Rick Perry vs World

03 January 2006

Campaign announcements

1. Chris Bell announced former Rep. Max Sandlin's endorsement.

2. Rick Perry announced his announcement tour next week, from the 10th through 12th.

Posted by Evan @ 01/03/06 05:22 PM | Comments (0)

Thought

Y'know, I originally named this blog "Rick Perry vs the World" because there were lots of rumors about prospective primary challengers.

Now we may have one of the largest (THE largest?) general gubernatorial elections in Texas history. So I guess the name is still apt.

Posted by Evan @ 01/03/06 02:44 PM | Comments (0)

Stinson's SAEN editorial

Roddy Stinson's op-ed in the San Antonio Express News:

However, when a Pulitzer Prize-winning metropolitan newspaper begins to take Friedman seriously, somebody has to spotlight the lunacy before it gains momentum and embarrasses the journalism profession permanently.

The only "serious" point that can be made about candidate Kinky is that he has become the poster child for the crippled Texas Democratic Party.

The most significant number in the Zogby poll wasn't Perry's 42 percent, but the measly 25 percent garnered by the Democrats' leading candidate, Chris Bell.

Whom did other Democrats or Democrat-leaning independents select?

Here's a clue:

Four years ago, in the state's top three races — governor, lieutenant governor, U.S. senator — the Democratic candidates received, respectively, 40 percent, 46 percent and 43 percent of the votes cast.

If you take 46 percent (the number of voters willing to vote Democratic in at least one statewide race) and subtract 25 percent (Bell's support), you get 21 percent ... Friedman's poll number.

Coincidence?

Hardly.

I disagree with Stinson: Iactually think that there is a way for Friedman to come close to beating Rick Perry, but I'm generally not in the business of giving away too much free advice. I think he is a serious candidate, and has potential although I probably didn't make that clear in my analysis (probably because I don't see it as likely right now, given the strategy their campaign appears to be following).

However, I do agree with Stinson that right now Friedman is more likely to draw from Democrats than Republicans, though I think he's overstating the case.

Posted by Evan @ 01/03/06 02:42 PM | Comments (1)

Random observation

The Texas blogosphere did an excellent job covering the filing deadlines yesterday. The usual suspects were to blame. In particular, Chris Elam, BOR, Kuffner, and Greg.

Posted by Evan @ 01/03/06 12:54 PM | Comments (0)

The prognosticators

As promised in the last post, here is a little roundup of prognosications.

1. Selby -- Statesman:

Among Democratic hopefuls, former U.S. Rep. Chris Bell said through a spokesman, "In this crowd, it's going to be pretty obvious that Chris Bell is the only candidate offering new ideas about how to get Texas headed in the right direction."

Another Democratic candidate, former Texas Supreme Court Justice Bob Gammage of Llano, called Strayhorn's decision bad news for Perry and great news for Texas.

"This guarantees that (Perry) will have two strong opponents shedding light on his shortcomings all the way to November," he said.

2. Chron -- Ratcliffe and Robison:

The two top Democrats in the race — Chris Bell and Bob Gammage — praised Strayhorn's decision as a positive step for Texas and their own campaigns.

"The current Republican leadership has turned its back on the needs of our families and children," said Gammage. "Strayhorn's defection is just the beginning of an exodus of thinking and caring Republicans from the ranks of a badly served GOP."

Bell spokesman Jason Stanford said having two independents in the race against Perry will help a Democrat like Bell.

"All Chris Bell has to do to win is get Democrats to vote for a Democrat," Stanford said.

3. Hoppe and Slater in the DMN:

Perry aides dismissed it as the desperate stunt of a flailing candidate.

By running as an independent, Mrs. Strayhorn avoids an almost certain loss to Mr. Perry in the March 7 GOP primary. Her aides hope that the more moderate general-election voters in November will be receptive to her cross-party appeal.

"Otherwise, she's dead right after the Republican primary. Now she lives on to fight another day," said Bruce Buchanan, a political scientist at the University of Texas. "This is the only way she can stay alive, and she's putting the best face on it."

