Rick Perry vs World

13 September 2010

A fairly strange brag

A few hours after I posted about the TT's internet poll today, they tweeted:

New UT/TT poll: Libertarians polling 5% to 8% in marquee statewide races.

Put me down for the under, please. Libertarians aren't going to average 6.5% on election day. I'd be surprised if any made it to 5%.

If you know anything about online polls then you know that libertarians are precisely the type of voters likely to be oversampled by an internet poll. Historically, it's been true. Further it makes sense when you think about what demographic groups lare ikely to be self-selecting into online polls. So, making a point about how Libertarians are running hot in your internet poll compared to normal polls is...strange.

Posted by Evan @ 09/13/10 06:10 PM | Comments (0)

Internet polls

If you're interested in internet polls, the new TT/UT internet poll is out today.

Related: My criticism of internet polling.

Posted by Evan @ 09/13/10 05:09 AM | Comments (0)

12 September 2010

Sunday's thought

From the Economist:

[Mexico's National Action Party] even boasts an international reach, winning 57% of the expatriate vote in 2006.

57% > 35.9% of the vote that Calderon won nationwide. Of course, only about 50k Mexicans were eligible, and only 32k voted, so we should be careful when extrapolating. Still, it's worth noting, considering that most of those expats were probably in the US.

Posted by Evan @ 09/12/10 05:38 AM | Comments (0)

10 September 2010

Construing things after their own fashion

Burka writes:

I have always believed that Perry is running for national office. Why else would he run for a third term? More land deals? More budget cuts? Pick A&M's next football coach? Prepare for a fourth term in 2014? Been there, done that. He has done everything he can do here. The book is perfectly timed, right at the moment that the focus will shift from 2010 to 2012.

Even if I were to stipulate to all Burka's points, wouldn't they all point towards the idea that he's not running for president in '12? Why would a wannabe president get involved in A&M fights that can only make enemies, not friends?

As for the book release timing, wouldn't the publisher pick a time that maximizes sales?

Posted by Evan @ 09/10/10 11:22 PM | Comments (0)

09 September 2010

A TV rec

I'm trying to post something once a day, and I don't have time for anything substantive today.

So instead I'll recommend a TV series: Underbelly. It's an Australian mafia drama that follows the gangland wars of Melbourne from 95-2005 or so. Obviously you could make some comparisons to the Sopranos, but I think they were trying to tell the story of what happened more than they were trying to develop characters and make art.

Still, for something interesting, and for awesome accents, recommended.

Posted by Evan @ 09/09/10 11:16 PM | Comments (0)

08 September 2010

PPP's new ballot test

PPP, 9/2-9/6
538 likely voters, +/- 4.2%
Perry 48
White 42

PPP's last poll in June had the race tied at 42-42 while other pollsters showed a substantial spread. So a +6 Perry lead in PPP is much more favorable for Perry than a +6 would be in Rasmussen. This might be because PPP tends to show favorable results for Democratic candidates so far this cycle. PPP is a Dem polling shop, but certainly a reputable pollster (similar to HRC, which is a GOP shop).

PPP had Perry's job approval upside down at 39/50, while they had White at 44/29.

PPP also had David Dewhurst beating Linda Chavez-Thompson 54-34 in the Lt Gov race.

Posted by Evan @ 09/08/10 05:11 PM | Comments (0)

Exclusive numbers from the Hill Research Consultants poll

I asked Hill Research Consultants about who their sample was for the Texas Watch poll everyone is talking about. It appeared that they had used a voter list, but in the crosstabs respondents were described as "likely voters;" however I hadn't seen any voter screen in the questionnaire.

David Benzion from HRC got back to me and verified that they were using a voter list from the past three elections. He also provided some new numbers.

Among 2006 voters (n=395, MOE +/-4.93%)
Perry: 44%
White: 43%
Undecided: 11%

Also, using Hill's proprietary most likely voter model (n=441, MOE +/- 4.67%)
Perry: 45%
White: 43%
Undecided: 11%

I'll pass these along without comment as more data points. My comments haven't changed much from yesterday's post.

