Rick Perry vs World

13 November 2005

"Prop. 2 passage seen as '06 tool"

Gary Scharrer's SAEN column focuses on Prop 2 and Rick Perry:

The legions of social conservatives who poured out to support a gay marriage ban in Tuesday's statewide election could show up again to vote for a governor next year, says the pastor of a movement to mobilize them.

Gov. Rick Perry played a leading role in pushing Proposition 2, the measure to place a gay marriage ban in the state Constitution that won a whopping 76 percent of Texas votes.

...

But a Democratic consultant said the campaign for a gay marriage ban amendment would do little more than give Republicans access to data useful in the short term to identify voters.

"The Republican Party in Texas is deeply divided, with a radical minority driving the agenda of the more moderate majority," said the consultant, Kelly Fero. "The same focus on divisive issues that Rick Perry and his partisans have used in general elections is now dividing their own house in primary elections."

Fero referred to a report last week by Capitol Inside — a political Web site that chronicled intraparty efforts to target and oust independent Republican House members in the party primary next March.

"I think that the whole Proposition 2 thing from Perry's perspective and the people around him was nothing but a taxpayer-funded exercise to gather data to boost the Republican Party database in advance of next year's election," Fero said.

I've never liked when politicos accuse the other side of bad faith. First, I don't think it's very effective in scoring political points. Second, I think it's far less frequent than the charges suggest.

"But it's our job to recontact people that haven't voted in the Republican primary but who voted in that election and ask them where they stand in the governor's race and then communicate with them," [Perry pollster Mike] Baselice said.

"They could be Perry supporters, but we have to work that list and dissect it and contact the voters and find out for sure," he said.

...

"The more people who vote, the happier I am. I have great confidence in the people of Texas," [Strayhorn] said. Strayhorn spokesman Mark Sanders said he could not elaborate.

I've been surprised at Strayhorn's silence to say anything about Prop 2. She's never expressed support of it, to my knowledge. And Comptroller Strayhorn isn't known for her hesitance to give her views on issues. Certainly Prop 2 is identified with Perry, but this is an issue that is overwhelmingly favored by those who will vote in the Republican primary.

That would seem to suggest that Strayhorn either did not support Prop 2 or that she hopes to draw disaffected Democrats and swing voters into the Republican primary to vote for her. If she didn't support Proposition 2, then it was wise for her to refrain from saying so. If she's hoping to draw non-traditional Republican primary voters into voting for her in March, then I think she's based her campaign on a flawed strategy. As I've said before, we have a word for candidates whose strategy is turnout: losers. It is a very rare candidate indeed who is able to transcend politics and draw people to change their voting habits. So far, Strayhorn does not appear to be that candidate.

Posted by Evan @ 11/13/05 03:05 AM | Comments (0)

12 November 2005

Books on the sidebar

I've added some book recommendations on the sidebar. If you click through from here and buy them I get some sort of commission from Amazon.

Here's a short blurb for why I liked each:

The Path to Power: Robert Caro's traces LBJ's early years. Caro simply writes the best biographies I've ever read, and this is his finest hour.

The Ambition and the Power: An account of the rise and fall of House Speaker Jim Wright in the 80's. Barry had special access "on background" to Wright after he ascended to Speaker of the House and he produces a scintillating profile of the Texan from Fort Worth.

Mr. Chairman: Power in Dan Rostenkowski's America: Rostenkowski is a fascinating character and provides a case study in urban Democratic machines. I just finished this book.

Moneyball: It took baseball general managers how long to figure out that walks were much more important than traditional baseball statistics indicated? I figured that out when I was 8. Sometimes it's amazing how difficult it is for the "experts" to see past the conventional wisdom. The lesson for politics ought be self-evident.

The Rise of Southern Republicans: Earl and Merle Black are the preeminent Southern politics scholars. The book is a scholarly yet readable study of how Republicans supplanted Democrats as the power in the South. Dr. Earl Black was one of my favorite professors at Rice and his classes got to read drafts of chapters long before this book was published in 2003. Black was also my senior thesis advisor, when I wrote about Democratic gubernatorial resurgence in the 1997 and 1998 Deep South [a 3-2 GOP advantage switched to a 4-1 Dem advantage].

