Rick Perry vs World

06 November 2005

Rick Perry, Prop 2, Gay Marriage, and Texas

Wayne Slater has an interesting analysis of Governor Perry's involvements with Proposition 2. Remember the conventional wisdom.

A key campaign goal of Gov. Rick Perry – boosting the number of conservative evangelical voters – gets a test run this week with the constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage.

Perry aides view the issue as an ideal way to build the political base and refine tactics they hope will benefit them next year, such as targeted e-mails and appeals from the pulpit for "values voters" to get involved in politics.

"This is going to help us a lot because these voters who turn out to vote for Proposition 2 are people we're going to be able to communicate with and try to get them to vote in the primary," said Perry political adviser David Carney.

...

Mr. Perry, already popular with social conservatives, has been a vocal supporter of the amendment since it was created, and it has been key in his aggressive efforts to add even more religious conservatives to his flock. He appears in a video endorsing the ban on the Texas Alliance for Marriage Web site, which is funded by a major Perry political donor, Houston homebuilder Bob Perry (no relation).

...

Since the spring, a network of conservative ministers called the Texas Restoration Project has held a series of "pastor policy briefings" across Texas featuring Mr. Perry and members of his administration. The governor has spoken at all six project meetings statewide.

The project aims to enlist 1,000 "patriot pastors" and register 300,000 new voters, and leaders say they're closing in on both targets.

The effort mirrors a strategy that helped President Bush win re-election last year: Identify and register new voters likely to be friendly to the GOP cause, and then rely on churches and religious leaders to get them to the polls.

...

Mr. Carney said the effort to register religious conservatives will benefit such Republicans as Mr. Perry, but not GOP primary challenger Carole Keeton Strayhorn.

"This doesn't help her in any way," he said, "because her whole campaign is based on the premise that somehow they're going to bring people into the Republican primary who don't normally vote in the Republican primary. Carole's whole theory, as crazy as it is, is that they're going to get these people to vote."

Strayhorn spokesman Mark Sanders said new voters will back the comptroller, not the governor.

"We are trying to encourage everyone to show up and vote," he said. "As for the people who vote for or against the proposition, we hope there are new voters because every new voter who goes to the poll is more likely to vote for Strayhorn rather than this failed incumbent."

Both candidates support the amendment to prohibit same-sex marriage. Democratic challenger Chris Bell said he opposes gay marriage but is against the amendment because state law already bans gay marriage.

Mr. Carney said the Perry campaign hopes to mine data on voter turnout Tuesday and incorporate new voter names in its files to "microtarget" people next year with e-mails, mailings, phone calls and door-to-door contacts.

"It enables us to refine our message delivery so when we're talking to people, we're talking about issues they care about," he said.

Some advocates of the gay-marriage ban caution against assuming that Proposition 2 supporters are all conservative Republicans.

"The most solid voting block for the amendment are groups that are not Republican," said Kelly Shackelford, who is working with a pro-amendment group, Texans for Marriage. "They are the African-American community, which is heavily Democrat, and the Hispanic community, which is majority Democrat."

My guess is that this effort isn't just about the primary. In fact, I think Perry may have more to be worried about in the general election than in the primary. However, that question is largely based on how significant Kinky Friedman will prove to be as a candidate. My guess all along has been that Friedman is likely to be a serious candidate. Currently however, he appears to be splitting the liberals/disaffecteds vote with any Democratic nominee. [Although I'm suspicious of the specifics of Zogby's online polling, it is likely that some broad principles are reasonable to determine from the poll.] If that continues, Perry will be re-elected.

Posted by Evan @ 11/06/05 03:18 AM | Comments (0)

05 November 2005

When non-Texans come to Texas

Tyler Cowen has discovered Texas barbecue, at one of the best locations in Texas: Lockhart. He writes about the experience in religious tones.

He's not too far off. My roommate is from Lockhart, and it's always fun to go visit with him.

Also, Cowen notes that "sauce is frowned upon," but neglects to mention that Kreuz's refuses to even serve sauce. [Edit: This post has a picture of Kreuz's sign mentioning the lack of sauce.]

Cowen is writing a chapter on bbq for an upcoming book on the economics of food. I'm guessing he'll also visit Goode Co., Salt Lick, Rudy's and County Line, among others.

I know this isn't political, but I couldn't resist. Hat tip: Tom K.

Posted by Evan @ 11/05/05 02:51 PM | Comments (0)

04 November 2005

Comptroller Strayhorn's husband ill

The Statesman has this report:

Ed Strayhorn, whose wife is state Comptroller Carole Keeton Strayhorn, sustained stroke-like symptoms Friday during a South Texas visit and was flown to a hospital from a ranch near Kingsville.

