20 May 2010
Bill White's new ad
This ad is a pretty big clunker. It starts off slow, doesn't build much for the next 50 seconds [who 'pursues educational dreams?' That phrase sounds clumsy] until White machine-guns awkwardly his resume points to close the ad.
Lots of poor decisions in this spot. 1 minute long, images flashing too fast at the end, the educational dreams, the old photographs, strange transitions, and the wasted space. I get that they are trying to innoculate White from Perry's attacks on specific issues by blanketing Bill White with Texas and Sunday School, but...wow, that ad was bad.
To be honest, in my first viewing I assumed this was a web-only ad until White started the rapid fire diction to get in under 60 seconds. Supposedly this is really airing on TV across the state. I predict a pretty short run time for this one, since they're paying for a one minute spot that doesn't work.
18 May 2010
Austin Dem polling firm: Perry 46, White 37
Opinion Analysts recently completed a survey of 602 likely 2010 General election voters Statewide. The poll was conducted May 7-13. In our initial trial heat – a test with no potentially biasing information preceding – Perry holds a 46% to 37% lead over Bill White, with 3% going to the Libertarian candidate and 14% Undecided.
They go on to argue that Perry's job rating is upside down, although the way they asked the question (they didn't release the whole poll) is the sort of question that will get more people to agree to an ambiguous word (45% "only fair") that the firm can call negative.
In short, if a Dem polling firm has Perry at +9 where they didn't release the whole poll, that goes a fairly long way towards putting the Rasmussen poll in the margin of error.
17 May 2010
Rasmussen: Perry 51, White 38
May 13, 2010 Rasmussen poll
500 Likely Voters, +/- 4.5%
(numbers in parentheses) are from April 14 Rasmussen poll
Rick Perry 51 (48)
Bill White 38 (44)
Not Sure 6
Looks like the Bill White attacks are working, and perhaps we see why Bill White went on the air...in Houston, the only part of the state where he has name identification.
Barack Obama's job approval rating is 42/57, with 50% strongly disapproving. (Do you think Burnt Orange Report still thinks that being in line with Obama puts you in the middle of the road?
Rick Perry 55/43
Bill White 47/41
63% favor repeal of ObamaCare, 53% strongly.
12 May 2010
Dewhurst: I don't want to be a Senator
That's what I thought when I read today that Dewhurst said that he would have accepted the unemployment stimulus funds that would have come with strings attached.
It's pretty much de rigueur to be against that if you want to win a primary.
11 May 2010
Arlen Specter to run for Senate in New York?
Stunning news from the NYTimes:
Buffeted by new polls showing him behind challenger Joe Sestak in the Democratic primary, Arlen Specter announced today that he will move to New York to run against fellow Senator Kristen Gillibrand.
"I am unwilling to have my 29-year Senate record judged by the Pennsylvania Democratic primary electorate," said Specter. "I have not represented the Pennsylvania Democratic Party. I have represented the values of the people of New York." As he said those words, Specter placed a New York Yankees cap on his head.
Pressed as to whether he will run as a Republican or a Democrat, Specter responded, "It depends on which primary I can win. We are currently taking a poll, and we'll make a decision soon."
Specter, after 29 years in the Senate as a Republican, switched to the Democratic party last April. Once leading the Democratic primary by twenty points, he is now behind by 5 as Joe Sestak blankets the airwaves with 2004 footage of Specter beaming while then-President Bush exclaims, "I can trust this man!"
Analysts says the move is unusual for a sitting Senator, but may be shrewd. "Specter hasn't convinced Pennsylvania Democrats that he is one of them, so why not give it a shot in New York? He can run against Gillibrand in a classic New York City vs upstate race while making an issue of her ties to scandal-ridden Democratic Governor David Paterson," said veteran Pennsylvania political observer Terry Madonna.
Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball current status for the New York and Pennsylvania Senate races is "cloudy."
08 May 2010
While I was away...
