Rick Perry vs World

28 February 2006

Money

Republican incumbent Rick Perry has 100 times more money on hand for the governor's race than his richest Democratic opponent, new campaign finances reports show.

With the Republican and Democrat primaries just two weeks away, Perry has $9.4 million in cash, while Democrat Chris Bell has $90,868.90 and Democrat Bob Gammage $23,648, according to campaign finance reports due Monday. The most recent disclosures list cash on hand, as well as contributions and expenditures between Jan. 27 and Saturday.

Two other major candidates in the gubernatorial race, independents Kinky Friedman and Carole Keeton Strayhorn, did not have to report contributions because they are not running in the March 7 primaries.

Perry's report shows that his campaign raised $923,369 in the past 30 days and spent $407,579. By contrast, Bell raised $259,569 and spent $305,672, and Gammage raised $58,209 and spent $70,996.

The AP looks at the story from the angle of Bell getting money from trial lawyers:

Generous giving by trial lawyers helped boost gubernatorial candidate Chris Bell's fundraising during the past month as he approaches the Democratic primary election.

Bell, a former U.S. Rep. from Houston, raised $260,000 from Jan. 27 through Saturday, according to a Monday campaign filing with the Texas Ethics Commission. That's more than half the total of $509,000 he raised in 2005.

...

Of the amount Bell raised last month, nearly $110,000 came from lawyers. Major donors included Corpus Christi lawyer Mikal C. Watts, whose political action committee gave $25,000, and Houston lawyer Tom Pirtle, who also donated $25,000.

Trial lawyer money isn't an unmitigated good, of course. But one of the most interesting stories is that the trial lawyers who contribute big money to Democrats in the state...haven't given money. Watching whether they start to give more money to the Democratic nominee will be an interesting story for March and April.

Posted by Evan @ 02/28/06 02:36 PM | Comments (0)

27 February 2006

Strayhorn threatening to sue Secretary of State

AP:

The gubernatorial campaign of State Comptroller Carole Keeton Strayhorn wants to start collecting signatures as soon as the polls close March 7.

But Secretary of State Roger Williams said the campaign must wait until the day after the primary to collect signatures.

Williams' office has also said it will not accept small groups of signatures turned in before the deadline. That has representatives of the campaign accusing the secretary of state of obstructing efforts to get on the ballot.

Never a dull moment.

Posted by Evan @ 02/27/06 10:24 PM | Comments (0)

DMN covers ethics kerfuffle in Dem primary

A few days ago, I wondered whether Gammage's ethics attack on Bell would get any coverage. To date, I've only seen an article in the Dallas:

"You can't have it both ways, you can't say you support strong ethics requirements and then not follow the requirements yourself," said Mr. Gammage, a former Texas Supreme Court justice.

A spokesman said Mr. Bell, a former Houston congressman, is sorry he missed the Feb. 13 deadline for filing a personal financial statement with the Texas Ethics Commission.

"This is an oversight, and it's been corrected," said Bell campaign spokesman Jason Stanford. He said staff members forgot about the deadline, though he said Mr. Bell wasn't blaming others.

"Obviously, it was his own responsibility," Mr. Stanford said. "He's apologized."

The statement filed Friday showed a smattering of retirement investments and debts for Mr. Bell, a lawyer, and his wife, Alison, and no unusual transactions.

Mr. Stanford said that as a Houston City Council member, Mr. Bell wrote strong ethics laws. He dismissed Mr. Gammage's criticism as "the death rattle of a flailing and desperate campaign."

On Wednesday, the Gammage campaign seized on Mr. Bell's missing the deadline in a statement that mocked an ethics speech Mr. Bell gave in Austin last fall. "There is an unofficial 'don't mess with ethics' policy around here," Mr. Bell said then.

The Gammage statement chortled: "Why hasn't Mr. 'Don't Mess with Texas Ethics' filed his personal financial statement? ... Just what does he have to hide?"

Posted by Evan @ 02/27/06 07:56 PM | Comments (0)

Shorts

1. Corrie MacLaggan in the Statesman devotes an article to Hispanics lack of thrill over their options this year, especially the Democratic statewides.

2. The Midland Reporter-Telegram included a line in their endorsement of Chris Bell that I thought was pretty funny, "...both Bell and Gammage have been well-funded, something most of the Democrats can't claim."

Bell and Gammage are well-funded? Only relative to other Democrats running statewide.

3. Clay Robison's column in the Chron:

THE act was hardly convincing, but Carole Keeton Strayhorn tried the other day to perform the impossible, distinguishing between her official role as state comptroller and her political role as would-be governor.

Tried? Well, sort of. Actually, she made a feeble comment about trying, for appearance's sake more than anything.

The occasion was a news conference in one of the comptroller's official, taxpayer-owned conference rooms in which Strayhorn gave an "official" update on the "challenges facing Texas education."

