Rick Perry vs World

17 March 2006

Back in town

I'm now back in town. Spent a few days with a friend in the woods of Arkansas at a friend of a friend's trailer. Lots of fishing and hunting. It was fun and interesting, but not the stereotypical Spring Break.

I'll try and catch up on some blogging tonight, hopefully before my (not at all) Irish self celebrates St. Patrick's Day.

Posted by Evan @ 03/17/06 02:35 PM | Comments (0)

12 March 2006

Out of town

I'm gonna be out of town for the next few days. Posting will resume either Wednesday night or Thursday.

Posted by Evan @ 03/12/06 10:48 PM | Comments (1)

10 March 2006

Looking for signature gathering anecdotes

If you've seen or been asked to sign either Friedman or Strayhorn's petitions, then I'd love to hear from you. If you're okay with it, I'll possibly print your response (anonymously if you wish). I'm sure both are gathering petitions on UT's campus, and probably at other college campuses around the state.

Details I'm looking for (among others): who, what the script was, what they were wearing, were they paid or volunteer, how many were gathering signatures, etc.

Posted by Evan @ 03/10/06 10:43 PM | Comments (6)

09 March 2006

Baselice

This was pre-primary, but Burnt Orange Report journal-ist Kevin C reports on a Q&A with Michael Baselice, who's Perry's pollster.

I asked him what he thought about the Kinky and Carol campaigns and he said his numbers show that they will hurt Democrats more than they will hurt Perry. Right now, Texas is about 50% Republican, 35% Democrat and 15% Independent. As long as those two are in the race and draw any voters away from the Democratic candidate, the Democrat will lose because there are simply not enough votes available for them. A Democrat might be able to pull 10% from the Republican 50%, but it's just as likely that Perry will pull in 10% of Democrats. With Kinky and Carol in the race, there just isn't enough of the pie left for the Democratic candidate to win because Kinky and/or Carol will take many independents, some Democrats and some Republicans. Perry can afford to lose some votes, Gammage or Bell cannot. Note that Baselice thinks Bell will win the Dem primary outright.

Posted by Evan @ 03/09/06 08:43 AM | Comments (2)

Some primary thoughts

1. My thoughts on the race haven't really changed much since I wrote a long analysis on January 3rd.

2. Texas has still never had a high-profile Republican primary since Republicans took over this state. This is amazing. It was almost guaranteed that we'd get one this cycle...but we didn't.

3. It's all about early voting -- 40% of the total votes statewide in both the Republican and Democratic primaries were early votes. In Fort Bend County, more people voted early than voted on election day. This is going to change the way people run campaigns; it's already been changing, of course, but it appears that early voting will continue to become increasingly prevalent.

4. GOP turnout wasn't much higher than Dem turnout. 618k to 500k. This is actually a little surprising.

5. I'm glad I'm not involved in any Democratic statewide primary campaigns. It sucks when a non-campaigning perennial candidate can force a relatively serious candidate into a runoff. Maybe it's a good thing for Barbara Ann Radnofsky, because the press will feel obligated to cover the runoff a few times. On the other hand, recent statewide Democratic history should also make Radnofsky scared of losing.

6. Building on number 5, it certainly makes Royal Masset's theory -- that Felix Alvarado would have won the gubernatorial primary -- look very believable. But we'll never know the answer.

7. [I may elevate this to its own post and expand on it more]. I think Bob Gammage was the best thing that could have happened to Chris Bell. Bell needed name ID (and probably still does, though I assume the primary helped) and this was probably the cheapest way for Bell to get it. Without name ID, Bell can't poll well, which means he can't raise money, which means he won't have a chance and the coverage will reflect that.

Posted by Evan @ 03/09/06 02:18 AM | Comments (7)

Items around the state

I'm pretty busy these days, so here's some lazy linking.

Slater/Hoppe in the Dallas Morning News has their gubernatorial race preview here, entitled "It's Perry vs. Bell, with more in wings." You and I both know that it's really Perry vs. World, and I'm kind enough to let the DMN use it, so long as they attribute. Heh.

