Rick Perry vs World

20 September 2006

Text of new Strayhorn TV ad

I happened to be in front of my TV, so I thought I'd try and catch her commercial. I had quick success.

Using the miracle of Tivo/DVR, here's the script:

Announcer (authoritative voice): Carole Keeton Strayhorn ["Carole Keeton Strayhorn" on white screen in small letter black text]

[Strayhorn, in same red/black outfit as other ads in front of same white background as other ads] "I'd be embarrassed. Our public schools still can't count on funding [bottom right of screen now reads "Carole Keeton Strayhorn" above "OneToughGrandma.com"] but our governor has a $320 million corporate welfare slush fund [screen focuses more on her face]. That's not Robin Hood, that's robbin' everybody. And it's wrong. Let's get rid of our governor's slush fund and ban all gifts from lobbyists [accompanying text on screen]. I want Austin to hear our voices. I'm Carole Keeton Strayhorn. This Grandma wants to shake Austin up.

I think it might be possible to score political points against the governor's Texas Enterprise Fund, but I don't think this is it. The ad doesn't really tie the Fund to any emotional reaction voters might have. And then it scatters on to issues that are tangential.

At first, I was going to take issue with the Perry's camp assertion that this was a "negative attack ad." As I started to write why it wasn't, I had to stop. I guess it sorta is an attack on the governor, but it's so oblique that I don't think this will drive the governor's unfavorable numbers up any.

Here are the two reasons why I don't think this ad is all that effective:

1. It's too obtuse and unfocused. After viewing this ad, what does your average voter think or feel? Is it motivating? Does it affect my everyday life?
2. It's too similar to her other ads. I think that if I weren't looking for it, I wouldn't have paid attention, because I would've assumed that this was an ad I'd already seen.

Alex Castellanos does Strayhorn's media, and he's done some great spots in the past. But I haven't seen any great spots so far in this campaign.

Posted by Evan @ 09/20/06 07:11 PM | Comments (0)

Wright Amendment amendment going down?

That title isn't a typo. Looks like efforts to amend the Wright Amendment will likely fail during this Congress, meaning it'll be quite awhile before they change it.

Without the antitrust exemption that was stripped from the Wright Amendment bill by the House Judiciary Committee earlier this week, the bill will have to be brought down, said the bill's author.

"We won't pass the bill that came out of the Judiciary Committee," Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, R-Texas, told reporters Friday. "We'd have to bring it down. We couldn't pass it."

"It is my highest priority," she said of the bill. "I lose sleep every night."

Hutchison told reporters she hopes to have a solution this month. She says she is constantly trying to come up with the language that will push the bill through Congress.

It's largely a parochial issue for the Metroplex region, and one that's definitely not simple. Amending the regulatory morass is complicated.

Posted by Evan @ 09/20/06 06:41 PM | Comments (3)

Perot staying out

This is from last week, but it's worth a mention:

A governor's race with two independent candidates isn't enough to entice Dallas billionaire Ross Perot to get involved in a campaign again.

The man who twice ran for president as a third-party candidate tells The Dallas Morning News he's staying out of politics and sticking with issues.

Perot's Reform Party campaign drew enough votes in 1992 to help Bill Clinton defeat President George H.W. Bush. Perot ran again for president in 1996.

He has been known in the past to make endorsements.

Perot was once all about independent and third-party candidates, even bankrolling the Reform Party's short-lived tenure. Now he apparently isn't getting behind any indies in his home state. He's an odd guy.

If there was a independent candidate who had a legit shot at being president, it was Perot. And then he spectacularly self-destructed.

Posted by Evan @ 09/20/06 06:41 PM | Comments (0)

Strayhorn goes negative?

I just got the press release from Rick Perry's camp that Strayhorn is putting up a new negative ad. Unfortunately, I'm still not on the Strayhorn camp's press release list, so I can't bring you the text of her ad.

I'm sure more will follow tonight.

UPDATE: Saw the ad.

Posted by Evan @ 09/20/06 04:40 PM | Comments (0)

SurveyUSA poll numbers

Via Paul Burka, I see that Survey USA has released new numbers.

Survey USA, 536 likely voters, +/- 4.3%, Sept 16-18
"If the election for Governor of Texas were today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now, who would you vote for?"

Perry 35%
Friedman 23%
Bell 23%
Strayhorn 15%
Werner 2%

I can't find the dates the automated poll was in the field, but Burka says the dates are Sept 16-18, so I'm sure he's right. Burka also analyzes the poll, much of which I concur with.

