayhorn. TSTA represents 65,000 "educational employees." A teacher's union, the TSTA has always endorsed Democrats in the past, even endorsing Democrat Marty Akins over Strayhorn in her 2002 Comptroller race.

Perry has a big advantage in the endorsement game. Since most political observers didn't believe Strayhorn had a chance in the primary, most organizations have been endorsing him. He counts 140 endorsements, while this is Strayhorn's first.

It's a bit of a blow to Democrats, because a stalwart Democratic union is essentially offering their view of who is more likely to win. They apparently think Strayhorn has a better chance to win than the Democratic nominee -- witness the quote from the group's president, "It comes down to electability."

Updated 10am, 1/12.

Posted by Evan @ 01/11/06 08:02 PM | Comments (0)

Bell flanks left on abortion

Chris Bell released a letter criticizing Bob Gammage on abortion:

A dozen abortion-rights activists charged in a letter released Wednesday that Democratic gubernatorial candidate Bob Gammage abandoned their cause in Congress almost 30 years ago.

In a letter circulated by former U.S. Rep. Chris Bell, who is facing Gammage in the Democratic primary, 12 women said they could not trust Gammage "to take the heat and fight for our rights." Signers of the letter include Sarah Weddington, the lawyer who won the Roe v. Wade case that legalized abortion; Peggy Romberg, executive director of the Women's Health and Family Planning Association of Texas; and Heather Paffe, political director of the Texas Association of Planned Parenthood Affiliates. Bell aides said the women signed the letter as individuals and not on behalf of their groups.

The full text of the letter is here.

If the Democrat were set to face a Republican head-to-head, then perhaps flanking left on abortion might be a little more surprising. But Democrats are hoping to hold their base together, so they can move left in a multi-candidate election, instead of moving to the center.

Posted by Evan @ 01/11/06 07:53 PM | Comments (1)

DeLay joins Perry at Perry's Houston re-election announcement

KHOU:

Wednesday, a surprise guest accompanied Texas Governor Rick Perry as he came to Houston to launch his re-election campaign.

Controversial Congressman Tom DeLay offered his support to Perry in what is turning into a ruthless race for governor.

Rick Perry brought his re-election waltz across Texas to Houston.

"Our jobs are at an all time high. Frivolous lawsuits are on the decline," said Governor Perry told the crowd.

Outside he attracted four young cheerleaders and five detractors who were old enough to vote.

"He's done nothing in education," a protester said.

In theory a republican running for re-election in a republican state should feel pretty comfortable.

"Our work isn't done, not by a long shot. Which is why I'm a candidate for governor in 2006," Governor Perry said.

But here's where it gets interesting.

Comptroller Carol Keeton Strayhorn is a Republican, though she's running against Perry as an Independent.

Only even as she says it on a television commercial, a close look reveals it says Republican under her name.

Perry didn't want to talk with 11 News.

But Congressman Tom Delay weighed in on independents.

"I think they're a novelty that Texans kind of enjoy and they make the race kinda funny," said Tom Delay, R-Sugar Land.

It's Carole Strayhorn, but plenty of people search for Carol, so I won't correct it for them.

The Houston Chronicle's coverage is here.

Posted by Evan @ 01/11/06 07:46 PM | Comments (0)

10 January 2006

January 17th -- fundraising report deadline

January 17th is the deadline for gubernatorial campaigns to file their campaign finance reports, for the period ending December 31, 2005.

In the next few days, the campaigns should start playing the expectations game and announcing how much money they've raised.

This is particularly a big deal for Chris Bell and Bob Gammage, as they both have a primary coming up in two months. For Friedman, it's a chance to show the state's politicos that he is a serious candidate. It'll also be interesting to see how much Strayhorn was able to raise while she was still a Republican primary challenger rumored to go independent (Strayhorn declared she was running as an independent after the fundraising period was over).

UPDATE: A nod to "Democratic Skeptic" in the comments, for the reminder that Kinky burned through lots of money that he'd raised in the last fundraising report. It will be interesting to see if that is true again. If the burn rate is as high as it was on the last report, that might slow his fundraising.

Posted by Evan @ 01/10/06 01:48 PM | Comments (2)

New Rasmussen poll numbers

Via Greg, Rasmussen released polls on the Texas governor and Senate races.

It's the first poll I've seen that tested the new four-way race. They tested Chris Bell as the Democratic nominee, and plan to test Bob Gammage next week. At this stage in the game, the numbers should be similar for either candidate the Democrats nominate.

