Rick Perry vs World

01 May 2007

Ahead of the news cycle

Kevin noted on last night's Bloomberg post that I had just beaten the Wall Street Journal to the story. There's a story in today's WSJ (subscription required) or if you don't have the WSJ, there's an excerpt at their Washington Wire blog.

Not too surprising, they and I both made the Perot analogy and mentioned the heavily negative right track/wrong track numbers. But, being the WSJ, they got Frank Luntz and Ed Rollins (Perot's pollster and consultant, respectively) on the phone.

By the way, here's something I intended to mention last night, but didn't: if Bloomberg enters the race, the Democrats chance of winning the White House rises significantly. I don't think people appreciate the extent to which this is true.

Posted by Evan @ 05/01/07 01:02 PM | Comments (0)

30 April 2007

daily Fred Thompson

A smattering of Fred Thompson news:

1. First, the quote of the day:

Thompson also has begun inoculating himself against potential attacks from rivals. During a question-and-answer session with House members on April 18, Thompson was asked about his colorful dating history from 1985 to 2002, while he was divorced.

"I was single for a long time, and, yep, I chased a lot of women," Thompson replied, chuckling, according to an attendee who took notes. "And a lot of women chased me. And those that chased me tended to catch me."

Awesome.

The rest of the article talks about trying to run a different sort of presidential campaign. That might actually fly this year, because of the condensed primary calendar. Plus, Fred's the kind of guy that could get away with doing things a different way; he was, after all, drafted. Indeed in 1994, he revitalized a flagging campaign by buying a red pickup and driving it around Tennessee. Some derided it as a gimmick, but it worked because it was authentic. Fred kept driving the pickup after the campaign.

2. Stu Rothenberg:

I'll admit that I have had a hard time warming to the idea that former Sen. Fred Thompson (R-Tenn.), whom I first saw as minority counsel during the Senate Watergate hearings and whose TV and movie credits include "Die Hard 2," "The Hunt for Red October" and "Law & Order," would run for president. And it seemed, at least initially, even more difficult to imagine him as the Republican nominee next year.

One of the reasons I tend to shy away from doing too much predicting about Democratic primaries is that I understand my lack of insight. Rothenberg is basically admitting to this.

Regardless of whether it is deserved, Thompson earned a reputation around the nation's capital as someone who didn't like to raise money and who didn't have a high energy level in the Senate. When he had the chance to be handed a second full term, he turned it down, choosing instead to return to his acting career.

Obviously, there is a world of difference between an executive position such as president and a legislative one, and if he does enter the GOP contest, Thompson could say that he's a "doer," not a "talker," who would feel more comfortable in an executive post.

Former Republican National Committee Chairman Ed Gillespie, who now chairs the Virginia GOP, recently told me that criticism of Thompson is not always on the mark, and some of it is reminiscent of criticism aimed at former President Ronald Reagan.

Thompson is a leader; the Senate is a difficult place for leaders. The money thing is certainly an issue, but will alleviate when Republican money men and women realize that the grassroots strongly support Fred. Quite a few of the folks donating to McCain and Giuliani are doing so because they look(ed) like winners.

3. Land Commish Jerry Patterson, Railroad Commish Victor Carrillo, four state senators, and almost 60 House members have signed on to encourage Fred to run for president.

Patterson will be surprisingly strong in a statewide primary.

Posted by Evan @ 04/30/07 11:52 PM | Comments (1)

Bloomberg

I've been surprised at the recent lack of speculation over whether Michael Bloomberg will run for president as an independent. It seems to me that he very well might.

First, let's consider it from his perspective. Bloomberg is a guy who thinks he should be president. He's tacitly encouraged the presidential speculation in the past. Unlike the other candidates, he can write a $500 million check to finance his entire campaign and it won't materially change his financial situation. So he won't have to grub for money on the phone. Moreover, he's got only a year left of being mayor...why not give it a shot?

Furthermore, there's a certain degree of similarity to 1992: an unpopular President Bush, a dissatisfied public (26/67% right track/wrong track in a recent Harris poll), a relatively lackluster crop of presidential candidates. Even enviro issues are high-profile again, like they were in the early 90s. And while the war was over in 92, it was still on people's mind.

Bloomberg is much like Ross Perot. Social moderate-to-liberal, budget hawk, self-made billionaire. A little eccentric with some occasional faux populism. Although he runs on the Republican line in New York City, Bloomberg is no Republican. He was a lifelong Democrat who switched parties so he could easily run for mayor. Like Perot, he can run against the two-party system as a reformer who can't be bought.

So will he run? I'd put the odds somewhere a little over 35% (or if you will, 2 to 1). The odds go up a little if Giuliani isn't going to be the Republican nominee, because two Yankee mayors running for president might be just a little too much...especially if Hillary is the Democrats' nominee.

Posted by Evan @ 04/30/07 11:23 PM | Comments (1)

Happy Tax Freedom Day!

Today is Tax Freedom Day. After working solely just to pay taxes, you can now start earning for something other than the government. Sweet.

Posted by Evan @ 04/30/07 09:41 PM | Comments (0)

29 April 2007

Quixote

Wait, I thought some other trial lawer bloke was going to be the ~~sacrificial lamb~~ senatorial candidate.

Nick Lampson has a difficult decision to make: quixotic bid for re-election or quixotic bid to unseat Cornyn?

Lampson's camp is being somewhat coy about the Senate race, as might be expected at this point.

