Rick Perry vs World

07 November 2006

Liveblogging at the Perry party

I'm the kid in a dark suit, red tie, yellow shirt (client meeting today), sitting down with the media with a laptop open. It's hard to miss me.

8:38: Dewhurst takes the stage. "Wow. What a difference four years makes."

9:00 Abbott and Combs both spoke. They spoke less than Dewhurst.

9 Bonilla to face a run-off? He's at 49%.

9:05 Unfortunately, all my calls in races around the nation look right. Yikes.

9:10 Talent leads in MO! I hope this is the race I miss each cycle.
9:11 Allen leads! He might pull it off after all.

9:30 Jerry Patterson "To the Democrats who ran against this statewide team: what were you thinking?" Pretty funny.

Posted by Evan @ 11/07/06 09:40 PM | Comments (0)

Results

So far, my predictions all look reasonable.

After early voting, Perry had 41.1%, Bell 29%, Friedman 10%, and Strayhorn 19%. After 3% precincts in, it's Perry 40%, Bell 30.2%, Friedman 11, Strayhorn 18.

Kay Bailey Hutchison has 62% over the Precinct Chair.

In a surprise, Chet Edwards leads Van Taylor 2 to 1. Yikes. Dr. Paul is crushing Shane Sklar, who is breaking 33%.

Posted by Evan @ 11/07/06 09:37 PM | Comments (0)

Exit polls

I was probably the only Republican who wasn't worried at all on election day in 2004. I just never thought there was even a chance that the exit polls were near correct. I really was never too worried that W would be re-elected in the run-up to the election either. So I ignored the exit polls.

I agree a little bit with Bob Novak:

Enormous Republican efforts to encourage early and absentee voting could dramatically skew exit polls. Do not be surprised if the apparent results Tuesday night are overturned by Wednesday morning in several close House races.

I agree more on the first sentence than the second.

Posted by Evan @ 11/07/06 10:58 AM | Comments (0)

Texas predictions

I'll take Paul Burka's quiz:

1. In 1853, Elish Pease won the governship of Texas with 36.67% of the vote. Will Rick Perry do better or worse than Pease?
Better.

2. What percentage of the vote, in round numbers, will each of the four leading contenders for governor receive?
On September 14th, I predicted Perry 44, Bell 31, Friedman 13, Strayhorn 10, and Werner 2.

It was probably a little silly to think that Strayhorn would collapse that much. I'm going to keep Friedman at 13. Give Strayhorn 17. Bell 29%. Werner 2% (just cracking the 1.5% mark) and Perry the rest, which would be 38%. Except I remember 2002, where Perry very much outperformed the polls. On that basis and party lines, I'm adjusting it to 41% Perry, 28% Bell, Strayhorn 17, Friedman 13, and Werner 1.

Lots of odd possible iterations for this one.

3. The partisan division of the Texas House of Representatives is currently 86 Republicans and 64 Democrats. What will the partisan division be when the 80th Legislature is sworn in come January?
I don't really know. My other predictions have been pessimistic, so I'm going to go with 82 GOP, 68 D. No. I'm going to change it to 83 GOP, 69 D in my last breath of optimism.

4. How many statewide offices will Democrats win and what races will they win?
I'm not that much of a pessimist. Zero.

5. What percentage of the vote, in round numbers, will Henry Bonilla receive in the 23rd congressional district election?
51. Total guess.

6. Who will win the race between Nick Lampson and Shelley Sekula-Gibbs in the 22nd congressional district and what will the spread be, in round numbers?
I'm assuming Burka means the general, and not the special. It might be awhile until we know the answer to this, with the write-ins and all. I think there'll be a significant undervote. I think Smither will take 11% or so. Shelley gets to 33%. Lampson has 55% of the people that voted, but it's really less than that because of the undervote. Yes, I know the numbers don't add up. I don't really have a clue.

7. After Kay Bailey Hutchison, what Republican candidate will receive the most votes statewide?
Dewhurst or Abbott. I'm gonna pick Dewhurst, despite what Burka says. Total guess.

8. Which race for the state House of Representives will have the smallest margin of victory?
I don't really have a clue. I'll go with HD118.

9. Which statewide race will produce the best showing for the Libertarian candidate?
Isn't this kinda like betting on whether heads or tails will come up? I'll go with Tom Oxford, on the theory that Burka is counting most votes and not vote percentage.

10. Other than Rick Perry, which Republican statewide candidate (NOT counting judicial candidates) will have the lowest percentage of the vote?
I would've guessed Don Willett. I don't really have a clue at this, so I'll guess Todd Staples.

Other predictions: Shelley wins the special. Edwards wins in CD17, and Dr. Ron Paul wins in CD14. I assume Lamar Smith will avoid a runoff.

Posted by Evan @ 11/07/06 12:30 AM | Comments (0)

06 November 2006

Federal: The House and The Senate

I've been waiting for Republicans to convince me that this wasn't going to be as bad as I thought it was going to be. I'd like very much to be convinced, but I haven't been. I wish I could be convinced, and I hope I'm wrong, but here are my projections. Small caveat: I wasn't paying attention for awhile in October, so I have significantly less confidence in these projections than I otherwise might.

