Rick Perry vs World

01 January 2006

The new Texas Monthly

Over the weekend I picked up the latest Texas Monthly (the Bum Steer Awards cover), which I recommend for SC Gwynne's article on targeting and Paul Burka's article on the governing difficulties of the GOP. Both were pretty good reads.

Most interesting fact I picked up: viewers of Will and Grace lean decidedly Republican.

Posted by Evan @ 01/01/06 10:37 PM | Comments (0)

29 December 2005

The Strayhorn campaign ought be careful

Rebecca Chapa's column in the San Antonio Express-News is worth a read, but what caught my eye is this:

Through a series of political missteps, Democrat-turned-Republican Carole Keeton Strayhorn is quickly proving herself to be not One Tough Grandma, but One Kooky One. The latest blunder, a phone call from one of her right-hand staffers to Democratic candidate Chris Bell asking him to bow out of the governor's race, makes the campaign look schizophrenic.

Chapa voices the conventional wisdom is shaping and is starting to repeated by politicos and journalists alike.

See this quote from relatively disinterested Chris Bell spokesman Jason Stanford:

"Luis and I talk every once in awhile, trying to figure out what in God's name (Strayhorn) is going to do, and we've learned through observation that applying logic is an ineffective means of analyzing her," Stanford said. "He and I have a gentlemen's agreement to campaign aboveboard and do whatever we can to beat each other's boss."

Now it could be argued that Democrats would rather face Perry than Strayhorn, but I think it's more likely that Stanford was simply telling the truth. What Stanford says is what I hear from different people.

Now, as I've pointed out before, Strayhorn has quite a bit of cash on hand which she can use to take her message directly to the people.

The problem is that paid media is most effective when it dovetails with what people hear in free media. If the newspapers are saying something different than your paid advertising, then it muddles Strayhorn's message on tv and radio commercials.

If I were the Strayhorn campaign, I'd be concerned about this. As for Perry's campaign, I believe they planned to make this argument.

Posted by Evan @ 12/29/05 06:18 AM | Comments (1)

Adios mofo style quick links

1. ABC 13 Houston reported on Friedman and money:

But in between puffs of smoke on a Cuban cigar, he admits there is nothing funny about the money it will take to win.

"We estimate that once we're on the ballot, we estimate we need six or seven million dollars at that point to really be competitive," said Friedman.

He is off to a good start, estimating that when he files his next campaign report, he'll have raised close to a million dollars.

2. "Kinky's campaign turns (almost) serious" headlines the Atlanta Journal-Constitution's article. There's nothing new here, but it's good reporting nonetheless.

Posted by Evan @ 12/29/05 06:01 AM | Comments (0)

28 December 2005

2005 Retrospective

Gardner Selby recaps all the surprising events of the political year. My favorite:

That the 2006 Democratic gubernatorial primary, with three expected candidates, might prove spicier than the Republican fray, pending Strayhorn's decision on whether to run as an R . . .

TWO exciting primaries for me to cover.

Posted by Evan @ 12/28/05 11:32 PM | Comments (0)

26 December 2005

Sometimes, I don't like to title my posts.

AP, running all over the state

For the first time since Republicans claimed all statewide offices in 1998, the party faces the possibility of a big-name GOP primary showdown next year.

The March 7 primary for Texas governor will likely pit Comptroller Carole Keeton Strayhorn, a self-described "tough grandma," against her longtime foil and incumbent Rick Perry.

"I've never been the darling of the insiders. I run with the people," Strayhorn said. "Right after the new year, buckle your seat belt and hang on."

This month Strayhorn denied speculation she might consider a run as an independent, potentially postponing a contest with Perry until the November general election. She hasn't officially filed her candidacy papers yet, but she's expected to make the Jan. 2 deadline.

Perry, meanwhile, said he's only talking about his own Republican campaign.

"I know which party I'm for and which party I'm going to run. I made that decision a decade ago. I've got other very important things to spend my time on," said Perry, who switched from the Democratic Party before his run for agriculture commissioner in 1990.

If elected to another four-year term, Perry could hold the governor's office for 10 years, making him the longest-serving governor in Texas history. He was lieutenant governor under then-Gov. George W. Bush and assumed the state's top job when Bush was elected president in 2000. Two years later, Perry was elected to his first full term as governor.

...

"Perry has shown that he gives no quarter in political races. None should be expected," said consultant Bill Miller, whose company's political committee has donated to Perry's campaign.

Miller predicted a hard-hitting contest if Strayhorn makes good on her promise to run. "They're both going to go for the jugular," he said.

Both camps began shooting insults at each other early in the year. Strayhorn called Perry a "do-nothin' drugstore cowboy" who hasn't shown leadership on children's issues or school property tax relief. Perry's campaign questioned Strayhorn's ethics and accused her of using her state office for political gain.

