Rick Perry vs World

17 January 2006

Fundraising tally

Reporting period: 7/1/05 - 12/31/05

Total raised 2nd half of 2005:
Rick Perry: $4.6 million
Carole Strayhorn: $2.4 million
Kinky Friedman: $0.97 million to $1.26 million
Bob Gammage: $67k ($0.07 million)
Chris Bell: $356k ($0.36 million)

Cash on hand:
Rick Perry: $11.5 million
Carole Strayhorn: $8.1 million
Kinky Friedman: $0.25 million
Bob Gammage: $53k ($0.05 million)
Chris Bell: $165k ($0.17 million)

Approximate amount spent in 2nd half of 2005:*
Rick Perry: $1.85 million
CaroleStrayhorn: $1.4 million
Kinky Friedman: $0.75 million to $1 million
Bob Gammage: $14k ($0.01 million)
Chris Bell: $201k ($0.2 million)

* I calculated this myself, based on previous fundraising numbers.

I have errands to run now, but hopefully commenters will do the analysis for me. I can hope anyway.

Posted by Evan @ 01/17/06 04:43 PM | Comments (0)

Money money money

Shannon, AP:

Former congressman Chris Bell, who's competing against former court justice Bob Gammage in the March 7 Democratic gubernatorial primary, raised $356,422 in the six-month period that ended Dec. 31 and had $165,444 in cash on hand.

Gammage, who formally entered the race in December, raised $67,109 and had $52,940 in cash available at the end of the reporting period, his campaign said.

Those numbers were dwarfed by the figures revealed Friday by Perry and Strayhorn, the state comptroller. Both filed their official reports Tuesday with the Texas Ethics Commission.

Perry raised $4.6 million and had $11.5 million in cash on hand, while Strayhorn raised $2.4 million and had $8.1 million in cash. Independent candidate Kinky Friedman said he raised about $1 million in the six months, but spent most of it.

The only new numbers are from Democrats Chris Bell and Bob Gammage. Gammage raised $67k in two weeks, while Bell raised $356k in 6 months.

Be careful into reading too much into that though. Usually the early fundraising is the "low hanging fruit" of loyal friends and supporters.

Here is a compilation of the fundraising numbers.

Posted by Evan @ 01/17/06 04:33 PM | Comments (0)

Royal Masset: Perry a 9:1 favorite

Republican consultant and Quorum Report contributor Royal Masset writes that he thinks Rick Perry has a 90% chance of winning.

His breakdown:

Rick Perry 40%
Carole Strayhorn 30%
Felix Alvarado 25%
Kinky Friedman 5%

Masset thinks Alvarado will win the Democratic primary like Victor Morales, whose underfunded campaign had strong enough support largely from Hispanics to beat two Congressman in 1996.

What's interesting to me is that Masset predicts 90% chance for Perry, but then spends much of his analysis hedging his bets by writing how Strayhorn will run a strong campaign.

Posted by Evan @ 01/17/06 04:27 PM | Comments (2)

Shorts

1. Perry says he'll call the required special session on school finance in April or May.

2. SAEN covers RAdnofsky's trip to San Antonio.

3. The Beaumont Enterprise writes up Texans for Texas, which aims to track the political donations of trial lawyers. There's a few interesting quotes in there from some of the trial lawyers.

Posted by Evan @ 01/17/06 04:07 PM | Comments (0)

16 January 2006

Quick links

Part two of the Midland Reporter Telegram's gubernatorial race series.

Brownsville Herald previews the governor's race as well.

Posted by Evan @ 01/16/06 08:48 AM | Comments (0)

15 January 2006

Perry interview

Apparently while swinging through Abilene, Perry gave an interview to Bob Campbell of the Midland Reporter-Telegram. It's a two-parter, the first is today.

Meanwhile, Rick Perry and Bill White are firing the starting guns at the Houston marathon this morning. Perry is then running the half-marathon.

Posted by Evan @ 01/15/06 01:28 PM | Comments (0)

14 January 2006

The debate about debates

AP:

arole Keeton Strayhorn wants to debate Gov. Rick Perry any time, anywhere. Kinky Friedman also wants in on the action.

But Perry won't commit to debating anyone until he knows exactly who is going to be on the November election ballot. That won't be clear for a while, given the strange circumstances in this year's Texas governor's race.

Whatever arrangements are made, it's already evident that Strayhorn and Friedman — the two independent candidates running for governor — expect televised debates to help them in their respective bids to defeat Perry, the entrenched Republican incumbent.

"We want to debate early and often," said Mark Sanders, spokesman for Strayhorn, the state's comptroller. "The comptroller is an amazing speaker with a clear vision of where she wants to take the state."

In Friedman's case, getting on stage and on the air with the major candidates in the race should boost his candidacy and expose the humorist's plain-talking message to a wide audience, say his advisers and an outside political expert.

...