Democratic consultant Chuck McDonald said the decision, announced just hours before the deadline for candidates to file to run in party primaries, presents Mr. Perry with both good news and bad.

"The good news is this is an admission by her that she can't beat him," he said. "But it also means he's going to have Carole Strayhorn bashing him over the head until November."

...

"Obviously, the present leadership has had enough chances to do that and have failed," said Dallas lawyer Michael Boone, a Republican who supports Mrs. Strayhorn. "I believe she will bring new light on this issue."

GOP consultant Bill Miller said anything can happen over time, but barring the catastrophic, Mr. Perry appears unbeatable.

"For him, he's in that enviable position where all he has to do is not make mistakes, not lose the race. It's his race, right now, to win," Mr. Miller said.

Republicans are ignoring a rising exasperation with politics as usual, pocked by scandal and corruption, said Mike Lavigne, a Democratic public relations consultant.

"To beat Rick Perry, you need the perfect storm of voter outrage," he said. "But this is politics. No storm is too far off."

He said the Democratic contender will point to "corruption, corruption, corruption," including the money laundering indictment of former U.S. House Majority Leader Tom DeLay and a trip to the Bahamas Mr. Perry took last year with top donors.

Criticism was swift from the Texas Republican Party. State GOP Chairman Tina Benkiser issued a statement dismissing "Carole's one-night stand with Republicans" and removed her photograph from the wall at state GOP headquarters.

Mrs. Strayhorn switched from the Democratic Party to the GOP in 1985. Mr. Perry, who also began his political career as a Democrat, became a Republican in 1989.

George Strake, former chairman of the Texas Republican Party, echoed a common GOP refrain that Mrs. Strayhorn was a political opportunist who had "abandoned the principles" of the party.

...

Spokesmen for both Democrats said Mrs. Strayhorn's decision helps their campaigns.

Spokesman Jason Stanford said Mr. Bell "looks pretty good in a four-way race that includes a flawed and vulnerable incumbent and two extra campaigns trying to sack the castle."

Mr. Gammage said: "This guarantees that Rick Perry will have two strong opponents shedding light on his shortcomings all the way to November."

Mr. Friedman's campaign director, Dean Barkley, said it would be up to voters to decide who is the true independent: "Kinky Friedman, who has never been a Democrat or a Republican, or Carole, who has been both."

4. News 8 Austin:

“Rather than spend money trying to drive up turnout [in the primary], it makes more sense for her to deliver a message to Republican voters,” political analyst Harvey Kronberg said.

Perry does have considerable strength among Republican primary voters.

"If you look at polling out there, the governor does much better among traditional Republican primary voters than he does among general population voters," Kronberg said.

Posted by Evan @ 01/03/06 09:53 AM | Comments (0)

A bunch of different links on Strayhorn's indie announcement

Let's survey a few randomly selected (by the computers at googlenews) articles to see the different leads about Carole Strayhorn running as an independent. I'll also quote any noteworth paragraphs.

1. NYT:

TEXAS: CONTENDER FOR GOVERNOR QUITS G.O.P. Comptroller Carole Keeton Strayhorn turned her back on the Republican Party and announced that she would run for governor as an independent. The move allows her to avoid a potentially ugly primary battle against Gov. Rick Perry. Ms. Strayhorn has been a harsh critic of Mr. Perry over the past few years. "I am a Republican," she said. "But I know we must set partisan politics aside and do what's best for Texas. That is why I am running for governor as a Texas independent." If elected, Ms. Strayhorn would be the first independent Texas governor since Sam Houston nearly 150 years ago. (AP)

2. RG Ratcliffe and Clay Robison in the Houston Chron:

Comptroller Carole Keeton Strayhorn, in either a bold stroke or a huge long shot, stepped away from the Republican primary Monday to challenge Gov. Rick Perry as an independent candidate.

...