I think the main thing to come away with from this poll is that Strayhorn's first media spots didn't move her numbers. I've been more or less saying this for a few months, but I'll repeat it again. Strayhorn's campaign over the summer was all over the place. There was no consistent narrative, and it's going to be awfully hard for her to find one now.

Posted by Evan @ 09/20/06 04:31 PM | Comments (2)

One newspaper bought the story, the other didn't

I've been amused that Democrats are pushing this story:

National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Tom Reynolds said he personally recruited Taylor to challenge Edwards in the Central Texas district and was involved from the "earliest days." But it's not clear if that recruitment occurred before or after Taylor bought a house near West.

Edwards used those comments to suggest Taylor "made the decision to run for Congress here before he lived here."

Taylor said he was not recruited by anyone outside the district to run for Congress. He wouldn't say when his conversation with Reynolds about running for office occurred.

Taylor said he decided to move to a house outside West in the summer of 2005 because he thought it would be the perfect place to raise his family. He has said that his first encouragement to run for the seat came from Republican Party leaders within the district.

Seems like a funny story for Democrats to be pushing, considering that Nick Lampson still doesn't really live in district 22 (he's renting a room in his aunt's house, unless something has changed recently).

What's the difference? As far as I can tell, the difference is that the Waco Trib bought the story, and the Houston Chron didn't.

Posted by Evan @ 09/20/06 03:06 PM | Comments (1)

Democrats for Bonilla

Greg Jefferson in the SAEN:

Former Gov. Dolph Briscoe is with him. So is Uvalde Mayor George Garza and Helen Dutmer, a former Bexar County commissioner and San Antonio city councilwoman.

They're among 21 pols and former pols sitting on the steering committee of "Democrats for Bonilla," according to Rep. Henry Bonilla's campaign.

Their support could give the San Antonio Republican some much-needed credibility among Democratic voters.

The three-judge panel — responding to a U.S. Supreme Court ruling that Congressional District 23's 2003 remapping violated the Voting Rights Act — sliced four staunchly conservative Hill Country counties out of the district and added Democrat-heavy South Bexar County.

Although Dutmer, who is also supporting Republican George Antuna over Democrat Joe Farias in the Texas House District 118 race, is the sole South Side politico on the list, she's not the only San Antonian.

Henry Muñoz, CEO of architectural firm Kell Muñoz and a former chairman of the Texas Department of Transportation, is also is a "Democrat for Bonilla," according to the seven-term congressman's campaign.

Bonilla is the perfect candidate for this district. He's going to be awfully tough to beat, because he's proven himself to be a good campaigner.

Antuna might be one of the few folks who could hold Bonilla's seat when Bonilla takes a shot at a statewide race in the future. But that depends on him winning this race and being successful in the Legislature. Given that if Texas Republicans want to maintain their hegemony over the next few decades, they'll need some Hispanics on the team in prominent seats of power, the Texas money givers might want to consider amply funding Antuna.

Posted by Evan @ 09/20/06 02:54 PM | Comments (3)

Strayhorn advertising on RedState

I noticed Carole Strayhorn has a BlogAd up on RedState. It's over on the right sidebar. For those who don't know, Red State is probably the nexus of the right-leaning online activist community.

The ad costs $500 for 1 week, less if you buy more than 1 week.

I was a little surprised. Most of the folks at RedState have probably made up their mind, most of 'em for Perry. RedState doesn't exactly seem to be the place she'd be advertising, but then, I haven't exactly figured out her advertising strategy. And that, I think is the problem: she's all over the place.

UPDATE: As if they were trying to make my point, a RedState subblog posts on it.

Posted by Evan @ 09/20/06 02:45 PM | Comments (1)

Chris Bell outperformed by a corpse

WFAA:

"You could be a corpse and get 31 percent as the Democratic nominee just about any office," Bell said.

This was right around the same time last week that I predicted that Bell would get 31%.

Posted by Evan @ 09/20/06 02:32 PM | Comments (0)

19 September 2006

It's that time of year again

It's about this time of the election cycle* when the Houston Chronicle decides that they'd like to publish a poll of local races.

Who do they always turn to? Doctors Stein and Murray. The same folks that they quote in every article about politics.

Personally, I'm hoping -- but not expecting -- that the Chron decides to hire professional pollsters this year. I suspect that one of the reasons the Chron hires Stein and Murray is because they're cheaper. However, their polls simply don't compare to any professional pollster. The poll they did on DeLay in January was just a disaster, and an embarrassment to the Chron.

And of course, it pains me to criticize any professor from my alma mater. Rice's reputation is underrated enough outside of Texas as it is.

* 50 days until election day.

Posted by Evan @ 09/19/06 07:33 PM | Comments (0)

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