R.A. Dyer writes up the Dem primary results for the FWST.

Kelley Shannon has the AP's report on Perry and Bell winning the nomination, and then previews:

It'll be weeks before Republican Gov. Rick Perry knows exactly which candidates he'll face in November.

But he's got a sneaking suspicion whom his biggest opponent will be, and he's trying hard not to mention her by name.

Comptroller Carole Keeton Strayhorn, billing herself as "one tough grandma," has millions of dollars to spend on her independent run for governor against Perry and at this point poses his biggest threat. She and author-musician Kinky Friedman moved their independent candidate petition drives into full gear Wednesday, following Tuesday's party primaries.

Democrat Chris Bell, a former congressman, captured his party's nomination over former Texas Supreme Court justice Bob Gammage, winning 64 percent of the vote to Gammage's 28 percent. Perry cruised to victory over three little-known GOP opponents.

When Perry greeted campaign supporters in Austin after his primary victory, he took a broad swipe at his rivals, without naming them.

"The real test of leadership is not saying what you're against. It's saying what you're for. Texans deserve better than empty criticism that serves as a substitute for real substance," Perry said.

Clay Robison does the honors for the Houston Chronicle.

And then, there's the articles that capture the flavor of Texas politics:

James McCutchen sat facing away from the open front doors at Blaine’s Pub — a sign on his back urging people to stop and sign a petition to get Kinky Friedman on the ballot for Texas governor.

...

McCutchen, who said he did not believe in telling his age, wore a long black blazer with a vintage ruby western vest underneath and matching red leggings. His long salt-and-peppered hair was hidden under a 10-gallon black hat.

Jones, 50, wore a red hat, shiny metallic purple stretch pants and silky tall purple cowboy boots.

The two said they wanted to attract attention to themselves and of course, Kinky.

Good ol' Tom Green County. Kinky's folks have told them to get 800 signatures.

Posted by Evan @ 03/09/06 01:54 AM | Comments (0)

08 March 2006

More primary results

UPDATE: Cuellar appears very likely to win without a runoff. Cuellar leads Rodriguez by only something like 48%-45%, but according to the Secretary of State, there are only 5 precincts still out in Bexar County (San Antonio, and Rodriguez's home base), while all 30 precincts are still out in Webb County (Laredo, Cuellar's home base). If none of Webb County is in, then Cuellar should end up avoiding a runoff easily. [Further update: I've seen that some folks are hesitant to call this race, but I'm more than willing. If all 30 Webb County boxes are out and the margins are what SoS says they are, then Cuellar will win without a runoff. Further update 2: Apparently the Webb County voting machines were incorrectly programmed, and thus votes will be extracted from cards attached to each machine.]

**As you can read about at my other blog, Tom DeLay has been renominated with somewhere over 60% of the vote.

** Henry Cuellar leads Ciro Rodriguez 49% to 45% with 70% of the precincts in. I have no idea which 30% is out and it matters very much in this race. If all 30% is in San Antonio, Rodriguez might be able to win without a runoff. If all 30% is in Laredo, then Cuellar will win by double digits.

**Van Taylor edged Tucker Anderson to be the CD17 nominee to face Democratic Congressman Chet Edwards.

**Texas House Education Committee Chairman Grusendorf appears to have almost definitely lost to challenger Diane Patrick.

**Incumbent Democrat state Sen. Frank Madla appears to have been unseated by state Rep. Carlos Uresti in SD19.

**Radio talker Dan Patrick absolutely crushed two sitting State Reps. and one City Councilman. He took almost 70% of the SD7 vote in a four way race.

**Two of the so-called "Leininger Five" appear to have won. Nathan Macias has a 45 vote lead over Rep. Carter Casteel with all boxes counted in the New Braunfels district. Wayne Christian appears to have won his old seat in East Texas back from Roy Blake, Jr. Christian left the seat to run for Congress in CD1, which Louie Gohmert eventually won in a runoff. Tommy Merritt, Charlie Geren, and Delwin Jones all appear to have comfortably held off Leininger-funded challengers by at least double digits.