We had some domain name problems this past week, but we're back and committed* to the blog, with the domain name safely registered under our corporate KW Internet Domination moniker.
While we were away, Rick Perry went out jogging with his dog. A coyote came out of the brush and was afixin' to attack his pup. Now, because every good Texan goes jogging with a sidearm, the Guv pulled out his pistol and shot the coyote. As modern campaigns go, the opposition couldn't hold back from trying to turn anything into a negative, suggesting that the Governor had violated the law.
This doesn't seem like a 50%+1 strategy to me, as most Texans don't mind a governor who shoots a wild animal when threatened...and if it's illegal, we're probably likely to think the law should be changed. It turned out not to be illegal anyway, but then Bill White went and commented that he's "not afraid of coyotes" with the insinuation that Perry is a wimp. That's also a surprising strategy, as very few people are going to look at Bill White and Rick Perry mug shots and go "wow, that Bill White is just so masculine in comparison to that other guy." Not to be outdone, Rick Perry slyly intimated that that maybe Bill White is just too ugly for the coyote.
And people say politics is boring.
Meanwhile, Bill White picked up the not-a-secret endorsement of Grand Prairie Mayor Charlie England at about the same time he was putting an campaign ad up in Houston that...talked about his record as mayor of Houston. England isn't seen as terribly much of a harbinger, as he's hardly seen as the most loyal Republican, and is in fact the father of Arlen Specter style party switcher Kirk England. In response, Perry released a support list of elected mostly-Democrats from South Texas. In counter-response, the Bill White campaign released their own list of Democrats in South Texas.
Were we supposed to be impressed that a Democrat can win support in a monolithically Democratic area?
* Or at least as committed as normal, which is to say: only when the mood strikes.
1. Joe Straus fundraising for Dripping Springs Democrat Patrick Rose.
2. Oh noes! Rick Perry used an ad of Bill White with Yao Ming. The Texas Tribune and KPRC are apparently offended, and KPRC gets the AJ Durrani, from the local Asian Democrats club to say that the ad is "ethnic fear mongering that is putting a chill on the local community." O RLY? That's the stupidest thing I've heard this week, especially since Durrani also admits that Yao is a "community hero." That racist Rick Perry campaign, using photos of their opponent with popular and beloved community heroes. Sometimes Democratic activists really do see racism in every inkblot.
I hate to let the cat out of the bag and say the most obvious thing in the world*, but the photo is in the ad because Bill White looks silly and tiny next to Yao Ming...just like 85% of the other photos in the ad.
3. Texas will be testing ground for IBM's system to use GPS to reduce accidents:
ehicle-to-vehicle technology would give cars standard communication by combining a system similar to Wi-Fi with the global positioning system. Drivers would be warned in short advance of an impending collision, sudden lane change, or if the car in front of them is suddenly braking hard. An estimated 76 percent of crashes involving unimpaired drivers could potentially be prevented using the technology, according to DOT statistics.
The programs will include road sensors and predictive analytics for determining future traffic patterns. While the ability to provide real-time traffic information already exists for some cars and GPS devices, they generally cannot predict future traffic. The predictive analytics transportation tools will allow transportation managers and drivers to make decisions and changes as much as an hour in advance
4. Bill White puts his first campaign ad on the air...in Houston only?
5. Harriet O'Neill is resigning from the Texas Supreme Court.
6. Stewart Powell wrote up KBH's dealings on behalf of NASA, which was interesting, but what struck me was:
Even though she serves in the minority party, Hutchison has outsized influence on Capitol Hill. The reason: She tends to avoid the red-meat rhetoric that discourages Democrats from joining her and would preclude the White House from working with her on compromises.This is a huge reason why Hutchison foundered in the primary. When she started saying that she wanted to stay in the Senate to fight for Republican issues, it called her credibility into question on something fundamental to her long-established image.
7. If I was a Democrat, I'd be hopping mad that the DSCC is currently spending $300k to promote Arlen Specter against a solid Democrat.
*Apparently not obvious to the media?