Rick Perry vs World

21 October 2010

CD17 coverage

"Top Democratic strategist sees incumbent Chet Edwards holding off GOP challenger Bill Flores in U.S. House District 17" is the headline for a DMN article with this lead:

The Democrat's top congressional strategist predicted this morning that two embattled Texas incumbents, Reps. Chet Edwards and Ciro Rodriguez, would win reelection on Nov. 2.

"These guys are battle-tested," said Rep. Chris Van Hollen of Maryland , chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. "We see good prospects for both."

Considering that most independent political handicappers have Edwards losing, that's an awfully strange headline, and kinda strange to write an article based solely on partisan cheerleading. Maybe Edwards will prevail with his own October Surprise, but it will definitely require coming from behind in a tough environment when some people have already voted.

UPDATE: By comparison, Chris Cilizza's article on the same events at WaPo.com is headlined, "Sessions says 95-100 seats in play, GOP 'well ahead' in 40-plus districts; Van Hollen laments unprepared incumbents."

Posted by Evan @ 10/21/10 04:54 PM | Comments (0)

To those of you with Teacher Retirement System IP addresses

If you'd like to talk, on or off the record, send me an email: perryvsworld @ gmail_dot_com. If you'd like to talk off the record, I will of course need your name, but I promise complete confidentiality. In particular, write if you think I got something wrong.

I'm getting alot of hits from TRS addresses on my Teacher Retirement System posts, so I know a few of you probably have opinions on the Michael Green memo. Like I said, I have experience in the field, so you're better off talking to me than to a political reporter from a TV station or newspaper.

Posted by Evan @ 10/21/10 12:56 PM | Comments (0)

Bob Perry in the news

Bloomberg:

Texas home builder Bob Perry donated $7 million to American Crossroads, helping the political group advised by Republican strategist Karl Rove raise almost $15 million in about six weeks.

Probably one of the smarter ways a Republican could spend money this election cycle.

Posted by Evan @ 10/21/10 10:28 AM | Comments (0)

New poll Perry 48, White 37

Via RickvsKay, the Texas Civil Justice League did a poll with a sample size of 1200 and found

Rick Perry 48%
Bill White 37%
11% undecided

Posted by Evan @ 10/21/10 10:00 AM | Comments (0)

The TRS October Surprise -- based on year old, non-pursuable Teacher Retirement System allegations

Points to the Bill White campaign for getting the Texas media to breathlessly report for a couple media cycles on a possible new scandal at the Teacher Retirement System...when in fact the uncovered facts are more than a year old. Negative points to the Texas media for not figuring this out sooner.

I've read the Michael Green memo about the Texas Teacher's Retirement System (TRS). It is over a year old...and you know the only thing redacted, presumably by Bill White's campaign? Not Michael Green's name...the headers which show the date of the memo's writing. Seriously, the date is the only thing redacted. Somehow this didn't send off alarm bells for the media?

Although White called for an investigation based on the over a year old memo, Travis County prosecutors met with Green in early September 2009 and closed the matter almost half a year ago. Keep in mind that the Travis County DA is elected by a heavily Democratic constituency -- if there's smoke, there is an electoral incentive to go searching for fire. The Attorney General's office also passed. In short, it's pretty clear that prosecutors don't think Green's memo is worth pursuing.

The prosecutor's refusal to pursue the case is in addition to the third-party auditor report hired by TRS which could not find evidence of action worth pursuing.

[disclosure: I have some professional experience in this area, but as far as I know zero professional contact with anyone named in this story.]

As to Green's memo, what I read is similar to what I've heard in conversations with friends who were unhappy that their boss told them what the result should be for their research. Green sounds like someone who is trying to do his job, albeit one quite willing to believe the worst about his bosses' motivations. Indeed, TRS doesn't sound like a well-functioning investment team where internal dissent is encouraged for the purpose of making proper decisions. On the other hand, while I'm not certain of the TRS board members' exact responsibilities, it seems like they likely are obligated to push for managers who they think are proper for the fund. Also, in some ways, 10j is quite disturbing, if true, because it shows a lack of understanding by some management as to how an overcommitment strategy for private equity works, with regards to the need to diversify by vintage year. Likewise 10k -- among others -- might also be particularly disturbing, if true.