Late Monday, a silver nail marked the spot on the wall of the Republican Party of Texas headquarters where Strayhorn's photograph had hung hours before, along with those of other GOP officeholders.

3. Wayne Slater and Christy Hoppe in Dallas Morning News:

Carole Keeton Strayhorn abandoned the Republican primary on Monday, saying she will challenge Gov. Rick Perry as an independent who can mend "a culture of political division" in Austin.

4. Selby in the Statesman:

Betting her political future against Texas history, Carole Keeton Strayhorn confirmed Monday that she's running as an independent for governor, though the former Democrat didn't sever her Republican affiliation

5. News8 Austin:

Comptroller and gubernatorial hopeful Carole Keeton Strayhorn turned her back on the Republican party today, announcing she'll seek the state's top job as an Independent candidate.

Comparing leads is fun.

Next post will compare the prognostications from those different articles.

Posted by Evan @ 01/03/06 09:38 AM | Comments (0)

02 January 2006

Big news ahead...

...and not in the gubernatorial race.

The Rick Perry vs. the World Media Empire, Inc. may be looking to expand.

Details to follow.

Posted by Evan @ 01/02/06 04:16 PM | Comments (0)

Independent!

We have an answer to the burning question of the day. Carole Keeton Strayhorn is running for governor as an independent.

This isn't a surprise. Given how carefully her campaign has been parsing its words, (eg. "She's a Republican. She's running for governor.") there wasn't much else that would have made sense.

But...wow. During this election cycle, we're going to have two credible candidates out there fighting for signatures on their petitions. All the sudden, what was going to be a blockbuster GOP primary is now going to be a total dud. Now the Democrats are going to have a more exciting primary.

Instead we'll have an interesting period where everyone holds their breath and see whether Kinky Friedman and Carole Strayhorn can get on the ballot.

Posted by Evan @ 01/02/06 02:50 PM | Comments (1)

Perry is going on the air

Governor Rick Perry has his first TV ad buy up. The AP:

The ad will debut just hours after Comptroller Carole Keeton Strayhorn announces whether she will challenge Perry in the March Republican primary or run for the office as an independent.

Either way, she's sure to criticize Perry, as she has been doing for months

The governor will try to blunt those barbs by touting job creation, lawsuit reform, and increasing public school standards in the commercial, which opens with a field of bluebonnets, a mountainscape and a cattle drive before panning to Perry on the porch of the Governor's Mansion.

"Our people are compassionate, our visions bold, our values strong. The best is yet to come," Perry says in the ad, which also will run during Wednesday's Rose Bowl, when Texas will take on Southern California for the college football national championship. "I'm proud of Texas. How 'bout you?"

Kinda reminiscent of Ronald Reagan's 84 re-elect: It's Morning in America.

Posted by Evan @ 01/02/06 10:28 AM | Comments (0)

Inside the mind of Carole Keeton Strayhorn

Today Comptroller Carole Keeton Strayhorn will tell us what she is running for.

How do we know that? Because today is the filing deadline.

She has apparently reserved the steps of the capitol for 3pm today, though surely word will leak out in the next few hours exactly what Strayhorn has decided.

Incidentally, I saw my first Strayhorn bumper sticker this morning.

The usual rules apply: if Strayhorn decides to go independent, she'd have to gather 45,500 signatures from registered non-primary voters in the 30 days after the April runoffs (60 days if there is no runoffs, but that's unlikely.) The usual going rate for petition gathering firms is about $2 a petition, but I'd expect it to be between 50-100% higher given the shortened time frame (also, usually campaigns try to collect significantly more than the minimum, in case of disqualification), especially if both Kinky Friedman and Carole Strayhorn are trying to get on the ballot.

The rumor mills are running overtime with the gossip of what Strayhorn will do. Right now, the gossipers seem to think Strayhorn is going independent, but we will know soon. The Strayhorn campaign has steadfastly refused to elaborate on its line that Strayhorn is running for governor and is a Republican.

We'll know in a few hours.

Posted by Evan @ 01/02/06 09:20 AM | Comments (0)

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