Rick Perry vs World

01 September 2013

How much will Dewhurst spend? (2014 edition)

The Dew historically spent up to $20 million each campaign, but he always got paid back afterwards. Since he had technically loaned himself the money, he'd just pay himself back with lobby money and campaign contributions once he won.

But then he actually lost $20 million in his US Senate primary loss to Cruz, because federal law won't allow him to be repaid. That led to some very hilarious scenes late in the campaign last year, where Dewhurst was spending time raising money in order to pay himself back rather than going out and talking to voters. One notable moment was the night before the runoff, where he had a high dollar fundraiser in Dallas with Rick Perry...maybe even some of his max donors were undecided as to who to vote for?

After Dewhurst made that ridiculously awkward attempt to pull rank and intimidate a police officer, any path to victory is more expensive. His positive ads had little effect in the last campaign, and burnishing your image is more expensive than tearing down your opponents.

Posted by Evan @ 09/01/13 08:40 PM | Comments (0)

31 August 2013

Scott McCown brings the funny

Texas Monthly's interview of far-left* think tank CPPP president Scott McCown is pretty amusing. His attitude is that Texas is an ok place...but Texas would be great if we just had a big government. No kidding, he actually offered Detroit as his example of a place where they just didn't have enough government planning.

But the best Scott McCown quote was undoubtedly this one:

What's frustrated me about TPPF is that assertions they have made have been proven to be demonstrably wrong by organizations like Politifact, and yet they continue to say the same things over and over.

How you doin', Pauline Kael?

* For Texas.

Posted by Evan @ 08/31/13 01:13 PM | Comments (0)

15 August 2013

If I were David Dewhurst, I would...

... run for governor.

Is he likely to win? Not really, no. Is he likely to be re-elected as lieutenant governor? Possibly, maybe.

But Dewhurst running for Lt Gov re-election makes no sense. What's the end game to getting re-elected? If things play out the way they stand now, Governor Abbott is likely to serve until 2023, at which time David Dewhurst would be 78. That means Lite Governor Dewhurst would find it awfully hard to become Governor Dewhurst, if he even wanted to at that point. And heck, Abbott might pull a Rick Perry and stick around for 3 and a half terms. He's certainly waited in line long enough that he might not want to leave after two terms.

Plus there's always the outside chance that the Texas Senate takes away the Dew's power as Lite Guv. Not likely...but not zero, either. And even if they leave his powers untouched, there is definitely an element of soft power to being Lite Guv which ebbs and flow, but which has often ebbed for Dewhurst as the legislative session dragged on.

So can he win a Lite Guv race? I am on the record that Dewhurst can. Remember this: right now, everyone running for Lite Guv (and against Dewhurst) endorsed his record as lieutenant governor. But it's definitely possible that he loses. It might even be more than 50%. Remember also this: Dewhurst NEVER cracked 45% in his bid to the Senator.* Dewhurst's loss had nothing to do with when the primary date was held,** and everything to do with the fact that he couldn't convince a majority of people to vote for him AT ANY TIME even when the voters had no clue who was running against him.

If Dewhurst is going to win, he is going to need to solve the 45% problem. That fact doesn't change whether he runs for Lite Guv or Guv.

And that is why he should run for governor. He has the money to run, so why not give it a shot? Nobody grows up dreaming of being Lt Gov for 20 years. Dew won't be the favorite, so he can let loose and relax. He can run as the conservative that he claimed that he was in 2012. He can run on a couple simple ideas: slash the higher ed bureaucracy so middle-class kids graduate without crushing debt, reform the tax system, and promote school choice so poor kids in the city can have a shot at a decent life. With that platform, he'd keep a good chunk of the moderates and win a bunch of conservatives. He'd give Abbott a run for his money. It'd be good for Abbott, and it'd be good for Texas to have a debate about the future of the best place on earth.

Do I think Dewhurst will take my advice? Of course not. There' s a history of Dewhurst ignoring good advice.

* Except in some bogus polls that only some gullible journalists bought because it fit their mistaken preconception of the race.
** Despite warnings of very low turnout in a late July runoff, there was negligible dropoff.

Posted by Evan @ 08/15/13 02:24 PM | Comments (0)

14 August 2013

Wendy Davis is Bret Schundler.

...wait, who? Exactly.

Bret Schundler was once the conservative superstar of blue New Jersey, in much the same way that Wendy Davis is the MSNBC infatuation du jour. Of course, unless you follow NJ politics*, that means you haven't heard Schundler's name in the last decade.

Wendy Davis won in a GOP-leaning Fort Worth district**. Big deal -- Schundler was mayor of Jersey City, a place where Democrats routinely get over 75% of the vote.*** Not only that, he was re-elected mayor with 69% of the vote.

They both went to Harvard. Some people seem to care about that.

Unlike Wendy Davis, Bret Schundler actually accomplished things in elected office other than just talking. A May 1, 1994 Washington Post news article commented:

When Bret Schundler took over as mayor of this diverse city less than two years ago, it was on the verge of bankruptcy and crime was raging out of control. Since then, he has cut taxes, balanced the budget and made the city's streets safer.

Schundler had started his adult life as a Democrat, working a staffer for a Democrat in Congress and then working for Gary Hart's presidential campaign.

Schundler then ran for governor of New Jersey, in the Republican friendly year of 2001. George W. Bush's ratings as president were sky-high, and the Democrats fielded the weakest candidate they could find, Jim McGreevey****.

Schundler still lost by 15% to McGreevey.

