Rick Perry vs World

02 April 2010

Could Kay Bailey Hutchison win re-election if she ran?

I think I'd put the odds at more than slightly against her. Now, I know this is hypothetical, but I like hypotheticals. [Side note: it was also a hypothetical when I started this blog to write about KBH would be an underdog against Perry if she challenged him.]

KBH would have to first decide to run, of course. And I have no idea about that. She certainly has been lusting after being governor for the last 8 years or so, with rumors that she was frequently telling people that she wanted to stop travelling, spend more time with her family, etc. She also sold her house in Virginia.

But I think anyone who has paid attention over the last 8 years has also been inured to her words about running for office. She once promised to serve only 2 terms in the Senate. Then she thought about running for governor in 2002. Then she flirted for years with running in 2006 for governor. Then she's changed her mind innumerable times about resigning from the Senate; let's not relive them all, shall we?

On the other hand, if she was absolutely not running for re-election, why bother flying in John Cornyn and Mitch McConnell? Why bother laying out reasons which could plausibly be the reason to run for re-election in 2012?

So, let's start with the obvious: she will get a primary challenger. I'd be shocked if she avoids a serious primary challenge. And I do mean shocked. (Thought exercise: if for some fluke, no one ran against a KBH, wouldn't Ted Cruz jump in? In today's political environment, I think he'd beat her even more soundly than Marco Rubio is beating Charlie Crist.) Lots of people were planning their runs and she promised many of them personally she'd resign. They won't forget.

Then the second obvious fact: Perry just showed her challengers how to beat her. There are some mitigating factors, of course. For one, Kay doesn't need as much of a reason why she's running, which she utterly failed at explaining in her run for governor. Second, running against earmarks in 2012 may not play as well as it did in 2010, plus the issue played slightly better against her in a state race than it would in a federal run.

But then, her answers on abortion will also stand out more in a Senate primary, since it is more of a federal issue than a state issue. And there are so many attack ads that write themselves. The abortion ads, the pork ads, the termlimits pledge turned resigned pledge. I think that alot of people would spend more time calling her a moderate, whereas Rick v. Kay didn't end up as a conservative vs moderate pledge. That's a strategy that gets her into a runoff but loses her the runoff. And one final problem: plenty of folks joined and gave money to Kay for Governor at the time because it looked like a winner. I don't think those people would be there for the re-elect.

All in all, if I were advising Hutchison, I'd tell her to serve her term out and retire gracefully without considering running for even a second. But, as we've learned, nothing seems too certain with KBH until the filing deadline has passed.

Kay Bailey Hutchison, last 6 months or so excepted, was never an outspoken, partisan leader in DC. If she really starts leading the charge, then we'll know that something is up.

Posted by Evan @ 04/02/10 08:38 AM | Comments (2)

01 April 2010

More on "_Is Houston a sanctuary city_?" (Answer: Yes)

In 1979, the Los Angeles Police Department issued Special Order 40, prohibiting police officers from investigating or arresting illegal immigrants, a policy quite similar to what Houston has today.

in 1985, Chicago became a sanctuary city under Mayor Washington. The policy was then reaffirmed in the late 80s by Mayor Daley.

In 1989, San Francisco's city council as well as some other big cities around the nation passed a resolution calling themselves a "sanctuary city." This is akin to Congress passing a non-binding resolution proclaiming Michael Jackson to be a great American: it has zero legal impact. It is only ceremonial.

In 1992, the Houston Police Department issued General Order 500-5. According to the National Immigration Law Center (a left-leaning, Soros-backed group who approves of policies like these), Houston's policy is as follows:

Establishes that undocumented immigration status on its own does not constitute a matter for local police action, and unlawful entry is not to be treated as an on-going offense occurring in the presence of a local police officer.
- Prohibits police officers from stopping or apprehending individuals solely on the belief that they are in the
country illegally.
- Officers may not make inquiries as to the citizenship status of any person, nor detain or arrest any individual
solely on the belief that they are in the U.S. illegally.
- Police officers are prohibited in participating in INS raids where the primary purpose is the arrest of persons
for their undocumented status.
- Police officers may assist INS agents on criminal matters of mutual concern only when
* they have been requested to do so by INS agents,
* they will be clearly exercising their police powers under Texas state laws, and
* they have obtained authorization from an Assistant Chief prior to participation.

This excerpt was taken from a list of cities with policies similar to Houston's. Most of them have a long history of claiming to be sanctuary cities.

----------------

In 1996, Congress passed Section 287(g) which authorized the federal government to perform immigration law enforcement functions, among other things. Bill White chose not to be on the list of jurisdictions who joined Section 287(g).

Rudy Giuliani sued and lost:

In 1996, the Republican Congress outlawed outright city bans on reporting immigration status to federal officials. Giuliani challenged the law in court and lost.

Somewhere in this time period, the Mayor of the Worst-Run Big city in the US, San Francisco's Gavin Newsom, decided to actively try to do anything possible to thwart federal immigration arrests.

In 2005, Bill White opposed Houston City Councilman Mark Ellis' plan

Ellis's resolution would permit police to check the citizenship status of people arrested for Class C misdemeanors, such as traffic violations, and would require such inquiries for anyone involved in more serious crimes. Those found to be in the country illegally would be referred to immigration officials.

Bill White also told the Houston Chronicle that he supported the current policy, because he didn't think the matter was worth the police's time.