"He has been getting a lot of calls from lots of friends and supporters around the state asking him to look into it," said Mike Lykes, who just traded in his job as Lampson's chief of staff to become his campaign finance director. "He is just trying to concentrate right now on getting better and getting back up to D.C."

The calculus is fairly simple, several Democratic strategists say: Lampson faces a battle to hold on to his House seat, and, since he'll have to raise millions of dollars anyway, he might as well go for the brass ring.

Well, he's got a huge fundraising list from last cycle. ~~And, if I recall correctly, he banked a good deal of money since he didn't have to face a real candidate in '06...although if memory serves, he didn't bank as much as he should have.~~

Wow, I just checked. Scratch that last sentence. Lampson only has $260k in the bank, as of 3/31/07. He spent $3.5 million in '06 in a race he couldn't have possibly lost. That's...amazing. Truly remarkable. Will Democratic donors donate again to such a spendthrift?

Sounds like the consultants will want him to run. Unless, that is, the trial lawyer is willing to blow through some cash.

Posted by Evan @ 04/29/07 04:24 PM | Comments (0)

Chat[tering]

This blog's namesake was in Pittsburgh for a Boy Scouts convention/speech. While there, he stopped in and chatted with the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review.

Perry has to enjoy knowing that it will get the Austin chattering class...chattering. Stopping by a newspaper board in a key swing state just to...chat. [The Tribune-Review is generally the more rightward-leaning paper in the area, while the Post-Gazette leans leftward.]

The transportation issues facing Texas Gov. Rick Perry earlier this decade were so severe that it was faster to take back roads from San Antonio to Dallas than Interstate 35.
That's akin to taking Route 60 to Pittsburgh International Airport from Downtown to avoid the Parkway West.

Perry pushed through a package of highway construction projects driven by public-private partnerships, similar to the long-term lease of the Pennsylvania Turnpike sought by Gov. Ed Rendell.

Texas' decision to turn to private companies to build and maintain 4,000 miles of highways in key corridors was in response to a business and population boom. Highways were clogged and air pollution worsened.

...

Perry likes Rendell's turnpike plan, as long as revenue is directed only to transportation projects.

"If Pennsylvania needs new infrastructure, new lane miles, and if all the money stays in the world of Pennsylvania transportation, then that's worth having," he said.

Considering that Rendell's plan calls for taxing oil company profits, that's a little bit of a surprising thing for the governor of Texas to say to the Tribune-Review editorial board. Although I imagine that Perry was probably chatting about this in the context of talking about his own Trans-Texas Corridor plans.

Posted by Evan @ 04/29/07 03:55 PM | Comments (0)

Uh, who?

SAEN, Scott Stroud:

Mikal Watts, a trial lawyer who moved to San Antonio from Corpus Christi in August so his daughter could attend TMI — the Episcopal School of Texas held a fundraiser at his Dominion home a week ago for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.

Who?

Informally, the event was viewed as a test of Watts' ability to raise money for the party and, perhaps, carry its banner as a candidate next year. Given a goal of $150,000, Watts hauled in $1,077,000 — so we're pretty sure he passed the fundraising test.

If you expect 150 people, book a room that has 100 people.

Watts hasn't declared as a candidate and won't for a while. He said he was asked to run by several people in Washington, including Schumer, who has stayed on at the helm of the DSCC to try to build on its 2006 successes.

Schumer is trying to make sure the GOP doesn't get any free passes, so he can suck up some GOP money in Texas. Schumer is smart, but he must be disappointed he can't do any better in Texas.

Please, oh please don't run a trial lawyer! Or throw me into the briar patch.

Posted by Evan @ 04/29/07 01:40 AM | Comments (0)

28 April 2007

Bob Novak:

Fred Thompson's unannounced candidacy for the Republican presidential nomination will go to Stamford, Conn., May 24 for the Connecticut GOP's annual Prescott Bush dinner.

"We're obviously excited out of our minds about it," the party's state chairman, Robert M. Duncan, told this column. He was delighted that Connecticut had gotten the popular actor-politician ahead of Virginia's June 2 party fundraiser.

A footnote: Without announcing his candidacy, Thompson has won straw polls at the Oklahoma Republican convention, the Pennsylvania Leadership Conference, the California Republican Assembly and Georgia's 9th Congressional District party convention.

Thompson's support is remarkably strong in the grassroots.

May 8 was being talked about as the announcement date, but perhaps that's been pushed off.

Posted by Evan @ 04/28/07 02:02 PM | Comments (1)

27 April 2007

No foul? No way!

Selby, today's Statesman:

It's not every day a legislator travels overseas while voting in the Texas House.

Rep. Mike Krusee, R-Williamson County, was in London on Thursday while his votes on about 30 pieces of legislation were cast on the House floor.

...

In the meantime, Rep. Marc Veasey, D-Fort Worth, could be seen punching in votes for Krusee on routine final approvals of legislation.

...

Krusee paid for the trip from his own pocket, Delisi said, making the expenditure distinct from lobby-funded travel cited in a report issued this week by Texans for Public Justice.

Tom "Smitty" Smith, director of Public Citizen's Texas office, saw no foul in a legislator taking a personal trip not funded by a special interest.

The job of legislator in Texas is historically viewed as a part-time occupation. Members usually have jobs.

"And you know, I'm prone to finding fouls," Smith said.

Smith didn't find a foul? This is precedent setting!

Posted by Evan @ 04/27/07 04:00 PM | Comments (0)