4. Ratcliffe in the Houston Chronicle on the differences between Friedman and Strayhorn on voting in the primary:

Friedman is running a "Save yourself for Kinky," don't-vote-in-the-primaries campaign based on the idea that primary voters are the most involved in Texas, and therefore the ones most likely to sign an independent candidate's petition.

...

"I'm not telling anyone not to go vote," Strayhorn said, noting there are House primary races across the state in which the public education community is running candidates against low-tax and private-school voucher supporters. Strayhorn, who said she's not voting in the primary, has the backing of teacher groups.

"You can still vote in those races that are important for education, and then you can still be supporting me in the fall," Strayhorn said.

...

"Texans can do better than a governor who cannot govern, a comptroller who cannot count and a secretary of state who is not above partisan politics," said Friedman campaign manager Dean Barkley.

Posted by Evan @ 02/27/06 07:53 PM | Comments (0)

26 February 2006

Upset in SD18?

The conventional wisdom in Austin is that Rep. Glenn Hegar is a strong favorite to win the SD18 GOP primary (whoever wins the primary should win the seat) against Gary Gates.

Chris Elam (Gates' consultant) seems pretty psyched about Gates' chances right now, based on tracking polls they've run. I feel confident that they aren't rigging their polls either, since they aren't releasing them to the press. Of course, Gates has run twice against Hegar in HD28 before, and Hegar has won both times. Both races got very negative at the end, and this race looks like it'll be the same.

If Dan Patrick and Gary Gates are in the Texas Senate next year, I think it would be an interesting session indeed.

Posted by Evan @ 02/26/06 09:04 PM | Comments (0)

24 February 2006

Gammage questions Bell's ethics; Bell camp responds

Bob Gammage issued this press release on Chris Bell's ethics:

Democratic Candidate for Governor Chris Bell, who has made "Don't mess with Texas ethics" the cornerstone of his entire campaign, is currently in violation of Texas election law. Though required by Texas law to file by February 13th, Bell has failed to file his personal finance statement with the Texas Ethics Commission. Just what does he have to hide?

"Maybe this is the bold ethics reform Chris Bell is talking about - just ignore the law," Gammage Communications Director Jeremy Warren said. "Mr. Bell should learn to follow the current law before he proposes any new ones."

Bell, who has pledged to "put real teeth in the enforcement [of] our ethics laws," has been bitten by failure to file mandatory paperwork in the past. According to the Houston Chronicle, in 2001, "Bell temporarily lost his law license after he failed to pay his State Bar of Texas dues." (Houston Chronicle, October 26, 2001) Bell, who received three notices from the State Bar, blamed an administrative error for the suspension of his law license for failure to pay his bar dues.

Bell's law license suspension, and his refusal to disclose his income tax returns, became issues in his Houston campaigns. The Houston Chronicle later speculated that Bell didn't want to disclose his tax returns because they would show an IRS lien for failing to pay some $13,000 in back taxes. (Source: Houston Chronicle, September 10, 2001)

In response, the Bell campaign issued a letter from Richard Morrison:

I've had enough. I'm mad as hell, and I'm not going to take it anymore. Chris Bell is a good Texas Democrat, and anyone who says different crosses the line.

The noise emanating from the Gammage campaign has reached a poisonous level that ill-serves our party and insults a man whom I consider a kindred spirit and a real Texas hero. To question a voting record is one thing, but to question Chris Bell's Democratic credentials smacks of petty political desperation.

Bob Gammage's latest attack attempts to question Chris Bell's commitment to ethics reform. The last man to question Chris Bell's commitment to ethics reform was Tom DeLay, and we see how well that worked out for him. And as a longtime Houston-area resident, I remember when Chris Bell first championed--and passed--ethics reform that closed soft-money loopholes, required lobbyists to register, and imposed a revolving door ban. Does Bob Gammage really want to go there?

The failure to file on time -- while a pretty minor thing -- doesn't look good when you're running a campaign based around ethics. It goes to the heart of Bell's message as a candidate. I've never really been a fan of ethics campaigns, because they invite gotcha politics in return.

It's clearly an attack on Bell though, and the sort of thing Gammage promised not to do when he got into the race. But is the attack even getting enough attention to make a difference for Gammage or backfire on him?

Posted by Evan @ 02/24/06 12:04 AM | Comments (4)

22 February 2006

Polls on the Democratic primary are worthless; who's ahead?

Who is ahead in the Democratic primary? I think it's hard to say, and I don't think that any of the media polls that we've seen can be trusted with any degree of confidence.

Polls:

1. Large margin of error.
I think the recent DMN poll only had 350 "likely" primary voters. We don't know what their screen was, but my guess is that they just asked all of their 1500 overall respondents whether they were likely to vote in the primary.

This is a very weak screen, a la the recent Chronicle poll on district 22.

2. People not paying close enough attention.
Neither Chris Bell or Bob Gammage has raised enough money to run television ads. There has been some media coverage, but it hasn't exactly been wall-to-wall. The existence of several polls showing the Democrat running in 3rd or 4th place (though I remain somewhat skeptical, because I think the Democratic line will hold a solid amount of straight-ticketers and yellow dogs).