But how this connects to the gubernatorial race is far-fetched. I suppose you could come up with a scenario whereby Perry is appointing TRS boardmembers who he tells to invest TRS funds in private equity and hedge funds managers who then turn around and donate a portion of those profits to the Perry campaign. That doesn't really make sense though -- a private equity manager who is already quite wealthy is going to risk jailtime to get 0.5% richer? And why would Rick Perry come up with this relatively small scheme when Clayton Williams has previously said that he'll back Perry with whatever necessary and Bob Perry has repeatedly shown a willingness to give whatever Rick Perry needs? What Bill White or his campaign was alleging just doesn't make sense.

Now, a more likely Dem charge is: well, Perry appointed the wrong people. If we accept everything Green's memo says as unimpeachable fact (further investigation would be required for this), then you can say that Perry's appointees are less than great at being board members.

Unfortunately for White, his own Houston METRO board performed much worse than TRS. And TRS is just a small part of the governor's appointment portfolio, whereas METRO is a pretty major piece of the Houston Mayor's appointments. Moreover, White was known for being personally involved in METRO and transit issues, even running under the slogan "Let's Get Houston Moving." So it's hard to think that we're likely to get better board appointments by electing Bill White.

In short, having investigated this, there really is absolutely zero "there" there to the TRS story. It's surprising that the Texas media has spilled so much ink on what was a non-story...over a year ago. Less so now.

Posted by Evan @ 10/21/10 09:39 AM | Comments (0)

Five good things about Rick Perry

Yesterday I promised to write 5 things even Democrats can like about Rick Perry

* Rick Perry is -- at least -- partially responsible for the fact that Texas has a stronger economy than other states.

* Rick Perry served his country in the Air Force as a pilot.

* Rick Perry is underrated strategically, as every political opponent he has ever had has underestimated him

* Rick Perry is a big fan of the Boy Scouts, being an Eagle Scout himself.

* Rick Perry has risen to the top throughout his life, from Yell Leader to being elected to the Texas House at the age of 34 to governor.

Posted by Evan @ 10/21/10 04:37 AM | Comments (0)

Five good things about Bill White

Yesterday I promised to write 5 things that even Republicans can like about Bill White.

* Bill White tried to include Republicans in Houston City Council decisions

* Bill White has had success in multiple careers, from law to energy investor to politics.

* Bill White is really passionate about the oil and gas business

* Bill White is fairly honest as a politician, hasn't dissembled ideologically in circumstances where other politicians might

* Near and dear to my heart, Bill White made the excellent decision to send at least one kid to Rice

Posted by Evan @ 10/21/10 04:36 AM | Comments (1)

20 October 2010

Cull and comment

* Bill White was hunting votes in Texarkana.

* The Lt Gov was in Fort Worth:

Dewhurst told local business leaders Wednesday that he and other Republicans in Texas are working to make sure that the state has a good business climate.

Dewhurst predicted that efforts to balance the state budget, which has an expected shortfall of more than $20 billion, should be made a little easier by past financial practices such as building up a rainy day fund. "We'll have to tighten the belt some ... but it's not going to be as hard as some think," he said.

Dewhurst said it's time to look at individual programs and evaluate which ones work and cut back on those that don't. "Essential services we will maintain," he said.

He later suggested going out and buying stuff to help replenish the Texas' government coffers. I get that it's light-hearted, but I've never understood why the government -- moreso the federal than the state -- doesn't make it possible and easy to donate to the government.

* Jason Embry doesn't sound impressed by Bill White's debate performance either:

Everything you need to know about Democrat Bill White's campaign came at the 48-minute mark of Tuesday's gubernatorial debate.

A panelist asked Gov. Rick Perry's three challengers (Perry turned down his debate invitation) to name the Texas law they'd most like to repeal. "The death penalty," said Green Party nominee Deb Shafto. Libertarian Kathie Glass said the property tax.

White's response: "There's a whole bunch. But most unfunded mandates on our local school districts deprive them of control. I'll give you an example. I'd like to see the law repealed that didn't give local school districts flexibility in setting school calendars. Why should school calendars be dictated from Austin?"

* Christy Hoppe notes the Perry emails that he used in the primary.

If you click on the video, you'll see Perry standing before a screen of a billowing Texas flag. Then he starts out saying something rather startling: "Hi, your name". Yes, it's the governor. And he's personally urging you to vote early.

