Rick Perry vs World

30 October 2006

The Chron poll

The Houston Chronicle/KHOU have released their pre-election poll, done by Zogby. Of note, I'm fairly certain that every cycle from 2000 until now have been Murray/Stein, so the Chron has decided to change pollsters.

Here're their results:

Perry 38%
Bell 22%
Strayhorn 21%
Friedman 11%
Werner 1%

Another data point. I'm still feeling okay about my prediction, and will resist the urge to rejigger it.

You can read the polling script, or go see the crosstabs they've made available at the main site.

They also have some CD22 results:

36% Lampson
28% Sekula-Gibbs

Sekula-Gibbs might get 30% of the vote. Maybe. I doubt it. Polling this is pretty difficult, and I'm not a fan of the way they polled it. [Read the script here]. I'd have asked the questions differently.

I know the NRCC has spent quite a bit (over a million) in this race, so maybe they're seeing something in their more sophisticated polling. But I still don't buy it.

Posted by Evan @ 10/30/06 12:01 AM | Comments (2)

26 October 2006

Facebook updating

Awhile back, I decided to check in and see how many kids on Facebook had joined groups for one of the Texas gubernatorial candidates. Let's do it again.

Texans for Rick Perry - 985
Chris Bell for Governer! - 156
He Ain't Kinky, He's My Governor - 20,306
Carole Strayhorn for Governor - 64 (Right below, there's a group called "A Texas Governor Should Know Who the President of Mexico Is..." that has 180 members. Ouch!)

For comparison purposes, the old numbers were:

10276 Kinky Friedman
665 Rick Perry
50 Chris Bell
12 Strayhorn

Posted by Evan @ 10/26/06 11:36 PM | Comments (0)

Silly columns

Carl Leubsdorf's column in the DMN:

News that President Bush will make a campaign stop next week in former Rep. Tom DeLay's Houston-area district underscores the defensive strategy the White House has adopted in seeking to stem a potential Democratic tide in next month's elections.

In 2002, when Mr. Bush was riding high politically, he led the charge against Democratic incumbents and helped produce one of the best midterm showings for a recent president.

Mr. Leubsdorf seems to miss the fact that Bush is defending Republican seats because Republicans have already captured much of the low-hanging fruit.

It really was a silly column the more I thought about it. Yes, it's a bad environment for the 'phants and Bush isn't very popular, but the rest of the column seems a little silly. Or maybe it was edited poorly. Who knows?

Posted by Evan @ 10/26/06 11:09 PM | Comments (0)

Reflexively yours

Janet Elliott, Chron reports on the report that Strayhorn's office released yesterday:

The state's contract with a private company hired to administer children's health insurance and other state benefit programs should be canceled because of mismanagement, Comptroller Carole Keeton Strayhorn said Wednesday.

"The contract with Accenture must be ended. This project has failed the state and the citizens it was designed to serve," Strayhorn said in a report to three lawmakers who asked her office to investigate the contract.

...

Accenture-run call centers that screen for eligibility in the Children's Health Insurance Program have been plagued by computer glitches and lost or backlogged applications, which has caused children to be wrongly denied coverage.

I'm sure the Comptroller's office just finished this report this week. [/sarcasm]

If we just decided to get rid of a government program every time there was "mismanagement," would we have any government at all?

Posted by Evan @ 10/26/06 11:01 PM | Comments (2)

CD17

I have yet to read an article by the Waco Trib's CD17 Dan Genz that could be characterized as favorable to Van Taylor. Today's is no exception, which seems to seek to defuse several of Taylor's campaign points.

Edwards is probably a good favorite to win here -- neither the NRCC or DCCC is playing in this race -- but I highly doubt he is up 20 (as he claimed he was in released internal polling) or that he'll win by 20.

Posted by Evan @ 10/26/06 10:52 PM | Comments (0)

Random thought while sleepy on a Thursday night: Draft Fred Thompson

I'm not too excited about any of the '08 GOP candidates right now. I do think it is imperative that we beat Hillary. If you thought Bill or W divided the country, just wait for Hillary.

So can we draft Fred Thompson? I'm almost tempted to register a domain name.

Posted by Evan @ 10/26/06 10:40 PM | Comments (0)

How hard could it be? This is how hard it could be.

Janet Elliot profiles Kinky Friedman, at the end of his second political race [he ran for Kerr County sheriff in 1986]:

Even here, surrounded by those he holds dear — six friendly dogs, a namesake macaw and assorted humans — he can't put the slings and arrows of politics out of his mind.

"I didn't expect the media to be so low," he said, brown eyes narrowing. "I thought they would go after the guy who's really stuffing money in his pants. That's (Gov. Rick) Perry.

...

With one poll showing half of voters have a negative perception of Friedman, Smith says he worries that Kinky's image has been irreparably tainted.

