13 April 2011

Texas Iconoclast

Kevin, Cory and I are launching Texas Iconoclast today. Come swing by and check it out.

The project was born out of some conversations that we had about what we felt was lacking on the Texas corner of the interwebs. I realized that most of my websurfing is to people who aggregate quality content, and we didn't feel that a very comprehensive site existed that does that for Texas politics. Some come close, but we figured we'd pool our resources and tag daily the best Texas politics content, with a bent towards the right.

Right now, we post every weekday morning at 9am, as well as have a sidebar "IconWire" for things that get updated throughout the day. The daily post sometimes gets small updates after that, including on the commentary. We edit each other's commentary, with some favoring snark and others less so, so it is still a little bit of a work in progress, but I've already found that Iconoclast to be on my short list to see what is good in Texas politics reading.

It's likely that most of my writing will migrate over to the Iconblog, where I put a post up on the FEC numbers to date.

Posted by Evan @ 04/13/11 03:37 PM | Comments (1)

 
 


05 April 2011

¿Se Postulará para presidente Gobernador de Texas Rick Perry?

En una palabra, no. El gobernador de Texas, Rick Perry, no se postulará en el año 2012 para presidente, a pesar de las opiniones de los periodistas de Texas. Sí, se obsesionan todo los días con la idea, pero no está ubicado en ningún base solido. Ha dicho consistentemente que no tiene ganas nada postularse y que prefiere vivir en Texas que mudarse a Washington, DC. Algunos de sus consejeros políticos más importantes ya firmaron su lealtad a candidatos verdaderos.

Pero bueno, la clase política sigue hinchando. En este posteo, especulemos como se podría si, de hecho, tuviera ganas y como serían los señales que se pasa.

Primero, la campaña de 2012 todavia no se empieza. La ultima vez en 2008, la campaña ya estaba plenamente comenzado, y el Gobernador de Texas tiene bastante responsibilidades hasta el verano con su legislatura. Eso habría sido un gran problema para Rick Perry si hubiera querido postularse... o así fue el pensamiento, pero ahora que ya sabemos que la campaña empieza tarde, Perry no tiene el problema. Hay una apertura que no parecía posible hace unos meses.

Segundo, Perry ya está el líder actual de la Asociacion de Gobernadores Republicanos (RGA). El decidió hacerlo -- es un trabajo que se obliga recaudar fondos mas que nada -- y no puede postularse mientras sigue el líder del RGA. Por supuesto, aunque hace bastantes meses que Perry decidió y asumió el puesto, los periodistas Texanos siguen chismeando que Perry quiere postularse. Pero, igual, puede renunciar facílmente, aunque eso no se vería tan bien. Si realmente él hubiera pensado en postularse, entonces no habría tomado la posición.

Tercer, si sus consejeros decidan renunciar su candidato, es un buen señal que el gobernador cambió su opinion y se postula.

Y si pasó eso, Perry tendría algunas ventajas, pero mas probable que las desventajas las sobrepesan. Las ventajas son que combina valores tradicionales con apoyo a la libertad economica sin estar identificado más con uno que el otro que le da a él la posibilidad a ganar votos de los dos lados mas grandes de la derecha norteamericana. También el sirvió como militar. Los primeros estados de la campaña primaria de los Republicanos se necesita todo esto. El calendario de la primaria le sirve mas a Perry que a muchos otros candidatos. También tiene un red extensivo para recaudar fondos. Pero, tiene la gran desventaja que George W. Bush es Texano. Y aunque la pasión en contra de Bush ya ha tranquilizado bastante, es bastante difícil pensar que el país esta listo para otro Texano. En 2016, sí, pero por ahora, no.

Y eso probablemente es la palabra final de todo. Nadie piensa que Estados Unidos está listo tener otro presidente Texano. Y aun si no fuera la verdad, el hecho que todos piensan que sea verdad...lo hace la verdad.

Finalmente, sería interesante que se postulara Rick Perry. Él esta firme en el tema de la seguridad de la frontera con México, pero lo hace con comentarios en contra del terrorismo y contra los narcotraficantes. No soportó un ley igual a la de Arizona, y de hecho firmó legislación que permite inmigrantes ilegales (o sin documentos, como quiera) que viven en Texas ir a las universidades públicas de Texas por el precio de los Texanos (Norteamericanos de otros estados pagan doble). Algunos piensan que el manejó bien el tema en la campaña de 2010 y puede ser un modelo para el partido Republicano a nivel nacional.

Mil disculpas por todos los errores. Yo sé el Español solo al extento que mi esposa Latina me quiere enseñar. jaja. Les agradezco que me corrigen.

Posted by Evan @ 04/05/11 06:06 PM | Comments (0)

 
 


Texas Senate Q1 FEC Fundraising Expectations

So it's now April 5th, and we have yet to hear any of our Texas Senate candidates trumpeting their fundraising results for the Q1, which ended March 31.

Why the wait?
Are they keeping quiet because none had a stellar fundraising quarter, as a friend postulated yesterday? There's certainly the possibility of that. With 5 candidates in the race, it's harder for one person to raise an eye-opening sum. And certainly there are plenty of donors and fundraisers who want to wait and see how much money the candidates could raise on their own. Who is viable and who isn't? And many won't necessarily decide after Q1 numbers, lots will probably wait for the end of the session and/or for Q2 fundraising numbers to determine how vulnerable Dewhurst looks.

Nonetheless, my guess is that the candidates let their staffs rest for the weekend after the fundraising blitz before the FEC deadline. I assume we'll see numbers soon, as the candidates can't hide from them. If they really wanted to bury the numbers, getting them in for Monday's news cycle would have gotten them blanketed under the HB1 coverage.

Things to watch for

1. Who won -- Leppert, R. Williams or a surprise? Out of the five candidates -- Elizabeth Ames Jones, Ted Cruz, Tom Leppert, Michael Williams and Roger Williams -- most people think Tom Leppert is the frontrunner to have raised the most. If not, then probably Roger Wiliams. Roger Williams has been in the fundraising game for a long time, but as former CEO and Dallas Mayor, Leppert should be able to make some easy sales among the Dallas business community.

2. Michael Williams v Ted Cruz. The knock on the former Railroad Commish is that he couldn't raise the money. Can he? Particularly key: if Ted Cruz raises more money than Michael Williams, there are some M. Williams admirers who will hop on the Ted Cruz bandwagon. This is particularly key because Jim DeMint and other national conservatives will be looking at these numbers.

3. EAJ. Most folks I talk to don't think Elizabeth Ames Jones has a path to victory. I don't see one either, and I've heard the least from her campaign by a good margin over the past couple months. Yet she does have two key possible sources of early money: the energy community and San Antonio. As the daughter of a successful wildcatter and after a few years on the Railroad Commission, she should have a pretty solid network of energy explorers. And as the only candidate from San Antonio, she should be in a good spot to tap Alamo Heights.




Getting out of the gate is only part of the horserace

This is just the early money. It largely measures the base of support with which the candidates started the campaign. Future fundraising numbers reflect more deeply the degree to which candidates are able to persuade people to jump on the friends and family bandwagon. Still, these numbers go a long way towards defining the prism through which many will see the race for the next 3 months.




FYI, I had zero contact with any campaigns about their numbers in writing this post.

Posted by Evan @ 04/05/11 12:12 PM | Comments (3)

 
 


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