UPDATE: For some reason, the top of this post is being cut off in Internet Explorer (though not in FireFox). These blurbs are my explanation of the books I added to the sidebar. I think I'll rotate the books I put up there every month or two, and try to balance the books on Texas politics with other stuff. I get a cut from Amazon if you buy the books by clicking through this site.

I wouldn't mind making a few pennies from this site, after all.

Posted by Evan @ 11/12/05 06:35 PM | Comments (2)

"Strayhorn's campaign quiet"

Lee McGuire -- KVUE:

There are just 102 days before polls open in the race for governor, but Governor Rick Perry's main challenger hasn't said much lately.

Comptroller Carole Keeton Strayhorn has been relatively quiet since launching her campaign in June.

Strayhorn has a lot of money in her campaign war chest, but lately, many political observers have noted that her momentum seems to be dwindling, just as Governor Perry is picking up steam.

On a sweltering summer day five months ago, the state's republican comptroller turned months of speculation into reality and ran full speed ahead at incumbent republican Rick Perry.

But aside from some radio ads, Strayhorn's campaign has barely made a peep since then. Perry has compiled an impressive list of endorsements, including the State Association of Firefighters, the Texas Public Employees Association and the Teamsters.

Strayhorn has scored no big endorsements.

Perry has also pulled off some political coups, including placing potential democratic opponent John Sharp at the head of a school finance reform team.

I'd be happy if she started advertising her campaign on GoogleAds, so that maybe I could earn a few pennies out of this blog.

Posted by Evan @ 11/12/05 03:27 PM | Comments (3)

11 November 2005

Gubernatorial primaries poll

Two polls done for the Texas Credit Union League, 10/24-10/26:

A Voter/Consumer Research (R) poll; surveyed 400 TX GOP primary voters; margin of error +/- 4.9%.

GOP GOV Primary Matchup
Perry 61%
Strayhorn 26%
Undec/Oth 13%

Fav/Unfav
Perry 79%/18%
Strayhorn 50 /25

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Hamilton Beattie & Staff poll; surveyed 403 TX Dem primary voters; margin of error +/- 4.9%

Dem GOV Primary Matchup
Bell 28%
Alvarado 15%
Undec/Oth 57%

Posted by Evan @ 11/11/05 03:03 PM | Comments (3)

10 November 2005

Friedman opening Fort Worth office

Kinky Friedman is opening a satellite office outside of the main Austin campaign office.

Posted by Evan @ 11/10/05 10:16 AM | Comments (0)

Column on Radnofsky

Here is Todd Gillman's DMN column about Radnofsky which prompted The Hotline reference.

Posted by Evan @ 11/10/05 01:42 AM | Comments (1)

School finance delays

Gardner Selby's new Statesman column is up with a rumor about why we don't have a school finance ruling:

The Texas Supreme Court was expected to rule on the legality and adequacy of public school funding by Oct. 1, a deadline set by a Travis County state district judge last year that has since been stayed with the case now under appeal.

According to the Midland Reporter-Telegram, Chief Justice Wallace Jefferson told an Austin audience Sept. 9 the court would try to meet the original deadline.

Nine weeks later, with the court locked on pause, a University of Texas audience heard a dramatic explanation for the stall: It's Gov. Rick Perry's politically advantageous strategy.

Paul Burka of Texas Monthly told an insider's conference on the 2006 elections last weekend that Perry has prevailed upon Jefferson to shelve the court's verdict until after party primaries March 7, sparing Perry and legislative candidates (especially incumbents) from having to hem and haw on how to please the court.

Houston lawyer David Thompson, representing school districts in the lawsuit, said he doesn't know how the court could sit on such a vital opinion.

"I don't put any stock in that," Thompson said.

Perry's press secretary, Kathy Walt, called the charge "absolutely untrue and irresponsible."

Jefferson said: "There has been no communication from the court, from any representative of this court, from any political organization, lobbyist or agent of the governor's office or employee who has communicated any request to or from me on school finance whatsoever."

