Rick Perry vs World

05 November 2006

He's kidding, right?

National Review has written some odd things recently about district 22's race between Lampson and Sekula-Gibbs.

First, Rich Lowry passed on an absurd rumor that Lampson would consider switching parties. That rumor is so stupid, I can't believe Lowry passed it on. Lampson would get Michael Forbes'd so fast, it would be funny. Yes, Lampson will realize that he's a severe underdog to get re-elected in 2008, but he's not going to switch parties.

Second, Byron York writes that Sekula-Gibbs has a chance. It's that time of year again: The Silly is out in full force. I will be beyond shocked if Sekula-Gibbs gets 40% of the vote.

Posted by Evan @ 11/05/06 06:00 PM | Comments (0)

Shorts

1. Wayne Slater chronicles the Strayhorn camp's difficulties of running without a supporting party apparatus.

2. AP's Kelley Shannon does Bell vs. Perry in the Valley.

3. Remember how I said The Silly often comes out at the end of campaigns?

"The revolution will come to Texas; it just won't be as dramatic here as in some other states," said Kelly Fero, an Austin-based Democratic strategist. "But it will still be a wave in Texas. And it could sweep some Democrats into office that wouldn't have been expected to win a year ago."

Ah, the silly.

4. Mike Ward and Corrie MacLaggan have an article on the few people showing up at both the Bell and Strayhorn rallies. And then there's this nugget, which indicates why Bell was always going to come in second:

"Those politicians, they like to talk," said Sylvia Rodriguez, 77, noting that most of the faces in the Robstown senior center audience were seniors, union members and politicians. "I already voted. I think I voted for (Bell). I'm mostly just interested in what's going on here."

5. HD134:

To Gerald Birnberg, chairman of the Harris County Democratic Party, an analysis of early voting in Texas House District 134 shows that Democratic challenger Ellen Cohen is in command.

"He's dead wrong," said Birnberg's GOP counterpart, Harris County Republican Chairman Jared Woodfill: Early voting clearly shows that incumbent Republican Martha Wong is beating Cohen.

Birnberg and Woodfill use similar processes to reach their differing interpretations.

Each day they get a list of those who signed in at early voting locations and check each record to see if the voter has a history of voting in Democratic or Republican primaries — the only way to document party affiliation in a state without registration by party.

Voters identified that way as Democrats are put in Cohen's column, Republicans in Wong's.

The art is in determining how strongly partisan a voter's history is. That, combined with each party's tendency to accentuate the positive, may explain the differing conclusions.

Trying to figure things out from early voting is usually a mistake. There's too many variables at play to give you much useful information. But of course that doesn't stop the politicos! What would politics be without rumors?

6. Chuck Todd, one of the Beltway campaign pundits, writes about this race:

If there is a surprise on election night, I think it would come in Texas. The electorate is still so unstable in the state thanks to the quartet of serious candidates. Perry should win, but his margin will be less than five points. I think Bell's making a move, but Strayhorn and Friedman are still polling too high to put the Dem over the top.

Is he reading the same polls I'm reading? Whoa, inside-the-Beltway conventional wisdom.

Posted by Evan @ 11/05/06 05:47 PM | Comments (1)

03 November 2006

KBH voting for Perry

Todd Gillman has this bit in the DMN:

On the way to Midland, an aide hands her a faxed copy of a Kerrville Daily Times story. Kinky Friedman voted for her. "She is not without charms," the independent candidate for governor told the paper.

She laughs: "He's so open, that he said that."

They had met last Sunday at Love Field, the crossroads of all statewide campaigns. She'll write a thank-you, but her ballot will go to Gov. Rick Perry, her fellow Republican, whom she had thought about challenging instead of running for re-election.

I'm half-surprised that Hutchison didn't refuse to say who's she voting for.

And yeah, that's a headline I never thought I'd write when I started this blog.

Posted by Evan @ 11/03/06 12:30 AM | Comments (0)

The Silly comes out in the closing days

Apparently, this is sexist:

Singer: Real feats of corruption.
Announcer: Today we salute you, Mrs. Corrupt Comptroller Politician Woman.
Singer: Mrs. Corrupt Comptroller Politician Woman
Announcer: Only you, Carole Strayhorn, could take three hundred thousand dollars from your top tax consultant contributor, grant them a $50 million payday and claim you knew nothing about it.
Singer: A crazy coinky-dink!
Chorus: Coinky-dink!
Announcer: When contributors come calling, tax refunds come falling. Comptroller Strayhorn, you didn't just give one refund to a contributor. No, you did it thirty-six hundred times.
Singer: That's a whole lotta coinky-dinks! Whoa yeah!
Announcer: And when the state auditor told you to stop taking tax-tainted contributions...you went ahead and took a million dollars more.
Singer: Not that anyone is counting
Announcer: So here's to you Carole Strayhorn: you not only sold your office...you did it thirty-six hundred times.
Singer: Mrs. Corrupt Comptroller Politician Woman.

