My election prediction is...

...that I'm not going to make one. The pundits on both sides have been cheerleading, not analyzing. I simply don't think there's any reliable, data-driven forecast I can make that edges either way. I'm simply not confident about my ability to predict whether working-class white Ohioans will turnout to vote again for Obama. Clearly Romney wasn't exactly the best candidate for that, either.

It is true that Romney's floor is probably a bit higher than Obama's, in terms of electoral college votes. It's pretty unlikely that Obama can win Florida even in his victory scenarios.

On a slightly related note, as I've mentioned on Twitter: 538's model comes from the same mindset that caused the financial crisis. Obama is definitely not 80% likely to win, and that will be true even if he wins the electoral college by 100+ votes.

One more tangential note: it is amazing how much Americans want to give Obama every possible chance to succeed. He's gotten way more leeway than any other modern president, and that is true whether he wins or loses.

Posted by Evan @ 11/06/12 05:09 PM


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