Posted by Evan @ 09/08/10 04:40 PM | Comments (0)

Reading the polling tea leaves

Hill Research Consultants, commissioned by Texas Watch.
600 respondents, 8/25-8/29
Perry 42
White 41
Unsure 14

Poll "intentionally allowed respondents to express uncertainty." It also followed a question about current residence and a right direction/wrong track question with the ballot test question. That gets people thinking about their current circumstances and probably using the partisan brain less than it would be at the ballot box. It also finds party ID at only +4 Republicans, which seems a bit low for Texas in 2010. Moreover, it had Perry winning independents at +4. It's pretty hard to see how Bill White wins if Perry is winning independents.

As Kevin Whited said, if Hill were really trying to do a predictive snapshot of the race, you would think that "he would have designed a much different poll."

Zogby, commissioned by Dem moneyman Bernard Rapoport (h/t to Cory Crow and Chron)
803 LVs, 8/24-8/28
Perry 44.4
White 40.6

As I've said repeatedly on here for the last few years, Zogby is the reputable pollster I trust the least. I don't like mentioning polls I can't see crosstabs on, and I can't find them anywhere, including Zogby's site.

The Back to Basics ad calling Perry a coward for not debating ran on 8/24.

In short: underdog candidates love to see polls released showing the race tightening, and that's no exception here, so that's good for Bill White. But I don't yet see anything that makes me terribly uncomfortable taking the over on +7 Perry.

Posted by Evan @ 09/08/10 05:31 AM | Comments (0)

07 September 2010

If you missed the article on Bill White's business career by SC Gwynne and Gary Jacobson in the DMN, I suggest you read it. It was a good, solid piece.

Three years into his tenure as CEO, White was starting to make a name for himself, buying and selling companies and reaping large returns – averaging 80 percent per year.

Right on. Betting on energy spikes can be very profitable. Even so, I bet that 80% figure involves undiscounted cashflow multiples or internal rates of return that overstate the effective return.

Interestingly, lawfirm mogul Susman thinks Bill White was forumshopping for a place to run for office:

His former law firm boss Steve Susman says that early in his career, White and his wife bought a house in a distinctly unfashionable area in northwest Houston.

When Susman asked him why, "Bill said he had done his research, and if he was running for office someday, it was a good demographic area for him." This same tendency to calculate and plan years in advance was evident at Wedge, too, when he would travel to Spain during summers for immersion courses in Spanish – clearly, in retrospect, anticipating a political career.

Asi se explica el acento? Quizas que haya un toque madrileno. A mi me cae raro, pero quien soy yo para juzgar un acento extrano?

Posted by Evan @ 09/07/10 09:19 PM | Comments (0)

Bill White's tax returns

Wayne Slater blog post:

Rick Perry's campaign has asked why Democratic challenger Bill White had no taxable income in 1995, his last year as deputy energy secretary in the Clinton administration. White has not released his income tax returns for his years at the Energy Department. But his campaign has told the Dallas Morning News that while White had taxes withheld from his $133,000 salary in 1995, the amount was offset by losses starting an energy business.

Perry spokesman Mark Miner says he wants to see the returns -- and until White releases them, Perry will refuse to debate his Democratic opponent. White has released his tax returns for his six years as mayor of Houston. The campaign has also provided The News with a spreadsheet of details about his taxes during his years as deputy energy secretary. Miner says that's not good enough: "The word of Bill White's spokesperson is not sufficient when it comes to the contents of Bill White's hidden tax returns.

Maybe I'm seeing this wrong, but doesn't Bill White undermine his own case for not releasing his tax returns when he releases the topline figure? This means he has the tax returns, he knows exactly where they are, he's even gone back and released the topline numbers of his taxes...but he hasn't actually released the details? That's strange. If there's nothing there, wouldn't it take 30 seconds extra work to click "attach" and then send them to the press?

Truthfully, I didn't expect that Perry's campaign would get anything out of the initial tax records request. I figured they were just seeing if White would make a rookie mistake and not release his tax returns so that they could make an issue out of it. White did screw it up for a couple months, but once he released them it became clear that Perry's team had done their research and had an idea of what the tax returns would show (BTEC).

Posted by Evan @ 09/07/10 06:11 PM | Comments (3)

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