Rick Perry vs World

19 February 2006

Dallas Morning News poll numbers

Blum & Welprin Associates; conducted 2/9-15; 1482 REGISTERED voters. MoE 3=/-
Dem subsample: 301 LIKELY Dem primary voters; MoE 5.5%.

General Election Matchups
Perry 36%
Bell 19
Strayhorn 16
Friedman 10
Undec/Oth 19

Perry 36%
Gammage 17
Strayhorn 17
Friedman 10
Undec/Oth 19

Fav/Unfav
Friedman 20%/15%
Bell 12 / 5
Gammage 6 / 2

Dem Primary Matchup
Bell 28%
Gammage 12
Undec/Oth 60

Asked of Friedman voters
Matchup W/O Friedman
Strayhorn 34%
Bell 25
Perry 18
Undec/Oth/No Vote 23

Asked of Friedman voters
Matchup W/O Friedman
Strayhorn 36%
Gammage 20
Perry 18
Undec/Oth/No Vote 14

Perry As Gov.
Approve 47%
Disapprove 38

Strayhorn As Comptroller
Approve 53%
Disapprove 16

Perry's Most Impt Accomplishment
As Gov. (no list)
Hurricane Katrina/relief 8%
Education reform 7
Taxes/tax reform 2
Jobs/economic development 2
Highway construction 1
Border control 1
None/Oth 28

Perry's Most Impt Accomplishment
As Gov. (list provided)
Hurricane Katrina 28%
Education reform 13
Holding line on taxes 9
Highway construction 9
Jobs/econ development 7
None/Oth 22

Posted by Evan @ 02/19/06 11:25 AM | Comments (0)

New Dallas Morning News poll

The Dallas Morning News commissioned a poll. Their writeup is here.

The full results are here.

Posted by Evan @ 02/19/06 12:47 AM | Comments (2)

17 February 2006

National ticket talk: who wants to be Veep?

Long time Statesman reporter Dave McNeely writes on possible national ambitions of Texas' politicos.

Last month, Gov. Rick Perry declined to say whether he'll serve the full four-year term he's seeking this year.

"I'm interested in getting things done," Perry told reporters during a campaign fly-around in mid-January. "If I can get 'em done in six years, great and good. If I can get 'em done in eight years, great and good. If it takes me 12 years, great and good."

Presuming he wins, asked San Antonio Express-News reporter Peggy Fikac, would he serve the full term?

"I'm not saying one way or the other," Perry replied. "I'm saying that I'm focused on November of '06 and that is as far -- from (an) electoral standpoint -- that I'm comfortable discussing."

Sounds like Perry's keeping his options open to join a national ticket in 2008.

...

Perry has been making the rounds in Washington, D.C. -- ostensibly to seek federal dollars for Texas -- but also to see and be seen by national power brokers. His political consultant, after all, is David Carney of New Hampshire, which holds the first presidential primary.

Texas' current senior senator, Republican Kay Bailey Hutchison, considered running for governor against Perry to add executive experience to her appeal for a national ticket. But she decided fairly certain re-election this year, plus her Senate service and gender, would have to do, rather than face a nasty, divisive primary battle she might lose.

It may seem a long shot for Perry to get on a national ticket. But guts, hard campaigning and a lot of luck have already taken him much further than many onlookers thought possible.

I wrote about this a few months ago. My thoughts haven't changed: it's very, very improbable that Perry (or Hutchison) will be on the Republican ticket in 2008.

Posted by Evan @ 02/17/06 12:38 PM | Comments (1)

Round 'em up

1. Selby's Statesman read on the attacks over Perry's Bahamas trip two years ago to talk about school finance.

2. Lots of reviews of last night's premier of CMT's reality show series on Kinky Friedman's campaign. Here's the Chron. FWST. Meanwhile, the New York Times previewed the show. Unfortunately, I had to miss the show, so no review from me.

3. Wayne Slater talks about Kinky's voting record, or lack thereof. Friedman's voted once in the past 12 years, because he says, "I did not like my choices."

"I was for Bush in 2004," he said. "He's a good man trapped in a Republican's body."

Mr. Friedman said he supported Bill Clinton in the 1990s but didn't vote for him because he was often on tour outside the country.

"I was doing a lot of music then," he said.

He added: "And I campaigned like hell for Ann Richards [in 1994], but I don't think I voted. I should have set up absentee arrangements, but I didn't."

