Rick Perry vs World

04 January 2006

Strayhorn is going on the air

From the AP:

Independent gubernatorial candidate Carole Keeton Strayhorn will reintroduce herself to Texans tomorrow via television.

The 30-second T-V ad will remind voters that the state comptroller is still a Republican and "one tough grandma."

Posted by Evan @ 01/04/06 05:25 PM | Comments (0)

Tom DeLay vs World

In case you missed it, I renamed my new blog to Tom DeLay vs. the World instead of DeLay vs. Lampson.

DeLay vs World seemed apt given the number of opponents and the similar branding with this blog. Thanks to the smart people who suggested it.

There's a few background posts up now, and I'll try to get more in during the next day or two. Check it out.

Posted by Evan @ 01/04/06 12:00 PM | Comments (0)

Casey on Friedman

Rick Casey has a column in the Houston Chronicle today about Kinky Friedman. I'm not sure how to summarize it or excerpt it. I think he's arguing that Friedman is too independent to win, but I'll just point you to it and let you decide for yourself.

Posted by Evan @ 01/04/06 09:48 AM | Comments (0)

No runoffs

A reader asked me this question yesterday:

I remember Ann Richards being in a runoff one year. Are there still runoffs for Gubernatorial Candidates- if so that could drastically change your predictions.

I replied thus:

My guess is that you remember a primary runoff.

The law is written such that all elections are decided by plurality vote unless otherwise specified. Primaries are the only elections that require a majority vote and thus runoffs.

Good question though. You made me nervous enough to go re-check the election code.

So, under some crazy scenarios, the next governor could be elected with a mere 33% of the vote.

Posted by Evan @ 01/04/06 09:37 AM | Comments (3)

Prognosticating is fun

Jason Embry has his own analysis article up at the Statesman:

"You'd have to say as of today (Perry) is still the favorite but a new dynamic was introduced," said Bruce Buchanan, who teaches government at the University of Texas. "The new dynamic is that Perry will have an opponent with relatively deep pockets and a relatively high profile for eight more months than he would have if Strayhorn had stayed in the Republican primary."

A candidate does not need a majority of the vote for victory.

The first obstacles in front of Strayhorn and Friedman, though, are landing on the November ballot by getting 45,540 signatures from registered voters who do not participate in this year's Republican or Democratic primaries.

"What somebody like Strayhorn has to do is capture all the independent vote, which is not much more than 15 or 20 percent, and then detach a significant number of Republicans and Democrats in order to get to a margin as great as the margin that Perry would get," Buchanan said.

Mike Baselice, a pollster who works for Perry, said the 2002 statewide elections indicate that about 50 percent of Texans are Republicans and 35 percent are Democrats.

"Give Strayhorn all the independent votes and give her 5 percent more from Republicans and Democrats, and she's up to 25 percent," Baselice said. "That's like the worst-case scenario for the Republican and Democrat and the best case for her. And what about Kinky Friedman getting some of the independent vote?"

He said he has not done any polling on a four-candidate race. Strayhorn's camp last month declined to say whether they were behind a poll that asked voters whether they would support her as an independent.

Perry, who faces three little-known challengers in the GOP primary, will have to deal with potential Republican pitfalls. Cal Jillson, a political science professor at Southern Methodist University, said Perry could lose moderate Republicans who were suspicious of the 2003 congressional redistricting plan that Republicans pushed in the Legislature and which the U.S. Supreme Court has agreed to review.

Is Jillson serious? Redistricting is a process issue, and process issues are not persuasive issues to voters unless they can be placed in a larger context. That's not easy to do. As a political issue, redistricting is something that is best used to raise money through direct mail.

I've long respected Baselice as one of the best, and I basically agree with him, since what he says is similar to what I said yesterday my own long analysis.

It's definitely possible for Strayhorn or Friedman to draw large numbers away from the Republican or Democrat lines, but it's a very high hurdle to jump. There's still a large segment of voters who will vote for their party's nominee.