Yup. Strayhorn held a press conference to claim that Rick Perry's radio ad was sexist. She says the ad implies a woman "is not strong enough or tough enough" to be governor. Perhaps Strayhorn has missed "Mr. Way Too Liberal for Texas Guy" or "Real Men of Genius." Perry's camp has a poll for people to vote on which one is better. My vote is easy: the Bell spot is much funnier.

C'mon. She hasn't objected to people making fun of her ever-changing name (which could at least she could credibly claim to be gender-linked, as a man doesn't change names when divorced), but she objects to this? That's just silly.

Posted by Evan @ 11/03/06 12:06 AM | Comments (0)

02 November 2006

Revising downward

My latest prediction was that Democrats would take the House by about 3-5 seats. I might actually have to increase the Democrats margin of victory. I'm leaning that way. I still think Republicans will hold the Senate, but that's looking awfully tight.

As Drudge pointed out, Nancy Pelosi has been totally absent from the national stage for the last 10 days. Smart move for her, but hardly the stuff of a mandate.

Last time we had a Republican president, a Democratic House, and a war, the Democrats refused to fund the war unless the president raised taxes. Chances are that history will repeat itself...

Posted by Evan @ 11/02/06 11:41 PM | Comments (0)

Journalists hopping the Facebook train

I post about Facebook on here as a joke. The Houston Chronicle makes it serious journalism.

I am so hip. [/sarcasm] Seriously though, journalists love to write about new campaign techniques. It was only a matter of time.

Posted by Evan @ 11/02/06 11:21 PM | Comments (0)

01 November 2006

Defending Burka to Kuffner

Charles Kuffner quotes Paul Burka, and then exclaims:

The bad news for Bell is that his success seems to have come not at Perry's expense but at Strayhorn's.

Dude. All campaign long you've said that the reason why Rick Perry is unbeatable despite poll numbers in the 30s is because none of his opponents have been able to coalesce the anti-Perry vote. Now we see Chris Bell doing exactly that - this is what it means when some of Strayhorn's support migrates to Bell, as was the case when Friedman started losing voters to Bell - and it's still bad news?

I see Kuffner's point -- I noticed the same thing.

But I think Burka's point is that Bell is only snagging a point or two off of Strayhorn. Strayhorn isn't falling precipitously, and Perry isn't moving at all. There's not much evidence that Bell has really coalesced an anti-Perry vote around himself. If that's the case and Bell doesn't take any votes from Perry, then Perry isn't beatable. Of course, my guess is that the polls probably overstate Strayhorn's percentage by a couple points, while underdoing Perry's and Bell's percentages by a few points.

Posted by Evan @ 11/01/06 06:56 AM | Comments (6)

Why is Bell off the air?

I can't figure out why Chris Bell is off the air. Did they really spend every last penny they had on TV without any more coming in? Is it some elaborate fakeout ploy that even has the TV stations fooled? (Heh.) Does he think he's supposed to get another million from ~~sugar daddy~~ trial lawyer John O'Quinn?

Or maybe they just decided to roll the dice and spend all their money. Perhaps, they were thinking, if we spend all our money, then our poll numbers will go up. If that happens, we'll be able to raise more money.

Well, their poll numbers might've blipped up. Or they might not have. But apparently there isn't lots more money coming in...or at least it hasn't come in yet. Bell's camp reports another $300k will come in from John O'Quinn, but that's really only 2 days worth of TV money in this state.

Smart campaigns always have a closing strategy...and then usually a contingency closing strategy just in case something happens. It appears that Bell's campaign just didn't have one...or if they did, they spent the money already.

Posted by Evan @ 11/01/06 12:02 AM | Comments (2)

31 October 2006

Another (this one is mostly worthless) data point

Zogby internet poll:

Perry 37
Bell 29
Strayhorn 15
Friedman 15

I've written for years now about how untrustworthy these Zogby internet polls are.

That's awfully different than their phone poll done for the Houston Chronicle in a similar time frame, which found this:

Perry 38%
Bell 22%
Strayhorn 21%
Friedman 11%
Werner 1%

Internet polls are not reliable. Here's the funny thing: I could write long paragraphs explaining why this is, but it's not worth it. At this point in the election cycle, with partisan fervor at a peak...if you don't already know why internet polls aren't reliable, then you're probably not going to be reasoned with.

Posted by Evan @ 10/31/06 07:48 PM | Comments (0)

Strayhorn and Bell on the air

Harvey reports that Strayhorn campaign manager Brad McClellan is claiming this:

He also said that the Bell campaign could only make a $40,000 media buy to cover the next four days. Strayhorn, who has already made her media buys for the rest of the campaign, is spending $200,000 daily.

That is, of course, unless O'Quinn decides to ~~burn some more money~~ give more money to Bell.

Posted by Evan @ 10/31/06 07:41 PM | Comments (0)

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