Perry and Strayhorn are also veteran campaigners. Perry has never lost a race. Strayhorn lost a run for Congress in 1986 after she switched to the GOP from the Democratic party, and she lost a race for Railroad Commission in 1992. But she was later elected to the commission, then went on to become Texas' first woman comptroller. She was known at the time by the last name Rylander, before she remarried.

Perry's aides portray him as the real conservative. They cast Strayhorn as a pseudo-Republican whose support comes from Democrats and trial lawyers.

"I think the primary voters will see right through that," Perry spokesman Robert Black said. "Republican primary voters need to know if trial lawyers have picked a candidate in the Republican primary and who that candidate is."

Strayhorn's camp says it wants to attract more than the usual 600,000 people who typically vote in a Texas Republican primary.

"Our game plan is to turn the Republican primary in 2006 into the general election," said Mark Sanders, Strayhorn's spokesman. "We want everyone who wants to have a say in the future of this state. In order to do that, they need to vote in the March Republican primary."

As 2005 ended, Strayhorn and Perry were busy collecting campaign cash. At the end of the latest campaign reporting period, June 30, Perry had $8.8 million in cash on hand, and Strayhorn had $7 million.

They won't have to report their contributions for the second half of the year until mid-January, but each undoubtedly added millions more dollars.

It's widely believed Perry would outspend Strayhorn, who said she plans to counter Perry's power by debating key issues, bringing together supporters of all political stripes.

"I am looking forward to the challenge," she said.

An admitted game plan to turn the Republican primary into the general election.... interesting. However, I don't think that today's Texas is the same as the Texas of the 1960's, so that's a bit of a tall order.

The filing deadline is January 2nd. Other important dates:

December 31 -- End of campaign finance period. Last day to contribute for upcoming report.
January 2 -- Filing deadline for the Republican and Democratic primaries
January 17th -- Campaign finance filing deadline for state races
January 31 -- Campaign finance filing deadline for federal races

Posted by Evan @ 12/26/05 08:34 AM | Comments (0)

25 December 2005

Tina Benkiser, Rick Perry, etc

FWST:

When Gov. Rick Perry filed for re-election during a pep rally at the state Republican headquarters in Austin last week, some reporters questioned whether GOP Chairwoman Tina Benkiser had abandoned the tradition of remaining neutral in contested races during the primary season.

After all, Benkiser was standing alongside the governor - and his prominently displayed campaign placards - applauding ebulliently as Perry ticked off the reasons that voters should return him to office next year. But the chairwoman insisted that there was no need for neutrality because Perry was the only one entered in the Republican race for governor.

Expected challenger Carole Keeton Strayhorn, the state's comptroller, has not yet plunked down her filing fee for the March 7 primary.
"Actually, we only have one declared gubernatorial candidate," Benkiser told reporters. "We are not aware of anyone else who'll be running on the primary ticket at this time."

Perhaps she should have checked her party's official Web site before making that pronouncement. She would have noticed that Larry Kilgore, who in 2004 unsuccessfully challenged state Rep. Toby Goodman of Arlington in the GOP primary, entered the governor's race Dec. 5.

Can you tell that Benkiser is facing her own re-election campaign? I believe that Gina Parker has announced another challenge to Benkiser, and former Dallas GOP chairman Nate Crain is also expected to run.

Posted by Evan @ 12/25/05 08:51 PM | Comments (0)

24 December 2005

Biographical information for the lesser-known candidates

Brenda Allums -- Kilgore News Herald:

Alvarado is a native of Orange and is currently a middle school assistant principal in the Fort Worth Independent School District. He received a bachelor of science degree in business and management from the University of Maryland. He obtained a master of public administration from Troy State University. Alvarado received his teacher administrator certifications from the University of Texas at Arlington.

He has taught Social Studies at Trimble Technical High School in the Fort Worth Independent School District since 1994. He is retired from the armed services.

Republican Kilgore was born in Amarillo in 1964. He has been involved with politics since 1988. He believes that God's word, the Bible, is the foundation for all law.

Larry and his wife Valerie have been married 16 years and have three children ages. They enjoy camping, canoeing, playing games, taking vacations and serving in their church.

During his service with the United States Air Force in 1984-1988, he served in Azores, Portugal and at NORAD in Colorado. His training in the Air Force gave him the necessary background to enter in the telecommunications industry where he has worked for 18 years.

"The most important decision in all my life occurred when I was five." he said. "I asked Jesus to save me from hell. My family and Sunday school teachers had told me the fate of those who reject Christ. Heaven sounded pretty cool too. I did not realize the tremendous impact following Christ would have on my life here on Earth."

Smith, who is also running in the Republican Primary is from Eastland but now resides in Austin. He received a BA degree from University of Texas at Austin in 1973. He worked as auditor/accountant in what used to be the Texas Department of Public Welfare from 1973-1977.

Smith served in the US navy from 1979-1983 and has been employed in private security since 1983.