Governor:
Rick Perry 40%
Strayhorn 21%
Chris Bell 14%
Friedman 12%

Senate:
Kay Bailey Hutchison 64%
Barbara Ann Radnosky 25%
Other 4%
Not Sure 6%

Both polls are of 500 likely voters, +/- 4.5% MoE.

They don't provide any crosstabs for free, so it's hard to dissect the poll to make sure the poll is accurate or to draw precise conclusions. Instead, we have to rely on the fact that Rasmussen has a reasonably good track record. The screen they used for likely voters could matter if voter interest in the race is high (which is possible). So let's view this poll as a general fuzzy indicator of where the race stands at this point.

Quick thoughts:

1. The numbers are generally believable, and more or less comports with my analysis.

2. About 15% remains unaccounted for/undecided in the governor numbers, and thus still up for grabs.

3. Strayhorn appears to be winning at least a few points from Democrats, Republicans, and swing voters. That's not too surprising. She also may benefit a few points from the fact that the poll was done immediately after she announced her run as an independent.

4. Friedman is taking most of his support from the Democratic nominee, and shows that Strayhorn's decision hurts him the most.

5. A four way race is very fluid. In a race like this, there will be people who switch close to election day from one candidate to another because the other candidate has a better chance to win.

6. I think the Democratic nominee is very likely to garner more than 14% on election day, unless Democrats decide en masse that they'd prefer Strayhorn to Perry (I think this is still an open question, though unlikely).

7. This race is fascinating. Because it's so fluid, there are so many ways the race could play out, which makes prognostication an exponentially more difficult task than normal.

The Senate numbers are no surprise. Hutchison is like George W. Bush: she's simply too popular to be beaten in a Texas general election. She wins at least a few points more in a general election now than even W would.

Posted by Evan @ 01/10/06 09:47 AM | Comments (1)

09 January 2006

SAEN on Kinky

San Antonio Express News has a longish piece on on the Friedman campaign.

Posted by Evan @ 01/09/06 11:03 PM | Comments (0)

Dueling takes on Gammage's announcement

Bob Gammage has begun his announcement tour. Here are two different takes. One, from Jason Embry at the Statesman (who took advantage of his time in Sugar Land to also collect quotes on DeLay)

Gubernatorial candidate Bob Gammage took aim at Gov. Rick Perry and President Bush this morning but said little about his opponents in the Democratic primary as he launched a three-day swing around the state to draw attention to his fledgling campaign.

Gammage stopped in an airport terminal with Ben Grant, a former lawmaker and judge who is running for lieutenant governor, in embattled Republican U.S. Rep. Tom DeLay's hometown. Gammage used to represent the area in Congress.

"I have a son who just returned from Baghdad," said Gammage, a former Supreme Court justice, congressman and state representative. "He did his duty, and I'm going to do mine. Duty requires us to tell the truth. The truth is that Rick Perry is failing Texas. The bitter truth is that George Bush is failing us, too."

Gammage and Grant are talking up their role in the Dirty 30, a group of state lawmakers who pushed for ethics reform in the early 1970s.

As he did when he announced his candidacy, he brought along a photo of a yacht to draw attention to Perry's 2004 trip to the Bahamas to discuss school finance reform. Perry made the trip with, among others, anti-tax guru Grover Norquist and James Leininger, a heavyweight GOP campaign donor who supports allowing students to use public money to attend private schools.

Gammage listed among his priorities clean air and water, ethics reform, stronger corporate regulations, prescription-drug price relief, affordable health insurance and fair funding for schools.

Second take is from the AP:

Former Texas Supreme Court Justice Bob Gammage launched his campaign for governor Monday, ignoring his opponents in the March Democratic primary election and instead targeting Republican Gov. Rick Perry.

Gammage, who was a member of the "Dirty 30" state legislators known for battling corruption in the early 1970s, called Perry a weak leader who can't fight corruption or solve the state's problems. He said his campaign would focus on "the corrupt out-of-control political machine that stretches all the way from Washington, D.C., to Austin, Texas."

Gammage, 67, linked Perry to U.S. Rep. Tom DeLay, whose legal problems prompted him Saturday to permanently relinquish his majority leader's post.

"Tom DeLay is at one end and Rick Perry is at the other," Gammage said during a news conference in DeLay's congressional district that Gammage once represented.

A spokesman for Perry's campaign called Gammage's remarks "hollow criticism."

Gammage, who was beginning a four-day, 13-city campaign tour, has served in the Legislature and the U.S. House, and has been an appellate and state Supreme Court justice.

"We need a governor strong enough to stand up and speak out when Washington policies are hurting ordinary Texans," Gammage said. He said Perry is a "weak governor with a record of failure" on school finance, the environment, tax policy and health care, Gammage said.