3. Historically inaccurate.
Think back to the last few high-profile Democratic primaries: 2002 gubernatorial, 2002 Senate, and 1998 Senate. The 2002 gubernatorial was very high-profile. Tony Sanchez had been getting lots of media coverage, and spent many millions, while Dan Morales jumped into the race at the last minute (and was rumored to have done so as a legal strategy to avoid indictment. He was lated indicted and convicted). As I recall, there was no doubt that Sanchez would be the nominee.

But in the closer races, the 1996 and 2002 Senate primaries, the polls failed to predict the winner. If I recall correctly, every poll had either Ken Bensten or Ron Kirk winning the primary. It ended up that Victor Morales came edged out Kirk for first (with Bentsen a few points behind the two), though Kirk later beat Morales in the runoff.

The same was true in 1996, when first-time candidate Morales shocked folks by beating out two incumbent Congressman who raised much more money than Morales. The polls -- again this is only as I recall, but I'm pretty confident -- didn't have Morales ahead. It was a thorough surprise

4. Do they really capture the geographics of the electorate?
I'm skeptical. Given the 96 and 02 primaries, plus the nature of what areas will have high turnout, it seems that the polls for Democratic primaries tend to understate the level of Hispanic and South Texas turnout. Given the lack of a good screen on the primary numbers, I think it's probably likely that the polls do not capture who Democratic primary voters will be.

I don't think any of the polls on the Democrats' primary can be said to have much predictive power.

EDIT: There's also the fact that in the DMN poll 60% of Dem primary voters are undecided. I do believe this is reasonable.

So who is ahead?
Standard caveat, that I've written many times here: I'm not a Democrat; I don't claim to have special knowledge of their primary.

But, in a low-profile race, it seems to me that newspaper endorsements carry a special weight. So far, Chris Bell has rounded up the vast majority of newspaper endorsements and prominent Democrat officeholders. See Phillip Martin's roundup of endorsements.

Bell has also raised more money, campaigned all over the state for over a year, and been in politics more recently than Gammage.

So, all in all, one would have to assume that Bell is the likely victor. By any standard measure, he seems to be ahead.

UPDATE: To see a counter-argument, check this from RedStateDem in the comments.

Posted by Evan @ 02/22/06 11:15 PM | Comments (2)

Strayhorn hints she voted for a Democrat?

Bud Kennedy -- Fort Worth Star-Telegram. Very, very interesting:

[. . .] Strayhorn opened her speech Saturday by saying "how proud we are" of state Rep.-elect Donna Howard, a Democrat and former suburban school trustee who won an upset victory last week in Austin against a Republican backed by some of Perry's top donors.

"I'm staying away from all party politics," Strayhorn said afterward. "I voted for the most qualified candidate.

"I think this state is hungry for independent leadership. People are sick of all the politics. Texans want somebody who can get the job done."

Fascinating. Tacking left?

Posted by Evan @ 02/22/06 08:12 AM | Comments (3)

Strayhorn and Perry arguing over funding.

Jane Elliott/Clay Robison in the Chron:

Gov. Rick Perry said Tuesday that Texans can be proud of student educational gains, but his chief rival, Comptroller Carole Keeton Strayhorn, countered that residents should be ashamed of the state's record on school funding and achievement.

"No other state in America can measure up to the progress Texas has made in improving education," Perry said in a speech to business and education leaders.

"Fancy education proposals packaged in lofty titles won't fool the people of Texas. It is a sham to preach excellence and deliver mediocrity," Strayhorn said at a news conference shortly after Perry's speech.

She cited statistics indicating Texas trails most states in several key education indicators, including per pupil spending, teacher pay, high school graduation rate and college entrance scores.

But Perry said scores on national assessments have gone up in every age group, ethnicity and subject area. More students are taking advanced math courses here and the state spends the most on pre-K education, he said.

Texas is the first state to make a college prep curriculum the standard in high school, to provide study guides for struggling students and to tailor individualized graduation plans for students at risk of dropping out, Perry added.

Both state officials were speaking truthfully, with each using statistics to support their perspective. Perry is running for re-election in the March 7 GOP primary, while Strayhorn, a Republican, is running for governor as an independent.

Perry focused on documented gains in student scores on state and national tests over the past seven years and targeted programs passed by the Legislature. Strayhorn honed in on funding issues, where Texas falls below the national average for per-student spending and teacher salaries.

She was specific in saying that Texas ranks low in Scholastic Aptitude Test scores and high school graduation rates. Perry merely alluded to these issues when he said that the state is "by no means near the summit" of education excellence.

Although the article alludes otherwise, I'm pretty sure Strayhorn and Perry disagreed over whether per student increased or dropped in 2005.

Posted by Evan @ 02/22/06 08:08 AM | Comments (0)

21 February 2006

Early voting begins today

Tuesday the 21st is the beginning of early voting.

Posted by Evan @ 02/21/06 11:57 AM | Comments (0)

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