I don't have much confidence about the nationwide polling that the RNC is touting. There might be some momentum, but I think plenty of it is just natural tightening. I hope I'm wrong. Bob Novak has predicted only a two seat loss in the Senate, including Republican Senate and Governor wins in Maryland. I think he's crazy, but I hope he's right.

But first, from a Republican perspective, there's good news and bad news about tomorrow.

Bad news: 1. I think we're going to lose control of the House and barely lose the Senate, but we have a shot at keeping the Senate.

2. Despite strong economic growth and extremely low unemployment, Americans are not happy. This largely has to do with the war.

3. If I'm right, Democrats will take the House and Senate (barely). If so, that has serious implications for Supreme Court nominees.

Good news: 1. Democrats have no mandate. Was Nancy Pelosi front and center and making news every night? No. Did they run on a cohesive liberal platform? No. (If you think otherwise, can you tell me what it is, aside from just being anti-war?) Are the candidates who will help them win the House mostly to the right of the House Democratic Caucus? Yes.

2. The nation is fundamentally slightly more Republican than Democrat. This is the worst cycle for Republicans since Watergate, and yet we won't lose as much. Why? Becasue the nation only tilts slightly right, and when people aren't happy, then we lose. Like this year. But, all in all, this probably gives us a good shot of keeping the White House in '08 as well as recapturing the House (keeping the Senate? Possibly even tougher than re-capturing the House is my gut call right now). A good deal of Republicans' wounds has been self-inflicted. Winning all the time probably isn't healthy anyway: we certainly had some Congressmen who needed to go. [Note: the Democrats have just about as many who need to go. (See Jefferson, Bill. Cross reference: 100K cash in the freezer.]

SENATE:
Dem pickups:

Ohio: Senator DeWine is a good senator. Unfortunately, Taft has made Republicans unelectable in Ohio this year. Blackwell doesn't help much either. DeWine loses; it's not that close.

PA: Santorum lost this election about two years ago. I refuse to write any more about this election, except to say that I think subconsciously Santorum is ready to start making money.

Rhode Island: In the least Republican of states, can Chafee win? Methinks not. Especially while a Republican guv is winning re-election. I saw Chafee's recent TV ad, and his body language was just way off. He's always been a little awkward and the language was good, but he was grinning and frowning at all the wrong times. Whitehouse edges a product of a famous Rhode Island political dynasty.

Montana: Democrat Jon Tester is the perfect senator for somewhere on the West Coast. He's a terrible senator for Montana. However, Conrad Burns has run a campaign that's not worthy of re-election. So which one wins? Tester is too liberal for Montana, but he's eschewed the spotlight, and run as blandly as possible. Polls have showed Burns bouncing back to even, but I think he loses even in this Republican state.

Tossup: (leans Dem, I just can't quite say it)
Virginia: George Allen hasn't run a good campaign. Jim Webb is not senatorial at all. Neither one deserves to win. So, who loses less? I have no idea. In some ways this race reminds me of VA 94 -- the last time a Democrat was elected to the Senate in Virginia(Chuck Robb -- married to LBJ's daughter -- was a much better Senator than Jim Webb might be). So yeah....I have this in the toss-up, but if I have to predict, I'm predicting that Allen loses. I really, really hope I'm wrong.

Missouri: I like Jim Talent. Claire McCaskill isn't impressive to me as a candidate/campaigner. It's hard for me to imagine Claire McCaskill winning. In any other cycle, she loses to Talent. In this cycle, she probably beats him, unless the 72 Hour Program saves him in this swingiest of swing states.

Democratic hold:
Maryland -- In any other cycle, Republican Michael Steele wins in Democratic Maryland over lackluster Democrat Ben Cardin. Steele's a great candidate and has been forced to endure plenty of racism, but this is a horrible cycle. Maybe he can pull it off, but I highly doubt it.

Republican hold:
Tennessee: In what strange reality is Barack Obama the media's Annointed One (see John McCain, 2000) and not Harold Ford Jr? Harold Ford, Jr., is better looking, more charismatic, and arguably more articulate. Ford's also not reflexively liberal like Barack Obama. Unfortunately for Ford, he lives in Tennessee and Obama lives in Illinois. And that's why Ford is going to lose tomorrow.

Despite Democrats' claims of race-baiting (um, hello, Maryland?), this race bears lots and lots of similarities to the Senate campaigns in neighboring states in both 02 and 04. 02 and 04 each had races in North Carolina and South Carolina which featured late breaking Republicans in open seats. The Republicans won all of those races, and despite the breeze blowing in Corker's face, he'll edge out Ford. Ford ran a great race, but had a couple of gaffes in the end that cost him his chance.

That leaves us 51-49 Dem. Ouch. I really thought the Senate would be 50-50, and honestly I still think there's a decent chance that one of the GOP candidates will pull through. I guess it'd have to be Talent, Allen or Burns, in descending order of probability. Maybe Steele. Maybe even Chafee...Rhode Island is kinda odd that way.

