Rick Perry vs World

28 October 2005

Random thought

I confess to some mild confusion. Karl-T at BOR has written:

Remember, in Texas, if we had Presidential level turnout, we'd be as much up shit creek with this Amendment as even Oregon was with their $2.4 million in aid from the NGLTF. It's not that we want low turnout either, we need the correct turnout. By making this big splash in the press about us running ads in Houston, not only are Houstonians aware of what's going on from the ads, but so is the rest of the state and those on the right that are paying attention to what we are up to. It's hard to ignore a fifth of a million dollars suddenly playing with Prop 2 turnout.

This paragraph makes it seem that Karl-T doesn't think that Prop 2 can be defeated if Texans are paying attention.

I think he's probably right (vividly blue state Oregon approved a similar amendment), which makes me wonder why the entire content these days of Burnt Orange Report is mostly devoted to efforts to defeat Prop 2. I understand that they feel strongly about it, and perhaps there is a small chance that if they defeat Prop 2 once, then they won't have to deal with it again. But it seems that if they successfully defeat Prop 2 now, then Republicans will find a way to put Prop 2 on a regular election ballot.

Putting Prop 2 on a regular election ballot sounds to me like something Democrats would not like.

Posted by Evan @ 10/28/05 12:58 AM | Comments (0)

27 October 2005

SCOTUS takes up redistricting

The Supreme Court takes up Texas redistricting to determine whether they should grant certiorari to hear the case.

The case is captioned Travis County, Texas, et al. v. Rick Perry, Governor of Texas, et al.. Will there be a hearing? My guess would be no, but who knows? The Supreme Court seems to issue a high-profile redistricting opinion every ten years when reapportionment occurs. This will be John Roberts first crack at redistricting cases, so if he thinks a change is somehow necessary then we will soon find out if SCOTUS grants cert.

Posted by Evan @ 10/27/05 06:30 PM | Comments (0)

dallasblog.com

Dallasblog.com is a new for-profit venture by some former journos that looks to focus on Dallas and Texas news and issues. They've got sub-blogs set up on the Wright Amendment, Robin Hood/school finance, and pro-strong mayor in Dallas.

They also mention Roy Spence as a potential Dem candidate for governor, while mentioning the rumor that Houston Mayor Bill White will be re-elected as Mayor and then immediately file to run for Governor. I've heard it from several sources, but don't buy it for a second. Bill White isn't running statewide in '06. However, I'm confident he'll be on the statewide ballot in 2008 or 2010. The Democratic statewide bench is very slim.

Posted by Evan @ 10/27/05 06:21 PM | Comments (1)

Early voting growl

Is there a good reason why early voting in Harris County closes at 4:30? Is there a good reason why the pollworkers at Fiesta have to be less than courteous when I show up at 4:30.01?

Just asking.

Posted by Evan @ 10/27/05 05:46 PM | Comments (1)

Dumbest scandal ever

There's been a little bit of a fuss here in Houston about the fact that City Councilwoman Carol Alvarado claimed to have graduated from UH when she had not.

That fact alone makes it sound significant, but it's not. Initially, it sounds similar to when once Democratic rising star Lena Guerrero claimed to have a college degree, but actually was lying. In this circumstance, Alvarado thought she had graduated, and there's no reason not to believe her. She completed her coursework, but failed to take a superfluous writing exam that is no longer a degree requirement.

She's a Democrat. I'm a Republican, but I think everyone should agree that this is much ado about nothing. This is not a scandal and it hardly even reflects poorly on her. I'm glad to see that the local blogosphere has treated the issue responsibly.

So what if she was technically not a graduate? Mistakes happen, especially when dealing with arcane graduation rules requirements. She had a job, moved away from Houston and didn't think about it. She didn't get a paper copy, but that's no crime. Some people don't obsess over mere pieces of paper.

This is why good people don't run for office and it's a shame. Criminalizing ethics and innuendo politics are corrosive to our democracy.

Posted by Evan @ 10/27/05 05:15 PM | Comments (0)

26 October 2005

Perry presidential trial balloon

From a National Journal interview with Grover Norquist:

Q: Jeb Bush would clear the field?