** Glenn Hegar beat Gary Gates in SD18.

**Local Harris County races: Al Edwards leads by double-digits two challengers in the Democratic HD146 primary but may face a runoff, Patricia Harless edged John Devine in HD126 (Hamric's old seat), and Mike Schofield will face Jim Murphy in a runoff in HD133 (Nixon's old seat). All 3 candidates in HD133 got between 31% and 35% of the vote. Very close race.

** Justice Don Willett beat out former Justice Stephen Wayne Smith 52%-48%. Smith is the guy who unseated Xavier Rodriguez in the 2002 primary, only to lose in the 2004 primary.

** In the ongoing so-called conservative v. moderate battle on the Texas Court of Appeals, Sharon Keller beat Tom Price 53%-47%. Price remains on the same court, of course, leading to some very interesting discussions in chambers, I'm sure.

** Barbara Radnofsky will face a runoff with perennial candidate Gene Kelly (44% to 38%)for the right to be the Democratic sacrificial lamb to Kay Bailey Hutchison.

Posted by Evan @ 03/08/06 12:11 AM | Comments (1)

07 March 2006

Republican and Democratic Primary Results

With about 80% of precincts reporting:

Rick Perry 84%
Larry Kilgore 8%
Star Locke 4%
Rhett Smith 5%

Chris Bell 64%
Bob Gammage 28%

I meant to put a numerical prediction up for the Democrats, but half chickened out/half forgot (that is, when I remembered, I was busy and decided to do it later...and then forgot). I predicted Bell awhile back, so it's no surprise to me that he won. I was going to take the safe route and pick Bell with 60%, but that's easy to say afterwards. That is the number I was kicking around in my head though.

Interestingly, from what I've read (but have not conclusively researched) Bell spent nothing on yard signs, putting his money into direct mail. Gammage, on the other hand, put money into yard signs, but nothing into direct mail.

Posted by Evan @ 03/07/06 11:34 PM | Comments (0)

Results

Results tonight: GOP, Dem

Posted by Evan @ 03/07/06 06:39 PM | Comments (0)

28 February 2006

Money

Dyer -- FWST:

Republican incumbent Rick Perry has 100 times more money on hand for the governor's race than his richest Democratic opponent, new campaign finances reports show.

With the Republican and Democrat primaries just two weeks away, Perry has $9.4 million in cash, while Democrat Chris Bell has $90,868.90 and Democrat Bob Gammage $23,648, according to campaign finance reports due Monday. The most recent disclosures list cash on hand, as well as contributions and expenditures between Jan. 27 and Saturday.

Two other major candidates in the gubernatorial race, independents Kinky Friedman and Carole Keeton Strayhorn, did not have to report contributions because they are not running in the March 7 primaries.

Perry's report shows that his campaign raised $923,369 in the past 30 days and spent $407,579. By contrast, Bell raised $259,569 and spent $305,672, and Gammage raised $58,209 and spent $70,996.

The AP looks at the story from the angle of Bell getting money from trial lawyers:

Generous giving by trial lawyers helped boost gubernatorial candidate Chris Bell's fundraising during the past month as he approaches the Democratic primary election.

Bell, a former U.S. Rep. from Houston, raised $260,000 from Jan. 27 through Saturday, according to a Monday campaign filing with the Texas Ethics Commission. That's more than half the total of $509,000 he raised in 2005.

...

Of the amount Bell raised last month, nearly $110,000 came from lawyers. Major donors included Corpus Christi lawyer Mikal C. Watts, whose political action committee gave $25,000, and Houston lawyer Tom Pirtle, who also donated $25,000.

Trial lawyer money isn't an unmitigated good, of course. But one of the most interesting stories is that the trial lawyers who contribute big money to Democrats in the state...haven't given money. For the Democratic nominee to have a chance, they'll need to have enough resources to get their money out. Watching whether trial lawyers start to give more money to the Democratic nominee will be an interesting story for March and April.

Posted by Evan @ 02/28/06 02:38 PM | Comments (1)

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