Rick Perry vs World

12 December 2006

CD23

With one of 267 precincts in on the state's website, Henry Bonilla leads Ciro Rodriguez 196-97

Early voting is up in Bexar County. Rodriguez leads in San Antonio's early voting 56-44. I haven't checked to see what is expected in SA, but that doesn't strike me as a good sign for Bonilla.

With 67% in, it's Ciro 57 and Bonilla 43. It's quite possible that Bonilla-friendly boxes are still out, so it may not be over yet. Still, it doesn't look good.

If it's not over, it's close.

Posted by Evan @ 12/12/06 08:07 PM | Comments (0)

11 December 2006

Ex post, we decided before the event.

The Hill mentions Tom DeLay's new blog.

Can someone explain this part to me?

The site was developed and set to launch before the Nov. 7 elections, but the Republicans' heavy midterm losses prompted DeLay to alter the concept to "reflect the need for Republicans to change course."

After reading this paragraph about 10 times, I think the article's author conflated two independent events. But I'm still not sure.

Posted by Evan @ 12/11/06 02:06 PM | Comments (0)

10 December 2006

Rumors you could see coming a mile away

Isiah Carey posts a rumor I find very unlikely:

Have heard from 2 sources at different locations in the state that Gov. Perry will take the job at A&M recently vacated.

The rumors, they are aflyin'. It was only a matter of time until the rumors started, with the job open at A&M. But I just think there's no way Perry would dare leave right after re-election, even if he wanted to.

I checked the veracity of the rumor with a source very close to Perry. This person strongly denied that there was any truth to the rumor.

Posted by Evan @ 12/10/06 10:15 PM | Comments (0)

Saenz to lobby

Gardner Selby brings us some tidbits:

Luis Saenz, who directed Gov. Rick Perry's re-election campaign, plans to work as a lobbyist.

Clients are yet to be determined, Saenz said Tuesday, but he'll be renting office space near the Texas Capitol that is occupied by lobbyists including Reggie Bashur, Cliff Johnson and others.

Saenz, 39, joined Perry's campaign in December 2004 after resigning as the state's deputy secretary of state.

Because he hasn't worked for Perry's state office in more than a year, he's probably not subject to Perry's policy barring former gubernatorial aides from lobbying him for a year after they leave his employment.

.....

[Dean] Barkley [former campaign manager for Kinky Friedman], reached by telephone on an East Coast swing, said he's hunting for a way to continue in politics — maybe by helping an independent run for president in '08.

"I would like to stay in politics if I can find a way to make a living at it," he said.

The man is a former US Senator from Minnesota after all. Unfortunately, that Friedman campaign could've been run much better. The question is whether that's the candidate's fault or the adviser's fault.

Posted by Evan @ 12/10/06 10:06 PM | Comments (0)

Wouldn't sound nearly as good on a bumper sticker

Democratic Connecticut Senator Chris Dodd, talking about a potential quixotic prez bid:

I honestly believe we're in one of those moments where experience matters. I'm half-tempted to steal Kinky Friedman's slogan for his gubernatorial race in Texas. I'm saying this somewhat facetiously, but I love this slogan down there, and it was, 'How hard can this job be?'

If he's going to steal it, he might want to get the wording right. Friedman's version was much pithier.

Posted by Evan @ 12/10/06 10:01 PM | Comments (0)

Tom DeLay, blogger

US News' Washington Whispers:

Tom DeLay's back, this time on the Internet. Friends tell us that the powerful former House majority leader, dubbed the "Hammer" for his tough persuasion tactics, this week unveils TomDeLay.com, where he'll blog-DeLay's Daily-on newsy issues and build a coalition he's calling Grassroots, Action, and Information Network. Sources said the right-leaning Texan will give GAIN members insider information on the conservative movement and urge them to step in on key issues. And Democrats need not apply: His site will have a way to filter them out.

Erm, what exactly will that filter be?

Posted by Evan @ 12/10/06 09:55 PM | Comments (0)

07 December 2006

CD23 digest

1. The DCCC has decided to play. Via Kuff, here's what Swing State Project reports the DCCC has been doing on the independent expenditure front:

11/29: $163k (media buy and ad production)
12/01: $43k (direct mail), $9k (media buy and ad production)
12/02: $16k (phonebanking)
12/04: $42k (direct mail), $9k (ad production)
12/06: $497k (media buy), $785 (phonebanking), $91k (direct mail)

2. SurveyUSA shows the race as Bonilla 53 - Rodriguez 46. Only 1% undecided? Hmm. 471 Likely Voters, margin of error +/- 4.6%, 12/1-12/3. The crosstabs show some interesting things:

1. Bonilla has 94% of the GOP vote, while Rodriguez has 89% of the Dem vote, and edges Bonilla 51-48 among independents.

2. Bonilla beats Rodriguez 70-30 among Anglos, but among Hispanics, flip it to get 72-27 Rodriguez. However, the poll weights (I believe it's weighted, anyway) Anglo turnout to 59% of the electorate, and Hispanics at 36%.