Norquist: I think the reason there is a chance for Jeb Bush, and the governor of Texas, or Mark Sanford, the governor of South Carolina, is that all three could run on spending. They have been good on taxes, but they have also been good on spending. [Texas Gov.] Rick Perry cut $10 billion out of the biennial budget when he was first elected, when he was cleaning up after the previous governor's [George W. Bush] spending spree. Jeb Bush has dropped state employment 5 percent a year. Pretty good. Sanford, 100 vetoes [of spending] that the Legislature overrode. Each of those three guys could run as a Reagan Republican, Bush-friendly spending-restraint guy, and I tend to think that is something that will give credibility to candidates.

Passed on without comment, at least for right now.

Posted by Evan @ 10/26/05 01:49 PM | Comments (1)

16 September 2005

Perry leads; why I'm not posting much

A Hamilton Beattie poll of 700 likely general election TX voters. It's a Democratic polling firm.
Margin of error: +/- 3.7%
Party ID breakdown: 37%D, 46%R, 17% Other
GOP subsample: 430 GOP likely primary voters; margin of error +/- 4.7%.
Dem subsample: 430 Dem likely primary voters; margin of error +/- 4.7%.

GOP GOV Primary Matchup Dem GOV Primary Matchup
Perry 62% Sharp 32%
Strayhorn 25% Alvarado 13%
Undec/Oth 13% Bell 11%
Other/Undecided 44%
Generic General Matchup
Perry 42%
Generic Dem 38%
Undec/Oth 21%

Job Approval Perry Legislature
Positive 52% 36%
Negative 44% 59%

General Election "Informed Ballot":
Perry 45%
Sharp 41%
Undec/Oth 14%

The "Informed Ballot" bios:

Perry, the 55 year old GOP TX Gov, grew up on a family ranch outside of Abilene. Perry is the former Lieutenant Governor and Commissioner of Agriculture. Perry successfully worked with legislative leaders to limit lawsuit abuse, balance the state budget without new taxes, and create $9 billion dollars in new funding for Texas schools. If reelected, Perry will continue his fight to substantially cut property taxes, limit increases to local property tax appraisals, and reform our public schools.

Sharp, the 55 year old Dem candidate from Victoria thinks it is time for a change. As a two-term elected state Comptroller, Sharp's innovative proposals included the Lone Star Card that helped reduce welfare fraud and abuse, the Texas Tomorrow Fund to help middle class families save for their children's college, and he was responsible for stopping a state income tax. If elected, Sharp will set real priorities for the Legislature like standing up to big insurance companies to cut homeowner's rates, improving our schools, and restoring fiscal discipline to state government.

Points of note from the poll:

1. I'd say the poll results mesh pretty well with intuition. If Perry is getting these results from Democratic polling groups, he can't be upset.

2. The poll was paid for by AtlanGroup, LLC in Austin. I called Mark Harkrider*, a lobbyist of the AtlanGroup, and asked him about the poll. Based on what the numbers I'd seen (above), I thought it appeared to be a poll designed to encourage John Sharp to enter the race. Harkrider mentioned that the poll was the "first in a series" of polls on a series of current topics. He seemed surprised when I wanted to talk about the guv's race, as he claimed that that was only a small part of this poll. The main point of this first installment was to test attitudes towards VLTs.

He mentioned he was supporting Comptroller Strayhorn (whose poll numbers he thought had potential for "tremendous growth", and implied that he wasn't trying to encourage Sharp to join the race.

I should've had him email me a copy of the whole poll, but I forgot.

*a search of state and federal campaign reports revealed about 10 political donations, all to Democrats.

3. It looks like Perry has successfully shifted blame from himself to the Legislature. He's got a 52/44 (+8% differential), while the Legislature has a 36/59 (-23% differential).

4. Chris Bell is a decided underdog if John Sharp enters the race for the Democratic nomination. He's outperformed by Felix Alvarado -- a guy who hasn't really managed any newspaper coverage or raised any money (to my knowledge). Bell has had pretty good coverage around the state in his travels. To be beaten by a no-name school principal from Fort Worth isn't good.

5. Perry is beating Strayhorn by a large margin. That's really not a surprise. Perry hasn't given likely Republican primary voters a reason to vote against him. He's the incumbent, and the interest groups on the right

6. Rick Perry may be only slightly leading a "generic Democrat," but that's not a bad thing for Perry. You may recall that George W. Bush was losing in nearly every poll against a "generic Democrat" during the 2004 Democratic presidential primary. That's not hard to do. "Generic Democrats" don't have inconsistent statements, verbal gaffes, changing positions, and the like.