Gammage displayed a photo of a luxury yacht similar to one Perry visited in the Bahamas with contributors to discuss school finance reform.

"I'm running against government conducted from yachts," Gammage said. "I will not make policy as governor of Texas from the Bahamas. I'll do it from the state capitol in Austin."

Perry spokesman Robert Black noted that the Texas Ethics Commission cleared Perry of any wrongdoing on the Bahamas trip.

"It's very easy to criticize, but leaders actually produce solutions," Black said. "Bob Gammage is offering little more than hollow criticism."

Gammage promised to raise the minimum wage to $6.50 an hour, amend the state constitution to guarantee the right to clean air and water, pass ethics reform and corporate responsibility acts, reform the Texas tax code, regulate prescription drug costs, guarantee fair funding for Texas school districts and work with Congress on affordable health care.

"Stand up and speak out" about Washington policies? That's an interesting line.

Posted by Evan @ 01/09/06 10:57 PM | Comments (0)

"Minorities don't feel top-ticket excitement"

...is the headline of Gromer Jeffers' DMN article.

Not long after candidates had filed to run in this year's local and state elections, La Joya Mayor Billy Leo went to work trying to help Democrats win.

But the South Texan's focus was not on the races for governor, lieutenant governor or other statewide offices. In Hidalgo County, the hottest primary race pits County Judge Ramon Garcia against challenger J.D. Salinas.

"Nobody is paying any attention to the top of the ticket," Mr. Leo said. "We're all wondering, who are these people? There is no excitement at the top of both parties. Other than Carole Strayhorn, there is nothing to talk about."

In a state where minorities are expected to one day be the key to political power, Mr. Leo and others are wondering why the biggest races this year are devoid of any popular, well-financed Hispanic or black contenders � in either party.

Some blame the Democratic and Republican parties for not stepping up their outreach and grooming minorities to run for the state's highest offices. Others say minority candidates are still waiting for demographic shifts that would make statewide candidacies more feasible.

"The Democratic Party is not really spreading out," Mr. Leo said. "Where is the diversity? Where are the fresh candidates?"

All of the major Republicans running for statewide offices this year are white, except two incumbent Supreme Court justices. Democrats can claim Hispanic candidates for governor and lieutenant governor, but they are little-known.

If this gubernatorial election ends up as a base/turn out election, it wouldn't be good for a substantial portion of the Democratic base to be unmotivated to vote.
...is the headline of Gromer Jeffers' DMN article.

Not long after candidates had filed to run in this year's local and state elections, La Joya Mayor Billy Leo went to work trying to help Democrats win.

But the South Texan's focus was not on the races for governor, lieutenant governor or other statewide offices. In Hidalgo County, the hottest primary race pits County Judge Ramon Garcia against challenger J.D. Salinas.

"Nobody is paying any attention to the top of the ticket," Mr. Leo said. "We're all wondering, who are these people? There is no excitement at the top of both parties. Other than Carole Strayhorn, there is nothing to talk about."

In a state where minorities are expected to one day be the key to political power, Mr. Leo and others are wondering why the biggest races this year are devoid of any popular, well-financed Hispanic or black contenders � in either party.

Some blame the Democratic and Republican parties for not stepping up their outreach and grooming minorities to run for the state's highest offices. Others say minority candidates are still waiting for demographic shifts that would make statewide candidacies more feasible.

"The Democratic Party is not really spreading out," Mr. Leo said. "Where is the diversity? Where are the fresh candidates?"

All of the major Republicans running for statewide offices this year are white, except two incumbent Supreme Court justices. Democrats can claim Hispanic candidates for governor and lieutenant governor, but they are little-known.

If this gubernatorial election ends up as a base/turn out election, it wouldn't be good for a substantial portion of the Democratic base to be unmotivated to vote.

Posted by Evan @ 01/09/06 10:36 PM | Comments (0)

Democratic primary rumor

Perry Dorrell:

Want some news that's not quite ready for publication? One of the leading 2008 Democratic presidential candidates will be in Houston before the end of January to campaign for his friend who's on the ballot.

I have no idea if the rumor is true, but considering the work that Bob Gammage did for Wes Clark, I would assume that is the 2008 candidate in question.

Posted by Evan @ 01/09/06 03:15 PM | Comments (0)

[Previous 10 Entries] [Next 10 Entries]

SITE MENU

+ Rick Perry vs World
+ About Me

+ Archives

+ Email:
perryvsworld* at *gmail dot com

ADVERTISING

SYNDICATION

DISCLAIMER

Rick Perry vs. World is powered by Nucleus.

Site design and Nucleus customization by Kevin Whited.