Ed Strayhorn, an Austin businessman, was in the stroke unit of Valley Baptist Medical Center in Harlingen, according to a hospital operator. The comptroller flew to be with him.

Carole Keeton Strayhorn's state office issued a statement describing her husband as undergoing tests and otherwise resting comfortably albeit looking forward to returning to the golf course.

Best wishes to Mr. Strayhorn.

Update: He's been released.

Posted by Evan @ 11/04/05 10:22 PM | Comments (0)

The school finance panel

This was sent to me as the list for the school finance panel, which former comptroller John Sharp will chair. I can't vouch for the veracity, but I doubt someone went to the effort to make it up.

-Truman Arnold of Texarkana, a Democrat who's in oil and gas and used to own a chain of convenience stores;
-Bill Blaylock, tax director at Texas Instruments in Dallas;
-A. J. Brune III, the CFO of Wagner and Brown in Midland and Craddick's pick for the panel;
-Randy Cain, a tax consultant with Ernst & Young in San Antonio;
-Alonzo Cantu of McAllen, who's in construction, banking and other businesses;
-James Dannebaum of Dannebaum Engineering Corp. of Houston;
-Wendy Lee Gramm, economist and Sen. Gramm's wife
-Hunter Hunt, an executive with Hunt Oil in Dallas;
-Woody Hunt, chairman and CEO of Hunt Building Corp. of El Paso;
-Kenneth Jastrow of Austin, Chairman and CEO of Temple-Inland Corp.;
-Jodie Jiles, chairman of the Houston Partnership and an executive with First Albany Capital;
-Judy Lindquist, vice president and general counsel for San Antonio-based H.E.B.;
-William McMinn of Houston, a businessman and Republican donor;
-Ernie Morales, co-owner of Morales Feedlots in Devine;
-Jan Newton, SBC
-Dennis Patillo, Houston realtor
-John Roach, Tandy Corp.;
-Robert Rowling, owner of Omni Hotels,
-Ron Steinhart of Dallas, a former exec with Bank One and several other banks;
-Dr. David Teuscher, a Beaumont doctor and SREC member;
-Howard Wolfe, a Houston attorney and close friend of Dewhurst's.

Last time we did this, we started Ross Perot down the political path to running for president. Will it happen again?

Update: The Houston Chronicle has a short blurb.

Posted by Evan @ 11/04/05 02:58 PM | Comments (0)

What will the fallout be?

The Supreme Court of Texas is set to hand down its decision on the school finance cases in the next week. Anyone care to venture a pre-opinion on the political ramifications of the decision?

If they overturn the Austin district court and rule that school finance is constitutional right now, will it affect any of the Supreme Court races?

If they uphold the district court, will that be the impetus that forces the Legislature to act? If so, will they do the bare minimum required by the opinion?

Will Strayhorn figure out a way to attack Perry on the issue, regardless of which way the ruling goes?

Just asking.

Posted by Evan @ 11/04/05 02:47 PM | Comments (0)

"You can't count on free media like this all the time"

Scharrer, SAEN:

Maverick gubernatorial candidate Kinky Friedman reasons that an upcoming "60 Minutes" segment will help him deflect the political hardballs heading his way should his independent campaign pick up steam next year.

Friedman spent Thursday with "60 Minutes" correspondent Morley Safer at Friedman's 400-acre ranch near Medina for a piece expected to run late this month or early in December.

And if that isn't enough for a political novice, Country Music Television will air a sneak preview next week of "Go Kinky," a proposed reality show based on his campaign for Texas governor.

"You can't count on free media like this all the time," Friedman said of his good fortune.

...

Democrat Chris Bell's gubernatorial campaign doesn't seem particularly worried.

"We heard that, in the last episode, Kinky gets voted off the island," Bell spokesman Jason Stanford said.

Nice line, Stanford.

Getting a piece on 60 Minutes is valuable. If Friedman appears serious in the interview, and 60 Minutes doesn't take anything out of context, then it's quite a boon for his campaign.

Scharrer also briefly mentions the "equal time" that I pointed out might be a factor. It's certainly not fair for one candidate to be on TV constantly during a campaign when the others aren't. To my limited knowledge, I don't know that there is an "equal time" provision in Texas law as there is in federal law.

Posted by Evan @ 11/04/05 02:03 PM | Comments (2)

Hotline take on prop 2

What the Hotline (11/4) thinks:

Rick Perry threw himself in the middle of his state's anti-gay marriage ballot prop, likely as a way to both ID and motivate conservative GOPers for his March primary fight.

Posted by Evan @ 11/04/05 01:48 PM | Comments (0)

03 November 2005

Kinky Reality Show

Remember the talk about the reality show that CMT was doing about Kinky Friedman's run for governor? Looks like the pilots are upon us:

If Kinky Friedman's of beat [sic] campaign for governor sounds like something out of a reality TV show...now it is.