Posted by Evan @ 01/04/06 09:34 AM | Comments (1)

On petition gathering

AP -- Kelley Shannon on Strayhorn and Friedman's adventures in petition gathering:

To make it onto the Texas ballot for governor in the November 2006 general election as an independent, a candidate must gather the signatures of 45,540 registered Texas voters. None of those names can be voters who cast ballots in either the Republican or Democratic party primaries March 7 or runoffs in April.

The campaigns will have 60 days to meet the requirement, but that time frame would be shortened by runoffs.

Friedman, a musician and author, has been saying for months that his campaign has volunteers gearing up to gather signatures all over Texas.

Strayhorn, who announced her independent candidacy Monday, was asked by a news reporter if she had the political operation in place to gather 45,540 signatures. Her reply hinted that she hopes to get much of that petition support from educators.

"Listen," she said, "there are not just 45,000 teachers in this state, there are 280,000 teachers and they have families and ... it's about education."

Because some political firms are accustomed to hiring people to circulate petitions for local initiatives, gathering the names of registered voters for a governor's race shouldn't be difficult for Friedman or Strayhorn, said Harvey Kronberg, publisher of the Austin-based online newsletter The Quorum Report.

"I don't think either is going to have any trouble," he said.

Kronberg placed the cost of gathering the signatures at about $1.75 to $3 per name. That totals about $136,000 on the high end. Petition gatherers would presumably try to get some extra signatures just in case some of the signatures proved to be invalid, he said.

There are 12.5 million registered voters in Texas.

The going rate for petitions is about $2 per name. I'm interested in how much of a premium will be charged. Before, I'd estimated that the price might be 50-100% higher per name.

Also, because both campaigns will gather more signatures than is necessary, I'd suggest that the cost will likely be closer to $200,000 than the cited $136,000 for each campaign.

Posted by Evan @ 01/04/06 08:53 AM | Comments (0)

Be careful who you marry

Via Drew at Safety, the AP:

The wife of a state representative filed Monday to run against her husband in a South Texas race that both candidates said coincides with an impending divorce.

Democratic state Rep. Armando "Mando" Martinez, an incumbent from Weslaco, faces a primary challenge from his wife, Jessica Reyes-Martinez. The District 39 seat covers part of Hidalgo County.

Reyes-Martinez, 28, filed as a candidate in the March 7 primary only 30 minutes before the Monday deadline, The Monitor reported in its Tuesday edition. She's making her first bid for public office and is now a homemaker.

"I'm actually running for office, not against him," Reyes-Martinez told the McAllen newspaper. "It just happens he's in office right now."

Seems like this happens somewhere every couple of years, but it's still amusing.

Posted by Evan @ 01/04/06 08:39 AM | Comments (0)

03 January 2006

DeLay vs. World launches

As hinted at yesterday, the Rick Perry vs. the World Media Empire, Inc. is expanding. It is not long before I will practically be Rupert Murdoch.

As a trial, I'm going to do Tom DeLay vs the World. It'll be like this blog, only the focus will be on congressional district 22. You knew that though, right? The site is still a little rough, but there's already a background post on CD22 demographics, and I'll be putting a few posts up in the next day or so.

If people start coming by regularly, then I'll keep doing it. My GoogleAds revenue will increase exponentially. How else will I become Rupert Murdoch?

(yeah yeah, I know I'm not as funny as Eileen.)

UPDATE: I changed the name to Tom DeLay vs. the World.

Posted by Evan @ 01/03/06 06:24 PM | Comments (3)

White House reaction

Julie Mason has the White House's reaction to Strayhorn's decision to run for governor as an independent:

The Texas governor's race is just getting started and already White House loyalties are divided, with President Bush backing Gov. Rick Perry and White House spokesman Scott McClellan supporting his mother, Carole Keeton Strayhorn.

"The president will support the Republican nominee, and it's pretty clear the Republican nominee will be his friend, Rick Perry," McClellan said today.

Strayhorn, the Texas comptroller elected as a Republican, announced Monday that she will run as an independent in the governor's race.

The White House spokesman is the youngest of her four sons.

"My mother cares deeply about Texas, and she has my full support," McClellan said.

By running as an independent, Strayhorn avoids facing the incumbent in a GOP primary battle that tends to favor the more conservative candidate.