"I am a very conservative candidate for the office of Governor of Texas," Smith said. "For those of you in my generation and older, I think you know the importance of leadership."

Werner announced his candidacy during the Libertarian Party of Texas "Weekend for Winners" campaign seminar.

Werner is a software analyst from Austin and he received 1.7 percent of the vote in a race against Democratic Congressman Lloyd Doggett last year.

There are also bios of Bell and Gammage.

Posted by Evan @ 12/24/05 09:18 PM | Comments (0)

SurveyUSA approval tracking poll

SurveyUSA released its latest tracking poll of Rick Perry's approval rating.

Their latest shows Perry at 46 approval, 48% disapproval. The poll is of 600 adults, +/- 4.1%. A graph of this monthly survey is here.

Surprisingly, Perry's overall approval is slightly higher among females than males. Also very surprisingly, his approval ratio is very similar between Anglos, Latinos, and African-Americans.

One thing to keep in mind: this poll is of adults. Not registered voters, not likely voters. I don't have any hard numbers, but it seems that Survey USA usually understates Perry's support by a bit compared to other polls, and it is probably because of this fact.

Posted by Evan @ 12/24/05 09:11 PM | Comments (0)

22 December 2005

Is Strayhorn's aide searching for Combs opponent?

This story gets more bizarre by the day. Today, the San Antonio Express News reports that Strayhorn spokesman Mark Sanders has called Lyle Larson to try to get him to run for comptroller, just like he called Chris Bell:

The story sounded familiar to Bexar County Commissioner Lyle Larson.

A top aide to Republican gubernatorial hopeful Carole Keeton Strayhorn calls the wife of Democratic hopeful Chris Bell last week trying to get Bell to abandon his bid for governor and jump into the state comptroller's race.

During the exchange, reported by the Austin American-Statesman on Wednesday, Strayhorn spokesman Mark Sanders tells Alison Bell that "there would be support" for Bell should he run for comptroller.

Larson, who heard about the story Wednesday morning from Republican strategist Frank Guerra, said the same thing happened to him about six weeks ago.

"This guy calls and says he's Mark Sanders and that he works closely with Carole Strayhorn," Larson recalled. "He tells me there's a large group of people who would like to find someone else to run for comptroller against Susan Combs."

As an enticement, Larson said, Sanders claimed the group could raise $3.5 million for his campaign and facilitate a meeting with a top staffer in the comptroller's office to give Larson a crash course in the ins and outs of the statewide post.

"I thought it was preposterous that somebody could offer $3.5 million in contributions to a person they've never met," Larson said.

Larson, who is publicly supporting Combs, a Republican, for comptroller, said he never bothered to call Sanders back because he's "never been interested in comptroller."

Sanders, who could not be reached for comment Wednesday, told the American-Statesman he did not call the Bells on behalf of the Strayhorn campaign. Instead, he said, he wanted to advise his longtime friends that they could not win the governor's race.

Robert Black, a spokesman to GOP Gov. Rick Perry, Strayhorn's chief rival, said he doesn't believe Sanders acted without Strayhorn's blessing.

A little background, if you're new to the story. First, Jason Embry first broke the story that Mark Sanders had called Allison Bell and told her that Chris Bell should run for comptroller instread of governor. Sanders claimed to be acting on his own, and in Bell's self-interest, because he had known Allison Bell for a long time. Now Sanders is reportedly calling a Republican, seeing if he'll challenge Combs in the primary.

Go back to January 24th in my archives, and you'll find:

Ag Commisioner Susan Combs has been saying that Strayhorn told her she could run for Comptroller. Today, however, Strayhorn spokesman said:

The people of Texas are certainly asking her (Strayhorn) to run for Governor and she is listening. But the Comptroller never told Commissioner Combs she is not running for Comptroller again. And Commissioner Combs knows it.

When it became apparent that Strayhorn was going to run for a higher office, Agricultural Commissioner Susan Combs claimed that Comptroller Strayhorn had given her permission to run for Comptroller. But Strayhorn clearly didn't like the way Combs maneuvered and declared so early that she was running for Comptroller.

Posted by Evan @ 12/22/05 05:15 PM | Comments (0)

21 December 2005

More on the Sanders phone call

Couple new facts out of the Sanders story from Moritz at FWST:

"I guess I must have complicated someone's scenario, but I'm in this race to stay." said Bell, who was a Houston City Council member before serving in Congress from 2003 to last January.

...

"I made a friendly phone call, as I do from time to time, and said Chris is not going to win this. No Democrat is," Sanders said. "I told her that he'd have more support for comptroller."

Bell's quote seems to indicate (though he was perhaps joking) that he thinks that Strayhorn wants him out of the campaign for strategic reasons.

Sanders' quote certainly seems to indicate that Strayhorn isn't going to switch. I can't see why he'd say that if a true party switch was at all under consideration.

Posted by Evan @ 12/21/05 09:22 PM | Comments (1)

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