Rick Perry vs World

21 August 2005

School finance is dead. Does it matter?

School finance is dead. Does it matter for the folks who were voting on it? Does it matter what the Supreme Court rules?

(sidenote: Am I the only one who is surprised that gambling never came up in the special sessions? Strayhorn supports it, so Perry is covered politically for the priamry. It's a relatively pain-free revenue stream for legislators, but maybe anti-gambling forces loomed forcefully in the upcoming GOP primary.)

If the Supreme Court rules that the Legislature must fix school finance, then that will be a much easier bill to pass. A Supeme Court ruling will give the legislature a clear idea of what has to be changed, per the Texas Supreme Court. Legislators will have a pass at home ("I had to vote for the bill. The Supreme Court made me.") This is the solution that Speaker Craddick has favored from the beginning, as he has the hardest assignment: pass a school finance bill among 150 Reps. in the House who all feel differently.

I've been a little skeptical from the beginning that a school finance bill would pass. It's hard to do, and Craddick has been public with his reluctance. Perry preferred to very aggressively pursue passing school finance, pushing for negotiations and calling special sessions.

If the Supreme Court finds in favor of the defendants, then that will leave us in the current position: the many political forces are too strong and blow in too many different directions in order to find enough votes to pass a school finance bill. It may not be perfect, but it's the political will of the people as reflected in the current Texas Legislature.

So here are my current thoughts on who is hurt by the failure of the legislature to change school finance in the past few sessions.

Democrats in the House and Senate: Probably not. They're the minority; most of them are in safe seats.
Republicans in the Senate: Who is vulnerable because it failed? They're all safe.
Republicans in the House: Maybe some are in non-safe seats who might have to worry. Quite a few ran in the 2002 primary by saying that they could fix/get rid of Robin Hood. They might be vulnerable. But the powers of incumbency are strong, so I doubt it. Of course, some may be vulnerable because of their votes on particulars of the school finance bills, but I don't think the failure in and of itself will adversely affect many of them individually.
Tom Craddick: He's safe in Midland, and I doubt that the rumblings out of the House about changing speakers are serious. But then, leadership contests are hard to guess at from the outside.
David Dewhurst: I've got a hard time seeing Dewhurst held responsible by voters. Who holds the Lite Guv responsible for much of anything?
Rick Perry: There's certainly frustration around the state right now, and voters tend to aim anger at executives more than legislators. Voters get upset at Congress or the Legislature, but stay happy with their own congressman or representative. Whether voter frustration will actually hurt Perry is two-fold: one) will voters' anger dissipate in a few months?; and two) how will voters react when Perry responds via paid media?

Rick Perry took a gamble by pushing so hard on school finance: he's gambling that voters will forgive him more for pushing school finance (calling special sessions, etc) than they will be upset at him for failing to get a deal. By calling more special sessions, he temporarily is identified with the failure of the legislature to pass school finance. Still, Perry knew that he'd be attacked if he didn't get a deal, so he chose to try to get one.

Back to my two questions: will voters' anger dissipate? I don't know. It often does. Once the legislature stops meeting, the lack of a school finance deal isn't news. Chris Bell, John Sharp and Kinky Friedman can send out multitudes of press releases, the issue will undeniably fade to some degree. When it isn't in the headlines everyday, it's tough for voters to stay as mad .

Second question: how will voters reaction when Perry responds via paid media? Right now, Perry is identified more strongly than anyone or anything else (Craddick, Dewhurst, Legislature, Democrats, etc) with the failure of school finance. But, since newspapers cover the day-to-day news, they haven't really covered Perry's response: that he pushed this Legislature as hard as he could. Whether you think he actually pushed the Legislature as hard as he could isn't really relevant: he'll probably make a compelling case in his TV commercials.

And of course, the preceeding is simply over whether the issue hurts Perry. It doesn't address whether it hurts him enough to make him truly vulnerable. As of yet, I haven't seen any indication that would indicate that any announced or rumored candidate has a significant chance to beat Rick Perry. Carole Strayhorn would be the most likely as of now, and I think that she's currently a longshot. So far, the professionals agree with me.

Other takes: RG Ratcliffe - Chronicle, Kelley Shannon - AP, Jason Embry -- Statesman

Posted by Evan @ 08/21/05 08:59 PM | Comments (0)

Jeff Fisher, Carole Strayhorn and maybe it'll be fun after all

Republican Party of Texas Jeff Fisher was quoted objecting to the Stayhorn campaign's strategy of reaching out to liberals and moderates outside the usual GOP primary electorate. Strayhorn campaign manager Brad McClellan found that objectionable. The entire quote which McClellan found objectionable was:

It's one thing when a candidate tries to invite like-minded conservative Democrats and independents to make a lasting commitment to the Republican Party. It's quite another to encourage liberals to vote in the primary like a "one-night stand."

McClellan sent State Republican Executive Committee (SREC) members a note saying that he "called the executive director of our Republican Party of Texas and demanded he publicly apologize for the inappropriate and degrading comment he made about Comptroller Carole Keeton Strayhorn, Republican candidate for Governor and my Mom."

Perry, not surprisingly, refused to comment, calling it "politics."

Seven SREC members (there are 62 total, 2 for each state senate district) replied to McCllean saying that they were "perplexed . . . about Comptroller Strayhorn's plan to undermine the integrity of the Republican primary. Like millions of grassroots Texas Republicans, we also have serious reservations that Comptroller Strayhorn wants liberal Democrats to choose Republican nominees for public office."

So who knows? I know I'm on record as saying this primary would be less fun without Kay Bailey Hutchison, but maybe it'll be fun after all.