Strayhorn, campaigning as "one tough grandma," said she is still a Republican and understands Bush's decision to support Perry.

Perry, who like Strayhorn was once a Democrat, served as lieutenant governor when Bush was governor.

"I respect what he's got to do, he is still my good friend," Strayhorn said of Bush during a campaign swing around the state. "He's got to do what he's got to do. My focus is Texas."

The president generally refrains from making endorsements in contested Republican primary races, but Perry did not draw a primary opponent this year. So Strayhorn's decision to run as an independent saves Bush from having to answer a lot of awkward questions about his choice in the primary.

"The president considers my mother a friend," McClellan said.

Given that Strayhorn left the GOP primary to run as an independent, this made it much easier for the White House.

I doubt the White House has made firm decisions yet on how involved to be in the race. If the race shaped up where Strayhorn wasn't garnering much of the vote, but there was a Democratic nominee who looked capable of winning, then I think you might see some involvement. On the other hand, if it's a blowout like in 2002, then they will keep their powder dry. In between is where the interesting decisions would happen.

Also, Ken Mehlman, Chairman of the Republican National Committee issued this statement:

Rick Perry is a strong leader who has championed the conservative principles that have made Texas a beacon of opportunity for the whole nation. The Republican Party wholeheartedly and strongly supports his campaign and will work for his re-election.

Posted by Evan @ 01/03/06 06:22 PM | Comments (0)

Where the race stands today -- overview and analysis

My thoughts on the Strayhorn announcement:

1. Why it is good for Democrats:
It shakes things up, and makes the race more fluid. Anything which gets the Democrats out of a standard Republican vs. Democrat election cycle is good for Texas Democrats right now.

If Strayhorn qualifies for the ballot, then Strayhorn will be another voice that criticizes Rick Perry for the duration of the election cycle. Campaign messages are all about repetition, and this campaign will (if ballot qualifications are met) feature three candidates who likely spend a majority of their time criticizing

Clearly, there's also the possibility that Strayhorn and Perry will split the Republican vote to the point where Bell/Gammage can hold the Democratic base and win.

Of course, it's bad for Democrats in three major ways: 1) trial lawyers may decide to give Carole Strayhorn money instead of the Democratic nominee. Since plaintiffs' lawyers are the primary funder of Democratic campaigns in Texas these days, this could bode poorly for the Democrats. 2) Strayhorn may drown them out, and Bell/Gammage may not be able to distinguish their criticisms of Perry from Strayhorn's, giving the Dem nominee little chance to reach beyond the base. 3) The anti-Perry vote is split.

2. Why it's good for Perry:
As Perry's campaign sent out post-Strayhorn announcement, Strayhorn is essentially conceding that she couldn't have beaten Perry in the primary.

A year ago, it looked very precarious as to whether Perry would survive the GOP primary, and now he is unopposed. Nobody could have forseen that a year ago.

He's also still a strong favorite for re-election.

3. Why it could be good for Kinky Friedman:
Friedman's campaign is being run straight out of the Jesse Ventura playbook. That's not a slam on Friedman's campaign; after all, Ventura won.

But one of the reasons Ventura won in 1998 was because he was the voice of reason. While respective Dem and GOP nominees Humphrey and Coleman (now Senator) argued and bickered partisanly (with the partisanship of impeachment as a backdrop to the election), Ventura appeared to be above the fray.

There's a lesson here for Friedman.

4. Why it's good for Carole Keeton Strayhorn:
Comptroller Strayhorn wasn't going to win the Republican primary, unless she really found a way to bottle lightning. Going independent probably improves her chance of being elected governor, although it's still going to be an uphill battle.

How it all plays out:
Politics is about math [wait, I thought all politics was local. Which is it? -- ed. Shut up.] and Rick Perry is the favorite in a four candidate scenario because he has the largest base. I estimate Perry's absolute minimum base at 35%. If we assume that the Democrats base is about 30%, then that leaves only 35% for Strayhorn and Friedman.