4. San Antonio Express News on "to vote or not to vote":

Friedman is using the catchy "Save yourself for Kinky" slogan to encourage voters not to vote in the March 7 primary election.

Anyone who votes in the primary cannot sign a petition for an independent candidate.

Strayhorn, however, is encouraging people to vote.

"We are telling voters that if you vote in the primary, you can still vote for (Strayhorn) in November in the general election," said Mark Sanders, spokesman for Strayhorn. "We still have that 9 (million) or 10 million people that can sign our petition."

Bruce Buchanan, government professor at the University of Texas at Austin, said getting signatures is expensive and the difference in the campaigns is probably because of money.

He said that Friedman is using his slogan because it might be less costly and it is an easy way for him to get votes.

Friedman's camp is also pretty upset that Secretary of State Roger Williams is encouraging people to vote and says it may take two months to validate petitions. It's understandable that they are upset, but the Sec of State generally encourages people to vote.

Posted by Evan @ 02/17/06 12:28 PM | Comments (0)

16 February 2006

Long Kinky Friedman profile

The Austin Chronicle has a long profile of Friedman. I won't try to excerpt it; it's too long.

Posted by Evan @ 02/16/06 11:57 AM | Comments (0)

Balance beams

Wayne Slater in the Dallas Morning News:

As exhibit No. 1 in her bid to unseat Gov. Rick Perry, Carole Keeton Strayhorn has blasted the governor's "failed leadership" in fixing the state's school finance system.

Mrs. Strayhorn says she would do a better job – details to come.

The comptroller has also been vocal in criticizing the Republican governor on homeowners insurance rates and protecting the border – but has not yet offered plans on what she would do differently.

There will be plenty of time to get specific, Mrs. Strayhorn says.

"By next November, the people of Texas are going to know precisely where I am on everything that's of major concern to them," Mrs. Strayhorn said in an interview.

...

"If you can make the campaign about your opponent's positions without in effect having to explain or defend your own, that's a plus," said political scientist Jerry Polinard of the University of Texas-Pan American. "But in point of fact, I don't think there's any way a challenger in her position can escape very long without having to identify what she would do in place of what's currently being done."

In announcing she would challenge the Republican governor as an independent on the November ballot, Mrs. Strayhorn said she hoped to attract both Republicans and Democrats.

Analysts said Mr. Perry's strongest appeal is to GOP loyalists and social conservatives who dominate the party. To win, Mrs. Strayhorn must win moderate voters from both parties, analysts say.

...

Mrs. Strayhorn also appears to have modified her public position on abortion. In 1996 and 1998, she supported overturning the Supreme Court's Roe vs. Wade decision, which legalized abortion, and she opposed using public money to pay for abortions, according to questionnaires she answered for Greater Austin Right to Life.

Asked whether that was still her view, she declined to respond directly.

"I believe in the sanctity of life, but I recognize and understand that there are those tough situations where heartbreaking decisions have to be made," she said. "That is my position."

More than any specific policy issue, Mrs. Strayhorn argues that the central question in the campaign is Mr. Perry's performance over the last five years. She has accused the governor of "misplaced priorities and failed leadership" and of being too cozy with special interests.

The governor and Legislature have been unable to reach agreement on a plan to lower property taxes and finance public education. The Texas Supreme Court has ruled the current system is unconstitutional and has given lawmakers until June 1 to correct the problem.

In the past, Mr. Perry has offered specific plans for a school finance overhaul and property tax relief, though his ideas, too, have changed over several legislative sessions. His ideas have included specific formulas to reduce property taxes and make up the difference by increasing the state sales tax, expanding the franchise tax to more businesses, legalizing video slot machines at racetracks and taxing adult-oriented businesses. His proposals have been rejected by the Legislature, sometimes on embarrassingly lopsided votes.

Mrs. Strayhorn has declined to offer a specific plan, although she does say she supports a $3,000 pay raise for teachers.

She has said any broader solution should start with two programs cut from her agency by the GOP leadership that identified a laundry list of cost-saving ideas to fund education and other programs.

"And right along with that, teachers and educators will be the first ones at the table. They're going to be plugged in first in a Strayhorn education plan," she said. "As this spring goes on, I will be adding to that."

Mrs. Strayhorn has been particularly critical of Mr. Perry on the issues of insurance and utility costs. A recent study found that Texas homeowners pay the highest insurance premiums in the nation.