And so it is with Wendy Davis. She can run for re-election. She'll very likely lose, because voters are now paying attention to how liberal she is. Or she can run for governor, where she is even more likely to lose.

But unlike Bret Schundler, maybe Wendy Davis can parlay the loss into an MSNBC gig?

* He was Chris Christie's Commissioner of Education in 2010, until Christie scapegoated him for a snafu.
** Good job, Bryan Eppstein.
*** 6% of Jersey City's population is registered currently as Republican. This hasn't changed in the intervening decade.
**** McGreevey was mired in ethics scandals when he resigned.

Posted by Evan @ 08/14/13 11:13 PM | Comments (0)

16 July 2013

The road not taken

Back in February 2011, I said that "smarter play is for Dewhurst" to skip the senate race and run for governor. He'd be the frontrunner for governor right now instead of Abbott if he had never run for Senate. Unlike the Senate primary, he would have been unlikely to lose.

Dewhurst and Abbott did actually run against each other for Lt Gov for a brief bit back in 2002, until Abbott backed down and ran for AG.

Instead Dewhurst ran for Senate, and now faces a tough battle to hang on to his seat.

Posted by Evan @ 07/16/13 10:17 PM | Comments (1)

05 July 2013

#TXLtGov: Something tells me the field ain't set

Right now, four candidates are running for Lieutenant Governor: David Dewhurst, Todd Staples, Dan Patrick, and Jerry Patterson.

Notice something about that? They all endorsed Dewhurst in 2012 #TXsen.

Even moreso than Rick v Kay, the Cruz vs Dewhurst race was the seminal primary. There is a huge opening here for someone else: Staples, Patrick and Patterson have already endorsed Dewhurst's record.

Posted by Evan @ 07/05/13 01:40 PM | Comments (0)

26 June 2013

Dan Patrick/Goeb to challenge Dewhurst...after endorsing Dewhurst's record?

Dan Patrick/Goeb appears to be about to announce his campaign for Lt Guv on a blogger conf call tomorrow. Per email:

Since then, there has been much speculation as to my plans to continue to serve the State of Texas, and that is why I'd like to invite you to a Blogger Conference Call. On this call, I'd be more than happy to discuss this year's legislative session and address any questions in regards to my plans to serve in Austin going forward.

It looks like we know where Patrick/Goeb is aiming:

This year we have witnessed one of the most active and transformative legislative sessions in recent history. I was one of the few senators to stand in opposition to the Lieutenant Governor's reckless and bloated budget – which cut funding for border security, increased spending and raided four billion dollars from the rainy day fund.

This is the Dan Patrick/Goeb that endorsed David Dewhurst over Ted Cruz last year. According to Goeb/Patrick, Dewhurst and Goeb/Patrick agree 95% of the time. Or was that 98% of the time?

Gee, Dan, how can you run against Dewhurst when you endorsed all but 2% of his record?

Posted by Evan @ 06/26/13 10:50 PM | Comments (0)

22 May 2013

Skipping Perry14 for Perry16

It sure seems that the word from folks around the governor (eg here in National Review) is that the governor's preferred option is to skip re-election in 2014 and just run for president in 2016.

Perry 2016 without Perry 14 is wishful thinking.

Posted by Evan @ 05/22/13 07:44 AM | Comments (1)

21 May 2013

John Carona has forgotten whom he serves

Texas Monthly/Texas Tribune have published a must-read series on John Carona. It is a very fair -- maybe too fair -- piece by Jay Root on Carona's regulation of his HOA business interests. It is no wonder that we have such widespread HOA scandals. But the part that most struck me was this:

Only once during our interview did John Carona show any sign of his trademark anger. It happened when I asked him about reports from former Associa company employees that he sometimes treats company assets as if they were his own, whether it's the corporate jet he uses to ferry himself between Austin and Dallas, often multiple times per week, or the leased warehouse near Love Field where he keeps his cherished vintage-car collection. "Those are issues that pertain to my business interests and my personal interests, and frankly, I think it's out of line for a political reporter to be digging into any issue of that nature," he said.

Seriously?

Politicians who have that kind of attitude have forgotten that they are supposed to be public servants. Carona seriously thinks the public has no right to know his business interests? That is mindblowing.

And to think, if Dewhurst had won the senate race, Carona might be lieutenant governor right now. Senate Democrats were going to pick the least-conservative Republican, so it was pretty much a race to the left between moderates like Kevin Eltife, Kel Seliger and Carona. As the article notes, Carona already has at least one Senate Democrat on his payroll.

Part two of the John Carona series.

Posted by Evan @ 05/21/13 04:04 PM | Comments (0)

14 May 2013

O RLY, Stu Rothenberg?

Normally I appreciate Stu Rothenberg's columns in Roll Call. But in an otherwise forgettable column today Rothenberg argued:

DeMint and others of his ideological stripe continue to believe that the GOP needs to present a more ideological, less compromising candidate, and that essentially means doubling down on the party’s message over the past few years -- the same message that has cost Republicans presidential races and Senate seats.

This is certainly conventional wisdom in Washington, DC, and has been for decades. But past results, while not necessarily indicative of future performance, completely belie Rothenberg's claim.

More ideological/less compromising nominees
Reagan 84
Reagan 80
W 04
Bush 88
W 2000

Less ideological/more compromising nominees
Bush 92
Dole 96
McCain 08
Romney 12
Ford 76

Res ipsa loquitur. In the past 40 years, it looks like the GOP only won when they did the opposite of what you want them to do, Stu.

Posted by Evan @ 05/14/13 01:16 PM | Comments (0)

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