06 November 2012
My election prediction is...
...that I'm not going to make one. The pundits on both sides have been cheerleading, not analyzing. I simply don't think there's any reliable, data-driven forecast I can make that edges either way. I'm simply not confident about my ability to predict whether working-class white Ohioans will turnout to vote again for Obama. Clearly Romney wasn't exactly the best candidate for that, either.
It is true that Romney's floor is probably a bit higher than Obama's, in terms of electoral college votes. It's pretty unlikely that Obama can win Florida even in his victory scenarios.
On a slightly related note, as I've mentioned on Twitter: 538's model comes from the same mindset that caused the financial crisis. Obama is definitely not 80% likely to win, and that will be true even if he wins the electoral college by 100+ votes.
One more tangential note: it is amazing how much Americans want to give Obama every possible chance to succeed. He's gotten way more leeway than any other modern president, and that is true whether he wins or loses.
01 November 2012
Is Paul Sadler trying to lose by as much as possible?
Kay Bailey Hutchison's closing ad in the 2010 primary touted her near-unanimous editorial board endorsements:
Bill White's closing ad for the November 2010 election touted his near-unanimous editorial board endorsements:
If you look at the polling (primary here, general here), undecideds broke late for Rick Perry in both races. So the newspaper endorsements and accompanying TV ads certainly didn't hurt Rick Perry . . . and might have helped him.
So what is Paul Sadler doing? Sadler's closing TV ad touts his newspaper endorsements!
You can't make this stuff up.