3. The poll asks who they voted for on election day. 50% say Bonilla, which is correct, of course. But 30% say Rodriguez, which is substantially more than he actually got on election day.

The sample's result is from before Bonilla launched his recent attacks on Rodriguez.

It'll be interesting to see how much money the House committees decide to spend on turnout.

Posted by Evan @ 12/07/06 08:25 PM | Comments (0)

04 December 2006

Daily CD23 runoff digest

1. WOIA San Antonio is reporting:

Republican Congressman Henry Bonilla made some bold allegations about his Democratic opponent Ciro Rodriguez on Monday.

Bonilla claims Rodriguez has ties to Islamic extremists and known terrorists. The allegations were brought forth at a news conference held Monday afternoon by Congressman Bonilla and former FBI Assistant Special Agent In Charge Al Ortiz.

Both Bonilla and Ortiz said a former close aid of Rodriguez has "worked as a political consultant and public relations director for several islamic organizations with known ties to terrorists.

They added Rodriguez received $350 in campaign contributions in 1998 from a man convicted of money laundering, and that Rodriguez co-sponsored legislation that Bonilla said would free convicted terrorrists.

When asked if he believes Rodriguez is a terrorist supporter, Bonilla replied, "We are just presenting facts today. They are irrefutable because they've been reviewed over and over again. This is an issue about dangerous judgment, that went on inside a Congressional office and it up to the voters to decide."

News 4 WOAI contacted Rodriguez's campaign officials. They said they needed to fully review the allegations before responding.

I'm fascinated that they aren't denying/parrying in some way. That's pretty...unusual.

2. KENS 5 News:

The runoff election for the Congressional District 23 seat was expected to bring out only hardcore voters, but early numbers show the race is an important one to many San Antonio residents.

There's no real way to compare the turnout to previous races, because at least as far back as anyone remembers, Bexar County never had to have a runoff election after the general election.

Over the weekend, more than 3,200 people showed up to vote on the first two days of early voting. Also, over 4,000 ballots have been mailed to the Bexar County Elections office.

3. Kay Bailey was in town for Bonilla:

Friday, Republican Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison visited San Antonio to attend a get-out-the-vote rally for Mr. Bonilla, who said it's important for as many voters as possible to know that he has "one more round to go."

"Most people think the election is over," Ms. Hutchison told a group of Bonilla supporters. "We must remember what matters in this election. ... It is the people of this district getting out and voting."

She didn't mention that Bonilla needs to win this race to keep his dream alive of succeeding Hutchison as United States Senator from the state of Texas.

Posted by Evan @ 12/04/06 08:46 PM | Comments (0)

03 December 2006

SAEN coverage

The San Antonio Express-News is the big voice in CD23's runoff between Republican Henry Bonilla and Democrat Ciro Rodriguez. Of course, there's also a huge geographic portion of the district that isn't in a major media market.

The SAEN's editorial board offers a relatively luke-warm endorsement of Henry Bonilla

Meanwhile, columnist Carlos Guerra has been echoing Democratic talking points, tying Bonilla to DeLay and in calling Republicans names for the election specifics.

Posted by Evan @ 12/03/06 08:20 PM | Comments (0)

National Dems and CD23

Gary Martin, SAEN:

Speaker-designate Nancy Pelosi and other House leaders are pouring thousands of dollars into Ciro Rodriguez's bid to unseat Rep. Henry Bonilla and expand a Democratic majority in Congress.
The help from Pelosi, D-Calif., comes after Texas Democrats and the Congressional Hispanic Caucus pledged cash to Rodriguez and his uphill fight against a better-funded Bonilla.

"The speaker-designate has made a personal decision to get involved in this race," said Drew Hammill, a Pelosi spokesman in Washington.

Hammill said help to Rodriguez would be "largely a financial involvement," but he didn't rule out a possible Pelosi appearance for the San Antonio Democrat who served eight years in Congress.

Rodriguez received $5,000 on Tuesday from a political action committee controlled by Pelosi, Federal Election Commission records show. He received a total of $48,350 in new contributions, including the $5,000 from Pelosi and at least $15,000 from other Congressional Democrats.

He also got $2,500 from the Texas Democratic Party.

As of now, this isn't a serious commitment by Pelosi or national Democrats to Ciro Rodriguez's campaign. It is perfunctory, at best.

What's missing from Martin's story: if national Democrats were actually committed to this race, they would be pouring millions through the DCCC into the San Antonio to El Paso district. The fact that Pelosi's PAC has given $5K is merely standard, and not very newsworthy. Perhaps Pelosi and national Democrats still plan to funnel millions into the district, but it seems unlikely at this stage of the game.

Posted by Evan @ 12/03/06 08:10 PM | Comments (0)

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