Houston is a Sanctuary City This graphic is taken from Wikipedia.

With all that in mind, it's not too surprising that the Congressional Research Service named Houston a sanctuary city several times, including in 2006...even after Bill White had been protesting that Houston is not a sanctuary city.

Bill White and Annise Parker claim that Houston is not a sanctuary city, apparently because Houston doesn't actively work against federal immigration policy to the extent that San Francisco does. But of course, the term "sanctuary city" dates back far before Gavin Newsom, and even before San Francisco decided in 1989 to ceremonially make themselves a ceremony city. Houston isn't as extreme a sanctuary city as San Francisco; I don't think anyone will quibble with that.

But the common list provided of sanctuary cities are those jurisdictions that have limits on information that can be obtained or disclosed about a person's immigrations status. Houston has one. Under current policy, Houston is a sanctuary city, even if, perhaps, a more moderate one than San Francisco.

Posted by Evan @ 04/01/10 10:19 PM | Comments (0)

Petraeus for President*

Mark Bowden is one of my favorite authors. Beyond just Black Hawk Down, he's written lots of engaging profiles stories. He profiles General Petraeus for Vanity Fair, and it's pretty clear he was very impressed.

* The title isn't really serious. No way he's running for president unless Obama really angers him.

Posted by Evan @ 04/01/10 05:10 PM | Comments (0)

Perry's April Fools joke was "Bill White releases his tax returns."

Bill White has a pretty simple way to defuse the story: release his tax returns.

So far, aside from impressive fundraising numbers, I've been underwhelmed by Bill White's campaign.

Posted by Evan @ 04/01/10 04:48 PM | Comments (0)

Rasmussen reports that 80% of Texas media mentions for Bill White were positive. Meanwhile, Perry had 55% negative mentions.

Texas media didn't like Perry before, but after he slighted them by refusing to appear before newspaper editorial boards? Oh boy!

Posted by Evan @ 04/01/10 11:54 AM | Comments (0)

What _would_ Martin Frost do?

Democratic Congressman Henry Cuellar says he briefed Speaker of the House Joe Straus and Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst on a redistricting compromise whereby the Democrats get 2 seats and Republicans get 2 seats. He claims that they agreed in principle.

Maybe I'm the only one who asks myself: what would Martin Frost do? Yeah, I don't think Democrats are going to get an easy 2 seats.

Posted by Evan @ 04/01/10 10:48 AM | Comments (0)

31 March 2010

Politifact is Politipinion: Houston IS a sanctuary city

Politifact holds itself out as a John Roberts-like umpire of political campaigns, dispassionately calling balls and strikes.

If you're going to do that, then you have to be careful. You have to refrain from favoring certain candidates. And neutral people should overwhelmingly not only agree, but think that disagreement would be childish.

Politifact rated as "false" a claim by Texas GOP Chair Cathie Adams that Houston under Bill White was a sanctuary city.

The Congressional Research Service said that Houston is a sanctuary city. Politifact disagrees because 1) there is no policy posted online, 2) the policy is not backed by ordinance, 3) the CRS didn't explicitly delineate why each jurisdiction was considered a sanctuary city and 4) "there is no official policy."

These things are all correct, but irrelevant and/or misleading. Houston is a sanctuary city. As the Houston Chronicle reported in 2003:

The Houston Police Department's controversial policy, in place for almost 11 years, forbids police from asking about someone's citizenship status and prohibits them from detaining or arresting people solely on the belief they are in the country illegally.

You and I might agree or disagree on whether that is a wise policy, but around the country cities that have policies like this are called sanctuary cities. Houston, under Bill White, was a sanctuary city. When Politifact calls people liars who say this, they are crossing the bounds of reason and wading into mere editorializing

Politifact is just mere politipinion.

Posted by Evan @ 03/31/10 11:28 PM | Comments (1)

KBH not resigning is good for Democrats?

Cory Crow makes the argument that KBH not resigning is good for Democrats.

I don't know if I'd go that far, but I generally view KBH not resigning as neither good nor bad for Republican prospects of holding the seat in 2013. Either way, it's not really something that keeps me up at night.

Posted by Evan @ 03/31/10 10:17 PM | Comments (1)

Changing math education?

Since a massive part of state budgets is for education, every year education is an issue.

So, I thought it was worth passing on Lockhart's Lament. Paul Lockhart is a solid research mathmetician who got tired of teaching college kids, so he started teaching K-12 math education. He thinks we should revolutionize the way we teach math.

It's pretty persuasive to me. I loved solving problems, I hated math. I remember getting 4th place in a statewide highschool math competition (top 3 got prizes. doh!) and having them announce it over the loudspeakers at school at the very same moment that my high school pre-calculus teacher gave me back my exam on it with a big F. She did not look happy with me, but I had gotten used to her taking points off of things because I didn't do problems exactly the way she did.

Outside of the college calculus class I took during high school, I never did take another math class. A shame.

Posted by Evan @ 03/31/10 10:10 PM | Comments (0)

Burka: ObamaCare mandate unconstitutional

Paul Burka surprises me by opining that it is ObamaCare's mandate requiring health care insurance is unconstitutional.

I agree, of course. If the Commerce Clause means that the federal government can requires all of us to buy health insurance, then they can require us to do anything. In which case, the whole Constitution doesn't mean much.

Posted by Evan @ 03/31/10 07:22 PM | Comments (0)

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