"Go Kinky," a proposed reality show based on the writer and singer's independent bid for governor, premieres on Country Music Television next week, campaign press secretary Laura Stromberg announced today.

...

She says cameras have been following Kinky and his campaign entourage for months.

"They pretty much started following us around in March, and I think they wrapped up in June or July."

"Go Kinky" is created by actor/comedian David Steinberg, who directed episodes of "Friends" and the HBO comedy "Curb Your Enthusiasm," and directed by Wayne Miller, who is a lifelong friend of Friedman's, having attended Kinky's parents' summer camp back in the sixties.

[Friedman press secretary] Stromberg says the two pilot episodes of "Go Kinky" will air at midnight and 12:30 AM November 9th. If the show is succesful, it will officially premiere in early 2006.

Have their legal staffs been over this? If this were a federal race, I can't imagine that it would be okay under federal election law for CMT to do a weekly show on a candidate running for governor unless they give equal time to other candidates.

Even so, it seems like there might be a Texas law against this. For example, if this show airs while Friedman is running for governor, it might be an in-kind corporate contribution prohibited by the Texas Constitution.

If I get ambitious, I might research the issue on Westlaw. I wouldn't bet on it though.

Posted by Evan @ 11/03/05 02:03 PM | Comments (2)

Kay Bailey Hutchison versus the World?

Gardner Selby's Statesman column is a whimsical look into the future; specifically, the 2010 gubernatorial race.

Selby floats the names of Tony Garza, current Ambassador to Mexico and former Railroad Commissioner, Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst, and the 800 pound gorilla Kay Bailey Hutchison on the REpublican side, and Bill White on the Democrat side.

This supposes Perry is re-elected, which looks probable. Ok, that might be an understatement.

Since it's late and I have to wake up for class tomorrow, I'll focus only on the names Selby mentions.

Kay Bailey Hutchison would be 67 in 2010. She'd be on the old side, but not too old. Her kids will be hitting their teens, if she wants to rear them in Austin. If she gets into the race, she'd be hard to beat. Of course, she may prefer to retire rather than have to deal with school finance, issue that continues to confound Texas governors.

Lieutenant Governor Dewhurst would probably rather be in the Senate [US, that is] anyway, so he'd probably be happy jumping into the Senate primary and with his wealth he might get the Senate nomination unopposed. Granted, Dewhurst has said he intends to run for governor in 2010, but I think he'd be happy enough headed to the Senate.

My guess is that Governor Perry will want to focus on making money and will retire from private life in 2010. He's never seemed to interested in going to Washington anyway.

Ambassador Garza presents an interesting case. He's married to the Corona heiress, so it's tough not to think that he's got the money if he needs it to run against Dewhurst. Or he might have a clear shot at the Lt. Gov seat. He'd be an attractive Latino face for the GOP to showcase as a rising star. His name ID is low right now. But money can buy name ID.

Who knows? Maybe we'll see a gubernatorial matchup between Kay and Carole. Or David and Kay, or any other wacky combinations.

Karl Rove has done a remarkable job in the past of helping funnel candidates into specific races and helping the Texas GOP avoid primaries. But given the strong GOP tilt in Texas and the deep Republican reservoir of talent, there is a lot of water waiting to come over the dam when it breaks.

Posted by Evan @ 11/03/05 02:08 AM | Comments (0)

Making news when you're the Guv is easy

It was a common theme through the early days of this blog (almost one year old now) that governors have an advantage in campaigns: what they do is covered by the media. When you're the governor, there's an advantage in being able to do things. Comptroller Strayhorn has also been quite adept for getting media attention, but all too frequently the way she got attention was not endearing to GOP primary voters.

Exhibit A: Perry criticizes FEMA:

Amid new allegations that federal hurricane disaster aid is being bungled, Gov. Rick Perry warned Tuesday that as many as 65,000 Hurricane Katrina evacuees could face eviction in Texas before Christmas because federal officials have not paid the rent.

Perry also complained in a tersely worded letter to Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff that: "Our victims of (Hurricane) Rita are being treated differently from the Louisiana victims of Rita. Natural disasters recognize no state boundaries, and neither should FEMA."

Exhibit B: "Perry orders flags flown at half-mast in honor of Rosa Parks" was a representative headline a few days ago, here by the FWST.

To be sure, the opportunity to act and be in control when a disaster like Katrina happens is a greater benefit than either of these exhibits. Governor Perry, Mayor White, and Judge Eckels all took advantage of the opportunity. Good governing is good politics.

Posted by Evan @ 11/03/05 01:46 AM | Comments (0)

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