I don't think any of the other races are worth me writing about: Michigan, Washington, Arizona, Minnesota, Nevada, New Jersey.

Every cycle since 2000, I've picked one Senate race wrong. I really hope I picked one wrong, and that it isn't Corker/Ford. I hope it's Talent or Allen.

Party switchers? I doubt it. Lieberman isn't going to even think about switching to the GOP unless the GOP offers him the chance to chair a committee and the Democrats don't. But why would the Democrats deny Lieberman the chair of a committee if that would risk loss of organizational control? Would Chafee switch if he were re-elected and it was 50-50? My gut says no. If the man has any personal decency (and I think he prides himself on it), he would feel compelled to stay a Republican organizationally for at least 2 years, even if he voted straight-line Democrat otherwise.

HOUSE:
Ugh. Do I really have to say this? Democrats pick up 28 seats the way I see it. That would leave them with 231 seats, and the GOP with 204. Maybe I'm being slightly pessimistic here. It could be 26.

GOVERNORS:
I'm not going to go into detail, but I think Dems definitely will be over 25 governor mansions on Wednesday. In fact, I'd project that they win 7. Maybe 8, or even 9.

[Note: I may keep tinkering with this through the night.]

UPDATE: Yes, I know no one else is predicting that Dems will take the Senate. What can I say? I'm a captive of my deduction skills.

Posted by Evan @ 11/06/06 11:28 PM | Comments (3)

Prediction time

I've just crammed my head full of info, and now I'm going to go for a run and let my brain sift through it.

Unless something changes on my run, I feel pretty bad about tomorrow. It's going to be a good day for Democrats.

Posted by Evan @ 11/06/06 07:29 PM | Comments (0)

05 November 2006

Blum & Weprin poll

Dallas Morning News commissioned a poll done by Blum & Weprin:

10/29 - 11/3, 823 likely voters, +/- 3.5

Perry 39%
Bell 22
Strayhorn 18
Friedman 11

This election cycle was pretty much a perfect storm for the Dems. They had attack dogs to drive up Perry's unfavorables, allowing Chris Bell to get to the end of the campaign undefined. In this state, that's good for a Democrat. However, Bell won't be able to cobble together enough of those anti-Perry voters to win.

I suppose you could say that if there had been a strong Democrat who'd wanted to run in March, then that person matched against Perry might have a chance. But of course, who could've known then that the election cycle would be as it is.

Posted by Evan @ 11/05/06 08:14 PM | Comments (5)

Kinky Friedman has a girlfriend

Polly Ross Hughes brings us today's Page 6 tidbit:

The new woman in Friedman's life, Issy Drinkall, of London, belies the 62-year-old humorist's joke that he's "too young for Medicare and too old for a woman to care."

Drinkall owns an advertising sales company representing several U.S. and German magazines. "I live in England, but my heart's in Texas in more ways than one," she said in a telephone interview from London.

Drinkall, 33, bought a house in Medina after falling in love with the Texas Hill Country while staying on a ranch in Bandera four years ago. She met Friedman last March, swinging by his nearby Echo Ranch to introduce herself after completing a solo 4,000-mile road trip.

"He was awestruck that a single woman drove across America, an Englishwoman at that," she said.

Posted by Evan @ 11/05/06 06:31 PM | Comments (1)

Last Survey USA poll

SUSA:

10/31 - 11/2, 557 Likely Voters, +/- 4.2%

Rick Perry 38%
Chris Bell 22%
Strayhorn 21%
Friedman 17%
Werner 1%

Interestingly, Perry does better with female voters than with males. Also amusing to me is that the poll has Strayhorn doing weakest in the suburbs, which is exactly the area that at the beginning of the campaign you'd have intuitively expected her to be strongest.

Oh, and after looking at the cross-tabs, I think this understates Bell's support by a point or two, but unfortunately for Bell, he simply never consolidated any momentum.

Posted by Evan @ 11/05/06 06:24 PM | Comments (0)

Bonilla just needs to survive

Gary Martin has a column in the San Antonio Express-News:

Henry Bonilla's ambition to serve in the U.S. Senate could crumble next week if he fails to win his re-election bid without a runoff.

And political analysts say that could be a difficult goal.

Color me unconvinced. All Bonilla needs to do is survive this election to keep his hopes alive.

What will determine the next junior Senator from Texas? In the last few cycles, there's been some direction from above (how's that for Note-like allusion?). Presumably, that will continue to be a factor. But the main thing that will determine whether Bonilla becomes the next Senator is whether he can raise the money necessary for a Congressman to win a statewide primary. Under federal campaign finance law, that depends largely on the people who are willing to call their rich friends and tell them go give money to political candidates. These people are astute enough to realize that Bonilla has a tough district in a tough cycle. Whether he wins by 1 point or 10 points -- with or without a runoff -- is so much less important than whether he wins.

Posted by Evan @ 11/05/06 06:13 PM | Comments (0)

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