Who is the Democrats' base? It's white liberals and African-Americans. Now, is the Democrats base solid? Quite possibly not. Like Kuffner, I see significant numbers of cars with Kinky Friedman and KerryEdwards bumper stickers. These aren't African-Americans. I always check the ethnicity of the driver, and it is invariably white, and it is invariably an expensive car.

Why? Gay marriage. Right now, gay marriage is probably the most polarizing issue in America today, moreso even than abortion. Whether you think gay marriage is right or wrong, political reality right now is that gay marriage is a strong motivating factor for voters [though I wouldn't be surprised if the political landscape is much different 20 years from now]. I actually think there are a large contingent of both left-leaning and right-leaning voters who would consider Friedman as a candidate, however, enough of the middle-class white voters that Friedman needs most will probably not vote for him. And yes, I know Friedman isn't running on gay marriage, but if Friedman were ever in striking distance of winning, I feel confident that there would be a media campaign on the issue. Thus, given the lack of current support for gay marriage in Texas, Friedman probably has no chance of winning unless he's able to neutralize the issue, a la Mitt Romney did in 2002 with abortion in Massachusetts.

I think Friedman ultimately draws slightly more from the Democrats' base than he does from disaffected right-leaning swing voters.

So, that leaves us with Perry 35%, Bell/Gammage 25%, Friedman 5% (5% being 1/3 of white liberals). That leaves us with 35% of the vote left, probably 2/3 (23%) of which lean rightward and 12% of which lean leftward.

Given that Perry will raise the most money, do we really not think that Perry will be able to win enough of this remaining percent of the vote? I do, though if a Democrat can successfully hold all white liberals and African-Americans together while reaching some swing voters, and Strayhorn is able to siphon off a large portion of Perry's softer right-leaning support, then the Democrats have a chance. Notice that there are a few conditions on that statement.

As I write this, I've been wondering how people will disagree with me. My guess is that people will quibble with my assumption that Perry's absolute minimum base being 35%. To those people I ask this question: even if school finance were to fail miserably and everything were to go wrong for Rick Perry, do you really think that any Republican nominee will get less than 35% of the vote? If you do, then -- barring an ethics scandal on the order of Watergate -- we fundamentally disagree and I think you should go examine recent election results.

You could also argue that I'm wrong about Friedman...that could be. With independent candidates (this applies to both Strayhorn and Friedman), it is very hard to be seen as a reasonable alternative. Voters don't see you as a possible winner, and so they won't vote for you. This is a very difficult perception to overcome. Also, Kinky Friedman is a first-time candidate, and first-time candidates for big offices like governor of Texas generally lack the discipline necessary to win. The chance that Friedman blows up is definitely above negligible.

My analysis doesn't sound good at all for Carole Strayhorn, which I didn't fully realize until I started writing it. But quite simply, Republican voters will need a strong, strong reason to depart from the Republican party line. That's very difficult to do, although not impossible, when you are as good of a campaigner as she is. Unfortunately for her, as election day draws near, if Democrats appear to have a chance of victory, Republicans will probably vote for the Republican most likely to win, which would likely be the incumbent.

One more point about Strayhorn: her once-favorable editorials have turned considerably more negative lately. She once seemed to be receiving the most favorable coverage of any candidate, however her coverage has been much less favorable in the last few months. If she is to have a chance, this needs to be turned around.

Bottom line: Perry is still a strong favorite, because he will have partisan loyalty, the powers of incumbency, and the most money to spend. It will be difficult for Strayhorn to position herself as having a chance to win, but if she can, she may be able to counteract the partisan loyalty. Strayhorn's entry of the race is definitely good for Democrats, because it shakes up the race and adds considerable fluidity. However, this is still a strongly Republican state. While my analysis shows that the race will be tough for the Democratic nominee, it's not impossible if Strayhorn is able to split the Republican vote with Perry and the Democratic nominee can hold the Democratic base together. With Kinky Friedman in the race, that may be tougher than it appears.

UPDATE: I should note that Perry Dorrell has his own analysis, which I obviously don't agree with, for the reasons I delineated.

Posted by Evan @ 01/03/06 05:23 PM | Comments (0)

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