"He's the sad and tragic clown of Texas politics," Smith said.

Such criticisms sting, and Friedman says his former editor is the "guy I don't want giving the eulogy at my funeral." That's a big change from 2002, when Friedman asked Smith to read "The Navigator" at his dad's funeral.

How hard could it be? This is how hard it can be, Kinky.

In your hubris, Kinky, you just thought you could waltz into the Governor's Mansion on the strength of your personality. You even had the witty slogan, "how hard could it be?" Well frankly, governing is harder than campaigning, and you haven't shown yourself to be much of a campaigner.

Evan Smith is right, Kinky is the sad clown of Texas politics right now. That's sad: he seems like a good guy whose columns I used to usually laugh at. After he's lost, hopefully he'll realize that he shouldn't be bitter -- heck, he's gotten treated nicer by the media than most candidates. Instead, he should realize that politics is serious business.

It really could be that hard.

Posted by Evan @ 10/26/06 01:27 PM | Comments (1)

Polls!

I'm shamelessly stealing these numbers from Paul Burka's blog. Not only does he have the best political blog in Texas, but he's done the best job of keeping up with the polls while I've been away.

Rasmussen (parentheses indicate previous Rasmussen poll):

Perry 36% (34%)
Bell 25% (19%)
Strayhorn 22% (21%)
Friedman 12% (18%)

Survey USA:

Perry 36%
Bell 26%
Strayhorn 19%
Friedman 16%
Werner 1%
Undecided 2%

Zogby's worthless internet poll:

Perry 37.2%
Bell 26.2%
Friedman 13.2%
Strayhorn 13%
Werner 3.9%
Undecided 6.5%

Trial lawyers org poll:

Perry 34%
Strayhorn 19%
Bell 19%
Friedman 9%
Undecided 19%

Data points, people. Data points.

Posted by Evan @ 10/26/06 07:36 AM | Comments (0)

Burying the lead

I buried the lead. [On my blog, it'll be lead, not lede, thank you very much.]

On my recent post, I just listed the endorsements that a cursory search had turned up. I'll reprint 'em:

Austin American-Statesman: Rick Perry
Dallas Morning News: Rick Perry
Fort Worth Star-Telegram: Chris Bell
Houston Chronicle: Carole Strayhorn
San Antonio Express-News: Rick Perry
Midland Reporter-Telegram: Rick Perry
Galveston County Daily News: Kinky Friedman
Bryan-College Station Eagle: Rick Perry

Surprising? Yes. I mean, in today's environment it might make sense. Op-ed boards don't think highly of Bell, who hasn't really proven himself to the op-ed boards. Friedman is a joke. And Strayhorn is running a campaign that is all over the map (for heaven's sake, she just announced a steering committee two weeks before the election!).

But think back to a year ago. Then think back to two years ago. Or even three. And now, it starts to be quite surprising that most of the op-ed boards are endorsing Perry. These same folks were regularly lambasting him during that time period, frequently over Strayhorn's criticisms. Plus, the Chron ed board was never going to endorse Perry -- it's probably the most liberal in the state, and they've been among the most ardent of Perry critics.

So I buried the lead. If you were to tell me this three years ago, I'd have been shocked.

Posted by Evan @ 10/26/06 01:39 AM | Comments (2)

Taxes, Perry, Bell, Strayhorn

Definite differences in what the gubernatorial candidates are promising to do on taxes:

"Our budget surplus is going to be so friggin' big," Perry said. "So why not lower the [business] tax rate down to three-fourths of a cent, or a half-cent? ... I'm all for that."

The new business tax, part of a sweeping school finance overhaul, takes effect in January 2008. Most businesses will be taxed at a rate of 1 percent. The overhaul was designed to reduce the state's reliance on the property tax to fund schools.

Apart from possibly lowering business tax rates, a big surplus would allow lawmakers to further reduce property taxes, as well as fund the dilapidated state park system and other long-neglected needs, Perry said.

But Perry's Democratic opponent, Chris Bell, said dollars from both the surplus and the new business tax -- which he calls the "largest tax increase" in history -- should be tapped to increase funding for public education.

"Now he's saying none of that can go to our public schools," said Bell spokesman Jason Stanford. "What's wrong with that boy?"

Another Perry opponent, independent Carole Keeton Strayhorn, accused the governor of using fuzzy math to entice voters as the Nov. 7 election draws near. Strayhorn spokesman Mark Sanders said the reforms Perry signed this year are already destined to blow a $25 billion hole in the budget over the next five years because they promise more property tax relief than the state can deliver.

Meanwhile, Perry is attacking Bell for wanting higher taxes.

Posted by Evan @ 10/26/06 01:22 AM | Comments (0)

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