In deciding whether to include candidates, the partnership in the past has looked to criteria such as whether a candidate is legally on the ballot; whether a candidate is actively campaigning, including operating a campaign headquarters; and whether a candidate has received at least 6 percent in an independent poll or average of polls.

When we get close to having debates, it should be a very interesting debate about debates.

Who will want who in all depends on where the polls are at that stage in the game.

Posted by Evan @ 01/14/06 11:32 PM | Comments (0)

13 January 2006

Fundraising numbers!

UPDATED 1/17 to include Democrats

Reporting period: 7/1/05 - 12/31/05

Cash on hand:
Rick Perry: $11.5 million
Carole Strayhorn: $8.1 million
Kinky Friedman: $0.25 million
Bob Gammage: $53k ($0.05 million)
Chris Bell: $165k ($0.17 million)

* I calculated this myself, based on previous fundraising numbers.

Chris Bell and Bob Gammage have not provided numbers yet.

Kelley Shannon has the AP coverage.

My thoughts:

1. Perry spent the most, but he also has the most to spend. Also, Perry's campaign often picks up the tab when he travels, so that's not too surprising.

2. The difference between Perry and Strayhorn might be partly explained by the money Perry spent attempting to pressure the legislature on school finance. Both Perry and Strayhorn spent reasonable amounts.

3. Kinky Friedman is still burning through money. His burn rate last time was bad (last reporting period he raised
$300k and spent $285k), and it doesn't look any better this time. There's two main reasons this is bad for Friedman: 1) big donors are less likely to give if they see you have a high burn rate, 2) Friedman needs money in the future. Not only does he need to spend to get on the ballot, but he'll need money for a media campaign.

4. Kinky's burn rate may not be as bad at it initially looks (and initially, it looks very bad). Some of their money raising tactics (campaign store, Kinky Friedman dolls) were undoubtedly expensive. If they've spent lots of money on dolls that they are able to sell, then the report might be misleading. We won't know this until they file their official campaign finance report, and we get to look through it sometime mid-next week. I'll have a post when I get a chance to look through the reports.

5. Strayhorn was a Perry primary challenger during this reporting period. She did not declare her independent candidacy until AFTER the period was over.

UPDATED 1/17, 4:30pm with numbers from Democrats

Posted by Evan @ 01/13/06 05:26 PM | Comments (0)

Quick shorts

1. Kristen Mack on Kinky Friedman's Houston fundraiser. Friedman described his base as "unlikely and disgusted voters of Texas" while saying he didn't know who Strayhorn's base would be. He also promised not to run for re-election, if elected. The fundraiser raised $80k for the campaign.

2. Longer writup of all the particulars of a Perry campaign stop. My favorite part:

Unopposed in his March 7 primary, except by a couple of little-known Republicans, Perry creates a festive, rurally oriented environment in his rallies, whose rhythms are set by such recordings as "Like Texas in the 1880s," and George Strait's "Heartland, If It Wasn't for Texas" and the Texas-based Fabulous Thunderbirds' "Tough Enough."

Radney Foster! I can't believe the reporter left out Radney Foster -- and the song is called Texas in 1880 -- but good choice by the Perry campaign.

And the article even has Perry bantering with reporters.

Posted by Evan @ 01/13/06 05:09 PM | Comments (0)

12 January 2006

Gammage fires back at Bell on abortion

Kelley Shannon, AP:

The Democratic race for governor grew more contentious Thursday as Bob Gammage said his record in public office is being distorted by opponent Chris Bell and that he would be willing to debate Bell in the coming weeks.

"If he wants to misrepresent and distort my record, that's his call," Gammage told news reporters in Austin. "If he wants to debate, that's fine with me."

Bell's campaign is interested in a debate, and campaign officials are having internal discussions about it, spokesman Jason Stanford said. The two campaigns have not talked to each other about it. The Democratic primary is March 7.

"I've said all along that this is an exciting choice for Democrats — about looking into the future or reaching in the past," Stanford said. "I'm sure there will be discussions. I'm sure there will be debates."

...

"I was pro-choice before women had a choice," [Gammage] said, adding that his votes in Congress were about whether the government should fund abortions, not whether women should be able to have them. The ruling governing abortion was still unclear at the time, in 1977, he added.

"Today I wouldn't vote that way," [Gammage] said. "You learn things with time."

My quick thoughts:

1. Gammage now says he'd have voted for governmental funding of abortion. He isn't going to let Bell try to get to the left of him on abortion.

2. The TSTA teacher's union endorsement of Carole Strayhorn hurts Democrats. In a four or five way race, Democrats have a chance if they can hold on to the Democratic base. However, when the TSTA breaks with its own Democratic tradition to endorse Strayhorn, it's a bad sign for the Democratic nominee.

So it makes eminent sense to try to rev up the Democratic base by focusing on something like abortion. By fighting over it in a primary, they might fire up the activists on the left and get them to stick with the Democratic party.

Posted by Evan @ 01/12/06 04:47 PM | Comments (0)

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