Asked what she would do to curb rising insurance rates, Mrs. Strayhorn said it was too early to outline her plan.

On another issue where she has criticized the governor – illegal immigration – she also said she would offer specific ideas later in the campaign.

...

As for setting out specific programs on key issues, Mrs. Strayhorn said she would present details on her timetable.

"In each of these areas, you don't just lay it out today," she said. "I will be very deliberately speaking to those issues, and I can assure you the people of Texas are going to know precisely where I stand."

It will be interesting to see how Strayhorn balances this.

Posted by Evan @ 02/16/06 11:11 AM | Comments (0)

Fraticide?

It's been amazing how Republicans have managed to avoid primaries in statewide races. Although the Republican Party now thoroughly dominates statewide races -- and has for a decade -- Texas still has yet to see a real GOP primary in a high profile race. The closest we can get is probably AG races in the 90s. Part of this is undoubtedly due to Karl Rove, who exercised a good deal of influence in helping ambitious politicians decide which office to run for. To some degree, Rove still likely exercises some of that power occasionally. But he has other things to deal with right now. Yet we still won't be having a high-profile primary in 2006.

When I began this blog in December 2004, it seemed to be a 99.99% chance that 2006 would bring a GOP gubernatiorial primary. And yet, somehow it didn't happen.

But now, we have two sides warring.

Five "liberal Republicans" are being challenged with heavy funding from a Dr. Leininger-bankrolled PAC [Leininger's favorite issue is school vouchers]. Those House members? Tommy Merrit in Longview, Roy Blake in Nacogdoches, Carter Casteel in New Braunfels, Delwin Jones in Lubbock, and Charlie Geren in Fort Worth.

Meanwhile, the Texas Parent PAC wants to push for more funding for public schools. It's targeting incumbents Larry Phillips in Sherman, Education Chairman Kent Grusenddorf, and Elvira Reyna of Mesquite, as well as several open seats. The Texas Parent PAC is backed by former Lt. Guv and state Sen. Bill Ratliff, Lyndon Olson (rumored to run for guv as a Dem), and Charles Butt (whose grocery stores I love).

The major intrigue? In a way, you could say there's glimpses of a shadow battle between Rick Perry and Kay Bailey Hutchison. Perry is close to the Republican Party of Texas, which polled vulnerability in several of these Republican incumbent's districts. Meanwhile, Hutchison has appeared at a Geren fundraiser and has "endorsed other Republicans under attack from the purists."

2006 didn't bring the Battle of the Titans between Rick Perry and Hutchison. Maybe this is more like the Cold War.

Posted by Evan @ 02/16/06 12:22 AM | Comments (0)

School finance and gambling

There's no easy money for education. Except, legislators often feel like gambling is easier than others. Moritz in thw FWST:

Undaunted by a two-year string of legislative defeats, several organizations representing the gambling industry are poised to renew the fight to bring Las Vegas-style games to Texas when lawmakers are called back to Austin in the spring to overhaul the state’s school finance system.

And gambling opponents vow to wage yet another round of trench warfare against their better armed and funded foes to keep those games from operating in Texas.

...

The Texas Horsemen's Partnership, led by veteran lobbyist Reggie Bashur, said that allowing the video slots at the tracks would generate revenue leading to larger purses, which means that Texas would be better positioned to bring in top-flight thoroughbreds and more top-tier stakes races.

Agriculture Commissioner Susan Combs, now the Republican candidate for state comptroller, said the benefits would trickle down through Texas' farming and ranching industries.

Even though about a dozen bills that would allow a range of new games, from video slots to full-fledged casinos, were filed during the 2005 session, few gained tractioon.

In the Republican-dominated Legislature, a solid bloc of Democrats served notice that they would not support gambling initiatives to underwrite a new school finance system. And a smaller core group of socially conservative Republicans led by state Rep. Linda Harper Brown of Irving and Sen. Jane Nelson of Lewisville vowed to block any gambling legislation no matter what its purpose with any legislative tactic at their disposal.

Stinson, Bashur and a third entry into the gambling-legislation sweepstakes, Austin lobbyist Chris Shields of the newly formed Texas Gaming Association, predicted that a need for state revenue that doesn't require a tax increase coupled with the need to compete with neighboring states will help persuade reluctant lawmakers to support some form of their initiatives.

Officeholders don't like gambling. But often they like raising taxes or cutting spending even less. Perry has proposed slots before. Strayhorn has been of several minds on gambling, but her son says that gambling should be on the table.