The technology is from Bizgreet. Here's their explanation of how it's done: "To do this, the Governor recorded almost 700 names, over 30 cities, and 3 different outros that changed based on the date. It might sound daunting, but it's really simple, quick, and the Governor was able to record all of these segments in just 45 minutes."

Ain't technology wonderful?

* Brad Watson snaps both candidates:

Republican Gov. Rick Perry and his Democratic opponent, former Houston Mayor Bill White, don't agree on much. But something they've both done successfully while in their respective offices is make money for themselves.

While White criticizes Perry for holding assets in a blind trust and Perry hammers White for not releasing all his tax returns, their respective deals show they broadly agree that profiting personally in office is good.

* Point taken:

Translators found the scripts were adequately written and well-delivered for non-Spanish speakers, however, each featured incorrect accent marks or other spelling errors in the on-screen titles.

"Anytime you have a typo it grabs a person's attention away from the most important point, and drives it toward the mistake,� Pechnenko-Kopp said.

I believe it. I don't read the text, but I bet a native speaker does and gets distracted from the visuals.

* I hadn't seen this before, but this is just...strange. Democratic State Judge Jim Sharp is running for Supreme Court, but he doesn't seem to know when to keep his mouth shut giving his unsavory opinions about Democrats or Texans when talking to the Statesman.

Posted by Evan @ 10/20/10 10:55 PM | Comments (0)

Demonization and politics in the Silly Season

We're reaching the peak of Silly Season, where even the normally most level-headed folks start to lose it when their partisan emotional buttons get pushed. I'm reading quite a few vulgarities out there and everyone is very into demonizing their opposition.

Take a deep breath people. Go grab a taco or empanada -- perhaps a Texas microbrew as well -- and relax a little. Opposition != enemy. To misquote Elvis, a little less demonization, a little more compassion.

Since this is a blog mainly focused on the gubernatorial race, tomorrow I'll post 5 reasons why Democrats can like Rick Perry and 5 reasons why Republicans can like Bill White.

Posted by Evan @ 10/20/10 05:20 PM | Comments (0)

Debate, Teacher's Retirement System, Web ads

* Reading through newspaper reports, it sounds like Libertarian Kathie Glass won the debate against Bill White and the green party candidate Deb Shafto. Bud Kennedy seemed to sum up the general mood:

But in a moment that might be a metaphor for White's campaign, viewers also saw him called out by moderator Christy Hoppe of The Dallas Morning News for turning a simple "lightning round" question into a windy, Harvard-lawyer explanation of why he wouldn't rate President Barack Obama on a scale of 1 to 10.

"Mayor White," Hoppe interrupted, "this is a lightning round."

If a debate is so important, why do we have lightning round gimmicks? Maybe there's some poetic justice there, but I feel kinda sorry for White. He obviously has some Obama connections that weigh him down in a Texas general election, but shouldn't he at least be allowed to explain in more than a number?

Also, Bill White isn't a "Harvard-lawyer." He went to law school at the University of Texas.

* Houston Chronicle columnist Rick Casey thinks that the Teacher's Retirement System story is a big deal. Of course, Casey is fairly partisan and pro Bill White, so perhaps he has some vested interest in the story. He certainly played down the outside report based on these allegations of Roel Campos -- a former SEC commissioner -- that found no wrongdoing.

I work in this particular investment space. It isn't particularly surprising to me that a CIO countermands the decision of an underling. That happens all the time in any industry, but particularly in this one. It's a plausible story that higher-ups wanted investments to go to their friends, because that's the way the industry works: manager selection is a batting averages game where you tend to try to pick the ones you trust and have a relationship with. Trustees and CIOs frequently have their own opinions and often don't care what their analysts and division heads think.

In that, it appears that the auditor's report agrees with me:

Campos concluded that while some TRS board members had referred some investment opportunities to agency staff, there was no evidence they pressured employees to make the investments.

He did find that Harris ran roughshod over his subordinates and sometimes made investment decisions contrary to their recommendations. Campos said Harris told him final recommendations on investments were his to make.

Of course they are his to make, because the buck stops with him. The CIO is ultimately reponsible for the investment performance.

UPDATE: I write more about the Teacher Retirement System of Texas.

* Perry links Bill White to Obama and Chicago-style politics in what appears to be a web video.

Seems like the negative stuff is mostly on the web and they are staying mostly positive, but I don't watch enough TV to be sure.

Posted by Evan @ 10/20/10 01:21 PM | Comments (0)

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