Rick Perry vs World

31 October 2008

Pre-election hypothetical

How much do you think national Democrats are wishing they'd found a decent candidate to run against John Cornyn?

I think they're wishing quite a bit. I'll catch some flak for this, but Cornyn has not run a splendid campaign. It hasn't been bad -- aside from that Big Bad John video, ugh -- but it's been a run-out-the-clock type of campaign, in the I-don't-quite-have-a-real-opponent vein.

They wouldn't have had to beat Cornyn, just force the GOP to spend money in Texas, which might increase their chances at Georgia, which is likely to be the deciding factor on whether Democrats get 60 votes.

If you're interested, my current projections have Democrats at 58.5 votes in the Senate. I did a quick and dirty write-up. The short of it is that it's definitely not impossible that Democrats will pull 60 votes in the Senate.

Anybody who isn't a hardcore Democratic partisan should shudder at that thought. Just look how well Republicans did, and just look how fast House Democrats deteriorated in this Congress.

Posted by Evan @ 10/31/08 12:43 AM | Comments (6)

29 October 2008

I could approve this message

The Chron does local reporting!

Rice University and Baylor College of Medicine have begun holding serious discussions that could lead to a merger of the state's top private university and one of the country's best medical schools.

A merger would bring Rice the reputational enhancement it has long desired and Baylor the security of a university affiliation, which is often necessary to keep medical schools afloat financially. Baylor is one of only nine stand-alone medical schools in the United States.

Posted by Evan @ 10/29/08 06:01 PM | Comments (0)

The second coming

For those of you who enjoyed this little corner of commentary on Texas politics, I am planning on an imminent return for the blog.

Posted by Evan @ 10/29/08 08:17 AM | Comments (0)

21 September 2008

September 2008

I didn't post this month.

Posted by Evan @ 09/21/08 12:44 AM | Comments (0)

21 August 2008

ningun titulo necesario

August archive placeholder

Posted by Evan @ 08/21/08 12:49 AM | Comments (0)

August 2008

I didn't post this month.

Posted by Evan @ 08/21/08 12:42 AM | Comments (0)

08 July 2008

Can anyone tell me what John McCain's message matrix is?

I didn't think so. Obama is eminently beatable, but McCain isn't doing it right now.

Posted by Evan @ 07/08/08 03:36 AM | Comments (1)

13 June 2008

Dumb

John McCain is opening an office in Jersey:

For the first time in 16 years, a Republican presidential campaign is opening New Jersey headquarters and paying for full-time staffers in the state , a sign that John McCain thinks he can win here.

In another sign, McCain is also scheduled to hold a town hall meeting in Pemberton on Friday in his third trip to the state this year.

Oh. my. gosh. wow. dumb.

If I were John McCain's strategist, I'd have a very simple rule. If I couldn't see a mountain, I wouldn't hold an event and I wouldn't air ads. With the exception of Florida and Northern Virginia and some other scattered ones as well, this would hold pretty well.

Posted by Evan @ 06/13/08 08:44 AM | Comments (0)

11 June 2008

A big thank you to the Democratic Party...

...for not nominating Hillary Clinton. I think political dynasties add significant risk to the long-term stability of democracies.

And hey, even though it was only a tie (that was broken by better tactical decisions by her opponent), there were enough Democrats out there who didn't want to turn the US into a state of political dynasty. Good on them.

Posted by Evan @ 06/11/08 12:40 AM | Comments (1)

09 June 2008

Things I know about the general election:

1. McCain and his campaign overstate the degree to which the American people know his bio.
2. McCain and his campaign circulate with too many politicos who remember what a thorn he has been in Bush's side. The American people don't remember.
3. The map will largely be the same. I've said this for the last 6 months until I was blue in the face, while many very smart people were saying silly things about the map was going to change.
4. If Obama is elected president, he will rival Jimmy Carter for incompetent governing (although let's hope he deregulates some things like Jimmy...though don't bet on Obama having any libertarian impulses.) and serve only one term.
5. As I've said many times, Obama has much more variability as a general election candidate than any candidate I can remember. He could crash and burn worse than Dukakis, or he could sweep Democrats to 60 votes in the Senate. Still, in terms of probability, Obama benefits from such a fantastically fabulous political climate for Democrats that he is a slight favorite. If he weren't such a miserable general election candidate, he'd be a shoo-in. [In fairness, Edwards and Clinton are also pretty bad general election candidates.]
6. I do not envy McCain's dance with Bush. He needs to run as far away as possible. If I were running the McCain campaign, I would be looking for every single potential break I could have with Bush.
7. Barack Obama will continue to get a pass on being the most liberal member of the Senate. Can you imagine if the Republicans nominated Tom Coburn? Every article would declare that the nominee was known as an "arch-conservative." Barack Obama gets to slip by without the liberal label. Ladies and gentleman, the political media of America. Heart them.
8. McCain has a bit of variability in him as a candidate as well. It is not impossible that he could blow up.
9. McCain brings quite a bit of variability as president. He could be fantastic as president, he could be as bad as Jimmy Carter or Harding, or he could die in office after a year.
10. I will shed no tears if McCain loses, though I will fear for my country.
11. It would be very exciting to have a black president. The very likely prospect of the first black president being an epic failure is a sad inherent risk to that excitement.
12. Our first view of President Obama are his actions on campaign finance. Remember that pledge he made to take public money?
13. Number 13 is something I have no idea about. Barack Obama has arguably organized his campaign around the idea that he can transcend politics in order to get things done ("Yes We Can"/"Change We Can Believe In"). Yet, arguably, he has never done this in his life. Yes, there is a Republican state senator he's best buds with (but didn't actually like him enough to endorse him, if I recall correctly). John McCain has an excellent track record of working across the aisle to get things done. Comparing the time while they have both been senators provides a massive contrast.

When you organize your campaign around a flawed principle, you very well might lose. (John Kerry: I served in Vietnam; Hillary Clinton's "ready on day 1", HW Bush's experience.)

If I get around to it, maybe I'll discuss some of these points.

Posted by Evan @ 06/09/08 03:18 AM | Comments (0)

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