I've said before on this blog that I think if gambling is to be expanded, the first option considered ought to be to legalizing poker like California did in the 70s.

And I think there is probably a significant but less than 50% chance that gambling is expanded in some way. But that's outside-MoPac speculation.

Posted by Evan @ 02/16/06 12:08 AM | Comments (0)

14 February 2006

New Rasmussen numbers; good for Strayhorn, Gammage

500 Likely voters; MoE 4.5%, pollster Scott Rasmussen; conducted February 6th.

Rick Perry 40%
Carole Strayhorn 31%
Chris Bell 13%
Kinky Friedman 9%

Rick Perry 38%
Carole Strayhorn 29%
Bob Gammage 18%
Kinky Friedman 8%

Perry 53%/45% Favorable/Unfavorable
Strayhorn 55%/31% Favorable/Unfavorable

Rasmussen's last poll was in early Jan, when he had the numbers as Perry 40%, Strayhorn 21%, Bell 14%, and Friedman 12%.

I wrote this back then, and I think it still applies generally:

They don't provide any crosstabs for free, so it's hard to dissect the poll to make sure the poll is accurate or to draw precise conclusions. Instead, we have to rely on the fact that Rasmussen has a reasonably good track record. The screen they used for likely voters could matter if voter interest in the race is high (which is possible). So let's view this poll as a general fuzzy indicator of where the race stands at this point.

My guess is that Strayhorn probably has softer support than Perry, but the numbers are certainly good news for Comptroller Strayhorn. Perry's re-election seems very likely right now, unless one candidate emerges as the de facto anti-Perry candidate. The difference between this Rasmussen poll and his poll last month is basically just that Strayhorn picked up about 10 points, almost half of which was from Friedman or the Democrat. There are only 7% undecided in this poll though, so the law of diminishing returns suggests that Strayhorn may have a much tougher time going from 30% to 40% than she did (if Rasmussen is accurate) going from 20% to 30%.

Can Strayhorn win enough Democrats to beat Perry? I'm on record as being skeptical of the idea, because I think the Democratic line will still likely be worth a good chunk of Democrats, no matter who the candidate is.

It's also good news for Bob Gammage. Who would have guessed that he'd be polling 5% above Bell in a general election matchup? Do these numbers augur a primary lead for Gammage? It's surprising to me that Gammage could be running 40% stronger than Bell (and remember the margin of error), but who knows?

But, once we have a Democratic nominee in less than three weeks, I think it's clear that the Democratic nominee has to be very wary of Strayhorn. It's unlikely that a Democrat can win any of Perry's current 40%, and there are only 7% undecided in Rasmussen's poll. So the Democratic nominee will have to train his sights on Strayhorn to have a chance to win, assuming Strayhorn is at 30% right now.

And Strayhorn? At some point does she tack more to the left to try to make sure Democrats don't vote for a Democrat?

Perry's campaign, I'm guessing, is already polling the intensity of Strayhorn's support, and the issues which can peel off a few percent here and there.

The poll seems to confirm that idea that Friedman has been hurt most of all by Strayhorn's entry into the race.

Four way races are fascinating! There's lots more that could written (and what's written could use some editing), but I have a paper due tomorrow.

QUICK UPDATE: I saw a few of the questions on Harvey's site from the poll. Rasmussen identified Friedman as "independent Richard Friedman." That's very likely to have understated Friedman's support. To date, I don't know of any journalist that has noticed this. Moreover, so far as I can tell, Friedman's campaign isn't screaming at the top of their lungs about it. If I were the Kinky campaign, I would have a press release out to every journo in the state.

I wrote about a similar issue quite a bit at DeLay vs World not too long ago. These sorts of things really annoy me. If I get a chance, you can expect to hear more about this from me tomorrow.

UPDATE 2: This assumes, of course, that Friedman will be on the ballot as "Kinky Friedman." He may not be by law; I assume he'd be on the ballot as Kinky if he chose. I'll look into this when I get a chance.

Posted by Evan @ 02/14/06 04:30 PM | Comments (5)

12 February 2006

Upcoming campaign finance report dates

February 13 -- Personal Financial Statement for candidates
February 27 -- Campaign Finance report through 2/25

In other words, tomorrow we get to pick through officeholders' and candidates' personal lives. Fun times!

Posted by Evan @ 02/12/06 10:16 PM | Comments (0)

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