Related: Rachel Toalson, SAEN

Posted by Evan @ 08/21/05 07:58 PM | Comments (0)

Friedman roundup

The New Yorker has a lengthy profile of Kinky Friedman in its newest issue. Reporter Dan Halpern follows candidate Friedman around on the trail, while detailing some of Friedman's bio and vulgar jokes.
In general, the profile is favorable, although candidates generally wouldn't like their ill-tempered rants getting out into the public domain. For example, saying this about your campaign contributors in front of a reporter is generally not smart:

"I'm sick of being a performing monkey," he said after a while. "I'm sick of these rich motherfuckers. But I'm also sick of people asking me if this is a joke. God damn it, I am serious. And they're going to see that I am, eventually." He paused, then added, "People are always misunderstanding each other. You can never think you have the last word on any human heart."

Meanwhile, Kinky won $45,612 playing a slot machine at Harrah's New Orleans. That's a dollar for every signature he nees to collect to get on the ballot.

Former KBH lawyer Dick DeGuerin has officially become one of Kinky's political advisers in the campaign.

Another Friedman supporter, Willie Nelson is holding a fundraiser on September 24th. For $5000 you can play 9 holes with Willie, Jesse Ventura, and have lunch with at Willies' ranch. Billy Joe Shaver will be on hand for music at lunch, which you can go to for just $1000. Bud Kennedy notes all this in a column at the FWST, but he doesn't seem to think much of Friedman's -- or a "sacrificial Democrat to be named later" -- chances.

Posted by Evan @ 08/21/05 07:34 PM | Comments (0)

20 August 2005

Politics, smart and otherwise

The AP picks up the story of Carl Basham, who was denied in-state tution to Austin Community College after a tour in Iraq with the Marines. Comptroller Strayhorn, smartly seeing a chance for favorable publicity, wrote a letter to the state higher education board asking that Basham be given in-state tuition.

Land Commish Jerry Patterson then found a waiver provision in state law, and helped Basham get waived into cheaper tuition.

Good for both of them.

Around the same time, Comptroller Strayhorn gave a speech to the Greater Houston Pachyderm Club which resulted in a headline of "Strayhorn says state has responsibility to immigrants."

I'm guessing that's not the headline that Carole Stayhorn and her campaign wanted from a significant speech.

Posted by Evan @ 08/20/05 07:35 PM | Comments (0)

When you fall behind...

it's sometimes quite a dilemma as to how to proceed.

Summarize the events of the past week in a longish post?

Backdate posts and pretend that you were up to speed the whole week?

Lots of different posts today?

I don't know. I do know that I have reading to do for law school, so I'm likely to want to blog rather than work.

UPDATE: Or I could just pretend that the last week never happened. Hmm.

UPDATE DOS: I decided to backdate.

Posted by Evan @ 08/20/05 01:47 PM | Comments (0)

17 August 2005

Sorry

Apologies for the lack of updates.

Chris Bell announced. Strayhorn's campaign is upset at the RPT exec director.

And I still don't have internet access at law school orientation. When I do, there will be updates, because there is nothing better to do.

UPDATE: If you come across this post later, you'll probably not understand. This is because I added posts later, and backdated them.

Posted by Evan @ 08/17/05 02:04 AM | Comments (1)

15 August 2005

Non Gov race notes

1. Gary Martin in the SAEN wrote a column on the legislation that Henry Bonilla proposed that would rename 16th St in DC after Ronald Reagan.

Martin's column isn't complimentary of Bonilla, but it's not terribly unfair either.

Bonilla doesn't have any constituents in DC. No one will get upset that will ever cast a ballot for or against him. But some people will definitely like that Bonilla has taken a stand to honor Reagan.

2. In the ongoing Love Field feud, Senator Hutchison has offered a compromise. She would allow "through ticketing" while keeping the flight restrictions at Love Field.

3. Tom DeLay was on hand as his foundation opened a 50 acre planned community for foster children. DeLay has a long history of working hard for foster kids, but you'd never know it from reading the newspapers.

Posted by Evan @ 08/15/05 06:40 PM | Comments (0)

13 August 2005

School finance dead, and it's Grover Norquist's fault

A few takes here.

Christy Hoppe from the DMN writes:

For three years, the pledge to lower property taxes and fix schools has splintered the Legislature, shredded its leaders and, for the $5 million cost of three special sessions, produced exactly nothing for taxpayers or schoolchildren.

But it has prompted state leaders to produce competing radio ads, denunciations of one another and enough posturing to turn a schoolyard squabble into a statewide embarrassment for Republicans � and that assessment comes from GOP stalwarts.

...

Many pollsters, politicians, consultants and civic leaders say that one central issue has caused the quagmire: the Republican no-new-taxes pledge. Funding schools, always a difficult task, and even the politically desirable effort to slash property taxes have been rendered all but impossible.

Thirty-five House members, including Speaker Tom Craddick, and four senators, all Republican, have signed a no-new-taxes pledge advanced by national anti-tax guru Grover Norquist. The governor has visited with Mr. Norquist on numerous occasions, even taking him on a retreat to the Bahamas.

Reading Hoppe's article, you might get the idea that raising taxes would be a political winner for Republican politicians. I don't think she's right.

Posted by Evan @ 08/13/05 07:18 PM | Comments (0)

Chris Bell announces

Chris Bell announced that he was running for governor with a speech in Austin. The full text is here.

Posted by Evan @ 08/13/05 06:08 PM | Comments (0)

Strayhorn announces local govt tax allocations

Comptroller Strayhorn announced $466 million that the state was turning over to local governments.

It's the sort of positive coverage across Texas that candidates like to see, eg Victoria and Lufkin.

Posted by Evan @ 08/13/05 05:44 PM | Comments (0)

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