Posted by Evan @ 11/10/05 01:37 AM | Comments (0)

09 November 2005

Radnofsky gets coverage from today's Hotline

Today's Hotline:

Atty. Barbara Ann Radnofsky (D) held a DC fundraiser 11/8, which her spokesperson estimated would raise about $30K. She was introduced by DNC vice-chair/Rep. Mike Honda (D-CA) and announced she was running "to make a positive change" in "extraordinary times." Asked to contrast herself to Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R), Radnofsky said Hutchison's votes have effectively said, "No more money is needed for veterans." She also denounced the senator's vote against restoring Medicaid cuts. Asked about abortion, Radnofsky said everyone's goal is to "target zero abortions. ... That's the common ground ... and I say that as a pro-choice woman who supports Roe V. Wade."
She acknowledged Dems have not done well in TX recently, but she said she's feeling a "sea change" even in rural TX during her travels. She described Hutchison's border security plans as "a wacky proposal ... a cynical approach," and noted Hutchison took a 2-term pledge in '94.
Senate Min. Whip Dick Durbin (D-IL) gave a warm closing speech, describing her as "an extraordinary person. The environment for Democrats is changing dramatically. People are looking for a new direction and new leaders." He said he's told Min. Leader Harry Reid (NV) and DSCC chair Chuck Schumer (NY) "to keep an eye on Texas." Radnofsky mentioned that Durbin has been her "champion" within the Dem caucus (Hotline reporting, 11/8).
Reid himself popped into the lobby "for about a minute," telling Radnofsky: "The people of Texas deserve better." Asked on his way out whether he thought she had a chance, he said: "Everybody has a chance. Bush's numbers are dropping like a rocket."
Hutchison: "I'm not worried. They have the right to support a Democratic candidate. I don't have any hard feelings at all." Cook Political Report's Jennifer Duffy "found it hard to envision a national tide strong enough to unseat her." Duffy: "I feel like I'm watching a hurricane that's out there at sea. If it's a Category 5, even people like Hutchison are in trouble, but 12 months out, it's hard to say how strong this is going to be" (Gillman, Dallas Morning News, 11/9).
Some of Radnofsky's bumper stickers read: "Tough Name, Smart Dame" (Hotline reporting, 11/8).

Posted by Evan @ 11/09/05 02:45 PM | Comments (0)

08 November 2005

George Strong predictions

George Strong has his predictions up on tomorrow's Texas elections.

Posted by Evan @ 11/08/05 12:52 AM | Comments (0)

Where is all this Perry and KBH ticket talk coming from?

Via Kevin and Alex, there's more rumors of Texans being candidates for national office. In this case, it's from an op-ed in a Pittsburgh newspaper.

Texas Gov. Rick Perry is steadfast about governing responsibly, which translates into consistently facing resistance when balancing fiscal policies with social concerns. His maverick approach to remaining true-blue has earned him a solid reputation with conservatives. Beltway-types look to him as perfect vice-presidential material, despite his disdain for elbow-rubbing.

U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, a fellow Republican, briefly considered running against Perry in 2006. Faced with a daunting primary against a truer Republican, she quickly backed down.

Kevin rightly points out that, "Hutchison probably would not have won a primary against Perry because of social issues, not fiscal issues." Both Kevin and Alex also criticize the spending of the recently adopted Texas budget.

So, where is this talk coming from? My guess on Perry would be Grover Norquist, as it sounds like something he'd say. Norquist is something akin to the Karl Rove of the center-right coalition. He's a grand strategist, but he's the sort who likes to encourage and talk up officeholders he likes.

Rick Perry will not be on the Republican ticket in 2008. He hasn't even shown any interest in running for president. Also, my guess is that Perry will be glad to make some money in 2010, when his next term will be up if he's re-elected. He'd be way behind if he were to be considering running. Plus, running for president is now a multi-year affair. If you don't know for sure that you're running, then you're not running. You really have to have the proverbial "fire in the belly" to run for president.

Perry won't be a VP pick. What would Perry add to a ticket? Texas will go for the Republican candidate whether he is on the ticket or not. Further, he does not have the benefit of being a woman or minority.

The same is true for Kay Bailey Hutchison. She's not running for president. She could potentially be a vice presidential nominee, but is also unlikely. She doesn't bring a swing state's electoral votes with her. She's pro-choice and as such would be a problem for any Republican nominee. There's a reason that Dick Cheney is vice president now and not Tom Ridge.

It's also hard to see how either KBH or Perry would win a nomination if they were to run. It'd be very difficult for a Texan to be president after 8 years of another Texan.

Posted by Evan @ 11/08/05 12:34 AM | Comments (3)

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