During 2003 and 2004, I consistently said that Bush would be re-elected by a close margin, but that he was an large favorite to win re-election, even when polls showed that a "generic Democrat" had a decent lead on Bush. Most people who had any clue about politics understood this (in case I was too subtle, I'm implying that John Zogby should stick to polling and not prognosticating).

7. The fact that Rick Perry is beating John Sharp on the "informed ballot" test is mild support for what I'm talking about on the preceding point.

8. And finally the last point: this race is Rick Perry's to lose. I see few circumstances under which Perry is not re-elected. He's a huge favorite against Strayhorn right now, and it's hard to see Texas electing a Democratic governor. Out of the 29 statewide offices (I think that's right; I'm not going to look it up and verify it), Texas last elected a Democrat in 1994 (Dan Morales served until 1998).

Lots of folks seem to underestimate Rick Perry, but I think it's a mistake. He's a very disciplined campaigner, and he's good at exploiting his opponent's weaknesses. Yes, there are lots of people around the state who are disgruntled with Perry and Perry has some weaknesses. But at the end of the day, he doesn't win by being liked. Perry wins races because more people like him a bit better than his opponent.

This all explains why posting has been slow of late. Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison's decision not to run made this race significantly less exciting for me. Not that I don't expect Strayhorn to make the race interesting, I just don't think her chances of winning are that high. Even if she can make it close, the law of diminishing returns definitely kicks in.

The wild card right now is Kinky Friedman. If Kinky can actually establish himself as a serious candidate with a serious platform, then the preceding analysis is moot. I'll also neglect this blog less.

UPDATE: There's this from TexasWeekly:

The AtlanGroup shows up in Texas Ethics Commission records giving $50,000 to the Texas Democratic Party earlier this year, $50,000 to Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst, and $200,000 to Strayhorn. David and Martha Alameel, who show up as principals of AtlanGroup in some reports, have contributed amounts ranging from $100 to $50,000 to 21 politicians and organizations since 2000. According to TEC filings, those includes totals of $100,000 to Sharp, $75,000 to Dewhurst, $50,000 to Strayhorn, $40,000 to Attorney General Greg Abbott, $30,000 to Democrat Kirk Watson, who ran against Abbott in 2002. They gave $50,000 to the Texas Democratic Party. The couple's contributions � most of them in his name � totaled $479,800 from 2000 to 2004

Posted by Evan @ 09/16/05 08:03 PM | Comments (1)

04 September 2005

There will be updates soon...

honestly, there will.

Posted by Evan @ 09/04/05 06:34 PM | Comments (0)

02 September 2005

Rumors

Dallas News:

Amtrak board Chairman David Laney said Friday that the idea of running for governor is "interesting" because of the need for a "centrist" to challenge Gov. Rick Perry. Collin County Judge Ron Harris said he approached Mr. Laney and urged him to consider running as an education-friendly challenger next year.

Cheers to a reader for pointing it out.

Posted by Evan @ 09/02/05 09:15 AM | Comments (1)

30 August 2005

Tom DeLay to face primary opponent

Chris Elam breaks the story:

Patricia Baig forms an Exploratory Committee for a potential primary run against Tom DeLay in Congressional District 22. Baig joins G-Mike Fjetland as the second local DeLay critic who has formed such a committee.

Will both end up running against DeLay in the March primary?

Will Pete McCloskey and the "Republican elders" come down to interview Baig and make it a race between her and Fjetland to $50K?

A search of Elam's blog turns up some other interesting information. She's surfaced over the past year as a DeLay critic, buying ads criticizing the Majority Leader and sponsoring an upcoming GOP picnic in October. She's also the wife of an oil man, so it looks like she'll have some money if she chooses to self-finance her challenge.

However, it looks as though she may have a difficult time in a Republican primary, even if she wasn't facing Tom DeLay. Fort Bend GOP Chairman Eric Thode has emailed previously: she's never voted in a Republican primary, never given money to the GOP (until the picnic), and she gave money to Richard Morrison in 2004.

Elam is the first one to have this story. We'll see how long it takes to get into the local newspapers.

Posted by Evan @ 08/30/05 12:03 AM | Comments (1)

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